Enrollment numbers

[vu84v2]

Fall 2023 total enrollment data was posted on the VU Office of Institutional Effectiveness page, in the 'longitudinal' data section:

Fall enrollment by college
https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/files/2023/09/FALL01.totalenrollment_fall-2023.pdf

Fall new students by college
https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/files/2023/09/NEWF01B.newstudent.enrollment_fall-2023.pdf

Fall full-time/part-time by college
https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/files/2023/09/FALL04.FTPT_fall-2023.pdf

Fall FTEs by college
https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/files/2023/09/FALL03.FTE_fall-2023.pdf

valpo22 - thanks for posting.

To be candid, not a positive story in those numbers. Total undergraduate enrollment down to 2277. Total new students and new first-time students at lowest level since at least 2000. New transfers at lowest level since 2007. The ambiguity in the prior announcements led to some suspicion...which seems justified.

When I look at these numbers, I am left to wonder what the strategy is to reverse these numbers.

[valpopal]

The number will likely have altered a bit between 8/23 and the final census count that will be conducted on Tuesday 9/5. However, it is safe to assume undergraduate enrollment will be a little over 700. (The grad student numbers should be just over 200.) In any case, the official numbers should be revealed by the the time of the fall faculty meeting on Thursday 9/7.

It looks like the numbers I have been sharing for the last month from "the most reliable sources" have proved almost exact to the final tally revealed this week. The undergraduate enrollment of new students (degree and non-degree) is 729. I had reported a first-year total of degree-seeking students at "about 600," and it winds up at 599. I had stated there would be "a little over 100 transfers": The final number is 104. The overall total without "non-degree students" is 703, which mirrors my "a little over 700." 

[valpopal]

vu84v2: "When I look at these numbers, I am left to wonder what the strategy is to reverse these numbers."

The projected goal for new degree-seeking students (freshmen, access students, and transfers) in fall 2024 will likely be about 800, an increase of nearly 100. Of course, goals are aspirational, and I think 750 would be considered a solid and successful benchmark for improvement over this semester's 703. Due to mid-year administrative turnover, which certainly must have been a disadvantage but not an excuse for the current numbers, the Vice President of Enrollment and Marketing took office in February, so this upcoming year will be the first true test with her new strategy in place, which I am told will include a more rapid response time to applications among other approaches.

[vu84v2]

vu84v2: "When I look at these numbers, I am left to wonder what the strategy is to reverse these numbers."

The projected goal for new degree-seeking students (freshmen, access students, and transfers) in fall 2024 will likely be about 800, an increase of nearly 100. Of course, goals are aspirational, and I think 750 would be considered a solid and successful benchmark for improvement over this semester's 703. Due to mid-year administrative turnover, which certainly must have been a disadvantage but not an excuse for the current numbers, the Vice President of Enrollment and Marketing took office in February, so this upcoming year will be the first true test with her new strategy in place, which I am told will include a more rapid response time to applications among other approaches.

First, this poor performance is on President Padilla. He is the chief executive and the organization failed on one of its most important measures (and likely the most urgent). You don't get a pass just because someone left and a new person came in. A good organization NEVER relies on a single person for performance and it is up the the chief executive to not let this be the case. Frankly, my perception is that President Padilla acts more like a political leader than a chief executive - looking to appeal to a majority of stakeholders and other external parties (not necessarily associated with Valpo) rather than recognizing and acting as the person with the ultimate responsibility for performance. Maybe I am wrong and am missing some real strategies, actions and accountability....I sincerely hope that I am, but I do not see it. Grade for President Padilla on this student recruiting cycle: D- (and his overall performance cannot be considered much higher given the importance of student recruiting and enrollment).

Second, if the university misses the target of 800, who will be held accountable (via pay and ability to retain their job)?

Third (and related to the perception of President Padilla acting more like a political leader), I do not see the value of a program like "Access". Students attend for two years and can complete a university studies two year degree. So who is the competition?  Junior colleges, which means that you need to pricelike a JC rather than a private four-year university. I can see how this might make President Padilla more valued among a wide variety of people who might influence his future career ambitions, but I do not see how it creates value (in terms of students and the discount rate). Some might argue that Valpo wants to enable 'Access' students to complete four year degrees, but I will believe it when I see it.

