Enrollment numbers

[historyman]

Wartburg is an excellent college.

Burgs and all, or was it Warts and all?

[valpopal]

Haven't taken time to read.  But boy I hope our applicant & deposit numbers are solid year over year.  Moody's is watching.

Too soon to be conclusive since college decision day is about one month away and changes in trends obviously can occur, but word is that the current year over year numbers for fall semester are positive.

[historyman]

Haven't taken time to read.  But boy I hope our applicant & deposit numbers are solid year over year.  Moody's is watching.

Too soon to be conclusive since college decision day is about one month away and changes in trends obviously can occur, but word is that the current year over year numbers for fall semester are positive.

You know it just may be a case of ANY publicity is good publicity and the item in the NY Times put Valpo in a spotlight for a while and in the minds of some high school kids trying to make a decision. "Wow, man, that must be some school, they had a O'Keefe painting."

[crusadermoe]

That would be great. Parents who know art probably have a high income.  As we know the net tuition a freshman class pays is even more important to your budget than the number of students. 

So if you are at CFO of Valpo you want to bring on the smart, artsy rich kids in lieu of the smart high discount kids!  In our fluid world of multiple depositing parents it might be August before the freshmen revenue number lands.

[VULB#62]

You know it just may be a case of ANY publicity is good publicity and the item in the NY Times put Valpo in a spotlight for a while and in the minds of some high school kids trying to make a decision. "Wow, man, that must be some school, they had a O'Keefe painting."

Gosh, ya think a good basketball team that gets national exposure might come close to an O'Keefe in drawing prospective students?

[historyman]

You know it just may be a case of ANY publicity is good publicity and the item in the NY Times put Valpo in a spotlight for a while and in the minds of some high school kids trying to make a decision. "Wow, man, that must be some school, they had a O'Keefe painting."

Gosh, ya think a good basketball team that gets national exposure might come close to an O'Keefe in drawing prospective students?

Another truth. That opportunity is again gone for a while. Probably not forever but gone for the time being.

[valpopal]

Haven't taken time to read.  But boy I hope our applicant & deposit numbers are solid year over year.  Moody's is watching.

Too soon to be conclusive since college decision day is about one month away and changes in trends obviously can occur, but word is that the current year over year numbers for fall semester are positive.

We are still two weeks away from the crucial May 1 college decision day, but indicative signs continue to be positive compared to the past two years. I believe the mild weather around Valparaiso (first time ever I didn't use my snowblower for a whole winter) and a lessening of travel concerns due to Covid have increased on-campus visits, which usually lead to a higher percentage of enrollments, especially when the ground isn't covered with snow and ice. 

[NotBryceDrew]

Three college closures in the last month:
Iowa Wesleyan - Iowa - Methodist
Medaille - Buffalo, NY - Nonsectarian
Cardinal Stritch - WI - Catholic

*technically Medaille is a merger 

[David81]

Three college closures in the last month:
Iowa Wesleyan - Iowa - Methodist
Medaille - Buffalo, NY - Nonsectarian
Cardinal Stritch - WI - Catholic

*technically Medaille is a merger 

Iowa Wesleyan U -- small Methodist college, around over 180 years, reported 2021 endowment of $9.1m.
Medaille U -- small Catholic college, reported 2022 endowment of $1.2m, merging with Trocaire College.
Cardinal Stritch U -- small Catholic college, around almost 90 years, reported 2022 endowment of $16.1m.

Smaller, very under-financed private schools like these are among the more likely casualties in the run-up to, and aftermath of, the coming demographic cliff (2027) of traditional, college-age individuals.

I'm not suggesting that VU is in the clear. My guess is that a few schools like Valpo will also fail during the next decade. I think the more significant question is whether VU will be thriving or just hanging on during this time.

[crusadermoe]

Indiana and Ohio have a ton of private colleges.  Some are loaded up like Wabash, but I suspect Evansville and some of the smallest ones are concerned.

[David81]

On my side of the woods, the Boston Globe just ran a piece, "Why the business of small colleges no longer adds up," documenting among other things very sharp enrollment declines in some of the area schools. My own university (Suffolk U. in downtown Boston) is listed among them, with a 27% total enrollment drop between 2011 and 2021.

