Enrollment numbers

[crusadermoe]

Thinking WAY outside the box here I guess.   You built brand new Beacon Hall and renovated Guild-Memorial.  When students rising in grades into Soph-Senior they are more likely to choose off-campus housing for various reasons. 

So why not devote your very best dormitories to freshman housing.  In their new year you want to keep track of them and maybe mom and dad can let go of Johnny or Jenny if they can assure themselves each will have more comfy room in which to face the cruel new adult world. 

Then the kids as sophomores upward either wash out or they can seek their way into new places like the apartments that are right freakin' next to the campus.

[crusadermoe]

Wow. That was the policy when I was there.  I just figured they had been forced out of that policy by modern expectations families have now. 

Oh....maybe that's a factor in our recruitment? 

Most of the State Univs now have university "affiliated" apartments (privately built and owned) in which four kids get their own bedroom and bathroom and they can do it as sophomores...even freshmen.  The prices often not hugely more than dormitories and you get more days for the price because you don't get locked out all summer or during school breaks.   

[David81]

D81, can you explain more what you want the website's front page to say? Or give an example of one that's better? So many unis now just seem to basically fill the homepage with large images cycling, and that is what Valpo has. I agree it's probably under-utilizing a chance to pitch Valpo in some distinctive way, but am just not sure what a better example that gives more content-punch might be. I feel like a lot of them really make a lot out of location if they're in a popular city that offers partiuclar resources to students, but what is Valpo going to say, "We're not Gary!"? Honestly, that is is how a lot of Valparaiso folk understand the region, but you can hardly put that in glowing letters on the website.

valpo22, if you really believe that all that VU has to offer or clarify is that "We're not Gary!," then perhaps it's time to call it day for VU. But I assume you're being facetious, so I'll offer a serious response.

So my personal choice for a new VU tagline has been: "Values. Vocation. Valparaiso." In other words, instead of fighting this professional training vs. liberal arts battle, embrace the fact that at a school like VU, you can learn some valuable skills that will help you earn a living and think about some big picture questions about what kind of person you want to be. And that tagline should be a prominent part of the homepage.

But regardless of how the University wants to define itself, that message should be made clear, along with a much better selection of permanent and cycling content.

By contrast:

DePaul -- Yes, I know DePaul has Chicago and VU doesn't. But their homepage it does a better job at other things too.
https://www.depaul.edu/Pages/default.aspx

Bradley -- I know they're struggling like VU. But their homepage does a better job selling the school.
https://www.bradley.edu

Drake -- A lot more going on there, including much better cycling visuals.
https://www.drake.edu

Dayton -- "Come Fly With Us" -- OK, so VU can't claim the Wright Brothers. But the home page tells more of their story. The posted video is a little too intense for my druthers, but at least they're making the effort to share who they are.
https://udayton.edu

[crusadermoe]

Here is a newer Bradley story on August 29 after the first one July 31.   

This article divulges the Bradley enrollment drop. The BU president says there is 25% excess capacity in midwest higher education  and that midwest colleges discount their tuitions by 64%.  Yikes!!

[crusadermoe]

https://www.nprillinois.org/illinois/2023-08-29/bradley-university-looks-to-finalize-cost-cutting-decisions-by-end-of-the-year

[wh]

I apologize in advance if this is old news. I haven't been following the enrollment thread for awhile. I noticed that the Fall Headcount for 2023-24 has been posted. I threw a few numbers together for comparison with last fall. If my math is correct, headcount appears to have declined by about 3%. Not what we were hoping, but far from cataclysmic, IMO. Keep grinding, Valpo. Better days are ahead!

Total enrollment
2023 2868
2022 2964
Diff.    -96 (-3.3%)

Graduate enrollment
2023 591
2022 609
Diff.   -18 (-3.0%)

Undergrad enrollment
2023 2277
2022 2355
Diff.     -78 (-3.3%)

https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/institutional-research/enrollment-data/

Please free to check my math for accuracy.

[crusadermoe]

Looks right.  And if you dig deeper, you will find that the number of census 2023-2024 enrolled SENIORS s larger than enrolled freshmen by a net of more than 70. 

So next fall you need 70 more just to pull even with this year's number before you start gaining. This is going to be tough. But as WH says, "keep grinding."  I do like David81 tag line of three V's.  But execution is equally important or more important than a magic bullet.