Fourth, I have said this before but I will say it again - student recruiting efforts vastly underutilize resources associated with the professional colleges. I am an alum who is engaged quite a bit more than the average alum. How many times have I been asked to meet with potential students? None...and for most years I have lived in one of two major metro areas near Valpo. To what degree are faculty engaged with potential students? Minimal (though I am happy to see some new full day interactive programs with prospective nursing and engineering students that I assume are with faculty). Compare this to the university where I work, where every prospective student for our college who visits meets with a faculty member or a more senior administrator. Valpo's approach to recruiting is far too centralized (i.e., the university tries to promote the same message and value proposition to all prospective students).

[David81]

If we're trying to get to the heart of the challenge, then the info posted by vu84v2 and valpo22 give us a good profile.

For a school that admits one of the largest % of its applicants, VU is doing OK on retention. Not great, but not bad.

And then we get to disappointing fall enrollment numbers.

There's at least a first-level failure in the admissions outreach: You can't persuade someone to matriculate if they haven't even applied. And getting folks to apply shouldn't be the hardest part. It's about having enough on the surface to be worth at least a speculative or safety application.

vu84v2 makes good points about involving faculty in becoming points of contact with students, but that's mostly (though hardly exclusively) after they've been admitted, or at least after they've applied. But before one gets to that deeper level of student recruiting, the initial appeal of the institution through other forms of outreach should be strong enough to enlarge the applicant pool. But something isn't coming across.

[vu84v2]

If we're trying to get to the heart of the challenge, then the info posted by vu84v2 and valpo22 give us a good profile.

For a school that admits one of the largest % of its applicants, VU is doing OK on retention. Not great, but not bad.

And then we get to disappointing fall enrollment numbers.

There's at least a first-level failure in the admissions outreach: You can't persuade someone to matriculate if they haven't even applied. And getting folks to apply shouldn't be the hardest part. It's about having enough on the surface to be worth at least a speculative or safety application.

vu84v2 makes good points about involving faculty in becoming points of contact with students, but that's mostly (though hardly exclusively) after they've been admitted, or at least after they've applied. But before one gets to that deeper level of student recruiting, the initial appeal of the institution through other forms of outreach should be strong enough to enlarge the applicant pool. But something isn't coming across.

David81 - To clarify, I am specfically talking about faculty meeting with prospective students before they apply. In most cases, prospective students visit the university before they apply. When any prospective student visits, the plan needs to include meeting with faculty in his or her preferred colleges.

[David81]

If we're trying to get to the heart of the challenge, then the info posted by vu84v2 and valpo22 give us a good profile.

For a school that admits one of the largest % of its applicants, VU is doing OK on retention. Not great, but not bad.

And then we get to disappointing fall enrollment numbers.

There's at least a first-level failure in the admissions outreach: You can't persuade someone to matriculate if they haven't even applied. And getting folks to apply shouldn't be the hardest part. It's about having enough on the surface to be worth at least a speculative or safety application.

vu84v2 makes good points about involving faculty in becoming points of contact with students, but that's mostly (though hardly exclusively) after they've been admitted, or at least after they've applied. But before one gets to that deeper level of student recruiting, the initial appeal of the institution through other forms of outreach should be strong enough to enlarge the applicant pool. But something isn't coming across.

David81 - To clarify, I am specfically talking about faculty meeting with prospective students before they apply. In most cases, prospective students visit the university before they apply. When any prospective student visits, the plan needs to include meeting with faculty in his or her preferred colleges.

Boy, expectations must've changed a lot since my days. I had no expectations of a 1-to-1 meeting with any faculty member (college or law school) at the pre-application stage. I considered myself fortunate to have such a meeting even after acceptance.

In any event, per our friend ValpoDiaspora's comments last spring, expecting faculty to take on a huge number of 1-to-1 meetings with potential recruits would add considerably to their service duties. In the case of faculty with heavy teaching loads (e.g., VU) and comparatively modest pay (e.g., VU), something else may be sacrificed as a result (scholarship, other committee service, perhaps even instruction, such as reducing availability to current students or opting to rely on multiple-choice tests over grading essay exams).

While that kind of time-intensive outreach may be useful, it may be wholly unnecessary -- or at least, a cherry on top -- if the school was marketing itself adequately, which is the most resource-efficient way to attract more applicants. But VU is not conveying its message well. If you need evidence, take a look at the home page of its website as of today: https://www.valpo.edu. What does it tell you about the look & feel of the University and what it stands for as an educational institution? Pretty much nothing. There's no persuasive hook to give anyone, regardless of what they're looking for in a college, reason to consider VU.

[David81]

I'm going to amend my comment above to say that extensive pre-application contact with faculty may be materially helpful (i.e., increase both applications and yield) for two schools at VU: Christ College (because of its unique honors college status) and Engineering (as a nationally ranked undergraduate program).