With apologies for a possible paywall:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/04/28/metro/small-private-colleges-business-model/

At my university, some of these enrollment reductions were planned/semi-planned, such as the Law School enrollment dropping from about 1,800 to about 1,300. It helped that the Law School enrollment drop could be somewhat managed because of an aging faculty, many of whom accepted a buyout. But other units of the University were hit harder, requiring program closures, around 2015. A lot of faculty and programs simply disappeared during that time, as in "poof," here one year, gone the next.

Anyway, point is that the challenges facing Valpo are hardly unique.

[crusader05]

I mean i'd say most small colleges have that in their history, including Valpo(they almost closed the nursing college at one point, and there's been so many iterations of different programs coming and going). There have always been ebbs and flows and pendulum swings across the board. A college like Valpo, which is not a large well known state institution/one of the more elite/well endowed schools, is going to be battered a lot by these things but is still in a way more secure position than a lot of other schools.

I think that you get from surviving to thriving partially by investing where it's important and stabilizing where you can. A combination of spending and saving and taking the time to fix foundational issues. I tend to think that salaries are a foundational issue but one that can only be addressed after we stabilize and start to build. The problem in these situations is the present decisions are not popular or fun to make but have to be done with more an eye on both immediate needs and way to address future needs.

IE the only way to really and truly get salaries up without cutting programs/positions to widen the pool is to increase enrollment. A lot of the things needed to do to increase enrollment require time or money. Neither of which we have a ton of and, as you see with the paintings, decisions to try to fix the immediate problem still lead to push back and more issues.

[VULB#62]

On my side of the woods, the Boston Globe just ran a piece, "Why the business of small colleges no longer adds up," documenting among other things very sharp enrollment declines in some of the area schools. My own university (Suffolk U. in downtown Boston) is listed among them, with a 27% total enrollment drop between 2011 and 2021.

With apologies for a possible paywall:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/04/28/metro/small-private-colleges-business-model/
O
At my university, some of these enrollment reductions were planned/semi-planned, such as the Law School enrollment dropping from about 1,800 to about 1,300. It helped that the Law School enrollment drop could be somewhat managed because of an aging faculty, many of whom accepted a buyout. But other units of the University were hit harder, requiring program closures, around 2015. A lot of faculty and programs simply disappeared during that time, as in "poof," here one year, gone the next.

Anyway, point is that the challenges facing Valpo are hardly unique.

David, I checked the Globe article (no pay wall) and scoured the list of privates with solid endowments. Most weathered the decline storm and many actually grew. But I am very curious as to how Merrimack College, located in suburban Andover, MA, managed to >DOUBLE their enrollment from 2,400+ to 5,400+ in the face of everything that has been discussed.   That growth ratio was the gist of Heckler's attempt to grow enrollment.  Valpo failed, but Merrimack succeeded. Why?  Was it something in the Andover water? Did someone in the admissions department take a magic pill?   

BTW, Their endowment is $53 million. 2020-21 tuition and fees = ~$47K. They are D-I in athletics and belong to the Northeast Conference (NEC).

I focused on Merrimack because there are many similarities to Valpo. Could they be an appropriate model for Valpo to follow?

[wh]

Schools with sizable endowments relative to their enrollment often offer generous financial aid packages to students. Valpo definitely fits that mold. Unfortunately, after applying every price advantage, we're still swimming in red ink to the tune of $1.3M per month. Thus, Valpo's problem isn't price per se, its value proposition relative to price. It seems that the strategic plan does a pretty good job of addressing value proposition, but many of the initiatives appear to be well down the road before the benefits kick in.

[vu72]

does anybody know about st. olaf's or why they seem to be stable enrollment wise?

Having lived in Minnesota for many years, I know several Ole grads.  It is a quite different education model as they don't have professional schools and have a very large emphasis on music with several choirs, orchestras etc.  They are Lutheran and information I have seen indicates they are about 25% Lutheran which is way better than Valpo.  There location is prime for the Lutheran draw as Minnesota has about as many Lutherans as Catholics and it is an easy drive from the Twin Cities to St. Olaf.  Their sizable endowment is obviously a plus as well.

