Possible Missouri Valley Conference Expansion

[VUGrad1314]

Also if you add multiple top 100 programs you give your members 2 3 or 4 extra opportunities at tier one wins. Plus the conference tournament. Plus more bites at the quality nonconference wins apple. This would have a profoundly positive effect on not only seeding but conference profile. With MVC level talent NKU finishes those games against Vermont Memphis and Texas A&M and Murray State gets that win over Auburn Belmont notches the wins over Providence and Washington. If we had added two of these schools our conference RPI would likely have challenged the AAC for the #7 ranking in RPI and the MWC for the #8 KenPom spot. I think we'd definitely be talking multiple bids right now.

[VUGrad1314]

Does it guarantee extra bids every year? is the wrong question to be asking. Unless you're in the AAC or above no such guarantee can be made. Does it give us a fighting chance on a yearly basis and will it likely lead to more bids over time? Is a far better question. The best thing we can do for ourselves is to make our conference stronger whether that help comes from internal or external sources makes no difference.

[covufan]

The only way for the MVC to get more than one bid is to have more than one team in the top 35 in various rating systems (pick your favorite).

[VUGrad1314]

And the only way to do that is to play as many quality opponents as you can both outside and in conference

[talksalot]

So, updating the Standings, RPI and SOS... and adding the OOC-SOS...

TEAM   CONF   RPI   SOS   OOC-SOS
LoyoC  5 - 2   65   201   312
Misst  5 - 2   57   120   167
Drake  5 - 2   151  188   261
IllSt  4 - 3   82    33    22
IndS   4 - 3   135   53   54
Bradl  3 - 4   114   192   279
SouIl  3 - 4   134   113   154
Evans  2 - 5   124   97   137
Valpo  2 - 5   140   159   159
NorIa  2 - 5   127   37   17

[crusadermoe]

That is a very solid set of RPI numbers for a mid-major conference.   It is much more balanced without Creighton and Wichita State, but it will be painfully less lucrative in NCAA cash winnings.

All of the MVC teams are solidly in the top half of  the 330 Division I programs.  This is fun even though we are struggling to get to the middle.  Starting our Arch Madness on Friday and thereby avoiding the Thursday play-in game at Arch Madness would satisfy me.  Reaching the semis would be a success.  I don't see the Finals happening, but I would LOVE to be wrong.   

[EddieCabot]

So, updating the Standings, RPI and SOS... and adding the OOC-SOS...

TEAM   CONF   RPI   SOS   OOC-SOS
LoyoC  5 - 2   65   201   312
Misst  5 - 2   57   120   167
Drake  5 - 2   151  188   261
IllSt  4 - 3   82    33    22
IndS   4 - 3   135   53   54
Bradl  3 - 4   114   192   279
SouIl  3 - 4   134   113   154
Evans  2 - 5   124   97   137
Valpo  2 - 5   140   159   159
NorIa  2 - 5   127   37   17

Valpo's OOC-SOS is much better than I thought at 159 ... middle of the pack for the MVC.

[VUGrad1314]

That is a very solid set of RPI numbers for a mid-major conference.   It is much more balanced without Creighton and Wichita State, but it will be painfully less lucrative in NCAA cash winnings .

Not necessarily. All we need to do is work on achieving this balance at a higher level.

[VUGrad1314]

I'm sure this point has been discussed but I saw it as I was reading Murray State fans discussion of their potential MVC move if we can come to agree on teams for expansion: Moreso than bids units matter. Obviously being a multibid league guarantees two or more units depending on how many teams get in plus any victories they achieve but if we can't consistently reach multibid status maximizing the ability of our one representative to win tournament games has a similarly beneficial effect. They can achieve this by receiving a higher seed which they can get by playing higher quality teams. Expansion done right can help a great deal in this pursuit

[elephtheria47]

I also think, as a mid major conference, you need to be proactive rather than reactive. The HL was reactive and we saw what happened with that. Let's not do that again.

[VUGrad1314]

This is precisely why I advocate adding a school like NKU even though they haven't "proven it" quite yet. We all see the potential. We know it's there. We also know it's a good bet that this potential is realized soon. Why wait? I have no doubt that they would compete in the MVC given their level of commitment.

[VUGrad1314]

KenPom has Murray State and Northern Kentucky both ahead of all MVC teams. Belmont is third just behind Loyola. Still think these are bad additions?

[valpo84]

Murray State has a history of solid D1 performance. NKU has had 2 good seasons after preparing to join D1.  Wright State entered the AMCU with similar first couple years of performance with experienced teams.  The key question for NKU is can they sustain for 5-10 years, especially when this coach leaves because they had a couple of good years.  The jury is out on them despite the amount of resources they have poured into their athletic programs.  They have a nice arena that UCin is using this year while the Shoe is being remodeled.  Be careful of fast rising D2 programs with no sustained D1 success, they often come crashing back after the first few years.

[VUGrad1314]

So Wright State they of only two NCAA appearances ever was NKU back in the AMCU days? Man that's definitely food for thought.

[wh]

I don't think the MVC has any intention on increasing membership in the foreseeable future. Carry on...

[VUGrad1314]

I disagree strongly. I can't remember where but I remember running across an interview with one of the higher-ups in the MVC who told the folks at Scottrade Center to prepare for two extra play-in games starting as soon as next year. The expansion committee will meet in St Louis in under two weeks, so we should know more soon.

[VUGrad1314]

Wright State just beat NKU for the season sweep of the Norse. They now hold the tiebreaker for first place in the Horizon League. Also the door is now wide open for UIC. The Flames remain a game back of WSU\NKU but have home dates with both during the last week of the season. I share this information because it may impact the expansion committee's thoughts about NKU and their readiness for this conference. (Honestly it probably won't as NKU really feels like the best non-Belmont option but you never know.) What do you guys think? Does Wright State sweeping NKU change your thoughts on the Norse? If UIC wins the HL, does the MVC look more seriously at them? Could Wright State be a workable travel partner for Murray State?

