Enrollment numbers

[vu84v2]

So we are a total student population of 2,500 now?

The published total enrollment numbers for 2022-2023 were 2355 undergrads and 609 grads (2964 total). The undergraduate new student head count for Fall 2022 (freshmen and transfers) was 737. The numbers this semester likely will be a bit lower than that, as will the grad student numbers. Obviously, the overall total of students this year will depend on amount of attrition from last year. That gives you a student total near 2900 and an fte closer to 2500 than 2900.

However, in its strategic plan outlook (maybe optimistic), Valpo is looking to increase the incoming undergrad population in the next 3-5 years to its 2019-2020 (last year before covid and first year with no law school students) new student number of 800 freshmen and transfers. That number was actually 790 in 2020-21, the first year partially impacted by covid, so an increase of only 10 over that would get Valpo to 800, though I think getting back to 790 would be considered a great success and 750-775 could be acceptable, especially if grad numbers also increase. In general, the university target is a 3000 fte student enrollment in five years, as Pres. Padilla has publicly stated. The estimated numbers would include about 800 new undergraduate students each fall (freshmen and transfers). Overall graduate numbers could be about 300-500 to reach the fte goal.   

Thank you for that summary, valpopal.

Those enrollment targets sound sensible and realistic. I hope they reflect budget projections assuming that the bloodletting is in the rearview mirror. After all, stability is a blessed yet highly underrated quality in the aftermath of layoffs, program closures, and budget cuts.

The other key assumption in budget projections is discount rate...what was the assumption and what was actual?

[VUSupport]

It's all about retention and net tuition. And not to beat a dead horse, they didn't retain the right people for that. The new VP is in over her head and needs to get rid of the director of Admissions Bart.

[VULB#62]

The other key assumption in budget projections is discount rate...what was the assumption and what was actual?

Interesting article by George F. Will in the Washington Post this morning on this very subject (hope it is readable and not blocked by a pay wall).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/30/high-college-tuition-marketing-tool/?utm_campaign=wp_follow_george_f_will&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl-georgefwill

[vu84v2]

The other key assumption in budget projections is discount rate...what was the assumption and what was actual?

Interesting article by George F. Will in the Washington Post this morning on this very subject (hope it is readable and not blocked by a pay wall).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/30/high-college-tuition-marketing-tool/?utm_campaign=wp_follow_george_f_will&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl-georgefwill

(the article is accessible as long as you have not used up your free articles)

Two points regarding list price, discount rate, and university finances:
1. One major reason that the list price for tuition rose dramatically was that most international students paid full price. External factors soured international students' desire to attend American universities, which hurt the financials for universities (especially private universities). For students from the US, the actual prices paid rose much less than the posted tuition - thus the discount rates became much higher.
2. The difference in actual prices paid between public and private universities is far less than what many believe (many just see the list price and make judgements). Relatedly, many states have significantly reduced funding for universities. I recently had a discussion with an administrator from a state school and he said that state's (not Wisconsin or Indiana) funding to cover costs associated with tuition had gone from 80% prior to 2010 to about 20% today. This has three impacts: 1. the state universities must raise tuition to makes their finances work, while their discount rate remains very low, 2. the non-flagship state universities become far less competitive and incur major financial problems, 3. state universities reduce their entry standards to generate equal or greater enrollment.

Strategies at private universities (such as Valpo) need to consider these factors and make adjustments (on posted pricing, value proposition, etc.)

[crusadermoe]

Great insight. Full tuition-paying international students make perfect sense as a rationale to push sticker prices through the roof. And of course the "vanity" or brand factor keeps the prices high even after those students are fewer now.

I found George Will's observations that there has been an actual decline in net tuition paid by families to be fascinating. But,....do those statistics include loans, since those are actually costs paid by the family? I should have read it closer. 

[crusader05]

One interesting piece about the student loan debate is that it lumps a lot of separate complaints into one conversation.