[David81]

On my side of the woods, the Boston Globe just ran a piece, "Why the business of small colleges no longer adds up," documenting among other things very sharp enrollment declines in some of the area schools. My own university (Suffolk U. in downtown Boston) is listed among them, with a 27% total enrollment drop between 2011 and 2021.

With apologies for a possible paywall:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/04/28/metro/small-private-colleges-business-model/
O
At my university, some of these enrollment reductions were planned/semi-planned, such as the Law School enrollment dropping from about 1,800 to about 1,300. It helped that the Law School enrollment drop could be somewhat managed because of an aging faculty, many of whom accepted a buyout. But other units of the University were hit harder, requiring program closures, around 2015. A lot of faculty and programs simply disappeared during that time, as in "poof," here one year, gone the next.

Anyway, point is that the challenges facing Valpo are hardly unique.

David, I checked the Globe article (no pay wall) and scoured the list of privates with solid endowments. Most weathered the decline storm and many actually grew. But I am very curious as to how Merrimack College, located in suburban Andover, MA, managed to >DOUBLE their enrollment from 2,400+ to 5,400+ in the face of everything that has been discussed.   That growth ratio was the gist of Heckler's attempt to grow enrollment.  Valpo failed, but Merrimack succeeded. Why?  Was it something in the Andover water? Did someone in the admissions department take a magic pill?   

BTW, Their endowment is $53 million. 2020-21 tuition and fees = ~$47K. They are D-I in athletics and belong to the Northeast Conference (NEC).

I focused on Merrimack because there are many similarities to Valpo. Could they be an appropriate model for Valpo to follow?

VULB#62, good catch, you're right that Merrimack College bears similarities to VU.

Although I'm not personally familiar with the reasons why Merrimack appears to be successful in growing its enrollment, I just lurked around their website, and read up on their strategic plan. Now, I'm not one to assume that strategic planning actually translates into anything meaningful. In higher ed, a lot of strategic planning is a combo of hot air + re-sorting the lawn furniture. That said, the Merrimack plan seems to be specific and coherent.

So folks, if you're curious, take a look at Merrimack's strategic plan:
https://www.merrimack.edu/agenda-for-the-future/

And then compare it to VU's:
https://www.valpo.edu/uplift-valpo/

Merrimack's plan seems to be much more focused, relying less on fuzzy jargon, yes?

There's an obvious emphasis on building viable graduate programs and the professional programs. And, per earnest discussions on this board, it's interesting how Merrimack is treating the liberal arts, mentioning specific social science areas that are popular and successful. Alas, at Merrimack, too, the humanities appear to be taking it on the chin, although note that it uses STEAM (the "A" referring to Arts) and not STEM. And their commitment to Mission includes developing the whole person, including ethical and moral dimensions.

I'd say that VU would benefit by taking a look at their approach to handling the challenges faced by universities in this broad category.

[vu84v2]

I think one difference between private universities that are struggling or find a way to thrive and those that go under is the degree that the university offers and emphasizes professional programs. Merrimack offers majors in multiple areas of engineering, a rich array of business disciplines, nursing and more. Compare that with Cardinal Stritch who really only offered nursing and liberal arts. Regardless of the value that one places on liberal arts - and I do think liberal arts is important for a rich education - you cannot deny that prospective students and their families are far more likely to seek a degree that will directly lead to a well-paying job. This becomes even more acute for private colleges because of their higher tuition.

Many good points raised in the prior comments, but I will add one more. A big strategic issue for universities is transitioning the makeup of their faculty to be consistent with what students and their families seek. If this were to happen in a traditional business, a good company would retrain good people to work in the new/promising/growing business - moving them from the businesses that customers no longer choose to spend their money. Sadly, people who could not transition would need to be let go. Labor is far more of a fixed cost in a university and that is a real problem that is a bigger challenge for private universities (because less size means less room to adapt). You may really value the history professor who has been there for 20 years - he or she having made a great contribution, committed to the university values, etc. But you cannot retrain that professor to teach nursing or engineering. That may be fine if it were only one history professor, but for many small private colleges it is multiple professors in history, then multiple professors in each of a variety of other liberal arts disciplines. The university ends up with the costs from 30-40 people who are great people in their discipline, but their discipline does not fit what the customer wants.

