Possible Missouri Valley Conference Expansion

[VUGrad1314]

https://www.racerfans.com/board/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=18401&sid=39bee5d80156b501579bfd50ac578e6a&start=20

Racer fans seem ready to join the MVC if and when an invite comes. One person in the linked thread has repeatedly stated that he believes their invite will come this month. That would be a little surprising to me since I find it hard to believe that anything would come out before the expansion committee meets in March. In any case if this guy is right, and Murray State's invite is coming soon, that means one of two things:

1. The MVC has reversed course and will accept an 11 team model. (unlikely) or
2. The MVC has found a suitable 12th member. Who could it be? My guess is it's either Belmont NKU or Milwaukee

Here's one hoping it's NKU because:

1. I won't have to drive over 200 miles to see Valpo play

2. I would love to see the reaction of certain WSU posters watching a school some WSU big shots laughed at leaping past the Horizon League to the Valley!

Like that guy who liked to stick out his chest around here claiming to be an insider even though he was always wrong?

[bigmosmithfan1]

I'm not one to necessarily pull the ladder up behind us, but the Valley needs to be smart about this - the only way they should expand to 12 is if it either guarantees more TV revenue (highly unlikely with any of the candidates mentioned) or puts the league into fairly certain multi-bid territory annually (also unlikely). If not, there's no reason to divide the pie 12 ways instead of 10.

Unless the powers that be know something the rest of us don't about either of the two issues above, expanding beyond 10 seems like a fool's errand right now.

[crusadermoe]

Hold out for another year until SLU takes an accurate look in the mirror at itself for competitiveness and geography.   Until they agree to be the 11th member of the MVC, I see no advantages to expanding the MVC for the others we are mentioning. 

SLU would be a win-win.  Let's say you are an athlete or the parent of an athlete considering SLU.   Do you want to travel East relentlessly and expensively?

Or would you prefer to drive 3 hours to see most D-1 basketball road games/events and see SLU in a hoops tournament in your hometown and possibly other conference events in a destination city?  Do you want to pay increasing tuition or see faculty layoffs so that athletes can travel east to high cost cities like NYC and Washington? 

[vuny98]

SLU is not happening... They will hold out for a Big East invite, as they probably should. With Creighton in the Big East now, SLU makes sense as an expansion. With their lack of recent success that may not happen for them but they wont be looking to move to MVC. Agree from a competitive and geographical aspect, MVC makes more sense, but if we were in their shoes we wouldn't be clamoring for a step down/lateral conference move.

[wh]

SLU is not happening... They will hold out for a Big East invite, as they probably should. With Creighton in the Big East now, SLU makes sense as an expansion. With their lack of recent success that may not happen for them but they wont be looking to move to MVC. Agree from a competitive and geographical aspect, MVC makes more sense, but if we were in their shoes we wouldn't be clamoring for a step down/lateral conference move.

SLU is clearly overrated (especially in their own minds). They have all of 3 NCAA appearances since 2000. The only time they were really good is Majerus' final year and the first 2 years under Crews (with Majerus' recruits). In the 4 years since, they are a combined 14-43 in the A-10 with an average 14th place finish. Butler beat them by 30 a month ago. They would be completely outclassed in the BE. What they are in reality is a bottomfeeding A-10 program trying to rebuild. That said, I think they would have a better chance of rebuilding in the MVC than the A-10, where they are hundreds of miles outside the conference footprint.  They should be considered.

As to Milwaukee, I picked up on a term a couple of days ago that fits their situation. Milwaukee is a shxthole program in a shxthole Athletic Dept. led by a shxthole A.D. in a shxthole conference. The MVC and shxthole Milwaukee could not be a bigger mismatch.

[VU75]

As to Milwaukee, I picked up on a term a couple of days ago that fits their situation. Milwaukee is a shxthole program in a shxthole Athletic Dept. led by a shxthole A.D. in a shxthole conference. The MVC and shxthole Milwaukee could not be a bigger mismatch.

Do you actually believe others respect comments like that?

[justducky]

As to Milwaukee, I picked up on a term a couple of days ago that fits their situation. Milwaukee is a shxthole program in a shxthole Athletic Dept. led by a shxthole A.D. in a shxthole conference. The MVC and shxthole Milwaukee could not be a bigger mismatch.

Do you actually believe others respect comments like that?

It was meant to be disrespectful to the UWM program and also wryly humorous. At the level he approached this, he was successful at both. If in the future he is sucker punched by some stranger who identifies himself as an insulted Milwaukee fan, I think wh is enough of a man that he would shake his head and wipe his jaw and say "point taken".

