Enrollment numbers

[crusadermoe]

Enrollment forecasts for fall 2023 are awfully quiet.  They must have year-over-year data.  And no news usually isn't good news. Moody's has cited it as a major, even pivotal factor.

[crusader05]

From what I know it's tracking above where we were last year however that was happening last year too and it hit a stall so I think there's some reluctance to say anything until they get on the other side of FAFSA and "signing day"

[NotBryceDrew]

Last year had its oddities in that applications were up a good amount but we didn't get the same enrollment increase.

[crusader05]

My info was related to deposits no applications so not sure where they are tracking in comparison. I feel like there was maybe too much optimism coming out last year and people ended up with egg on their face when the final numbers hit.

[valpo95]

My info was related to deposits no applications so not sure where they are tracking in comparison. I feel like there was maybe too much optimism coming out last year and people ended up with egg on their face when the final numbers hit.

And now, we have a new VP of Enrollment.

[David81]

My info was related to deposits no applications so not sure where they are tracking in comparison. I feel like there was maybe too much optimism coming out last year and people ended up with egg on their face when the final numbers hit.

And now, we have a new VP of Enrollment.

I hope she's the right person, but a mid-year arrival makes it hard for her to have a positive influence on numbers this year. But hopefully it means she's much further ahead in planning for the next cycle.

[crusadermoe]

Absolutely, she can only affect Fall 2024 at this point.  It seems like any rush to band-aid fall 2023 cuts into a full effort for fall 2024. But then again we don't know the forecast she inherited and it might be a triage.

[David81]

I just looked back at a Valpo2022 post. Surprising numbers.

Roughly:
7.5 % Lutherans (all types)
10% Catholic
10% Baptist and non-denom

Equals:27.5% of total students "identify" as one of those Christian groups?   

So the other 72.5% consists of.whom?
The numbers seem way off the mark........hopefully.

Not sure what number he was looking at the these show Romans at 16.19 and Lutherans (all branches) at 11.5.  The balance is spread out all over the place but the biggest number is the 34.68% who either left it blank or didn't answer.

https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/files/2022/09/Denominations_All_Students_FA22.pdf

The American National Family Life Survey identifies Gen Z as having the lowest share of religious affiliation among all current generations in America:

White Evangelical Protestant (9%)
White Mainline Protestant (12%)
Black Protestant (9%)
White Catholic (5%)
Hispanic Catholic (3%)
Other/Non-White Christian (18%)
Major Non-Christian Religions (7%)
Unaffiliated (34%)

The unaffiliated figure probably includes the 9% who are atheists and the 9% who are agnostic.

This link includes a chart comparing religious affiliation by generation.
https://www.americansurveycenter.org/research/generation-z-future-of-faith/

This is among the reasons why I've suggested that VU has to find the right message that creates a bigger tent without abandoning its traditional constituencies and mission. My recommendation has been to emphasize values, as that creates room for many different perspectives and beliefs, without trying to egg on current culture wars that are getting tiresome and predictable. For some, it can be a connection or path to faith.

[valpotx]

I just looked back at a Valpo2022 post. Surprising numbers.

Roughly:
7.5 % Lutherans (all types)
10% Catholic
10% Baptist and non-denom

Equals:27.5% of total students "identify" as one of those Christian groups?   

So the other 72.5% consists of.whom?
The numbers seem way off the mark........hopefully.

Not sure what number he was looking at the these show Romans at 16.19 and Lutherans (all branches) at 11.5.  The balance is spread out all over the place but the biggest number is the 34.68% who either left it blank or didn't answer.

https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/files/2022/09/Denominations_All_Students_FA22.pdf

The American National Family Life Survey identifies Gen Z as having the lowest share of religious affiliation among all current generations in America:

White Evangelical Protestant (9%)
White Mainline Protestant (12%)
Black Protestant (9%)
White Catholic (5%)
Hispanic Catholic (3%)
Other/Non-White Christian (18%)
Major Non-Christian Religions (7%)
Unaffiliated (34%)

The unaffiliated figure probably includes the 9% who are atheists and the 9% who are agnostic.

