Enrollment numbers

[David81]

To Paul Oren, I'll just say keeping it going. I wish that you were being paid more as a VU faculty member. And I wish that more folks would subscribe to The Victory Bell, because good journalists deserve to be paid for their work. However, I am always happy when someone finds or creates their unique, valuable niche, one that provides both personal rewards and (hopefully!) pays enough to cover the bills.

And yes, this does have something to do with enrollment. If Valpo is to serve its broader community, then it should help to open many different vocational doors for its students and graduates. If you want to make your first million before you're 30 or cash in big on some new invention, great, VU can help you get there. If you want to help troubled kids or do policy analysis for a non-profit, VU can help to create those options as well. It doesn't mean maintaining a major that attracts only 3 majors, but it does mean committing to a rich curriculum and an array of degree options.

After all, return-on-investment isn't all about money, though ideally a VU degree will help folks earn more of it. Rather, this degree is one important piece of an overall experience that hopefully will create more choices and possibilities than it restricts.

[historyman]

To Paul Oren, I'll just say keeping it going. I wish that you were being paid more as a VU faculty member. And I wish that more folks would subscribe to The Victory Bell, because good journalists deserve to be paid for their work.

I believe Paul is trying the Todd Ickow route and win large amounts of money in poker tournaments. Or maybe that has ended already?

[usc4valpo]

David. Paul - nice responses. the challenge is for Valpo to stay afloat with a broad range of studies on a beer budget. How will that be done?

[crusadermoe]

Historyman, how in the world did you get the statistic that 902 of Drake students come from NW Indiana?  That seems awfully high and not credible without a source (not asking a name.)

Valpo quite likely does does not attract half that number 902 from all of Iowa.  Someone like Valpo05 or 22 may know that statistic.  My beet says fewer than 75 even though there are tons of Lutherans in Iowa. 

[vu72]

even though there are tons of Lutherans in Iowa.

True and even more in Minnesota yet the effort to recruit these students is totally lacking.  There is no concerted effort to single out this group in any way.

[crusadermoe]

From numerous posts on this board, and I think primarily yours, there is no focused effort to seek out Lutherans per se or the regions where they are numerous.  Yes, they are a fading demographic. But there is a personal network of alumni with ties to high school families and all other things being equal start out with an edge in winning the student. 

Your perception that they lack focus on these groups or regions would lead me to one of three conclusions. I can't tell you which is correct:  1) They are not proactive strategic planners and purely react to applicants or inquiries  2) they passively just do not see them as a priority above any others  3) they know they have moved away from Lutheran beliefs and want to avoid the feedback on their mission they might receive by interacting with Fort Wayne or with other city's Lutheran alumni. Those people founded the school and their families fed it students from the 1950s through the 1980s or 90s.   It's my perception that the new arts building drew liberal faculty who in turn attracted liberal families from the Chicago (a new constituency of families with shallow Valpo roots.)

[vu72]

was Valpo's historic Lutheran identity serving a local or national draw, or both?

Just from my (more recent) experience, my hunch is that Valpo Lutheranism actually used to function to bring in students from a long distance, but no longer does.

The answer is "yes" on both fronts.

When I was a student (67-72) Valpo was probably 75% Lutheran and was fed by a Lutheran network of high schools across the country.  In my case, I came from a Lutheran High School in Cleveland where, of the 75 in my class, probably 10 students went on to Valpo.  At a place like Fort Wayne, the percent of graduates going on to Valpo was probably even higher. Valpo had a national draw, not necessarily because of the Lutheran element's but because of family draw  and family history. In my case, I had two uncles, an aunt, three cousins, a brother, a sister-in-law and since graduation, two nethews, attend Valpo.  None went to Valpo to go on to become anything related to clergy or Lutheran educators.

[VU2022]

VU22, that is an interesting point. I also think one of the big defining factors for Valpo, besides its location in northwest Indiana, is its size. There are really 4 sizes of universities: Universities that are tiny liberal arts colleges, universities that are Valpo sized, mid size private universities like Notre dame, and large state schools. I think the small school size yet decently ranked programs is what attracts midwestern students to Valpo vs. other midwest schools such as Notre dame, Purdue, U of I, IU, ect.