[VUGrad1314]

If SLU wanted the MVC, SLU would be in the MVC. If SLU is not in the MVC, the fault lies not with MVC leadership. They are indeed waiting on the Big East and could be waiting for awhile. If the decision is about basketball, they are likely last among all potential realignment candidates. I can't see them beating out VCU Dayton Rhode Island or Richmond on basketball merit alone. Their most significant advantage in the Big East's eyes is the very thing that is holding them back in the A10: Geography. They open a new and sizeable market to the conference, and neatly fill the gap between DePaul (Chicago) and Creighton (Omaha). Unfortunately for SLU, as a top 6 conference every year with a fat national TV contract, the Big East isn't interested--nor should they be--in diluting the quality of their basketball product solely for a new market. The move only really makes sense for the Big East if the addition also includes a strong national basketball brand  which SLU is not.

[bbtds]

Hold out for another year until SLU takes an accurate look in the mirror at itself for competitiveness and geography.   Until they agree to be the 11th member of the MVC, I see no advantages to expanding the MVC for the others we are mentioning. 

SLU would be a win-win.  Let's say you are an athlete or the parent of an athlete considering SLU.   Do you want to travel East relentlessly and expensively?

Or would you prefer to drive 3 hours to see most D-1 basketball road games/events and see SLU in a hoops tournament in your hometown and possibly other conference events in a destination city?  Do you want to pay increasing tuition or see faculty layoffs so that athletes can travel east to high cost cities like NYC and Washington? 

Take a look at SLU's roster

http://www.slubillikens.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=93215&SPSID=632633

Spring Valley, NY
Greensboro, NC
Columbus, OH
Orlando, FL
Queens, NY
Middletown, NY
Orangeburg, SC
Santiago, Dominican Republic

It would help their fanbase if the games were closer to home but they generally are not trying to help a St Louis based set of parents see their kid play. I agree that part of this is because they do play in an east based league.

[crusadermoe]

I certainly agree with all of the posts that predict SLU will not join us.   And I don't blame MVC leadership who I am certain has invited them numerous  times.  With each year SLU needs to increasingly consider its full financial and athletics picture as a university.  They may not be wise enough to do that.   On a basketball basis I might understand wishing and hoping on a star that they can land a Big East bid and its $.  But from a net revenue (gross minus costs) perspective I have to think that they would benefit from the move. 

They historically belonged to the Mo. Valley.  Though I know history is not a good basis to make a decision it could help them sell it to the faculty and to the St. Louis  community.   My theory is that both of those groups would applaud the move.  I have a hard  time thinking that their attendances will increase playing St. Bonaventure, VCU, Richmond and other teams not recognizable to the casual Midwest sports fan. Alternatively in the MVC,  they could draw alumni of rivals SIU, Mo State, Drake, Bradley to their home games and build rivalries since they likely have  high alumni populations in the St. Louis area.  And those alumni can enjoy that road trip to an attractive big league city.  The money argument needs to be shaped by realistic predictions and other revenue possibilities beyond the NCAA bids.

At  some point SLU needs to weigh the A-10 costs and likelihood of continuing to "wish"  they were an attractive Big East addition.  I advise the MVC to hold out for that day..perhaps for two more years.  Murray is a good add.  None of the others are good adds and Murray alone isn't worth goofing up the symmetry.

[bbtds]

Try using your argument on the Billikens.com message board.

http://www.billikens.com/forum/index.php?/forum/101-billikenscom-main-board/

They will lambaste you for even believing that the Billikens belong in the Missouri Valley, a conference that most SLU fans think they have long surpassed.

It would be like someone arguing to our message board that we should go back to the Horizon League because we fit better geographically there and have not been that successful in the Missouri Valley. We know our team will do better in the Missouri Valley in the future. SLU fans definitely think they will be good enough for the Big East and will get an invite there once their team improves. They have set their goals much higher. Thinking lower is not in their plans no matter what level their team is at the moment.   

BTW, SLU is still dealing with a sexual assault investigation about the basketball team that came out in September that many feel has affected the basketball team.

From: Office of the President <slu_announce@slu.edu>
Sent: Tuesday, September 26, 2017 12:45 PM
Subject: A Message from the President on Recent Sexual Assault Allegations

Dear members of the SLU community,

I write to provide some additional information about what the University is doing related to this weekend's report of on-campus sexual assaults. The Department of Public Safety has already issued a timely warning about the allegations.

On Sunday, Sept. 24, we were notified by a representative of the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department that three women, including two SLU students, reported they were sexually assaulted in an on-campus apartment by student athletes.

First, I want to say how deeply troubled I am by these allegations, which involve behavior that runs counter to our mission and values. SLU seeks to foster a safe and supportive atmosphere where students, faculty, clinicians, and staff can flourish in an inclusive environment that is free from harassment and harm. Sexual assault, misconduct and harassment of any kind have no place at our University.