[VUGrad1314]

Some of my thoughts on expansion as the committee's meeting nears:

Getting back to the original thread topic, the Murray State board is again buzzing with rumors of a forthcoming invite, this after they have wrestled first place from Belmont and set up a "can clinch with win" scenario for their final game.

One has to wonder whether Belmont's mind can be changed given the events of this season. They scheduled about as well as a team can schedule and yet they may not even get an NIT bid. They may need to win the OVC Tournament to avoid the CBI\CIT. The Bruins were really hurt by the down year in the Horizon League, Vanderbilt falling off, getting swept by Lipscomb, blowing two big chances at P5\BE wins against Washington and Providence, and tripping up in conference play. Meanwhile, the MVC showed great resiliency as the conference surged from 12th to 8th in RPI and may have a legitimate at-large candidate in Loyola if the Ramblers don't win in St Louis. While they would clearly benefit from a move to the MVC their decision to move their men's soccer team to the SOCON may speak volumes about their intentions especially with the Racers seemingly poised to vacate the premises and leave Belmont to potentially go on a Gonzaga or Kansas like run in the OVC.

Similar to Murray State, in-state rival and possible MVC target Northern Kentucky set up a win and clinch scenario following an unexpected loss to IUPUI by Wright State as the Norse doused the formerly torrid Flames of UIC 79-72. Succeeding in Indianapolis where the Raiders failed today will allow NKU to claim that mantle once held by Valparaiso, which left the Horizon League for the MVC this past July.

One may perhaps be alarmed by the rumors of significant cuts to higher education in Kentucky and the impact that may have on athletic budgets, but Murray State surely has the program and the fan support to weather this storm, and NKU, which sits just a few miles south of Cincinnati is in a prosperous region and is building a strong and passionate fanbase that will no doubt be energized by a move to the MVC. Fans of opposing teams will come away most impressed by the facilities the Norse can boast, particularly BB&T Arena.

I also wonder if SLU may be rethinking their stance on the MVC in light of the down year the A10 endured coupled with the success Loyola--a fellow Jesuit school--and indeed the Valley as a whole enjoyed. However, Father Harry said at last check that the two parties have not discussed a reunion, and I trust his word.

[bbtds]

I also wonder if SLU may be rethinking their stance on the MVC in light of the down year the A10 endured coupled with the success Loyola--a fellow Jesuit school--and indeed the Valley as a whole enjoyed. However, Father Harry said at last check that the two parties have not discussed a reunion, and I trust his word.

SLU is about as ready to give up the A10 as Governor Greitens is ready to give up his governorship in Jeff City.

[VUGrad1314]

Commissioner Elgin on Arch Madness the future of the MVC and expansion.

https://soundcloud.com/mikereis-siu/2018-03-03-reis-interview-vs-illinois-st-mvc-tournament-doug-elginmp3

Personally I find his remarks on expansion  understandable but disappointing. I understand that there isn't a  comfortable 12th team but I still don't get why that should stop us from adding Murray State, the type of program that would do exactly what the commissioner wants an expansion candidate to do: increase the chances of at-large bids in the MVC.

[bigmosmithfan1]

Until there is a radical re-adjustment in how the committee evaluates non-P5 teams, there is ZERO reason to invite anyone else. We're making it incrementally harder to get to the tournament while shrinking our revenues due to the additional share.

Loyola was Twenty Damn Seven and five, with a road win over a likely 5/6 seed from the SEC, and by all accounts was probably getting snubbed if they lost in the Valley title game yesterday. Why in the hell should we take a risk of adding *anyone* without assurances that the Valley will get a fair shake from the committee first (or at least credit for adding a good program)?

(And Murray is a great program -- by the numbers, adding them *should* put us on par with the A-10. But "should" and "will" are two very different things in the mind of a committee that basically operates as a protection racket for the brand names these days).

[VU2014]

I don't think the league will expand this offseason. Murray State isn't going anywhere and there isn't a great 12th option and dividing the pie 12 ways instead of 10 ways will weigh heavily in the University Presidents' minds. To be honest I don't see the urgency right now to expand and I do not fault them if we don't expand this offseason but keep the option open to expansion.

[VUGrad1314]

I wonder if Loyola's run has changed Belmont's perspective on the MVC and we can expand to 12 and give everybody at least two more Q1 games.

[bigmosmithfan1]

Loyola's run is all the more reason to stand pat unless any addition makes us a dead-lock multi-bid league.

That said, I'd be taking a coffee with SLU if I was the Valley brass right now with the following pitch: "hey, you can join a conference on the rise that's been to the Final Four twice in the past six years, with lots of built-in regional rivalries, and cut your travel costs across all sports by two-thirds... or you can stay in a 14-team league that hasn't been to the Final Four in 22 years, where you're only marginally more likely to get in the Dance, and where your nearest conference rival is 360 miles away."

[VUGrad1314]

I agree on SLU. There are a lot of parallels between them and Loyola so I'm sure Loyola's run at least raised some eyebrows for them. SLU and Dayton would be amazing--a huge coup for the conference. I disagree on the effect of Loyola's run justifying the wisdom of standing pat. First of all I think adding teams like Murray State and Belmont absolutely makes the MVC a surefire multibid league; and secondly, I cite the HL's inability to cash in on Butler's runs as evidence of the need to strike while the iron is hot. I remember reading that there were rumors of Murray State and Belmont going to the HL on the heels of Butler's runs but they were scared off by seeing multiple schools clamoring to join the MVC. We all know what happened to the HL after that. The MVC needs to pull in these high-caliber programs whenever and however they can.