Enrollment numbers

[crusadermoe]

I got curious for where the big changes in enrollment were located and looked at the 2022-2023 enrollments on the website.  Each year shows all four years of enrollment. 

We talk about STEM growing and leading the way. I was shocked that 145 seniors graduated from the College of Engineering this Spring.  In each of the classes following there were 75-80 students.  I guess the nasty fall off was somehow caused by COVID?   

Maybe the international kids went home in spring 2020 and the next 3 classes just stayed at the low level?  Wow.  Surprisingly the A&S enrollment was pretty steady over the 4 years ending 2022-2023. So what does Fall 2023 hold for VU enrollment?

[David81]

I got curious for where the big changes in enrollment were located and looked at the 2022-2023 enrollments on the website.  Each year shows all four years of enrollment. 

We talk about STEM growing and leading the way. I was shocked that 145 seniors graduated from the College of Engineering this Spring.  In each of the classes following there were 75-80 students.  I guess the nasty fall off was somehow caused by COVID?   

Maybe the international kids went home in spring 2020 and the next 3 classes just stayed at the low level?  Wow.  Surprisingly the A&S enrollment was pretty steady over the 4 years ending 2022-2023. So what does Fall 2023 hold for VU enrollment?

Are international students heavily represented in undergraduate Engineering enrollments at VU? If so, your surmise is probably correct. The pandemic just slammed international enrollments at many schools, including mine at the undergrad level. I don't know if those numbers are recovering overall.

I once heard an int'l program person say that tapping into the int'l market can be the opposite of trying to lose weight: So hard to gain, so easy to lose.

[vu72]

Are international students heavily represented in undergraduate Engineering enrollments at VU? If so, your surmise is probably correct. The pandemic just slammed international enrollments at many schools, including mine at the undergrad level. I don't know if those numbers are recovering overall.

This was posted by Crusader 05 On June 27:

Pal may be able to confirm this but what I've heard is that Enrollment is stable from last year in regards to undergrads and way up(like close to double) in regards to graduate students (unclear how much of that is international).

[valpopal]

Are international students heavily represented in undergraduate Engineering enrollments at VU? If so, your surmise is probably correct. The pandemic just slammed international enrollments at many schools, including mine at the undergrad level. I don't know if those numbers are recovering overall.

This was posted by Crusader 05 On June 27:

Pal may be able to confirm this but what I've heard is that Enrollment is stable from last year in regards to undergrads and way up(like close to double) in regards to graduate students (unclear how much of that is international).

I would expect undergraduate enrollment to be about the same as last year, while it is too soon to predict graduate numbers.

[vu84v2]

Separate from the international student issues, programs with more rigorous quantitative work (STEM, but also business and others) have faced another challenge that has ultimately affected enrollment (particularly in very heavy quantitative fields like engineering). There has been a sharp decline in math and quantitative skills in students coming out of high school, with the most common reason being reduced rigor during the 1+ year period associated with COVID. If students don't feel confident in their quantitative skills, they are less likely to choose engineering. A university like Valpo could find an advantage (particularly over public universities) if they can show ways to help prospective students overcome this limitation...while not reducing the rigor of the engineering program.

[David81]

Separate from the international student issues, programs with more rigorous quantitative work (STEM, but also business and others) have faced another challenge that has ultimately affected enrollment (particularly in very heavy quantitative fields like engineering). There has been a sharp decline in math and quantitative skills in students coming out of high school, with the most common reason being reduced rigor during the 1+ year period associated with COVID. If students don't feel confident in their quantitative skills, they are less likely to choose engineering. A university like Valpo could find an advantage (particularly over public universities) if they can show ways to help prospective students overcome this limitation...while not reducing the rigor of the engineering program.

vu84v2, taking your observation + a conversation I had this evening with a friend who teaches high school in a Massachusetts suburb where the kids have pretty strong academic records on the whole.....she said the COVID impact hit math competencies especially hard at virtually every grade level, which means this could be felt for many years as each class moves up -- the gift that keeps on giving.

I'm wondering if it would be smart for schools to think outside of the box on this, such as summer intensives or "academies" for students who want to be competitive for college majors requiring strong math + quantitative skills. If they're very honest about the impact of the shutdown period on these competencies and basically blame it on COVID, that will help to remove any stigma (if one exists) from participating in such a program.