This link includes a chart comparing religious affiliation by generation.
https://www.americansurveycenter.org/research/generation-z-future-of-faith/

This is among the reasons why I've suggested that VU has to find the right message that creates a bigger tent without abandoning its traditional constituencies and mission. My recommendation has been to emphasize values, as that creates room for many different perspectives and beliefs, without trying to egg on current culture wars that are getting tiresome and predictable. For some, it can be a connection or path to faith.

I've been saying this for years now.  Each generation becomes less religious than the previous generation.  It won't be long before more than 50% of the US is considered non-religious.  Movements like those touting Christian Nationalism or putting religion into public school systems, will only further that pace away from religion, as the youngest generation does not view such things positively.

[crusadermoe]

Reasonable points. 

I hope that the trend changes or is exaggerated somehow. If not, you are saying Valpo needs to change to conform to the realities of the market. A business would do that because it's only purpose for existence is to make a profit.  It's an existential question.

[crusader05]

I don't think Valpo necesaarily needs to change but it needs to realize the religious angle may not be as big of a draw as it once was (although if smaller lutheran colleges continue to struggle, it might benefit from being the only one left to serve a smaller pool)

But we do need to figure out how to integrate who we are and make sure non-religiously identified students see the benefit in our values. Lots of Catholic Universities have learned how to keep their Catholic identity and ethos while offering a lot more to others.

[ValpoDiaspora]

In all fairness to Valpo, I think it is harder for Valpo to figure out this Christian-yet-wider identity when Lutheranism is a pretty narrow demographic. In a way, the Catholic universities are starting from an easier place, being more able to pitch themselves to some of the growing or religiously fervent immigrant communities like Latin American/ Latino/a Catholics and African international and African American Catholics. We still have pretty strong support to from the Filipino Catholic and Vietnamese Catholic worlds. BUt the Lutheran colleges do not have many significant student demographic pools to tap into beyond the mostly declining white American and white European Lutheran populations. This is not to diss the Lutheran Church as such, since honestly the white American Catholic birthrate and observant population is dropping just as fast as the white mainline protestants, so the small Catholic colleges that used to rely on those populations are hurting too! It is just a reality of whether the church-affiliated institutions have some *other* demographic pocket or immigration dynamic that can help offset the decline in the historically white-serving US churches and universities, or not, and whether they can then navigate the identity issues of Catholic-yet-global, religious-yet-relevant to the world. So yes, maybe are ways in which the Catholic unis may be navigating this better or more easily through a stronger sense of distinctive identity or thanks to demographic relief or support from the global and immigrant Church.

But there are also ways in which the story is much the same, that schools with small endowments and waffling academic or sports notoriety are struggling and at risk of going under as enrollment drops. Whereas the rich Catholic schools with large endowments and notable academic & sports reputations are seeing ever more applicants. It is a sobering kind of snowball effect with the wealthy universities getting wealthier and the struggling universities getting closer to the edge. There have already been some small Catholic uni closures, and there could be more.

[ValpoDiaspora]

IMO, the really interesting and mostly untapped demographic is actually the charismatics/pentecostals, who are growing like gangbusters all over the world including in the US and don't have any high school or university systems of their own. They tend to be highly diverse (white, asian, Black, latino/a, everythingyou can imagine) yet not particularly interested in identity politics. Since most are from lower-economic minority communities, these immigrant Christian communities have historically attended public & community college options, just assuming that private education is out of their reach. I think it will be interesting to see if either the mainline Protestant or the flagship Catholic universities can become the 'go to' place for this growign populations of often very religious students. At WashU, I had a Brazilian-American Assemblies of God friend on full-tuition merit scholarship actually left and gave up her scholarship just because she felt out of place at such a secular private research university and opted to go back home to study somewhere nearer her family and Assemblies of God pentecostal home church in Texas. And you sometimes meet Filipino 'El Shaddai' type charismatic Catholic students who want a religious university so don't fit into the big state schools or private R1s.... but also don't fit into either the really traditionalist 'classical Western' Catholic universities nor into the more liberal/secularizing Catholic universities. So there are religious students out there, who do want higher ed but struggle to find where they fit.