From my experience, most students who want to stay in the Midwest just blanket apply to some or all Illinois and Indiana schools, so there has to be some sort of Valpo identity at play (private Christian school, size, location, admission, ect) for each student who is going to Valpo. I am surprised that the university does not publish statistics for main reasons for attending the school, it would go a long way to improving recruiting and would allow certain demographics to be targeted with a personalized recruitment campaign rather than a one-size-fits-all strategy

[David81]

David. Paul - nice responses. the challenge is for Valpo to stay afloat with a broad range of studies on a beer budget. How will that be done?

Well, I'm not a beer connoisseur, but I'd say the good thing is that Valpo is more Sam Adams than Milwaukee's Best. 🤓🍻

In other words, it may not be Ivy League, but it has tradition, substance, quality, a good reputation, and a respectably funded endowment relative to peer universities.

Conversations on this board have persuaded me that VU is significantly under-marketed to prospective students and that its messaging is not as effective as it should be, both to its traditional Lutheran high school base (however shrinking in #s) and in terms of marketing the school to a broader range of students for whom it would be a very good match. They've been using that lame "Where Passion Meets Purpose" tagline for at least a decade, and it's basically an empty container of air. Somehow, someway, there should be a feasible path toward increasing the incoming undergraduate class by at least 100 students each fall.

I confess to be at a loss in terms of developing new graduate programs. Some schools have jumped in big with online graduate degrees, but frankly, a lot of those programs are uninspired, often vendor-packaged offerings that are more about revenue streams than quality education. They reek of cheesy, for-profit university status.

And, of course, there's the steady slog of building fundraising capacity. Among other things, I'm going to guess that a fairly good number of alums who have been very successful in terms of income & wealth have never been cultivated by university development folks. This is not a criticism of the current development operation, but rather noting the ongoing cost of being a bit later to the dance than some other schools in terms of developing a strong alumni fundraising program.

[crusadermoe]

BINGO.  There needs to be some sort of Valpo identity in play. 

[valpopal]

Anything can happen in enrollment during the next few months; however, when considering total number of students—combining all colleges, undergraduate and graduate, freshmen and transfers—my best guess is that we should not expect any appreciable difference from last year when fall semester rolls around.

At his annual end of academic year address to the university today Pres. Padilla publicly detailed enrollment numbers, so I can also be more specific now. The enrollment numbers we've seen after the crucial May 1 date indicate fall attendance likely will closely mirror last year's total. The deposit numbers for fall are almost identical to last year in all areas except nursing, which is down a bit but is made up for by increased numbers of grad students, many of whom are international and do not receive any tuition discount. In fact, the projection is that international student numbers will again start rising now that Covid has subsided. (The decrease in enrollment in recent years was partly due to the loss of international student population.)

A big revelation was that the Board of Directors approved a vision of the university official identity going forward as a 3000 (full-time equivalent) student institution. (There could be slightly higher enrollment numbers of individuals since part-time students and grad students are not fte.) Without getting into the weeds, the budget projection and assets numbers do not reflect a disastrous future. Instead, the five-year projections seemed to offer a more heartening tone. I applaud Padilla for the transparency in his presentation.

I attended an extremely detailed briefing this morning by a representative of the consulting firm recommending future directions for the university. I appreciate this opportunity and applaud the university for making the information available. The scores of stats and graphs offered a very good view at where Valparaiso University stands in relation to all other universities, especially those (private and public) with whom the university competes for students. I will not reveal any of the specifics here that have not been made public previously by Pres. Padilla, but I will say that the data given confirm Padilla's stated goal of a 3000 full-time equivalent student population, 700 freshmen and 100 transfers per year, as the reasonable target of student population—roughly 2800-2900 undergraduates and 300-500 graduate students would achieve this number. With a refined consistent recruitment strategy, Valparaiso University is well situated, economically and structurally, to reach these numbers within the next five years. The overall presentation was enlightening and heartening as there seemed to be no indication of doom or disaster looming, and the expected trend for the university in future enrollment appeared hopeful. 

