Enrollment numbers

[vu84v2]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/02/college-applications-rebounded-by-22percent-this-yearheres-why-.html

Looks like college applications are up 22% this year. Hopefully we are executing well.

The more important figure is that the data suggests that the number of applicants is up by 13%.

[valpopal]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/02/college-applications-rebounded-by-22percent-this-yearheres-why-.html

Looks like college applications are up 22% this year. Hopefully we are executing well.

The more important figure is that the data suggests that the number of applicants is up by 13%.

I believe Valpo enrollment will be up this year; how much, it is too early to tell.

[crusadermoe]

It would be interesting to know how many of Valpo's applicants are in that top income quintile. When you need to charge $40,000 tuition plus room and board you need quite a few of those high income folk.  Otherwise we end up discounting over 50% like we do now.

Certainly execution of the plan would be a big factor per the last post. As John Mckay of the winless Buccaneers said in their second year when asked about his team's execution said, "I'm in favor of it."   

[vu72]

It would be interesting to know how many of Valpo's applicants are in that top income quintile. When you need to charge $40,000 tuition plus room and board you need quite a few of those high income folk.  Otherwise we end up discounting over 50% like we do now.

Certainly execution of the plan would be a big factor per the last post. As John Mckay of the winless Buccaneers said in their second year when asked about his team's execution said, "I'm in favor of it."   

The Valpo websites shows total cost (some estimates) of $60,488 for a semester but adds that on balance students "only" pay $14,709 of tuition.  So if the total cost is $60,488 and tuition net cost is $14,709 then the out-of-pocket net cost is $31,797.

They also say the average student gets $38,000 is assistance, which would bring the net cost down to "only" $22,488.  Some where we have an unaccounted for $8000?

I any event, it costs A LOT.  Not sure a bunch of lower income folks are going to be heading to Valpo anytime soon.

[crusader05]

Extra costs outside of tuition will include student fees, meal plans, and Housing so that's where the extra is coming from.

My guess is that lower income people will qualify for Pell Grants plus scholarships based on merit that help alleviate their cost while those that have high academic achievement but come from wealthy families get the merit/academic scholarships. The people who pay the most are probably those whos students come from a high income family but don't hit the upper level of academic achievement as they will be less likely to receive support on either end.

Most universities sticker costs are not reflective of what they actually pay because of budgeting for scholarships but a high discount rate with decreased enrollment is diffiuclt (it's also why endowment is important because he allows for discounts without taking it out of the annual flow).

[vu72]

From Valpo's undergrad cost page:

Tuition            $43,400
General Fee        1,396
Room                 7,956
Meals                 4,916
Books & supplies 1,200
Personal             1,720
Grand Total      $60,488

[crusadermoe]

Ugh.  As a parent, nothing bugged me more than the "general fee."

[wh]

From extensive wh extended family experience over the past 3 years and continuing, Valpo is giving some nice discounts relative to several competitors. The biggest challenge IMO is sticker shock scaring people off from even applying. That happened 3 years ago with my oldest grandchild. I suggested VU, but my son and daughter-in-law said it's too expensive (from seeing the sticker). Based on a comment I recall '72 making on the message board about big discounts, I told them don't give up so easily. They applied and got a great net price (relatively speaking). After all that, she chose DePaul over Valpo anyway, and Dad and Mom are paying about $8,000/yr more. Sometimes, you just can't help your loved ones. lol

[crusader05]

One thing I have heard the new enrollment manager is focused on is how we communicate our cost and financial aid to better eliminate the sticker shock and get it out earlier in the process so you have a better chance to talk people through it all vs them seeing it and bailing.

[crusadermoe]

Wondering what the early comp numbers are showing versus last year:  Applications, deposits, etc.  Early buyouts have been driven by low enrollment revenue obviously. Let's hope we hit bottom last year.

[valpo tundra]

Fortunately, they are way up over the last two years as of now, close to 750. Could be good fortune that the pandemic is having less of an effect now or maybe it's the work of the new V.P. for Enrollment, or both.

[vu84v2]

The 750 number must be applications, since it is way too early for deposits (deadlines for deposits are usually late Spring).

While increased applications could be a positive indicator, one must temper any enthusiasm from applications. Once a high school student does one application, it is easy to do more (via the Common App.). Further, Valparaiso (like many universities) does not have an application fee for undergraduates. Deposits is a much better (but not perfect) indicator.

[NotBryceDrew]

750 cannot be apps, even in the last few years we had a few thousand applications total with many of them front loaded. We would be way way behind if that is purely the number of applications.