[vu84v2]

While there will be some isolated cases in which high schools and K-8 schools will think outside the box and implement ways to increase high school students' competence in quantitative skills, I am not confident (on the whole) that high schools (as well as K-8) will meaningfully address this problem...and even less confident that they will address this problem in a timely manner. There are many reasons for my doubts: prioritization of this problem versus other problems (perceived and real), cost, availability of qualified teachers, lack of incentive and outcome-based pay structures for teachers, etc. Further, it will need to be addressed at many levels of K-12 over a long period of time.

Thus, I think that universities will need to address the two problems - reduced interest and reduced quantitative competence - that affect enrollment in STEM and other quantitative disciplines. I think that summer intensives or "academies" offered by universities can address the first problem, but these need to be 'nearly free' to prospective students. Charge a reasonable fee for an on-campus academy that is fully refunded (perhaps with a partial refund of travel expenses) if the student ultimately attends the university. The second problem is far more challenging to solve, especially for the quantitative programs with more intense rigor. One solution is to adjust the curriculum plan for students - letting them take a course like pre-Calculus (which would count as an open elective) prior to taking the required Calculus course(s), and then adjusting the current course plan to accommodate students having some delays for meeting the pre-requisites for other courses. Pre-Calculus (or other classes necessary to get students caught up on quantitative skills) could also be offered in the summer prior to their first year or even prior to high school graduation. As I stated before, I believe taking steps like this could create some degree of an advantage for Valpo because public universities may face some barriers to offering these solutions.

[vu84v2]

Agreed, COVID really damaged math study skills. Students got used to just sort of watching videos passively and thinking they understood how the numbers were moving around -- but did not learn how to actually practice math problems themselves on paper, which means they can't actually do it.

I would rephrase this a bit differently. COVID created a situation in which the math skills of K-12 students could really be damaged and the education system (and, to some degree, parents) did not prioritize finding alternative ways to prevent the damage. The result is the significantly reduced understanding that you describe. As I said before, I am not confident that the K-12 schools will address this problem and, thus, universities will need to find ways to address the problem.

[crusadermoe]

That's awesome.  Well at least the highly motivated kids will pull through and become STEM specialists.  And at least the others will become excellent gamers.

Do you suppose the Asian countries shut down their school diligence in March 2020 and just let kids just mail it in or keep the grade they had earned as of Feb. 28?  Possibly.  If not, then gosh I wonder why we lag as a country.

[David81]

That's awesome.  Well at least the highly motivated kids will pull through and become STEM specialists.  And at least the others will become excellent gamers.

Do you suppose the Asian countries shut down their school diligence in March 2020 and just let kids just mail it in or keep the grade they had earned as of Feb. 28?  Possibly.  If not, then gosh I wonder why we lag as a country.

Though it's absolutely true that many Asian countries are outdoing the U.S. in terms of STEM education, our K-12 challenges are hardly limited to that. Basic writing skills, understanding of history, and general cultural literacy join with STEM in being among the areas where we're seeing a widening gap between successful and unsuccessful students. Lax standards, social promotion, teaching to the test, larger class sizes, an explosion of accommodation requests/IEPs, and many other factors are in play.

Oftentimes, the teachers are caught in the middle between federal/state/local educational policies and parents who are either absentee/negligent or helicoptering/overly monitoring. It's no wonder why, despite decent pay in some school districts, teacher shortages are rampant. Some of our best teachers are leaving the profession prematurely. These seeds had been planted before COVID came along, but the pandemic educational environment was the last straw for many of them.

[vu72]

Valpo will have a challenging time keeping enrollment at the same level as last fall because of the sizable Senior class.

Statistics from Fall of 2022 included 576 Freshman, 537 Sophomores, 533 juniors and 700 Seniors! The previous fall it was worse with 586 Freshman while the Senior class had 800!  I'm hoping we level off in the next couple of years and then start growing again, but that will be pretty tough as the enrollment cliff hits in 2025.

[David81]

Valpo will have a challenging time keeping enrollment at the same level as last fall because of the sizable Senior class.

Statistics from Fall of 2022 included 576 Freshman, 537 Sophomores, 533 juniors and 700 Seniors! The previous fall it was worse with 586 Freshman while the Senior class had 800!  I'm hoping we level off in the next couple of years and then start growing again, but that will be pretty tough as the enrollment cliff hits in 2025.

Schools across the country are still working through their "COVID classes," with notable undergraduate enrollment drops, and many are struggling to recover their pre-COVID numbers. Many of the annual budget deficits at regional private universities are due to this shortfall, which is why we're likely to hear about deficits for at least another two years. (Think pandemic timeline: Most of last year's seniors started fall 2019, most juniors 2020, most sophomores 2021, freshmen 2022.)