St. Louis police are investigating the reports, and the University is cooperating fully with the police investigation.

The University has also launched its own investigation through its Office of Institutional Equity and Diversity. The University's Title IX coordinator will be working with an external investigative team — engaged by the University — which specializes in assisting colleges and universities with reports of sexual assault and misconduct. The Athletics Department is cooperating with all ongoing investigations and fully supports the University's processes.

Any community member with information about this matter should directly contact the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department at (314) 444-5385, SLU's Department of Public Safety at (314) 977-2376, or the University's Title IX Coordinator at (314) 977-3838. Additionally, any community member with questions about the University's policies regarding sexual violence may contact the Title IX Coordinator.

Our process will be conducted in a thorough, fair and impartial manner. And the University will continue to provide support to all of our students.

Sincerely,

Fred P. Pestello, Ph.D.
President

[bbtds]

This post yesterday on the SLU message board shows the sexual assault allegations are ongoing.

Posted 18 hours ago.
Not to mention all of Ford's comments about the emotions involved in the locker room. Something happened a week or two regarding the investigation process. Part of me thinks that they came up with a positive decision for the players, but the girl's lawyers likely appealed, effectively screwing the players for another 2 weeks because Fred wants to come across as supporting the women through 100% of the process.

(Fred is the SLU president, Fred Pestello)

They have three players that have been suspended by Coach Ford and are not playing.

[bbtds]

Here is the St Louis Post Dispatch's timeline of the facts in the SLU sexual assault of September 2017 case:

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/slu/billiken-beat/timeline-of-slu-s-title-ix-investigation-updated/article_4d1dbc63-1d6b-52aa-a044-c16b2a8b795a.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

[VU2014]

SLU isn't coming to the MVC even though they are better suited for this league for multiple reasons. They'll be waiting for that Big East invite for a while if ever at all.

We need to get SLU out of our heads as viable option.

It's probably going to come down to:
-Belmont
-Murray State
-Dakota Schools (They'd seem unlikely to me)
-UWM
-NKU
-UT Arlington

Valley Hoops Insiders wrote an article recently after talking to league sources and lists multiple schools but I think a lot of the schools he suggests everyone could get a look. Example he suggested SEMO could get a look. I sure hope not.

[bigmosmithfan1]

SLU isn't coming to the MVC even though they are better suited for this league for multiple reasons. They'll be waiting for that Big East invite for a while if ever at all.

We need to get SLU out of our heads as viable option.

It's probably going to come down to:
-Belmont
-Murray State
-Dakota Schools (They'd seem unlikely to me)
-UWM
-NKU
-UT Arlington

If that's the case, then I will quote the Billy Beane character in the movie Moneyball: "Then what in the hell are we talking about here?"

Look, there are some quality programs there, but there is no one who gets the MVC closer to perennial multi-bid status, nor brings enough cache to bring enough new TV revenue to offset splitting the meager pie 12 ways instead of 10. Until the dynamics of how tourney bids are distributed changes in meaningful way, this topic should be a non-starter until further notice by anyone around the league with a basic grasp of math.

(And I don't disagree with your take on SLU. Geographically, it would make a ton of sense. But Majerus tried to pound that angle when he was at SLU, at a time when the MVC was basically at parity with the A-10 in terms of tournament bids. And he got nowhere. We are not there anymore, and the presence of large east-coast markets in the A-10 surely means our TV deal isn't either. Until we can make the argument that the Valley is consistently the *better* conference, not just the closest one, I wouldn't expect SLU to have any interest).

[vu72]

SLU isn't coming to the MVC even though they are better suited for this league for multiple reasons. They'll be waiting for that Big East invite for a while if ever at all.

We need to get SLU out of our heads as viable option.

It's probably going to come down to:
-Belmont
-Murray State
-Dakota Schools (They'd seem unlikely to me)
-UWM
-NKU
-UT Arlington

Valley Hoops Insiders wrote an article recently after talking to league sources and lists multiple schools but I think a lot of the schools he suggests everyone could get a look. Example he suggested SEMO could get a look. I sure hope not.

I agree with tx that Tex Arlington is a totally non-factor in the Dallas market and bring zero to The Valley.  Obviously getting Belmont and Murray State or Belmont and NKU would be the top two and if we di get them it would literally kick The Ohio Valley to the curb. NKU is also Horizon's top team and would further move them into the "Lower Major" swamp.  SEMO?  Are you kidding me? They are currently #274 in the Sagarins.  St. Louis may think they have a future but they are a mess now.

[VUGrad1314]

SLU isn't coming to the MVC even though they are better suited for this league for multiple reasons. They'll be waiting for that Big East invite for a while if ever at all.

We need to get SLU out of our heads as viable option.