[vu84v2]

valpopal - I appreciate you sharing this and realize that there are limitations on what you can (and should) share in an open forum. Yet, I will offer a question and a comment. First, what were the underlying assumptions associated with their model and subsequent conclusions? While I agree that Valparaiso has strengths that can be leveraged as advantages, there are also investments that seem to be needed to shore up disadvantages and/or take advantage of trends (e.g., greater need for healthcare driving huge demand for nursing and other medical professions). You can't make an assessment on the number of students without linking it to assumptions (and I realize this may have been done in this meeting and that you cannot share it openly). Second, I am always a bit dubious of consultants. They are hired and paid for by the leaders of the organization they are analyzing...thus there is a tendency to tell the client what they want to hear. Not saying that this is the case here (I have no idea), but always something that should be considered.

[historyman]

Historyman, how in the world did you get the statistic that 902 of Drake students come from NW Indiana?  That seems awfully high and not credible without a source (not asking a name.)

Valpo quite likely does does not attract half that number 902 from all of Iowa.  Someone like Valpo05 or 22 may know that statistic.  My beet says fewer than 75 even though there are tons of Lutherans in Iowa. 

I think it's broke.

[valpopal]

valpopal - I appreciate you sharing this and realize that there are limitations on what you can (and should) share in an open forum. Yet, I will offer a question and a comment. First, what were the underlying assumptions associated with their model and subsequent conclusions? While I agree that Valparaiso has strengths that can be leveraged as advantages, there are also investments that seem to be needed to shore up disadvantages and/or take advantage of trends (e.g., greater need for healthcare driving huge demand for nursing and other medical professions). You can't make an assessment on the number of students without linking it to assumptions (and I realize this may have been done in this meeting and that you cannot share it openly). Second, I am always a bit dubious of consultants. They are hired and paid for by the leaders of the organization they are analyzing...thus there is a tendency to tell the client what they want to hear. Not saying that this is the case here (I have no idea), but always something that should be considered.

Excuse me if I necessarily speak in generalities. The presentation began with numerous obvious assumptions to all, including those beyond the control of Valpo or any other university, such as the so-called demographic admissions "cliff" predicted between 2025 and 2029, which was closely examined. As you suggest, some professions could be expected to continue in ascendency during the next decade based upon social and economic trends, plus an uptick in graduate students and returning numbers of international students after covid. The 90-minute session explored various scenarios the university itself actually could direct. Some situations could be met immediately, such as a refined and consistent admissions strategy with greater focus toward an established goal and a higher likelihood of success. Other situations would be implemented further in the future, such as considering instituting new majors that have already been proven very popular elsewhere, especially interdisciplinary studies. Just one possible example among many offered is neuroscience, which could be under the combined control of psychology and biology.


In general, the target would be a 3000 fte student enrollment, as Pres. Padilla publicly stated last week. The estimated numbers would include about 800 new undergraduate students each fall: 700 freshmen and 100 transfers. Overall graduate numbers could be about 300-500 to reach the fte goal. Essentially, Valpo merely needs to recapture most of the enrollment figures from 2019-2020, the last year before covid and the first year with 0 law students, when the university (according to its own public release of enrollment numbers) had a total student population of 3521 (494 of those grad students), but the new student numbers were 1004 (812 undergraduates and 192 grads), a realistic goal in the next few years.


In the low point of 2022-23, the new grad student numbers were 322, and the new undergraduate numbers (freshmen plus transfers) were 737. Therefore, an increase of about 60 undergraduate freshmen and transfers would get Valpo to its minimal goal even without an increase in grad students, though they should go up as well. This can be done.


As you know from my previous posts on other topics, I am normally skeptical of administration guidance and need evidence, but I felt the displayed goals and tactics for reaching them seemed reasonable and achievable.       

[vu84v2]

I fully understand your need to speak in generalities and appreciate the clarification that you could provide.

I hope that when using transfers in these models that they are applying net transfers (transfers in minus transfer out).

[valpopal]

Pal, could you speak to the FTE goals? I am as eager for positive projections as anybody, but a little unsure what to make of the optimism around the FTE goal.

As you said in a previous post "Although total enrollment is reported in the media as about 2900, the university's fte enrollment has been closer to 2500 the past four years. The budget displayed by Padilla actually showed the university experiences budget surpluses once the 3000 student fte number is reached, hopefully by 2026 or soon after."