After doing a quick scan of their website, it seems like Merrimack has overcome this problem, as they seem to have quite a bit of depth in their professional disciplines from tenured and tenure-track professors along with professors of practice (these are often full-time non-PhD faculty who often bring rich career experience in a specific area to the classroom/college).

[David81]

Many good points raised in the prior comments, but I will add one more. A big strategic issue for universities is transitioning the makeup of their faculty to be consistent with what students and their families seek. If this were to happen in a traditional business, a good company would retrain good people to work in the new/promising/growing business - moving them from the businesses that customers no longer choose to spend their money. Sadly, people who could not transition would need to be let go. Labor is far more of a fixed cost in a university and that is a real problem that is a bigger challenge for private universities (because less size means less room to adapt). You may really value the history professor who has been there for 20 years - he or she having made a great contribution, committed to the university values, etc. But you cannot retrain that professor to teach nursing or engineering. That may be fine if it were only one history professor, but for many small private colleges it is multiple professors in history, then multiple professors in each of a variety of other liberal arts disciplines. The university ends up with the costs from 30-40 people who are great people in their discipline, but their discipline does not fit what the customer wants.

It appears that the Valpo's bloodletting of recent years has already sharply cut the number of faculty in the liberal arts. Many departments in the humanities and social sciences are about as lean staffed as you can get while still being able to service even a diminished number of majors in those disciplines and to teach distribution requirements for a larger number of students.

We may disagree on the degree to which higher education should be largely about "what the customer wants." When it comes to history, for example, I don't want to send future business executives, engineers, lawyers, or other professionals into the world who don't have an understanding of basic history. We're seeing the results of that ignorance over and again today, with folks of all different social and political viewpoints. So while I'm all for individual choice in what to major in, I also favor those majors being tethered to distribution requirements that ensure we are not turning out narrow-minded practitioners.

For now, at least, that's the value-added piece of studying the professions at VU. And for the exceptional students who truly get it, there aren't many places where, for example, you can get a first-rate engineering or nursing degree coupled with a first-rate liberal arts honors program via Christ College.

[VULB#62]

We may disagree on the degree to which higher education should be largely about "what the customer wants." When it comes to history, for example, I don't want to send future business executives, engineers, lawyers, or other professionals into the world who don't have an understanding of basic history. We're seeing the results of that ignorance over and again today, with folks of all different social and political viewpoints. So while I'm all for individual choice in what to major in, I also favor those majors being tethered to distribution requirements that ensure we are not turning out narrow-minded practitioners.

⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️

This!

When a college grad is stopped on the street this past December 7th and is asked on TV what they think about Pearl Harbor and they reply " Who's Pearl?" ya gotta worry for our future.  Worse, when some of my HS age grandkids have little clue as to where most of the states of the union are located on a simple map, ya gotta worry for our future. And on and on....

But I ramble. Sorry.

[vu84v2]

We are in complete agreement that we want students to learn how to think, how to have perspective, and be open-minded practitioners. And we agree that liberal arts is a key part of this (though I often think people underestimate the ability of faculty in business, engineering, nursing, etc. to also foster this in their teaching).

The issue is this: how many students major in history or art or _______ versus how many students major in accounting, nursing, computer and electrical engineering, etc.? Then, how many courses does Valpo offer when there is a major versus how many courses does Valpo offer when there is a minor or no major/minor offered? My guess, for the first question, is that the ratio is enormously weighted to the practitioner disciplines. To the second question, then, it seems that the number of liberal arts major offerings (and, thus, courses) should be trimmed (and, yes, the number of liberal arts faculty gets trimmed over time via attrition). Why invest in the number of courses necessary for a major offering (required courses plus electives) if there are only 8 students in the university with that major? How many students are in the 300 and 400 level courses?

My point: focus liberal arts more towards what you suggest and less towards meeting the needs of the few students who wish to major in those disciplines. To accomplish this, Valpo does not need to have 70 history courses in its catalog, for which maybe 15-20 are offered in a given semester. It does still need Christ College because that program is very complementary to the practitioner disciplines.