[crusadermoe]

Yes, that is sobering.   A small class starves you for a full four years.  We have to rinse three out of the enrollment total.  Wow.

So to clarify the "cliff" in 2025, does that mean that fall 2025 is the first small national freshman class?  Or does the small class land nationally on campus in fall 2026?

[crusadermoe]

And of course the body count is just one part of the financial equation.  The vital short-term question is how much revenue per student will the university receive? 

And how does that net tuition revenue compare to this year's senior class and to the others?    Naturally that is information we won't see publicized.

[vu72]

Yes, that is sobering.   A small class starves you for a full four years.  We have to rinse three out of the enrollment total.  Wow.

So to clarify the "cliff" in 2025, does that mean that fall 2025 is the first small national freshman class?  Or does the small class land nationally on campus in fall 2026?

This article spells it out pretty well.  It will START in 2025!

https://www.bestcolleges.com/news/analysis/looming-enrollment-cliff-poses-serious-threat-to-colleges/#:~:text=Thanks%20to%20lower%20birthrates%20during,geographic%20region%20and%20institutional%20type.

[David81]

I think that most universities need to assume smaller entering classes for the foreseeable future, for at least three reasons, the first being solely about the numbers, the other two presenting very challenging social & economic aspects:

1. The demographic enrollment cliff, the seeds of which were planted (actually, not planted ) years ago;

2. A growing drumbeat questioning the merits of a college degree and the costs-benefits of obtaining one;

3. The now-established and very concerning dynamic of young men stuck in a "failing to thrive" mode, e.g., not pursuing post-secondary opportunities that have been traditional door-openers to economic success, including college, trade school, or military service.

There's no reason to think that VU can avoid these realities.

[vu72]

3. The now-established and very concerning dynamic of young men stuck in a "failing to thrive" mode, e.g., not pursuing post-secondary opportunities that have been traditional door-openers to economic success, including college, trade school, or military service.

All the more reason to perhaps add back a men's soccer team or LaCrosse team.  A school like Evansville, which dropped its football team years ago, would not doubt love to have an additional 120 men on campus. At present Evansville is showing 60.36% of students are female while Valpo is not much better, showing 58% female.

[wh]

3. The now-established and very concerning dynamic of young men stuck in a "failing to thrive" mode, e.g., not pursuing post-secondary opportunities that have been traditional door-openers to economic success, including college, trade school, or military service.

All the more reason to perhaps add back a men's soccer team or LaCrosse team.  A school like Evansville, which dropped its football team years ago, would not doubt love to have an additional 120 men on campus. At present Evansville is showing 60.36% of students are female while Valpo is not much better, showing 58% female.

I know the general consensus is that Valpo's non-scholarship football team is a cash cow, but it's not that obvious to me. If that were the case, why wouldn't Evansville have one? Or Bradley? Or Belmont? Creighton? DePaul? Detroit? Gonzaga? Green Bay? Loyola? Grand Canyon? Marquette? Milwaukee? Oral Roberts? Providence, St. Louis, UIC, Wichita State? VCU? Xavier? Many others?

[VULB#62]

What's the male/female ratios at each of the schools on the list?  Perhaps they are fine with a predominantly female enrollment. If males don't want it, someone has to fill the gap, right?  Hey, a tuition dollar is a dollar. But if some of them are close to 50/50, there are lessons to be learned.

Anyway, as women gain increased education and credentials, it'll be reasonable to believe that a shift in the power curve in culture, business, politics, education, medicine, etc.  is inevitable.

Might not be that bad — indigenous North Americans were matriarchal and they existed that way for a couple thousand years. (Yeah, I know, the males still waged the wars  ).

[David81]

3. The now-established and very concerning dynamic of young men stuck in a "failing to thrive" mode, e.g., not pursuing post-secondary opportunities that have been traditional door-openers to economic success, including college, trade school, or military service.

All the more reason to perhaps add back a men's soccer team or LaCrosse team.  A school like Evansville, which dropped its football team years ago, would not doubt love to have an additional 120 men on campus. At present Evansville is showing 60.36% of students are female while Valpo is not much better, showing 58% female.

I know the general consensus is that Valpo's non-scholarship football team is a cash cow, but it's not that obvious to me. If that were the case, why wouldn't Evansville have one? Or Bradley? Or Belmont? Creighton? DePaul? Detroit? Gonzaga? Green Bay? Loyola? Grand Canyon? Marquette? Milwaukee? Oral Roberts? Providence, St. Louis, UIC, Wichita State? VCU? Xavier? Many others?