[David81]

We've had discussions here about how the decline in younger folks seeking college degrees might affect VU, including the phenomenon of those affirmatively passing on college. Well, whether it's at VU or elsewhere, it appears that we're seeing some pushback on the trashing of a college degree, including research demonstrating noticeably shorter average lifespans for those who do not have a 4-year degree. It's a long url to ensure free access:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/opinion/life-expectancy-college-degree.html?unlocked_article_code=m9VE3rTdHw5CNjEJuU02xA8VYDxRW_ernJUv6zHjYu9qrPGtqKtbdhlO-H9UYGUfaFVW89AcPprUfr6-gAvZXj5Q-kfrM7WOpt28m1pi6e8QHqmw0fPw7bYcidnoNhYCH2ILNdDdmDV7RbKoOOwWvvpRMqXLndJbrZociwDhBuKHXkl6t2ytaehT33Rp6g-wUAvnzcHd5ccHK-RGTUudJy-wPW6UDFN8u3RHxkzmkXw-6V64jNzO9aS5iCAjVOjJ9WEUZ2l7IbQ7Ed0IHHcOC0j0BVtAguioMaP8fP_-FcACgCgToz84zlsk7vAEGtWoKeZIr01ftYW4kwlE5Lv5ciJ7q2BmK1j7_A&smid=url-share

[crusadermoe]

There would be a long story behind this. If you mix in ALL of our age 25+ Americans I am not surprised that the whole 25+ U.S. adults group is dying younger than in Europe or Japan. I suspect that comes from have higher crime rates, drug crises, and dangerous farm and construction work done on our huge land parcelss and buildings.   

Intuitively I am guessing that the gap between 4-year degree graduates and a sub-group of those 25+ year old adults is FAR NARROWER. The East Coast elitist professionals typically view the world this way. A more helpful comparison would be to compare the 4-year graduates to sub-group of 25+ who have 2-year degrees (data systems or health) or are certified trades people. Those options are available to the smart kids otherwise capable who might be opting our of 4-year degrees.   

[vu84v2]

As an empiricist who reviews for major academic journals, I see problems with the one or more studies associated with this book. I pulled up their publication on this in the American Economic Review (one of the most elite journals in the country) and their previous publication on this subject in another journal so that I could get a look at their empirical analysis. While admittedly I did not read the papers in detail, a quick scan and some basic searches indicated that there was no assessment of endogenous effects. Specifically, there is no analysis regarding whether there are factors that directly affect both the independent variable (whether someone goes to college) and the outcome (lifespan). I am sort of baffled at how the editor and reviewers in a very top economic journal - where exceptional econometric methods are sacred - did not require this. Heck, they did not even call out endogenous effects as a limitation of the study.

My view is that the findings are correlation only and that you cannot take anything meaningful away from this study.

[valpo95]

For a bit of perspective on enrollment numbers, the October issue of the LCMS Reporter (the monthly newspaper of the LCMS) just arrived. My wife is a Concordia Seward grad and a former teacher in the system, so we get a copy for free.

Concordia Mequon (WI) Fall 2023 new traditional undergraduate enrollment (new first years) was up 7% year on year.
Concordia Ann Arbor (MI) Fall 2023 was a record high, and new traditional undergraduate enrollment was an all-time record. New enrollment at AA was still only 370, yet this was up 60% since 2013.
Concordia Seward (NE) Fall 2023 had the highest new full time undergrads in 50 years

The article didn't list anything about the other campuses, yet it does show there is a potential market for Lutheran-affiliated undergraduate education. If I were President Padilla, I would be asking some hard questions about how those campuses could be growing enrollment while Valpo is not.

[78crusader]

For YEARS now I have advised anyone who would listen that we need to renew our emphasis on recruiting Lutheran kids since, you know, we brand ourselves as an "independent Lutheran university." I pointed out that Lutheran kids were attending college SOMEWHERE. 55 Lutheran kids in last year's freshman class is a joke.

The stats on the enrollment #s for the Concordia schools posted by valpo95 are completely disheartening. I'm done - finished - trying to get VU to adjust its recruitment strategy which, if we go by the numbers for the past 10-20 years, is NOT working.

There are a lot of smart people running this place, to be sure, but they don't seem to make smart choices in a lot of areas.