Lastly, many businesses throughout history have failed because their decision-makers prioritized what they believed was good for their customers instead of prioritizing what customers wanted and were willing to spend money on.

[valpopal]

it seems that the number of liberal arts major offerings (and, thus, courses) should be trimmed (and, yes, the number of liberal arts faculty gets trimmed over time via attrition). Why invest in the number of courses necessary for a major offering (required courses plus electives) if there are only 8 students in the university with that major? How many students are in the 300 and 400 level courses?

My point: focus liberal arts more towards what you suggest and less towards meeting the needs of the few students who wish to major in those disciplines. To accomplish this, Valpo does not need to have 70 history courses in its catalog, for which maybe 15-20 are offered in a given semester.

I have no connection to the history department other than being friends with some of the past and present faculty; however, I happened to have a datavu link to the spring 23 semester bookmarked on my computer. History has a list of about 35 (undergraduate and graduate) courses in the catalog, half the 70 you mention. Also, during this semester only 6 history classes were offered (again a fraction of your estimate) taught by three faculty members and with an average of 23 students enrolled per class. In addition, the university has a general rule that if a department wants to add a course to the catalog, another course must be dropped. Finally, these faculty are teaching a 4-credit Core course as well, and all three are conducting numerous students in internships or individualized studies pro bono since they receive no compensation for those projects.

[David81]

We are in complete agreement that we want students to learn how to think, how to have perspective, and be open-minded practitioners. And we agree that liberal arts is a key part of this (though I often think people underestimate the ability of faculty in business, engineering, nursing, etc. to also foster this in their teaching).

The issue is this: how many students major in history or art or _______ versus how many students major in accounting, nursing, computer electrical engineering, etc.? Then, how many courses does Valpo offer when there is a major versus how many courses does Valpo offer when there is a minor or no major/minor offered? My guess, for the first question, is that the ratio is enormously weighted to the practitioner disciplines. To the second question, then, it seems that the number of liberal arts major offerings (and, thus, courses) should be trimmed (and, yes, the number of liberal arts faculty gets trimmed over time via attrition). Why invest in the number of courses necessary for a major offering (required courses plus electives) if there are only 8 students in the university with that major? How many students are in the 300 and 400 level courses?

My point: focus liberal arts more towards what you suggest and less towards meeting the needs of the few students who wish to major in those disciplines. To accomplish this, Valpo does not need to have 70 history courses in its catalog, for which maybe 15-20 are offered in a given semester. It does still need Christ College because that program is very complementary to the practitioner disciplines.

Lastly, many businesses throughout history have failed because their decision-makers prioritized what they believed was good for their customers instead of prioritizing what customers want and are willing to spend money on.

But I disagree that the liberal arts curriculum should be primarily in service to business, nursing, and engineering. Rather, it serves dual purposes. First, on vocational value alone, many liberal arts majors are helpful towards employment on their own and/or are common paths to graduate and professional schools. Second, a good number of liberal arts disciplines still enroll a decent number of majors. Third, it's not just majors that count, but also minors. (E.g., VU has few Spanish majors but nearly 4 dozen minors.)

Indeed, if you study VU's own breakdown of majors and enrollment by school, then my oft-repeated point that the different schools of the University need each other to be successful becomes clearer. VU cannot survive as either a liberal arts college or a professional/technical college; enrollments in each of the major schools are rather modest on their own. Here's the breakdown, which I've posted before. (It does not appear to list Christ College, enrollment in which complements existing majors.)

https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/files/2022/09/major_minor_FA22_v2.pdf

Point being, it's likely that most of the liberal arts cuts you suggest have already been made, including waves of program closures and layoffs that left Arts & Sciences reeling. And especially to the people affected, I'd gently suggest that use of the term "trim" vastly understates the impact of that process. Make no doubt about it; this is a diminished university in the aftermath of those decisions.

