Enrollment numbers

[vu84v2]

Judging enrollment progress on applications does not necessarily give you the best indication since it is easy (with common app, etc.) to apply to many many schools. It is not bad that applications have gone up, but deposits (even though they are not large amounts) is more of a commitment.  Bottom line is that the colleges and administration must have a constant focus on all stages of the process and not rejoice when one indicator early in the pipeline looks promising.

[humbleopinion]

It seems that this is going to be an outlier year as many 2020 and 2021 high school graduates have waited to enter college.  I have a nephew who is a national merit finalist who has been wait-listed on first tier (Ivy League) and second tier schools and has been told that this is the reason.  He has been accepted at Valpo, but he won't be making his decision until later in the spring. 

If Valpo has a large freshman class next fall, that won't be an indication that it is the beginning of a trend, as it is one year with a surplus of students entering college.  The university will have to be careful in its decision making as the temptation would be to accept more to get the revenue, but they shouldn't bloat the faculty, facilities, and staff to accommodate one class.

[crusader05]

it might not be an outlier year for us depending on where we land. Last year the highest tier elites and state colleges saw enrollment surges while privates in general saw declines. Some of this was due to elite schools announcing they were waiving their testing requirements which led to a lot more students throwing their hat in the ring and for state schools it was cost.  MIT has just announced it's returning it's testing requirement again so we will see what some of the other high prestige schools do in a year or two as well.  State schools will continue to take as many people as possible as well.  If that trend continues as well as with students who took a gap year applying it could be that strain is only really seen in certain places as well.

[vu84v2]

For sure, I didn't mean to suggest we should expect any unique bumper crop of a year or that there's any cause for jubilation and unwise hiring.  My cheery-sounding post earlier was just in hopes the uni might be able to hold enrollment close to steady from last Fall to this upcoming Fall.

Overall, the 'new student headcount' for the undergraduates (which I think includes new freshman + transfers, but which doesn't account for students who transfer *away* from the student body count) has been falling fast the last couple years: https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/institutional-research/enrollment-data/

1092 (2016)
1065 (2017)
969 (2018)
812 (2019)
790 (2020)
737 (2021)

So the fact that the 2022 deposits are only slightly behind last March's seemed heartening, insofar as a tentative -6 student decline is flatter/better than a -30 or -50 loss from year to year. Just hoping to see the bottom of the slide!

At a minimum, Valpo needs to replace the outgoing students - otherwise it is continuing to go in the wrong direction (albeit due to the aforementioned issues regarding 2020 and 2021). It probably has changed a bit, but this suggests that the organizational goal that everyone holds themselves accountable for is 969. There should be no rejoicing, rewards, etc. for anything under that number.

[crusader05]

The issue with those numbers is that the top three were all really high, and in one case, record numbers for enrollment. So thinking we need to get back to almost 1000 is probably not going to happen and it definitely shouldn't anytime soon as I believe at that time one other concern was the university really wasn't staffed for that amount of students and it was difficult. If that was an issue pre pandemic prior to layoffs there's no way the current structure of the university could handle that many now.  I think I remember hearing that the general consensus is that getting to around 800 consistently is what the university will need for stability without a significant shrinking of faculty and staff. Padilla has said that our pattern of having highs and lows in enrollment is not good and so he would prefer a slow and stable growth to a reasonable number and consistently hitting that target.

[crusadermoe]

The massive drop from fall 2017 to fall 2018 (157 students) was massive and had nothing to do with COVID.  COVID seems to shake everything up so who knows what all the factors were then and now.

As a result, predictions for fall 2022 seem to be an really rough science now.  So how do you estimate a faculty and staff need in time to budget accurately?  I don't envy Pres. Padilla. Even if we get some windfall endowment gifts they won't move the needle a lot this year or next. 

[Valpo1993]

I have never posted here.  Mainly just read basketball information.  Both my wife and I graduated from VU in 93.    Both my kids were accepted into VU.    One went to Purdue and the other went to IU.   Don't get me wrong.   I loved my time and VU and go back often.    However, after visiting my kids I can see why they wanted to go to IU and Purdue.    In terms of campus and surrounding towns those two schools have so much more to offer.   

[vu72]

I have never posted here.  Mainly just read basketball information.  Both my wife and I graduated from VU in 93.    Both my kids were accepted into VU.    One went to Purdue and the other went to IU.   Don't get me wrong.   I loved my time and VU and go back often.    However, after visiting my kids I can see why they wanted to go to IU and Purdue.    In terms of campus and surrounding towns those two schools have so much more to offer.   