(I have to say this - at a get together of 12 VU grads recently, only 1 thought the Beacon name was a good idea. And since we play Drake this weekend, I've heard from 5 or 6 from my Drake Law colleagues, all but one of whom gave me grief about the Beacon name and our mascots (if you can call a cartoon dog a mascot). Point is, this name change (the election results were never made public, to my knowledge) and mascots are a flat -out embarrassment to this University.)

Sorry, in a pessimistic mood today.

Paul

[crusadermoe]

Padilla might not understand yet the size of the LCMS school system all the way down into K-12 and know the historic strong Valpo pipeline of the 1950s-1990s.  The ELCA basically has zero high schools and grade schools. So the LCMS kids are easier to pinpoint.

My sense from afar is that Padilla is a pragmatic man. Once he understands the Valpo78 observations of foolish neglect and poor execution in that LCMS pipeline, he may be very irritated. Heckler seemed to be more of a dreamer with an ear more drawn to ideology.

Padilla: "So let me understand this,...there are x hundred kids graduating from an LCMS pipeline each year? And they were historically a core of your enrollment?  And we enrolled how many this year?  Last year?  Last 20 years? When did that trend start? What did we change?  And what were some reasons?  He's a lawyer. I would not want to be in that witness stand.

[vu72]

For YEARS now I have advised anyone who would listen that we need to renew our emphasis on recruiting Lutheran kids since, you know, we brand ourselves as an "independent Lutheran university." I pointed out that Lutheran kids were attending college SOMEWHERE. 55 Lutheran kids in last year's freshman class is a joke.

The stats on the enrollment #s for the Concordia schools posted by valpo95 are completely disheartening. I'm done - finished - trying to get VU to adjust its recruitment strategy which, if we go by the numbers for the past 10-20 years, is NOT working.

There are a lot of smart people running this place, to be sure, but they don't seem to make smart choices in a lot of areas.

(I have to say this - at a get together of 12 VU grads recently, only 1 thought the Beacon name was a good idea. And since we play Drake this weekend, I've heard from 5 or 6 from my Drake Law colleagues, all but one of whom gave me grief about the Beacon name and our mascots (if you can call a cartoon dog a mascot). Point is, this name change (the election results were never made public, to my knowledge) and mascots are a flat -out embarrassment to this University.)

Sorry, in a pessimistic mood today.

Paul

So if I understand your point correctly, Lutheran kids would be flocking to Valpo if we were the Bulldogs and have a fierce looking dog as a mascot, but certainly won't be coming because we are Beacons and have a friendly, kids favorable pair of gentle pooches?

In the immortal words of John Mcenroe, "you've got to be joking!"

[VULB#62]

The first three paragraphs are the meat of 78's post. And he makes a valid argument. But I recall some time ago that Padilla flagged that as a recruiting priority going forward. And rightly so.

[vu72]

Totally agree. I have written to numerous VP's of Recruitment on same. It was the Beacon/dogs thing that I found preposterous.

[KreitzerSTL]

I recall that some time ago that Padilla flagged that as a recruiting priority going forward. And rightly so.

Meanwhile, the prez is on his third VP of enrollment. If the answer is obvious, and this has been a priority for a while, where's the disconnect? Does anyone think we'll see VP #4 in 2024?

[valpotx]

I will continue to say that you can definitely hope for a strong Lutheran pipeline and I respect that view, but the fact is that you are tying your university to a dwindling population of folks that care about religion of any kind.  What are the %'s of the folks at those Concordia schools who actually identify as Lutheran?  My generation (Gen X/Millenial border) is a lot less religious versus the prior generation.  The two generations (Millenial & Z) after mine are even less religious than my generation.  It is only going to continue this direction with future generations. 

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/09/13/modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america/#:~:text=The%20Center%20estimates%20that%20in,Buddhists%20%E2%80%93%20totaled%20about%206%25.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/09/13/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades/

[valpo95]

valpotx, your point about the demographic headwinds is well taken. I don't think anyone would suggest an exclusive focus on a declining population. Yet it begs the question why can Concordia Ann Arbor, Mequon and Seward be growing their undergraduate populations, while Valpo is declining or at best treading water? If VU's recruitment strategy is to focus on a different population, that doesn't seem to be working, either.