[vu84v2]

David81 - Meeting with prospective students is not nearly the burden that you think it is. First, faculty typically meet with 2-5 families at a time (and, not surprisingly, many of these meetings are on Fridays since that is the day most students and their families visit). If someone comes on a Wednesday, they probably do meet 1 on 1. I think we probably end up with about 40 meetings in a semester. We have about 15 faculty and senior administrators who do this (it is voluntary), so everyone does 2-3 meetings per semester and the meetings are typically 45-60 minutes. That is the model that I am suggesting for Valpo - not a lot of time and a whole lot of value for that time.

[covufan]

We can't expect much, when the students we recruit are accepted at a 96% rate.

VU is in trouble, and we (the Alumni) need to help


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[vu84v2]

We can't expect much, when the students we recruit are accepted at a 96% rate.

VU is in trouble, and we (the Alumni) need to help


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I fully agree that alumni need to help...and it isn't just "send us money" or "let us know if you know someone who is interested". But the acceptance rate is a very misleading number, as it is not much more work to apply to 20 schools as it is to apply to 10 schools. The statistic to look at are the distribution of test scores for incoming students. I am not aware of the average or median declining, or the first and second decile becoming very low - but if they do, that is an indication that the university is accepting students with lower credentials.

[covufan]

I tend to agree, but we (VU) needs to get the students that make a difference, instead of those that were accepted.

Fourty years ago, the in state schools (IU, Purdue, Illinois, MI, and MSU didn't need to recruit above those that were applying. Not the case today.

While many of us feel that our experience at VU is exceptional,  students looking at colleges today aren't so sure.


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[vu72]

The acceptance rate is one thing but my guess is that students of lower quality just aren't applying as the perception is "it's private and hard" so I won't bother.  The incoming class had a average GPA of 3.72.

[vu84v2]

valpo22 - Glad that faculty interactions with prospective students is happening, but I do think something so important needs to be systematic. I agree that it is not the silver bullet, since turning around admissions involves a lot of things (including marketing). But it is important.

For marketing, one thing that I have wondered is whether Valpo sufficiently markets its colleges for the value that each college brings.

[vu72]

Nice Torch article on the Access College program.

http://www.valpotorch.com/news/article_2172a282-4e5e-11ee-9112-cbfd4ee6e5eb.html

[valpopal]

Pal, I appreciate your optimism and I see how the numbers are playing out that you'd estimated --but I guess prior to this, I'd still had some hope that maybe your numbers weren't yet including the Access students or the sophomore/junior/senior transfers. So it is a bummer to see confirmed that so many of the 'new students' are not going to be the sort who stay around (or pay for) four years; and as far as I know, even if the Access students pay tuition (?), they belong to the growing undergrad commuter population --  which is its own issue in terms of commuter students not bringing in the room and board dollars that the traditional residential students used to. (BTW, I am not trying to suggest that students only matter in terms of the dollars they bring in, of course not. Just trying to point out these 'new students' numbers mask a lot about the changing composition of the student body and the related financial implications).

Please don't confuse my past statement of the enrollment facts as "optimism." I have been neither optimistic nor pessimistic, but just trying to be accurate. Also, today's article in the Torch confirms what I had previously been told about the Access students when advised about enrollment numbers for this year, almost all (23 out of 26) are living on campus. Finally, I have been informed the intention is to increase next year's class of Access students to maybe 40 or more.

[vu84v2]

Nice Torch article on the Access College program.

http://www.valpotorch.com/news/article_2172a282-4e5e-11ee-9112-cbfd4ee6e5eb.html

The article is well written and, to a degree, I can see some societal value. But what are the financials for this program? It is good to see that most live on campus, but (again) as this is essentially a junior college program I cannot see that these students are paying much more than JC tuition...yet the costs to Valpo cannot be much less than it would be if these students were four-year students. Further, what is the value of a two-year associates degree in University Studies? I hope that I eat my words on this and that these students continue at Valpo to get a far more valuable four-year degree...but I am dubious as there will be other far lower cost options for them to complete a four-year degree.

[crusadermoe]

That program don't really move any needles in student numbers.  So it's a very minor element.   

In cold hard reality, the question Moody's Bond ratings will seek is the net revenue received from our new total Fall 2023 enrollment. On this board we can only speculate.

Dropping by a net 100 students in the undergraduate sector predicts lower income. But it's not a perfect correlation. What is the entering class total net tuition vs. the net total from a larger senior class who left last spring? 