It's probably going to come down to:
-Belmont
-Murray State
-Dakota Schools (They'd seem unlikely to me)
-UWM
-NKU
-UT Arlington

Valley Hoops Insiders wrote an article recently after talking to league sources and lists multiple schools but I think a lot of the schools he suggests everyone could get a look. Example he suggested SEMO could get a look. I sure hope not.

I'll go one step further. This race comes down to:

Murray State (front-runner basically in)
Belmont (front-runner probably won't accept)
NKU (best possible add other than the private schools who are reluctant to join Still may not join because of relative youth of program and fragility of fanbase)
Milwaukee (sigh if we have to)
Dakotas good combo add but unlikely for a variety of reasons
I wonder if some unnamed but potentially sensible candidates  are added to this list before it's all said and done: Wright State UIC Oral Roberts

Wright State and NKU would be such a nice combo add if Belmont ever said yes and the MVC ever went beyond 12

[bigmosmithfan1]

Why would we want to battle 11 teams instead of 9 for a single tourney bid, much less 13 other teams? That seems like a bad strategy. Still waiting for someone to come up with an answer for why the MVC should voluntarily sign up for that.

[VUGrad1314]

That's such an easy argument to make when you're inside the bubble already but imagine we were in Murray State's shoes (a program that should be in the MVC but isn't) I bet your argument would be very different also I don't buy the premise that this is a one bid league Greater improvement by league members and better overall scheduling coupled with the addition of Murray State and Belmont or NKU or even potentially Wright State with Nagy on board (keep in mind they just beat NKU on the road) could absolutely help this conference Garner multiple bids again.

[VUGrad1314]

KenPom numbers for top 3 expansion candidates:
Murray State 65 Would be first in MVC)
NKU 71 Would be second in MVC
Belmont 98 (Would be third in MVC)

If you don't think adding any of these three would raise the profile of the MVC and add more higher tier wins to conference play then you aren't paying attention

It's a shame we can't get East Tennessee State into the mix because of North Dakota's football team because their rating (59) is better than all of them.

[elephtheria47]

Especially with teams now getting credit for top 75 rpi wins. Adding a yearly top 75 team would be a big addition

[crusadermoe]

BigMoSmithFan,   I didn't know Majerus wanted to join the Valley.    My guess is that the former President was the driving force beyond striving upward.   

Now they are a big PC mess and could use the budget decreases.

[VUGrad1314]

Why would we want to battle 11 teams instead of 9 for a single tourney bid, much less 13 other teams? That seems like a bad strategy. Still waiting for someone to come up with an answer for why the MVC should voluntarily sign up for that.

Your post misses a very important point: There was a lot of smoke to suggest that if Belmont had been willing to jump to the MVC along with us and Murray State we would be part of a 12 team conference. The only reason They stopped at 10 adding just Valpo was because they couldn't find a suitable 12th team. How do I know this? If we weren't serious about finding a 12th member for the MVC the expansion committee wouldn't still be active. Translation' They want Murray State. Now all they need is someone with as approximately as much value as Belmont who can travel with Murray State or not disturb the current pairings too greatly. If you look at the programs side by side you can make a strong argument that NKU is at least as good an addition as Belmont and honestly now that Wright State is on more solid footing they're beginning to look rather interesting as well if they can keep it up. It may not be next year or even until about 2020 but the MVC is going to expand. That is a virtual certainty.

[bigmosmithfan1]

It's a giant financial risk. You say "adding a Top 75 program" like it will automatically turn into an extra bid. It won't, because the NCAA Committee is currently all-out to protect P5/6 bids at the expense of good midmajor programs. Until that changes, any addition of a team should be viewed as "does this lock in - not give us a shot at, but *lock in* - a second bid for the MVC? Does it bring more TV revenue?" If the answer to these questions is no, then the discussion should be put off until the answer to the question is yes. Because otherwise, you're just putting the league and the programs in it further behind.

[vu72]

It's a giant financial risk. You say "adding a Top 75 program" like it will automatically turn into an extra bid. It won't, because the NCAA Committee is currently all-out to protect P5/6 bids at the expense of good midmajor programs. Until that changes, any addition of a team should be viewed as "does this lock in - not give us a shot at, but *lock in* - a second bid for the MVC? Does it bring more TV revenue?" If the answer to these questions is no, then the discussion should be put off until the answer to the question is yes. Because otherwise, you're just putting the league and the programs in it further behind.

I think as important as the extra bid could be the more important thing is the seeding our representative will have.  For all the hand wringing about Valpo's lack of wins in the Tourney, a big part is the seeding we received.   We had one 11 (maybe?) seed and the balance were lower, all the way down to a 16.  Tough way to start the tournament. When you are coming out of the 8th ranked RPI Conference it sure bodes well versus coming out of the 25th ranked RPI Conference.