Generally people who go to and graduate from  4 year accredited higher education university are able to pay their loans off but the interest sticker shock and time it takes to do so can feel like a slow grind on people who are first starting off and feel like the loan payment does effect their ability to hit certain "adult" goals faster.
Loan repayment programs have, until recently, been riddled with bureaucracy and paperwork that made them almost unworthy of utilizing. That has change significantly and will hopefully continue to happen. This will encourage people to work for lower pay in more well deserving areas to aid in loan repayment instead of all trying to grab the highest paying jobs in the highest paying cities (which are usually also way more expensive to live in)
A lot of community colleges/certification courses etc are the most likely to have a student take out a loan that they cannot pay back or discharge bankruptcy. In fact, I believe that 20,000 of forgiveness would fully discharge a lot of the this type of loan because they tend to be lower amount but the people who took them out tend to be the least likely to even pay those back. These schools also tend to maybe have the least scruples on who they encourage to enroll and apply for loans.

I think a lot of students and parents hear the general talk about student loans and fears of not "using your college degree" (which is an interesting metric when so many things a college degree provides you may  lead to way better career outcomes down the line even if you start off as, say, a barista) that they are way more risk averse in general.

[David81]

While international perspectives brought by international students can be great, in reality -- at times, at least -- it's less about introducing cultural diversity into the mix and more about what vu84v2 suggests: They pay full sticker price. This that means unless these students are coming with a lot of financial aid from their government, you can get a remarkably homogeneous group of international students with a common denominator of family cash. Happens all the time. LOLOL.

[crusader05]

I do wonder if some part of it is a psychological component of getting "some" aid.

So maybe most students only pay around 25,000. How many will get mad if they apply and get no aid even on 25,000. Better to discount to feel like they are getting a deal/wanted or valued vs the sense that having to pay full price means you are less desired. I think that's why they focus on tuition aid and large scholarships, Plus one thing that I believe has been proven is that the more expensive a school is the more people assume it is "better" and are more likely to want to go there. It's the same reason some schools love to chase the "acceptance rate" game. Those perceived as highly selective are more desirable because it's believed they clearly "offer more"

I think the biggest problem is that as college has gotten more expensive the perceived gap in quality and "worthiness" of an institution has widened to really make a big gap between haves and have nots, at least in the private system. It's like they often say, the hardest thing about many Ivies is getting into them vs the actually academic challenges once you're there.

[crusadermoe]

And of course there is the fiscal reality for the university at this point in time.

If you have empty dorm rooms and empty classroom seats then every new student is a revenue gain.  If marginal revenue on each extra kid is only $10,000 and your marginal cost to add them is ZERO, then you gain $10k in net revenue.   

I don't like it, but I suppose that is the reason to shout across Facebook that "YOU GET $25,000 AUTOMATICALLY....NO TESTS SCORES NEEDED!" At least it gets you noticed by parents/kids who think they are out of it from sticker price.  Just sweep up every interested student and get on their ACT score recipient list.  Then you can drive the price down as far as needed to enroll each him/her.

[vu72]

Well, a picture on Facebook from the Office of International Students (or some such title) showed a picture of "new international students" in the Union lobby.  There were clearly over 200 present--that I tried to actually count.  200 X $45,000 tuition, room and meal plan, that's $9,000,000!  That, can cover a lot of discounting!

[valpopal]

Well, a picture on Facebook from the Office of International Students (or some such title) showed a picture of "new international students" in the Union lobby.  There were clearly over 200 present--that I tried to actually count.

That photo was from last year when we had the aberration of an unusually large cohort of grad students in CS from a single source. Therefore, this year you will see the international grad number down, but the good news is that the U.S. grad number will be up.

[crusadermoe]

The other big reason undergraduate enrollment is so pivotal is that you get revenue from dorms and from meal plans, especially from freshmen. So many seek apartments over dorms.  I bet they let them have cars too which adds to off-campus food shopping.  The dorm revenue is the key item even though some revenue is lost from fewer meal plans that may charge $10-15 bucks for "all in" meals. 

I loved that good old dorm and cafeteria experience for the social interactions (and a guy's appetite.)  But times have changed. Just another nasty revenue challenge.