Apples to Oranges. Gigantic to tiny. 500 person lectures to getting to know your professors--all of which teach--not graduate assistants.  I presume your kids are very smart. No knock on them.  Valpo isn't a "party school" and if West Lafayette was such a big thing, it's only an hour's drive from Valpo.

[vu84v2]

Not sure. I think it can be something of a toss-up, in terms of professor attention. To be sure, Valpo doesn't have so many of those really massively anonymous lecture hall classes, and maybe even no 500-student lectures on campus -- but don't forget, the teaching load is higher. So for example, if a R1 state school professor is teaching classes of 60 students but has just 2 courses a semester, and if a Valpo prof is teaching classes of 30 but has 4 courses of a semester, then they each have 120 students either way to keep track of. So that's a toss-up in terms of how much personalized attention the prof can really give to each student and their problem sets or essay writing or whatever. And the SLAC prof is going to be running around a lot more prepping/physically teaching the 4 courses x 3 (MWF) meetings = 12 rather than 6 sessions a week. The class sizes may be smaller in terms of student experience, but the profs are spread a lot thinner prepping, grading and even just showing up & teaching that many more classes themselves.

I do still believe in the value of the small liberal arts university as a real draw; it's just that Valpo will need to somehow retain that personalized attention in this midst of these budget constraints and rising course enrollment caps & course teaching loads, or else there really won't be a reason for students to choose Valpo over PNW or Purdue after all.

You are missing something in your estimates of professors' time. The research load at Purdue, Indiana and other R1s is dramatically higher. Faculty are expected to publish more and publish in the highest tier journals. The mix of research - teaching - service at an R1 like Purdue is probably 70 - 20 - 10. At Valpo, the faculty are expected to publish, but not as often and in a broader and lower tier set of journals. Thus, the mix is probably 30 - 60 - 10. It is safe to assume that an average tenured or tenure track faculty member at Valpo spends twice the time teaching and performing teaching related work (prepping, grading, meeting with students, etc.) than a faculty member at Purdue spends. Bottom line, Valpo does have an advantage over R1s for students who value developing relationships with students - because the faculty at Valpo are allowed more time to do that (and are expected to do so).

[vu84v2]

valpo22...a few additions to your comments.

-You are right that most tenured and tenure track professors at R1s are teaching one course per term, but most are not teaching large lecture classes. They are teaching Masters or PhD level classes. They get first choice of what courses they teach and the very upper level classes can only be taught by tenured faculty.
-I am not sure if this is what you were implying, but the time spent on research is not only applicable to faculty in hard sciences and engineering. It also applies to all business disciplines and liberal arts (though liberal arts may involve publishing books instead of publishing in journals). The only area where this may not be applicable is health sciences (nursing, physical therapy), since most faculty are active practitioners (regardless of the type of university). You are correct that grant applications play into this as well.

An idea from this is that, for students who are weighing Valpo versus R1s, Valpo offer more explicit information on what faculty do at different universities. The raw information is readily available to build a valid comparison. Not fully sure if this is a good idea and such a comparison would have far less impact when comparing Valpo to most other private schools, but it is something that I hope that student recruitment people consider.

[David81]

I wish that more high school students (and their parents) understood the educational advantages of a school where most classes are small to medium sized and taught by full-time faculty committed to undergraduate teaching. It's a qualitatively different and better learning experience, and one that hopefully VU can capitalize on to a greater degree in an era where too many students are basing their decisions on bells & whistles and the U.S. News & World Report rankings.

Back in my day (77-81), there's a good argument that research was not sufficiently emphasized as being part of a professor's core work. Professors who published stood out notably, in part because they managed to do so despite the heavy teaching loads put on faculty. I think there's a better balance now. Without sacrificing undergraduate teaching, faculty research can, in turn, enliven classes, enhance the school's reputation, and contribute to building the world's knowledge.

[NotBryceDrew]

One week out from May 1st any indication of how we are looking?

[crusader05]

From what I've heard they're still meeting benchmarks and they feel good about hitting their baseline number which I think is somewhere around 700-740.  There's a possibility we exceed it but they're not predicting it. They also apparently have people hired to live in a recruit from I believe Texas and, more recently, Florida, and both have started to generate interest  which will hopefully pay off down the line.