[crusadermoe]

Interesting demographic.  It's good to think outside the box.  I would not have lined them up with Valpo. 

An easier group to reach might be the suburban evangelicals in the Chicago and Indy areas. They would obviously be Wheaton or Hope candidates. But Valpo has engineering and D-1 sports,  And Valpo doesn't have the strict codes and curfews etc. 

The rub there is that Valpo has been drifting pretty steadily for decades into the liberal side of the larger protestant church and then Heckler led them in a sprint!  So today's Valpo might not be welcoming to students and parents with an evangelical outlook. That of course touches the whole issue of Valpo's roots again and how it interprets them. 

[NotBryceDrew]

https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/2023/03/02/finlandia-university-end-operations-not-enroll-students-2023-2024-academic-year/?outputType=amp

Announced three weeks ago but haven't seen a post here. Finlandia is/was a private lutheran university in the UP of Michigan that is now closing. Looks like they recently held a transfer fair... Valpo was not one of the 25 schools there although no "peer" schools were either. Ideally I'd hope we pursue getting/buying admissions data since it's a lutheran school in the Midwest.

[David81]

https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/2023/03/02/finlandia-university-end-operations-not-enroll-students-2023-2024-academic-year/?outputType=amp

Announced three weeks ago but haven't seen a post here. Finlandia is/was a private lutheran university in the UP of Michigan that is now closing. Looks like they recently held a transfer fair... Valpo was not one of the 25 schools there although no "peer" schools were either. Ideally I'd hope we pursue getting/buying admissions data since it's a lutheran school in the Midwest.

Unless there's some justifiable backstory, this should be regarded as a genuine, lost opportunity. And while the buzzards circling imagery of schools looking to pick up students about to be orphaned by their school may appear unseemly, in VU's case it's an appropriate outreach to invite students who opted for another Lutheran college to apply for transfer. Am I missing something here??

[Valpo1993]

https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/2023/03/02/finlandia-university-end-operations-not-enroll-students-2023-2024-academic-year/?outputType=amp

Announced three weeks ago but haven't seen a post here. Finlandia is/was a private lutheran university in the UP of Michigan that is now closing. Looks like they recently held a transfer fair... Valpo was not one of the 25 schools there although no "peer" schools were either. Ideally I'd hope we pursue getting/buying admissions data since it's a lutheran school in the Midwest.

Unless there's some justifiable backstory, this should be regarded as a genuine, lost opportunity. And while the buzzards circling imagery of schools looking to pick up students about to be orphaned by their school may appear unseemly, in VU's case it's an appropriate outreach to invite students who opted for another Lutheran college to apply for transfer. Am I missing something here??

Some might argue, but Valpo is lightly referred to as Lutheran these days.   They don't follow much Lutheran doctrine.   They have a catholic president.  Any church service is geared to the masses.  I would say they are more of a Christian School.    A true Lutheran school is Concordia. 


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[David81]

https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/2023/03/02/finlandia-university-end-operations-not-enroll-students-2023-2024-academic-year/?outputType=amp

Announced three weeks ago but haven't seen a post here. Finlandia is/was a private lutheran university in the UP of Michigan that is now closing. Looks like they recently held a transfer fair... Valpo was not one of the 25 schools there although no "peer" schools were either. Ideally I'd hope we pursue getting/buying admissions data since it's a lutheran school in the Midwest.

Unless there's some justifiable backstory, this should be regarded as a genuine, lost opportunity. And while the buzzards circling imagery of schools looking to pick up students about to be orphaned by their school may appear unseemly, in VU's case it's an appropriate outreach to invite students who opted for another Lutheran college to apply for transfer. Am I missing something here??

Some might argue, but Valpo is lightly referred to as Lutheran these days.   They don't follow much Lutheran doctrine.   They have a catholic president.  Any church service is geared to the masses.  I would say they are more of a Christian School.    A true Lutheran school is Concordia. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's exactly why it's a lost opportunity to recover the Lutheran share of the student body. If smaller Lutheran schools are closing their doors, then VU -- even as a more cosmopolitan institution -- still has a welcoming space for them.