[crusadermoe]

STILL ON THE WEBSITE!!   
August 23, 2023 – Valparaiso, Indiana – An exciting new semester is set to kick off at Valparaiso University as over 600 new students start their Valpo journey. (contd...)

"Welcome, class of 2027, to the Valparaiso University family," said University President José D. Padilla, J.D. at this year's Convocation ceremony. " (contd....)

Of the 602 students joining the campus community, 94 are coming in as transfer students, and the University has been recognized by Phi Beta Kappa for its success in creating transfer-friendly pathways to education. 

[vu72]

I have no knowledge of international student mix but found a video put out by the office of international students, on Facebook, of interest.  This was an interview with a new student this fall, who is a Junior, transfer from Pakistan, who is majoring in Psychology.  Who knew?

[VUSupport]

Makes you wonder who's more full of bs about the enrollment figures? The Registrar agrees with the Facebook post btw

[valpopal]

The administration monitors exact numbers of enrollment on a daily basis. The unfortunate confusion seems to exist because of the apparently poorly worded sentence in a statement on the website ("Of the 602 students...") that gives an impression transfers are included among the 602 total. The same statement but with a bit more correct wording ("Of the students...") was posted in the following link on August 23. Minus the "602," its context indicates transfers and Access students are in addition to the 600 freshmen:
https://valpo.life/article/valparaiso-university-welcomes-a-new-class-to-campus/

In fact, the graphic supplied by the university and accompanying the link above offers precise numbers: 290 in CAS, 94 in COB, 126 in COE, 183 in CNHP, plus 28 in the Access College. That gives a total of 721. The number will likely have altered a bit between 8/23 and the final census count that will be conducted on Tuesday 9/5. However, it is safe to assume undergraduate enrollment will be a little over 700. (The grad student numbers should be just over 200.) In any case, the official numbers should be revealed by the the time of the fall faculty meeting on Thursday 9/7.

[David81]

D81, what do you think should happen?

In the wake of these recent decades of tuition increase and reliance on internationals, should privates like VU simply peg the full-rate tuition way lower so it's clear for domestic students how VU stacks up against public state and community colleges? Or keep up the high numbers in hopes of getting a few rich international or domestic families to pay it, while giving the steep scholarships? or some third option?

It seems like the current strategy is a hybrid in terms of keeping the tuition high but pre-publicizing the guaranteed scholarships for GPA, though I don't know what that means for actual net income to the university.

valpo22, it's a good question that I can answer only in generalities. I think the overwhelming first priority is to set tuition at the best possible "sweet spot" for attracting U.S. undergraduates. Too high, and the sticker price may scare people from even applying, even with generous scholarships in the mix. Too low, and you're reducing revenue and -- ironically -- some may regard a low sticker for a private university as suggesting lower quality.

As for qualified international students, hopefully whatever VU has to offer will be appealing, and they'll matriculate. But I think the past few years have taught us the precariousness of over reliance on steady and/or growing international student enrollment. Too many variables out of a school's control.

[historyman]

The other key assumption in budget projections is discount rate...what was the assumption and what was actual?

Interesting article by George F. Will in the Washington Post this morning on this very subject (hope it is readable and not blocked by a pay wall).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/30/high-college-tuition-marketing-tool/?utm_campaign=wp_follow_george_f_will&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl-georgefwill

Opinion  Colleges hide the truth about tuition

By George F. Will
Columnist
|
Follow
August 30, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. EDT

From sea to shining sea, the shining faces of young people are turning expectantly toward another year in the groves of academe. Heading for college, they leave behind parents who might understandably be bewildered about the price of higher education. (Higher than what? It's complicated, and a question for another day.)

There is ample evidence that colleges mangle the truth about so many subjects (e.g., history, contemporary life, how literature should be studied, freedom of expression on campuses, etc.) that it should not surprise anyone that the counterintuitive reality about tuition is deliberately obscured — and cunningly complicated.

Fortunately, Dan Currell has entertainingly dispelled the manufactured mists that engulf "The Truth About College Costs," which is the title of his astringent essay in the summer issue of National Affairs. Formerly a senior adviser at the Education Department, Currell has glad tidings: "Students are paying less for college than they did 15 years ago."

