Poll: Preseason Conference Predictions & Expectations

[VU2014]

The college basketball season has officially begun with our first practice starting last night.

This is obviously too early too tell but I wanted to gauge everyones preseason expectations for this team. I want to take this poll in the preseason & redo the poll again right before Conference play starts in December & compare expectations. The Conference is pretty wide open next season with Missouri State being the favorite.

Over on the MVC Fan Forum they have already started discussing & ranking teams: http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4778&start=0

My too early predictions:
1. Missouri State - A talented & veteran roster. MSU's back story is their HC can really recruit but isn't a great coach

2. Loyola - Their HC reputation is similar to MSU's. