Enrollment numbers

[vu72]

The sports players also bring some regional diversity to the student body, since sometimes they are willing to come from the non-Midwest for the chance to play sports.

I recently took the time to look at each sport and what state the players came from.  I found that Valpo athletes hail from 33 different states and five foreign countries. Football alone has players from 21 different states.

[crusadermoe]

Many talked on the other thread about the Board making draconian, rapid and "ill-advised" cuts in spring 2020.  CoVID was unique and had so many unforeseen variables.  So maybe it is a unicorn.

However, can you imagine the frustration of a board member from the business world who wants to help turn the battleship.  Every spring you need to make fiscal decisions and you want to make them early enough to transition faculty in a fair way into the following fiscal/academic year.  So you have a short window. 

Compounding the problem is you can only really adjust to the revenue of 1/4 of the picture (one entering class.)  So....you sit there in March every year with a batch of applicants and inquiries.  You take a shot at an income forecast with major caveats like students waiting out selective university decisions while using Valpo as a hedge school at 3rd or 4th choice.  And you don't know which kids are "on the bubble" so to speak.  Then you go back to even less helpful data for the balance of the year until you get to Feb-March again.  It has to drive CEO-types crazy to have few levers in times other than Spring.

[crusadermoe]

It's certainly normal stuff for higher ed.  My point is simply that the battleship turns very slowly for all the reasons we cite.  And you can only turn the steering wheel once per year.

[David81]

Many talked on the other thread about the Board making draconian, rapid and "ill-advised" cuts in spring 2020.  CoVID was unique and had so many unforeseen variables.  So maybe it is a unicorn.

However, can you imagine the frustration of a board member from the business world who wants to help turn the battleship.  Every spring you need to make fiscal decisions and you want to make them early enough to transition faculty in a fair way into the following fiscal/academic year.  So you have a short window. 

Compounding the problem is you can only really adjust to the revenue of 1/4 of the picture (one entering class.)  So....you sit there in March every year with a batch of applicants and inquiries.  You take a shot at an income forecast with major caveats like students waiting out selective university decisions while using Valpo as a hedge school at 3rd or 4th choice.  And you don't know which kids are "on the bubble" so to speak.  Then you go back to even less helpful data for the balance of the year until you get to Feb-March again.  It has to drive CEO-types crazy to have few levers in times other than Spring.

That's why having people with both higher ed admin and teaching experience on the board helps a lot, i.e., to smooth over the lack of familiarity and periodic discomfort of planning around an academic year, without unconditionally relying on reports from the President and Provost.

[vu72]

Well, seeing that move-in day is next Saturday, my guess is someone has an idea as to how the enrollment numbers are shaping up!

[valpopal]

Well, seeing that move-in day is next Saturday, my guess is someone has an idea as to how the enrollment numbers are shaping up!

As of now, I would guess the final numbers will be close to last year but likely down a touch, maybe a few percentage points.

[wh]

Well, seeing that move-in day is next Saturday, my guess is someone has an idea as to how the enrollment numbers are shaping up!

As of now, I would guess the final numbers will be close to last year but likely down a touch, maybe a few percentage points.

Danger ahead?

Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Valparaiso University's (IN) to Baa2; outlook revised to stable
27 Feb 2023
New York, February 27, 2023 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Valparaiso University, IN's issuer and revenue bond ratings to Baa2 from Baa1. As of June 30, 2022, Valparaiso had $96.2 million of outstanding revenue bond debt. The outlook has been revised to stable from negative.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The downgrade to Baa2 reflects a large structural budget imbalance, with weak operating performance and debt service coverage likely over the next several years. Liquidity is already very thin, inclusive of draws under a working capital line, and will erode further, with the pace of decline dependent on the ability to successfully implement in a timely way initiatives to realign its program and expense structure with enrollment amid a difficult regional student market. The university generated a nearly 8% operating deficit in fiscal 2022 and the deficit for fiscal 2023 is forecast to be substantially worse, with below 1.0x debt service coverage from regular operations. 

Despite these challenges, Valparaiso University's Baa2 remains supported by its very good total wealth, good levels of spendable cash and investments, and a recognized regional brand bolstering a still good strategic position. Philanthropic support is relatively good with three-year gift revenue averaging over $15 million. Despite a use of some liquid reserves, spendable cash and investments continues to provide solid debt coverage at nearly 1.4x. An operating base of over $112 million provides some expense flexibility and potential for operating performance improvement through expense reductions. Additionally, the university has gained some traction in graduate programs, including nursing and information technology. 

RATING OUTLOOK

The outlook is currently stable incorporating the university's identified budget initiatives, which have some prospects for success on both the revenue and expense side.  The stable outlook also incorporates broader wealth levels that provide some financial flexibility to implement plans. The university's management team is relatively new without a yet established track record of reversing the university's multi-year enrollment and financial challenges. Inability to make clear progress in fiscal 2024, including meeting enrollment targets in Fall 2023 would have either rating or outlook implications.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OF THE RATINGS

- Notable strengthening of brand and strategic position, reflected in growing enrollment and net tuition revenue and further growth in philanthropy

- Significant improvement in annual operating performance driven by net tuition revenue growth and expense reductions
- Material growth in total wealth and financial reserves with significantly stronger liquidity
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

- Failure to make progress towards stabilizing enrollment in fall 2023 with growth in net student revenue

- Inability to make substantial progress towards narrowing operating imbalances in fiscal 2024 and beyond, with consistent debt service coverage above 1.2x.
- Further reduction in unrestricted liquidity or broader wealth levels
LEGAL SECURITY

Outstanding debt is all unsecured general obligations of the university.  The J.P. Morgan Chase line of credit includes a financial covenant that unrestricted cash and investments to debt be at least 1.0x. The covenanted ratio stood at 1.5x in fiscal 2022. There are no debt reserve fund requirements.

[crusadermoe]

Moody's is rugged and crystal clear.  To clarify, ...will the freshman class be smaller than last year?   

Quoting a prior post from VU72:  ".....Statistics from Fall of 2022 included 576 Freshman, 537 Sophomores, 533 juniors and 700 Seniors! The previous fall it was worse with 586 Freshman while the Senior class had 800!.....

is anyone else getting Facebook notices like this? 
Valpo guarantees an $25,000 tuition grant for a 3.0+GPA and with no test sccores required. The private college tuition model is insane and Valpo must be desperately seeking applications. The revenue per student is officially capped. 

[vu84v2]

Moody's is rugged and crystal clear.  To clarify, ...will the freshman class be smaller than last year?   

Quoting a prior post from VU72:  ".....Statistics from Fall of 2022 included 576 Freshman, 537 Sophomores, 533 juniors and 700 Seniors! The previous fall it was worse with 586 Freshman while the Senior class had 800!.....

is anyone else getting Facebook notices like this? 
Valpo guarantees an $25,000 tuition grant for a 3.0+GPA and with no test sccores required. The private college tuition model is insane and Valpo must be desperately seeking applications. The revenue per student is officially capped. 

The serious differences over several years between graduating seniors and incoming freshmen are very concerning.

I have not seen any such Facebook notices (as I am not on Facebook). But, if that statement is being made, a grant is an amount that covers part of the full cost. Thus, it would be a $25K total discount (likely $6.25K per year over 4 years) to the full tuition price and would create a ceiling (of sorts) that is much higher than $25K per year. I am not saying this is necessarily good, but (if true) it is likely not as bad as you suggest.

[crusadermoe]

Ok, good point.  You must be right about offering $25,000 ACROSS 4 YEARS....

But the college price wars of private tuition discounting is a race to the bottom that gets faster every year. And when you sticker your tuition at $45-50,000 you have to drop a long way to compete with the public univs. My wife and I found huge discounts dangled by private schools to our daughters. Naturally they were called "scholarships." 

I wonder if someone like Valpo22 can clarify whether the Facebook VU offer is $25k per single year or $25k given out across 4 years. Because it also adds that students can apply for "as much as $30,000."  If I am a parent of a stellar student I wouldn't find a $5,000 variance in my favor very compelling.  I may be reading it wrong.  But if I am reading it that way, chances are that others may too.   

[vu72]

It can't be spread over four years.  The posted cost of attendance is $62,700 with an estimated average scholarship (discount) of $38,000.  It has to be per year for the $25,000.  I get a lot of stuff on Facebook from Valpo but haven't seen that one.

https://www.valpo.edu/student-financial-services/tuition-fees/

[crusadermoe]

Fine Print at the bottom of the soccer girl image, may not in all versions.   It says "automatic $25,000 if you have a a 3.0 GPA"

In our high school climate of grade points, that is a non-trouble maker with a pulse.

Sadly, it also implies that you get "up to" another $30,000 if you have merit.  Again, that is what I am reading in the message. It may not be intended to be understood that way. 





 

[wh]

The deck is stacked against increasing enrollment in so many ways. Add this to the list.  I just read a NY Times article full of statistical data supporting that fertility rates in N. America are in steep decline. Reasons range from getting married later, having children later, all the way to single men sitting at home masturbating to porn instead of out and about looking for that someone special, and everything in between.

[crusadermoe]

Now I am seeing the Facebook ad constantly in my feed.  It says Valpo Value....... (soccer player girl photo.)   Automatic $24,000."  I saw it 3x yesterday. 

Again.....private college tuition is a pretty absurd business model. To use an analogy, you are a car dealer and you list a sticker price for a full-size car (Toyota Camry?) on your website at $55,000.  But then to attract buyers to your lot or your website you shoot out Facebook ads offering a $24,000 automatic discount to ANY BUYER with a valid drivers license and a pulse (analogy to a 3.0 GPA HS student.) 

I guess it is the Kohl's mentality of paying $4 for a pair of socks listed at $20 per pair at Kohl's.  On the receipt it says, "You just saved 80% on your purchase today." My wife and I always chuckle. It's a very dangerous race to the bottom in pricing.

[vu84v2]

The deck is stacked against increasing enrollment in so many ways. Add this to the list.  I just read a NY Times article full of statistical data supporting that fertility rates in N. America are in steep decline. Reasons range from getting married later, having children later, all the way to single men sitting at home masturbating to porn instead of out and about looking for that someone special, and everything in between.

Obviously, this current trend (that is real) will not impact universities for another 18 years - but there was a birth rate decline during the recession in 2007-2009 that will imminently impact universities.

[wh]

Now I am seeing the Facebook ad constantly in my feed.  It says Valpo Value....... (soccer player girl photo.)   Automatic $24,000."  I saw it 3x yesterday. 

Again.....private college tuition is a pretty absurd business model. To use an analogy, you are a car dealer and you list a sticker price for a full-size car (Toyota Camry?) on your website at $55,000.  But then to attract buyers to your lot or your website you shoot out Facebook ads offering a $24,000 automatic discount to ANY BUYER with a valid drivers license and a pulse (analogy to a 3.0 GPA HS student.) 

I guess it is the Kohl's mentality of paying $4 for a pair of socks listed at $20 per pair at Kohl's.  On the receipt it says, "You just saved 80% on your purchase today." My wife and I always chuckle. It's a very dangerous race to the bottom in pricing.

Hey, don't laugh. My wife and our 2 married daughters love Kohl's. I remember a time when my daughter bought a bunch of school clothes for the kids, presented all her coupons and Kohl's bucks at checkout, and agreed to open a Kohl's account to receive yet another 10% discount. After completing her purchase, she immediately walked over to the courtesy desk and cancelled the Kohl's account she had just opened. 

When it's all said and done, I think Kohl's final discounted prices are highly competitive. As for my wife and daughters, I admire their tenacity, but it's way too much work to interest me.

[VUSupport]

I'm going to beat the dead horse again, but Valpo Admin missed the mark in not retaining and promoting the right people.

[vu72]

s anyone else getting Facebook notices like this? 
Valpo guarantees an $25,000 tuition grant for a 3.0+GPA and with no test sccores required. The private college tuition model is insane and Valpo must be desperately seeking applications. The revenue per student is officially capped. 

I did see the following posted today:

Put your future into motion by applying to Valpo. The application is quick and free, plus you'll automatically be considered for scholarships up to $30,000 per year when you submit your application.

[crusadermoe]

There are two of them.  Mine is correct and so is yours.  Watch for the automatic $25k in your feed.

[VUSupport]

That reeks of desperation honestly.

[Pgmado]

Why are there so many people in this world who just want to trash Valpo at every turn? Jesus, this school lives in the head of people rent free. There is currently a former assistant football coach who hops on Twitter at all hours of the night and goes on diatribes about how bad his experience was at Valpo. The guy is currently a bartender and worked at Valpo for less than two months. Yet it's been three months and he's still firing off tweets about it at 4 in the morning. Then there are the people on this board who chime in every couple months to let us know that the wrong hires were made. Fine. We get it.

Valpo has ALWAYS been a school that has given a ton in aid. It has a high sticker price, but it has a high aid rate as well. I guess that reeks of desperation?

I'm just so sick of the negativity all the time. The students walk back in the classroom tomorrow. I don't know how many there are, but I know the ones that are here are going to get our all.

[vu72]

Had a chance to watch part of the opening convocation. Enrollment was announced at 600 freshman and transfers and 200  grad students, from 45 states and 11 foreign countries.

President Padilla made one heck of a speech. Good stuff on an apparently pretty warm day.  Heck it was 105 again here in Texas. 

[VUSupport]

Paul wake up. Not everything is sunshine and roses. Valpo is on bad trajectory and you can't say otherwise

[valpopal]

Had a chance to watch part of the opening convocation. Enrollment was announced at 600 freshman and transfers and 200  grad students, from 45 states and 11 foreign countries.

Before anyone panics, I'm pretty sure this was a misspoken moment and the 600 number just applies to freshmen (not freshmen and transfers), there are additionally more than one hundred transfers as well as more than 200 grad students.

[VUSupport]

What's your source on the actual numbers then? Allison Urbanzek (sp?) in the Regisrtrar has an exact number. Plus the true numbers will be once census hits after week 3