This is, as Currell knows, "deeply contrary to conventional wisdom," but the reason for it is hiding in plain sight: "In the late 1980s and early 1990s, colleges discovered that the appearance of high tuition was good for marketing." Since then, they have toiled to keep "nearly invisible" the fact that 96 percent of students pay about $15,000 a year for tuition. Add $10,000 for room and board, and the $25,000 total is a far cry from the eye-watering numbers that colleges are actually pleased to have bandied about.

A few highly selective colleges educate a "small and highly unrepresentative" fraction of students. "The top 100 private schools enroll around 500,000 students," while the other 2,600 four-year schools enroll about 10.5 million. Most of the elite schools could fill their annual enrollments several times over with the children of the affluent who would gladly pay the advertised tuition — even much more. Most of these elite institutions have, however, large endowments that enable generous tuition assistance for the less affluent. For the other institutions, a sleight of hand is the basic business practice.

The Economist largely validates Currell's thesis. It reports that the average tuition paid by students at their home-state public colleges is about $10,000, and that private colleges discount tuition by more than 50 percent on average. "The College Board, a non-profit, shows that whereas published tuition and fees for private non-profit colleges increased from $29,000 in 2006-07 to $38,000 in 2021-22 (in 2021 dollars), the net price actually decreased from $17,000 to $15,000. The story is similar for public colleges. Published tuition and fees were nearly $8,000 in 2006-07 and rose to nearly $11,000 in 2021-22, but the net cost fell by $730."

But, the Economist says, schools have "an incentive to seem extortionate": "Consumers tend to associate higher prices with higher quality." (Currell: "Bowdoin's published tuition today is $4,000 higher than Harvard's.") The Economist adds, "students (and their boastful parents) are flattered by tuition markdowns pitched as merit scholarships rather than discounts."

The discounts often are, Currell says, "institutional scholarships" with no money behind them. "By 1999," he says, "the fundamental dishonesty of college pricing had become clear": "That year, American private colleges purported to award scholarships worth more than all the tuition they collected — which is to say, their average discount had exceeded 50%." That explains this faux mystery: Colleges ostensibly cost $50,000 a year, "but," Currell says drolly, "they are somehow also running out of money." The not-at-all-mysterious reality is, Currell says, that "the apparent rise in tuition after the mid-1990s" is "almost entirely illusory."

"In fact," Currell says, "if a typical college collected its sticker price in full, its leaders would hardly know what to do with all the money." For example, Beloit College, a Wisconsin liberal arts school with a $43 million budget, would have an extra $26 million.

Colleges can minimize their discounts by instead steering parents toward having government provide the discount with subsidized student loans. Among the social costs of what Currell calls the "fundamental dishonesty" about college pricing is today's mountain of college debt: "Many families simply believe there is a $200,000 tollbooth on the road to the American dream, so they sign the loan forms."

Academia has appointed itself the nation's moral tutor whose duty is to make Americans remorseful about almost everything, including deceptive practices that the tutor insists characterize unsavory capitalism. So, it is fun to have Currell's demonstration that our supposed moral betters have practices that are, to use one of their favorite words, problematic.

Opinion by George F. Will
George F. Will writes a twice-weekly column on politics and domestic and foreign affairs. He began his column with The Post in 1974, and he received the Pulitzer Prize for commentary in 1977. His latest book, "American Happiness and Discontents," was released in September 2021.

[David81]

The other key assumption in budget projections is discount rate...what was the assumption and what was actual?

Interesting article by George F. Will in the Washington Post this morning on this very subject (hope it is readable and not blocked by a pay wall).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/30/high-college-tuition-marketing-tool/?utm_campaign=wp_follow_george_f_will&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl-georgefwill

Opinion  Colleges hide the truth about tuition

By George F. Will
Columnist
|
Follow
August 30, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. EDT

From sea to shining sea, the shining faces of young people are turning expectantly toward another year in the groves of academe. Heading for college, they leave behind parents who might understandably be bewildered about the price of higher education. (Higher than what? It's complicated, and a question for another day.)