[vu84v2]

Alright, so let me go to the heart of good strategic planning - you need to make decisions on where to invest which requires hard decisions on where not to invest. The problem that I have with these arguments is not the value of liberal arts, its that these arguments lead to excessive tradeoffs in budgeting decisions in which no groups get the funding necessary to be competitive. Let's say that new enrollment numbers for 2023-2024 are flat (or decline) from the prior year....where are you going to spend less? We can agree that costs from administration should be considered, but that won't balance the budget. But everyone "sharing the pain" is not strategic, it is just seeking compromise and "peace" in lieu of the pain from making hard decisions. And in difficult times, it increases the likelihood of the organization's demise because the high demand businesses lack sufficient resources to be competitive...the engine that drives revenue and margin shuts down.

And yes, this also ties back to the art sale. The President and the board made a hard choice that is consistent with core mission of the university...sell the art, fund infrastructure improvements to attract new students. A hard decision, but a necessary decision. The people who oppose the art sale offer no better solution...but are very happy to put the difficulty of finding a solution on the President and others, have no problem with it taking years for improvements to be competitive on infrastructure. They do not care about keeping the engine that drives revenue and margin going.

[valpopal]

And yes, this also ties back to the art sale. The President and the board made a hard choice that is consistent with core mission of the university...sell the art, fund infrastructure improvements to attract new students. A hard decision, but a necessary decision. The people who oppose the art sale offer no better solution...but are very happy to put the difficulty of finding a solution on the President and others, have no problem with it taking years for improvements to be competitive on infrastructure. They do not care about keeping the engine that drives revenue and margin going.

First, yes it is the job of the President and the Board to find funding solutions that preferably are deemed ethical, legal, and a benefit by all, and everyone supports this. However, let's put to bed the idea that no alternative solutions were posed by opponents of the art sale. When presented with possible alternatives by faculty in their meeting with him this semester, Padilla refused to engage in dialogue or consider options offered that did not include immediate funding by the end of spring semester so that renovation construction could begin in summer 2023.


He even objected to a possible idea floated of a short-term targeted fundraiser for $10 million. With the recent publicity and the desire by many alums and donors to keep intact the crowns of the museum collection, this could be feasible. (Indeed, had Padilla sought faculty input from the beginning of his plan last year, perhaps the short-term solution actually could have included enough funding by the end of this spring to begin renovations.) Instead, "I need the money now," he has stated. Nevertheless, lo and behold, if the art sale occurs, VU's representatives today declare the earliest it could happen would be the end of this year, which apparently would mean renovation starting in summer 2024. Padilla's timeline restriction and reason for not listening to suggested alternative paths has become invalid.

[wh]

And yes, this also ties back to the art sale. The President and the board made a hard choice that is consistent with core mission of the university...sell the art, fund infrastructure improvements to attract new students. A hard decision, but a necessary decision. The people who oppose the art sale offer no better solution...but are very happy to put the difficulty of finding a solution on the President and others, have no problem with it taking years for improvements to be competitive on infrastructure. They do not care about keeping the engine that drives revenue and margin going.

First, yes it is the job of the President and the Board to find funding solutions that preferably are deemed ethical, legal, and a benefit by all, and everyone supports this. However, let's put to bed the idea that no alternative solutions were posed by opponents of the art sale. When presented with possible alternatives by faculty in their meeting with him this semester, Padilla refused to engage in dialogue or consider options offered that did not include immediate funding by the end of spring semester so that renovation construction could begin in summer 2023.


He even objected to a possible idea floated of a short-term targeted fundraiser for $10 million. With the recent publicity and the desire by many alums and donors to keep intact the crowns of the museum collection, this could be feasible. (Indeed, had Padilla sought faculty input from the beginning of his plan last year, perhaps the short-term solution actually could have included enough funding by the end of this spring to begin renovations.) Instead, "I need the money now," he has stated. Nevertheless, lo and behold, if the art sale occurs, VU's representatives today declare the earliest it could happen would be the end of this year, which apparently would mean renovation starting in summer 2024. Padilla's timeline restriction and reason for not listening to suggested alternative paths has become invalid.

I understood your argument the first time you made it, and every time since. The only thing you have helped clarify along the way is your and your fellow faculty members' real problem - loss of power and control that you've lorded over the place in the name of "academic freedom." You're incensed and out for blood. President Padilla has become Padilla and the board you used to control has finally awakened to its true fiduciary responsibility to lead from ahead, not from behind.