[VULB#62]

Finlandia attracts a different demo. Tuition is $24,500. Nonetheless, this stone should not be left unturned.

[David81]

Ten college graduates reflecting on college regrets, resonating with some of the topics we've discussed here. Long url because it's a freely accessible link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/27/opinion/college-choice-regrets.html?unlocked_article_code=TbjARc_skx07C_lWxqiZk7uSByY_BvM9JIDT0RYVkfuFsAWSwOZf2XZMsMQooQZf5-V86k9cLXIalGtcRhuaVAa4NTXy9N-_VLBxf0D4_jauT1Gr4mzPeTrTWDUzf0_M4RUD_9pMSBl5ZUE4n9O7t8mq9pSHyEELK38p88eTowzQymElnJcMXAIaso8BmluDPrWRJqDf5nGsLUk7U006uT0NKGGvPF9iwtTz-TXVML8bxwctwcxPZ5zYG9U47O6D07BLu9Q4k6eJ0Jukr_Jk3jdpBSamH-mSnWBy1OGEwXaAM2g8MF2yidMRfx0uSNuNPM9crAiroxE01HLIpQFJRAs3f9I01hhwQARHouLWrwhV&smid=url-share

[crusadermoe]

Haven't taken time to read.  But boy I hope our applicant & deposit numbers are solid year over year.  Moody's is watching.

[VULB#62]

Ten college graduates reflecting on college regrets, resonating with some of the topics we've discussed here. Long url because it's a freely accessible link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/27/opinion/college-choice-regrets.html?unlocked_article_code=TbjARc_skx07C_lWxqiZk7uSByY_BvM9JIDT0RYVkfuFsAWSwOZf2XZMsMQooQZf5-V86k9cLXIalGtcRhuaVAa4NTXy9N-_VLBxf0D4_jauT1Gr4mzPeTrTWDUzf0_M4RUD_9pMSBl5ZUE4n9O7t8mq9pSHyEELK38p88eTowzQymElnJcMXAIaso8BmluDPrWRJqDf5nGsLUk7U006uT0NKGGvPF9iwtTz-TXVML8bxwctwcxPZ5zYG9U47O6D07BLu9Q4k6eJ0Jukr_Jk3jdpBSamH-mSnWBy1OGEwXaAM2g8MF2yidMRfx0uSNuNPM9crAiroxE01HLIpQFJRAs3f9I01hhwQARHouLWrwhV&smid=url-share

Thanks for the post. Interesting views by the 10 interviewees. All but one, I think, graduated around 2000-2010. Things have changed since then, but some have not. What I was hoping to read were comments about facilities desires and balance twixt A&S and professions. Nothing on facilities.  There was one who spoke about too much A&S electives that underprepared them for a more math-intensive future. But the primary theme was student debt and how it contorts graduates' futures. Big problem. I really feel for those who are so burdened. I wish I had an answer.

[vu72]

Wartburg, another Lutheran college, was among those in agreement to accept Finlandia students.  For what it's worth, Finlandia's endowment was a whopping $5.8 million.

[usc4valpo]

Wartburg is an excellent college.

[crusadermoe]

Gosh I agree with USCValpo.  I just read the NY Times article citing "hindsight" regrets of a sample group of students.  The debt burdens are utter tragedy.  I truly feel awful for these kids.  What awful regrets.

On the other hand I wonder what the hell the parents were thinking!!!  The kids can only max out the government loans at $27,000 independently without parental sign off. How could they do that? Did they show the kid his future monthly payments and point out housing, car, insurance, and utilites alone?  My wife and I paid off over $27,000 in combined loans over 15 years.  It's a 2nd mortgage.  So those debts at $40,000+ for singles are tragic.  I can't fathom $100,000 other than for medical school.

So I took each of my two kids aside in their HS senior year and advised them not to max theirs.  I said I would bay half of the state U. cost of $10-12,000 per year and said they could go from there with any earned scholarships and part-time jobs plus summer.  i said I do advise not taking the max because of X payments. I am so proud of them. Their debts on four year graduation are $8,500 and $10,500.