Let's pray that a Bradley U. sized cutback isn't coming in the next few months.  Weasel words in headlines such as "new Beacons" typically mask a problem.

[valpopal]

I just don't understand how the VP of Enrollment tells Valpopal wrong info of 602 new freshmen and over 100 transfers. Just own up to your numbers....

Since the final census totals are 599 freshmen and 104 transfers, just about the same as the projections I posted in mid-August and only a few off what the VP of Enrollment reported during the first week of classes, perhaps you should now own up to your numbers, which were way off and you claimed to have verified with the Registrar.

[vu84v2]

My opinion is that the comments in this article come off as, "look at this nice thing we are doing instead of looking at how we did not reach our enrollment goals." This is a classic political move that would rarely or neever be allowed of a business leader who missed key performance goals. And here are some questions not being addressed about the Access College program: what is the tuition being paid by the students in the program relative to other first and second year students in the university?  if students are in a two-year program that will yield a nearly worthless University Studies associates degree, how much longer than the traditional four years will it take for Access College students to complete a degree in nursing, business, etc. On the latter point, maybe I am missing something, but it doesn't seem that students in this program would be keeping pace with their peers who started in nursing, business, etc.

There are far better ways to have programs for first generation students and other students who would be at greater risk. Bring them in for the first summer and provide support while having them take two classes to get ahead...then have them take a little lighter load as they start a real major. Use the cohort program only to provide additional advising and support.

[wh]

I just don't understand how the VP of Enrollment tells Valpopal wrong info of 602 new freshmen and over 100 transfers. Just own up to your numbers....

Since the final census totals are 599 freshmen and 104 transfers, just about the same as the projections I posted in mid-August and only a few off what the VP of Enrollment reported during the first week of classes, perhaps you should now own up to your numbers, which were way off and you claimed to have verified with the Registrar.

The more important story is what the numbers mean to the university's future. Best case scenario, enrollment declined by another 3.2% year-over-year. I encourage you to look up '72's "Moody's rating" post from May to see what Valpo can anticipate going forward.

[Valporainsnow]

Let's pray that a Bradley U. sized cutback isn't coming in the next few months.  Weasel words in headlines such as "new Beacons" typically mask a problem.

Since I rarely post and mostly lurk here, just to reintroduce myself, I'm a VU alum and current Bradley parent. With a vested interest in the success of both institutions, I'm always interested in discussions about both as the obvious peers they are.


I certainly hope VU isn't looking at a BU type of cutback, but I'm not optimistic after seeing VU's census figures. I agree that that type of language is often used to mask issues.


The BU announcement took many people associated with the university by surprise. Everyone knows it's facing the same headwinds as its peers, but all indications were that it was at least faring better than many and had some modicum of relative stability. There had been some cuts a few years ago, but the situation had seemed to have stabilized.


BU hasn't released its 10 day census yet, but according to the article I mention below, first year students may be down as much as 18% from last year. That's after several years of small declines and essentially flat numbers from what I've seen of BU's data. With the BU cuts announced so close to the beginning of the academic year, it was clear this fall's numbers would be bad.


BU has indicated campus visit numbers for next year's incoming class are breaking records. Hopefully VU is seeing a similar trend with campus visits. I don't know if VU has publicly indicated how things are going on that front.


I can't post external links, but the article I mentioned above is entitled 'Local Colleges Remain Hopeful as Enrollment Numbers Dip' from centralillinoisproud.com (WMBD TV in Peoria), posted on July 20, 2023.

[crusadermoe]

I think I am stating the obvious. But the Moody's rating is highly relevant because it guides the interest rate for any VU debt rollover we need to do or want to do.

I don't know the Bradley rating from Moody.  And yes, I was ALSO surprised by the big Bradley cuts because not long ago there was an article about some very large grants that seemed usable for budgetary use.  Not going to take the time to chase it down. So maybe I am wrong. 

The flagships are staying even and even growing slightly due to their brand and generous grants to in-state kids.  They have some budget shortfalls, but percent wise not severe and they have plenty of fat to cut.  Cutting the the swarm of new hired diversity officers alone could probably make flagship budget cuts attainable.

[historyman]

(WMBD TV in Peoria)

World's Most Beautiful Drive

[David81]

Again my friends, take a look at the home page of VU's website: https://www.valpo.edu How does it sell the University? What qualities does it project about the school? Does it make you want to learn more? If you're like me, you come up with a big zero.