[valpotx]

From what I've heard they're still meeting benchmarks and they feel good about hitting their baseline number which I think is somewhere around 700-740.  There's a possibility we exceed it but they're not predicting it. They also apparently have people hired to live in a recruit from I believe Texas and, more recently, Florida, and both have started to generate interest  which will hopefully pay off down the line.

Very interesting about Texas.  Unless vu72 wants to take the mantle, I am still the leader for the Valpo Club of DFW, and we haven't held an event in 2 years, due to COVID.

[NotBryceDrew]

Really hoping silence from 22 post May 1st isn't a bad thing

[vu84v2]

I think it turned out okay, not sure. As of yesterday, it was 620 for total incoming freshman+transfer student deposits. Is that close enough to what they were aiming for? (some of you had said the goal was 700?) I imagine they'll keep accepting applications even through the Summer if people decide late. Maybe the news about the fire will help garner interest in the university.

620 does not seem okay...it seems like Valpo may have achieved a goal that was set too low or significantly missed a challenging, but necessary and achievable goal (or both).

After the deposit deadline, a university may get some additional deposits (you never turn anyone away) but is equally likely to have some people decide to forego the deposit (the deposit is not that large). Thus, the most likely outcome with 620 at the end of May 1st is 620.

[crusadermoe]

How does the 620 net out versus May 1 last year?  I guess it's actually net revenue anyway. $25,000 seems as good a round number as any. Who knows?

What a weird business model. It's like shopping at Kohls. Like me, you might buy a pair of socks for the sticker price of $27 and snatch it up before others see them.
Best of all you walk up to the register and flash your credit card proudly to pay just $11.  Your receipt says, "You just saved $16!"  You grin that cavity-laced smile at those folks in line behind you and you say, "Yeah baby!"

[NotBryceDrew]

Agreed since I don't think we've had the insight 22 has been able to provide in the past it is difficult to tell if that is good or bad since we don't have the past numbers.

As mentioned would need to know the number of deposits from the last number of years and the net amount per student to really know where we stand.

[valpopal]

I really do think the fire may have helped. In the last days of April, the numbers were lagging much further off compared to last year (mid 550s), but then on May 2 it bounced way up to this 620 range, so I think the publicity was perhaps a blessing in disguise.

May 1 was National College Decision Day. A rise in deposits was expected. The fire had nothing to do with the bump up.

[vu84v2]

My understanding is that, for private midwestern universities, the results (i.e. deposits) were mixed. Some universities reported significant increases, some were flat, and some had continued declines. The university that I work at (a larger private university) reported a 15% increase from 2021 and the college in which I work (professionally oriented) reported a 30% increase from 2021, so some private universities are doing pretty well. The 620 number for Valpo seems like Valpo's results had some decline. Of course, discount rate plays into this and I do not have any data on that.

[crusader05]

There are a few things to track too that won't show up in the numbers. Such as who is left in your pool of applicants.

From what I've heard is that we are running "behind" last year but ahead of two years ago but last year was lower than 2 years ago because it had a lot to do with overall applicant pool.  It sounds like this year they feel much better about the people still left in their pool than they did last year and so it ranges from people thinking it will be around 700 and others thinking it might even come in a bit higher.  Now, it doesn't seem like any of these numbers being thrown around are "good enough" but that they at least show that the decline may have stopped and there might be some opportunity for growth albeit not very much.  Also retention is still going to matter. They can pull in a higher class but if we lose more students than usual over the summer to transfers it doesn't matter when it comes to the budget.

I have also heard we continue to struggle with getting transfers in and that those numbers remain lower than both years.

[crusadermoe]

Lots of speculation here... other than '22 reporting out the actuals.  They probably lock down spending budgets by end of May so that has to be tough, especially the staffing decisions.

[NotBryceDrew]

@22 anything positive to report on your front?

[vu84v2]

Good news, freshmen deposits are no longer behind, but now up exactly level again with 2020!

Freshmen: 590 (2022), 617 (2021), 590 (2020)
Transfers: 68 (2022), 80 (2021), 101 (2020)

2020 is too low of a benchmark. Most private universities in 2020 saw a major decline because prospective students did not think they would get the high quality in-person experience. 2021 or 2019 are better benchmarks, along with the number of students who graduated or left at the end of the Spring 2022 semester.

[crusader05]

I believe our 2020 numbers were actually higher than our 2021 numbers overall but Valpo22 would know that better.