There is ample evidence that colleges mangle the truth about so many subjects (e.g., history, contemporary life, how literature should be studied, freedom of expression on campuses, etc.) that it should not surprise anyone that the counterintuitive reality about tuition is deliberately obscured — and cunningly complicated.

Fortunately, Dan Currell has entertainingly dispelled the manufactured mists that engulf "The Truth About College Costs," which is the title of his astringent essay in the summer issue of National Affairs. Formerly a senior adviser at the Education Department, Currell has glad tidings: "Students are paying less for college than they did 15 years ago."

This is, as Currell knows, "deeply contrary to conventional wisdom," but the reason for it is hiding in plain sight: "In the late 1980s and early 1990s, colleges discovered that the appearance of high tuition was good for marketing." Since then, they have toiled to keep "nearly invisible" the fact that 96 percent of students pay about $15,000 a year for tuition. Add $10,000 for room and board, and the $25,000 total is a far cry from the eye-watering numbers that colleges are actually pleased to have bandied about.

A few highly selective colleges educate a "small and highly unrepresentative" fraction of students. "The top 100 private schools enroll around 500,000 students," while the other 2,600 four-year schools enroll about 10.5 million. Most of the elite schools could fill their annual enrollments several times over with the children of the affluent who would gladly pay the advertised tuition — even much more. Most of these elite institutions have, however, large endowments that enable generous tuition assistance for the less affluent. For the other institutions, a sleight of hand is the basic business practice.

The Economist largely validates Currell's thesis. It reports that the average tuition paid by students at their home-state public colleges is about $10,000, and that private colleges discount tuition by more than 50 percent on average. "The College Board, a non-profit, shows that whereas published tuition and fees for private non-profit colleges increased from $29,000 in 2006-07 to $38,000 in 2021-22 (in 2021 dollars), the net price actually decreased from $17,000 to $15,000. The story is similar for public colleges. Published tuition and fees were nearly $8,000 in 2006-07 and rose to nearly $11,000 in 2021-22, but the net cost fell by $730."

But, the Economist says, schools have "an incentive to seem extortionate": "Consumers tend to associate higher prices with higher quality." (Currell: "Bowdoin's published tuition today is $4,000 higher than Harvard's.") The Economist adds, "students (and their boastful parents) are flattered by tuition markdowns pitched as merit scholarships rather than discounts."

The discounts often are, Currell says, "institutional scholarships" with no money behind them. "By 1999," he says, "the fundamental dishonesty of college pricing had become clear": "That year, American private colleges purported to award scholarships worth more than all the tuition they collected — which is to say, their average discount had exceeded 50%." That explains this faux mystery: Colleges ostensibly cost $50,000 a year, "but," Currell says drolly, "they are somehow also running out of money." The not-at-all-mysterious reality is, Currell says, that "the apparent rise in tuition after the mid-1990s" is "almost entirely illusory."

"In fact," Currell says, "if a typical college collected its sticker price in full, its leaders would hardly know what to do with all the money." For example, Beloit College, a Wisconsin liberal arts school with a $43 million budget, would have an extra $26 million.

Colleges can minimize their discounts by instead steering parents toward having government provide the discount with subsidized student loans. Among the social costs of what Currell calls the "fundamental dishonesty" about college pricing is today's mountain of college debt: "Many families simply believe there is a $200,000 tollbooth on the road to the American dream, so they sign the loan forms."

Academia has appointed itself the nation's moral tutor whose duty is to make Americans remorseful about almost everything, including deceptive practices that the tutor insists characterize unsavory capitalism. So, it is fun to have Currell's demonstration that our supposed moral betters have practices that are, to use one of their favorite words, problematic.

Opinion by George F. Will
George F. Will writes a twice-weekly column on politics and domestic and foreign affairs. He began his column with The Post in 1974, and he received the Pulitzer Prize for commentary in 1977. His latest book, "American Happiness and Discontents," was released in September 2021.