[crusader05]

I think that 750 was their goal and that, from what I've heard, all their metrics clearly have them on track to meet that goal or even exceed it at this time but they haven't actually reached 750 yet.

I do know they are ahead of the last two years in regards to deposits and that the next few months are busy stretches for admissions with time on the road trying to get admitted students to visit campus and also increase the recruiting for juniors/sophomores.

Transfer numbers remain an issue and I believe that graduate numbers are increasing but also still are an area where increased improvement can help immensely.

A couple other pieces I've heard is that they have a larger amount of success when students come to campus for a visit day which I'm sure isn't that surprising and so they have really been working hard with the departments to increase visit day attendance and having more targeted events focused on majors and other interest areas.

[vu84v2]

750 cannot be apps, even in the last few years we had a few thousand applications total with many of them front loaded. We would be way way behind if that is purely the number of applications.

You may be right, but it cannot be deposits since it is too early for that number of deposits (I would expect that a good number for deposits right now would be 50-100. It could be something like acceptances or financial aid applications.

[crusadermoe]

Let's hope that the application numbers are really favorable apples to apples. 

Is Padilla in St. Louis?  I wonder if anyone is there and able to learn a bit more about where things stand. Usually they do some kind of pre-game party and that could offer some informal scoop and/or an actual group gathering Q&A?

[vu72]

Let's hope that the application numbers are really favorable apples to apples. 

Is Padilla in St. Louis?  I wonder if anyone is there and able to learn a bit more about where things stand. Usually they do some kind of pre-game party and that could offer some informal scoop and/or an actual group gathering Q&A?

It's been well publicized that President Padilla was holding a brunch on SATURDAY (So I guess he is guaranteeing a win today!!)

[crusadermoe]

Thanks.  Didn't know that was the case.  Good for him.

[valpopal]

The Wall Street Journal noted last week the difficult atmosphere for colleges, especially private institutions, in this spring enrollment period due to the exploding inflation rate: "during the pandemic, colleges have faced financial difficulty from lower enrollment, Covid-related expenses, and pressure to increase salaries. Still, this past January saw a 7.5% rise in consumer-price index year over year, but four-year private college tuition rose only 2.1%." This was before the spikes in prices at the gas pump and in various markets related to the Ukraine situation, which will raise the inflation rate to a higher level and could not have come at a worse time. Psychologically, as well as economically, the price viewed daily at the gas pump or in the grocery aisle influences average Americans' spending decisions, including college choices.


Valpo already committed to not hiking tuition this year as a marketing tool; therefore, the inflation rate and increased cost of operations will be felt even more. Additionally, as high-school students' families make decisions about college at this time of year, they are likely to be reluctant to commit to private universities with higher expenses, particularly if they are seeing their personal savings tied to the stock market steadily and dramatically decreasing. These are some unexpected headwinds impacting Valpo during this crucial time in the admissions cycle, and I think the near future becomes uncharted territory. The uncertain consequences of today's unfortunate economic environment, which was the last thing needed as the Covid conditions improve, make any previously optimistic prediction about enrollment numbers unreliable.

[crusadermoe]

Agreed that there are more variables than ever. in admissions forecast.  It makes sense that the common application will shoot them out to more and moer schools. And parents would pay deposits to multiple schools to hedge those $250-ish deposits against a $100,000+ investment.

But all caveats aside, there must be some way to compare apples to apples. Budget decisions probably sharpen up pretty soon for the school year 2022-2023 and obviously there will be implications. Can anyone cut through the noise and learn the year-to-year comps on:

# Applications completed
# Deposits

[NotBryceDrew]

Wow thanks for the great insight 22.

A 574 increase in apps in one year seems great, hopefully it is.

A delta of 8 deposits like you mentioned is within error at this point in time.

That 392 in 2020 makes sense as someone at the university maybe the CFO in like Feb/ March 2020 mentioned how well admissions had been tracking year to date compared to prior years. Then Covid happen a month ish later.

Hopefully we can convert a great number of the admits down the stretch.

[tjn2004]

and new or incoming Deans (Engineering and A&S)

What happened to Kilpinen?

[crusader05]

He is taking a year sabbatical and returning to faculty afterward from what I've heard.

[valpo95]

In addition to dean changes at Engineering and Arts & Sciences,  Susan VanZanten stepped down as dean of Christ College in July of 2021. Jennifer Prough is the interim dean.

[crusadermoe]

Wow, that's great to see the data. It's strange that deposits for fall 2022 are trailing the 2020 stats despite the big apps increase.

But you have to think that the high energy that has generated the big 2022 increase will bear fruit soon. Let's hope for the best!