Am i misunderstandign these categories and stats, or doesn't that gap still mean the university somehow needs around 500 more students enrolled to break even? I'm not saying that's impossible, but just seems a little surprising in a context where the professional schools were actually a little lower last year, and nursing is down. Those are the sectors that everybody likes to tout as the successful/fertile ones, so thoughts? Where is Valpo going to get 500 more students to meet this 3,000 FTE student goal? THe past couple years, folks have been worrying about much smaller differntials like up 5 or down 10, and yet we think we can enroll additional hundreds of them? We've been talking about wanting freshman enrollment in the 700+ range for a couple years now, but keep missing it. This past fall was 552 freshmen. So how is this renewed discussion of a 700 freshmen different, and not just a restatement of the previous (and missed) goal in a more cheery tone?

Maybe it is possible and I am underestimating factors like the new coach, if high schoolers are paying attention to those sorts of staffing issues when they make these decisions.

The published total enrollment numbers for 2022-2023 are 2355 undergrads and 609 grads. The new student head count for Fall 2022 (freshmen and transfers) was 737. That gives you an fte closer to 2500 than 2900. However, Valpo is looking to increase the incoming undergrad population in the next 3-5 years to its 2019-2020 (last year before covid and first year with no law school students) new student number of 812 freshmen and transfers, an increase of 75 over the low point last year. That number was actually 790 in 2020-21, the first year partially impacted by covid, so an increase of only 10 over that would get Valpo to 800, though I think 790 would be satisfactory, especially since grad numbers are trending up quite well.   

[valpopal]

I fully understand your need to speak in generalities and appreciate the clarification that you could provide.

I hope that when using transfers in these models that they are applying net transfers (transfers in minus transfer out).

The transfer numbers are incoming new students. Attrition and retainment numbers were topics explored, as well, with plans proposed to lower outgoing transfers and increase incoming transfers. Even taking net transfers in and out under consideration, an incoming class of 700 freshmen, plus adding the grad school enrollment, would give Valpo the 3000 ftes it is seeking.

[VULB#62]

An opinion piece by the president of the University of Montana from the Washington Post on the nation-wide decrease in enrollment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/15/college-student-enrollment-decline-economics/

I hope there is no paywall.

[vu84v2]

Thank you VULB. That is a fantastic article!

[crusadermoe]

I hit a paywall.  But I am sure it is a good article.

[crusadermoe]

OK. got through the paywall.  Certainly the trends in the stats are a headwind.  Returning to Pre-COVID enrollments, and not expecting to exceed them quickly, seems to be an agreed goal across most schools.

[historyman]

The magic number had been set for 6,000.








And they made it!!!!!!!








Real Madrid score their 6,000th goal in LaLiga - AS USA












Real Madrid score their 6,000th goal in LaLiga[/color]The Spanish giants hit the landmark total with their third goal against Betis, the second on the night from Asensio.




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Update: February 18th, 2018 17:07 EST
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MIGUEL MORENATTIDIARIO AS[/size][/color]Real Madrid reached the landmark total of 6,000 goals scored in LaLiga, this evening in their match against Betis. Marco Asensio bagged the goal in question, Real Madrid's third of the night and the player's second. Real Madrid ran out 5-3 winners.[/font][/color]Real Madrid ahead of BarcelonReal Madrid lead the scoring table in the Spanish top flight, now on 6,002 goals. Their closest rivals Barcelona have scored 5,962.


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[crusadermoe]

Ha.  You had me going there.

One good way to meet your goal is to cut it in half.   The goal of 6,000 students became 3,000 students. 

[historyman]

Ha.  You had me going there.

One good way to meet your goal is to cut it in half.   The goal of 6,000 students became 3,000 students. 

So now the goal is 1,500 students? Wait, 750 students? 375 students?,  187.5 students? What qualifies as a half student?

[VUSupport]

One of the main obstacles in VU's enrollment woes is Bart Harvey. He can't keep doing the same thing over and over again and think something different is going to happen. Padilla and his new golden child in Enrollment better get a better plan than hinging their hopes in making VU an HSI. Great in theory, but the enrollment cliff soon approaching is only going to make VU's enrollment cohorts shrink even more than it is.

Once again VU let good people leave when they could have retained them. Those folks in the Provost wing had vision in terms of retention and enrollment that was working. Then the shift of leadership has changed the momentum that was built.

Trust me, I could go on and on with this, but like Padilla and his COS, it will fall on deaf ears.