It took him a while to get there, but he finally got around to the primary, material question about college costs to students and families who don't have loads of cash to spare: What are the student's projected debt principal, interest, and repayment terms? Everything else merely informs that question.

The Niche site reports that 63% of VU students take out student loans averaging $7986 annually: https://www.niche.com/colleges/valparaiso-university/student-loans/ That puts the average student debt principal at around $32,000 covering a four-year degree program. Not great, but not awful, and certainly a far cry from the $200,000 nightmare figures that one occasionally encounters in connection with private university student loan debt.

The fact that 37% of VU students do not take out student loans also suggests a student body somewhat more affluent than the one of my day (1970s/1980s). This may well include children of VU alums who harnessed their Valpo education to move up the economic ladder a step or two, via either career opportunities directly after graduation or grad school possibilities made possible by their success at VU.

[vu72]

That puts the average student debt principal at around $32,000 covering a four-year degree program.

Some perspective here.  Let's assume for a moment that David's conclusion of a total student debt of $32,000 is correct.  If so, if you apply a fairly typical 4.5% interest rate and a 10 year payment option (there are longer options), the monthly payment is $330 a month.  Not insignificant.  About half of the typical young person's first car payment.

However, is it too much when analyzing the life long value of a Valpo education?  Getting a BSN or Masters from Nursing, getting a CPA, CFA or CFP from Business, or getting an engineering degree?  How about the slam dunk nature of getting into a graduate or medical school if you are a Christ College grad?

Yes, if puts a burden on a young person that one entering into a trade won't have, but over a lifetime, I doubt the numbers from the various college options versus the non-college choices would be even be close.

[David81]

That puts the average student debt principal at around $32,000 covering a four-year degree program.

Some perspective here.  Let's assume for a moment that David's conclusion of a total student debt of $32,000 is correct.  If so, if you apply a fairly typical 4.5% interest rate and a 10 year payment option (there are longer options), the monthly payment is $330 a month.  Not insignificant.  About half of the typical young person's first car payment.

However, is it too much when analyzing the life long value of a Valpo education?  Getting a BSN or Masters from Nursing, getting a CPA, CFA or CFP from Business, or getting an engineering degree?  How about the slam dunk nature of getting into a graduate or medical school if you are a Christ College grad?

Yes, if puts a burden on a young person that one entering into a trade won't have, but over a lifetime, I doubt the numbers from the various college options versus the non-college choices would be even be close.

If some of you who graduated during the last century would like a comparative perspective, using a CPI inflation calculator in reverse, that $32,000 of student loan debt for a 2023 graduate is the rough equivalent of $15,000 for a 1993 graduate and $10,500 for a 1983 graduate. I think the average 1983 VU graduate, for example would've regarded $10,500 as being on the high side, but compared to other private universities it would not have been outrageous.

I think the $32k figure is on the edge of tolerable for a liberal arts/humanities grad who does not plan to seek a graduate/professional degree that adds major income potential. A 15-year repayment period would soften the monthly hit, but raise the amount of interest paid.

Assuming student loans are here to stay, one reform is to make them no-interest. That would help a lot.

[valpopal]

If you received the News & Notes from the Alumni Network yesterday, the opening sentence should be a little reassuring to those who were uncertain about the confusion with the number of freshmen and transfer undergraduates: "Over 700 first-year Beacons and transfers began moving into campus on Saturday, August 19 before the start of classes on Wednesday, August 23."

[crusadermoe]

Still pretty odd wording.  "First year Beacons AND transfers" (who are also in their "first year."  If they are freshmen, why not call them that? 

Oh well. Monday should have the census and once and for all clarity on what numbers report up to the regulatories.

[KreitzerSTL]

I guess a transfer student is still a first-year Beacon... from a certain point of view.

[crusadermoe]

Maybe the "first year Beacon" term is a way to consolidate some odd categories that are not all actual technical freshmen like the new college access stuff. I guess that is fine. 

I just hope that nuance doesn't mean that the FTE realities for fall 2023 are lower than last year or that net income is lower than last year. 

In either case it was expected to be final on Thursday 9/7.