It's a good question. At least for schools located in cities, space for a stadium & facilities is a big factor. Plus, you pretty much have to guarantee housing for each player, and for urban universities where dorm beds are in demand, that may not be easy.

I would be interested in what the ballpark cost is to maintain a non-scholarship college football program, then running those numbers against projected revenue from football players' tuition, room, and board (minus institutional grants and scholarships for need and merit) and revenue from ticket sales.

[VULB#62]

Non-scolly FB is probably not a cash cow in the sense that it pulls in gobs of revenue and makes gigantic profits. But it does net the uni more than it invests in it annually.  I recall a similar discussion a while back but couldn't find it. Anyway, I think I recall FB as being around $100k in the black because the 100 or so players pay tuition (vs. the uni paying for FB scholarships) and the income from buy games. But the main reason FB is viable is that it brings in around 100 males every year. Without FB, the male/female balance would be further skewed female.

[vu72]

There are 96 players on the Valpo men's football team, and they are led by one head coach and 10 assistant coaches. As an interesting note on their academic performance, the team's APR is 956.

Valpo brought in $1,243,116 in revenue from its football program while paying out $1,158,267 in expenses. So, the program was a moneymaker for the school, bringing in $84,849 in net profit. Mark this down as a good thing.

https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/valparaiso-university/student-life/sports/#:~:text=There%20are%2096%20players%20on%20the%20Valpo%20men%E2%80%99s,football%20program%20while%20paying%20out%20%241%2C158%2C267%20in%20expenses.

[vu84v2]

There are 96 players on the Valpo men's football team, and they are led by one head coach and 10 assistant coaches. As an interesting note on their academic performance, the team's APR is 956.

Valpo brought in $1,243,116 in revenue from its football program while paying out $1,158,267 in expenses. So, the program was a moneymaker for the school, bringing in $84,849 in net profit. Mark this down as a good thing.

https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/valparaiso-university/student-life/sports/#:~:text=There%20are%2096%20players%20on%20the%20Valpo%20men%E2%80%99s,football%20program%20while%20paying%20out%20%241%2C158%2C267%20in%20expenses.

I generally agree with this conclusion, but we need to be careful about conclusions associated with the revenue side of what is reported by universities for each athletic program. I recently had a discussion with our Assistant AD and he said that, while the reported expenses are pretty accurate, there are a lot of intangibles figured into the revenue side. This is the reason why many teams ultimately report revenues equal to expenses in men's basketball....they add in some level of "intangible value" for that year.

[vu84v2]

valpo22 - Great post. A particularly important point is "subcultures". A university needs a strong environment across an array of subcultures.

[David81]

Y'all on this e-board have convinced me that the sports intangibles do matter for institutional survival.

I used to think sports was a dubious use of money when so many other (more mission-essential?) parts of the university were even more severely under-invested and cratering fast. But morale is a critical issue, and Valpo needs to take morale aide from wherever we can get it. We benefit not only from the sports teams bringing in X number of students but also bringing up the % of students who have a sense of connection, embededeness,  or general satisfaction in being at Valpo. Especially with the rising ratio of commuter students and even residential students just sitting alone in their rooms on social media or video games, the university really needs students who are engaged in some kind of on-campus life.

Valpo has to overcome a very tough location that lots of other better-located schools don't have to deal with, so the sports teams, Greek life, Theatre/Arts subcultures, etc are all the more important for making students feel like there is still some community value in a 4-yr college experience (different than online, community college, or just commuting to mega state school campus for classes). The sports players also bring some regional diversity to the student body, since sometimes they are willing to come from the non-Midwest for the chance to play sports.

Even if the sports teams are financially a wash, I'm sure they are essential to retaining a sense of communal experience.

I agree 100 percent. VU's location makes its campus experience even more important. A student can't step off campus and experience a metropolitan area or a classic college town. (Though on the latter, the surrounding Valparaiso community offers much more than it did generations ago.) A rich extracurricular and co-curricular life of many dimensions makes VU a much more appealing destination.

VU would be a sadly diminished place without its sports program. On that measure, sports don't have to be money makers. If they become too much of a budget drain, then perhaps hard decisions need to be made. But cutting programs can become a race to the bottom, as it does in other aspects of university life.

This rationale justifies expenditures in other aspects of student life, as well, including music & performing arts, student publications & media, and student organizations generally.