[David81]

The decline of religious identity in Gen Z has been well documented, but so has VU's failure to recruit kids from Lutheran high schools been a steady point made on this board for several years. VU doesn't have to corner the market on graduates of Lutheran schools, but shouldn't it be able to bring in at least another, say, 30-40 Lutheran kids each year?

[David81]

(I have to say this - at a get together of 12 VU grads recently, only 1 thought the Beacon name was a good idea. And since we play Drake this weekend, I've heard from 5 or 6 from my Drake Law colleagues, all but one of whom gave me grief about the Beacon name and our mascots (if you can call a cartoon dog a mascot). Point is, this name change (the election results were never made public, to my knowledge) and mascots are a flat -out embarrassment to this University.)

Sorry, in a pessimistic mood today.

Paul

C'mon Paul, had the Beacons given Drake a hearty beating on the football field on Saturday, your pals woulda been singing a different tune.

A school down the road has a dang leprechaun as a mascot. All it takes is a winning team (OK, not today against Louisville) to turn a mascot into a big whatever.

[crusadermoe]

Without clear enrollment strategy and tactics you can't succeed because you can't recruit each of the 1 million or more 12th graders every year. Somewhere in the "strategic plan" internal details there must be a target number of students from Lutheran high schools. If that target is absent, then it speaks more loudly about Lutheran identity than a conservative target.

VU72, despite his numerous efforts, has never heard assurance of this priority or seen evidence that it gets carried out.

Yes, ValpoTX is absolutely right that Lutherans as a church body are decreasing and that it can't become a dominant strategy. But is logical to start there in defining your targets since it can be rapidly identified. I think there may be several Lutheran high schools who graduate half or more of their classes as non-Lutherans. If those parents and students were open to Lutheran influence, then they are certainly higher than the vague pools of kids with no family or school affinity.

[vu72]

Without clear enrollment strategy and tactics you can't succeed because you can't recruit each of the 1 million or more 12th graders every year. Somewhere in the "strategic plan" internal details there must be a target number of students from Lutheran high schools. If that target is absent, then it speaks more loudly about Lutheran identity than a conservative target.

VU72, despite his numerous efforts, has never heard assurance of this priority or seen evidence that it gets carried out.

Yes, ValpoTX is absolutely right that Lutherans as a church body are decreasing and that it can't become a dominant strategy. But is logical to start there in defining your targets since it can be rapidly identified. I think there may be several Lutheran high schools who graduate half or more of their classes as non-Lutherans. If those parents and students were open to Lutheran influence, then they are certainly higher than the vague pools of kids with no family or school affinity.

To put some numbers to it, LCMS records from 2021-2022, show 17,388 high school kids attending their schools.  Assuming 25% are seniors, that's 4,347 target kids to begin with. BTW, that is a total enrollment gain of over 1000 from the year before.  While ELCA statistics are more difficult to find, they do count 1400 schools under their denomination but most are elementary and pre-school.  Surprisingly, WELS has a number of Lutheran High Schools as well. 

It will take an entire change of direction driven by money--no doubt, but it is doable. As an example of a change of direction, witness the following: A couple of Sundays ago, my little Lutheran Church (maybe 350 members with weekly attendance of about 175) located in suburban Dallas, was visited by the President of Texas Lutheran University where she delivered the sermon. Now, we might have 5 kids graduating this year at the most, yet she showed up to promote her University.  THAT, is a concerted effort. Lord, let it be done.

[VULB#62]

Just some questions to which I don't have solid answers about a Lutheran-specific target sub-market. 

> For starters, does VU maintain an up-to-date database of all US Lutheran Churches?

> Does every LCMS church receive a poster with detachable contact info from the Valparaiso University admissions/recruitment office every September?  How about other Lutheran synods/whatevers?

> Does VU maintain an up-to-date database of all US Lutheran high schools and HS guidance offices?

> Does every Lutheran HS guidance office (regardless of LCMS, ELCA, etc.) receive Valpo recruiting posters annually?

> Are there specific, multiple, mass mailings (both electronic and snail) regularly sent directly to Lutheran HS guidance personnel?

I'm not even going into direct phone/text/personal outreach strategies given how small the staff is.

[vu84v2]

Need to brag a little on the College of Engineering:
-Career placement rate for 2023 graduates: 100% (meaning they landed a job, are pursuing graduate work, or are performing military service).
-Current enrollment is 29.1% women and 18.4% from underrepresented groups.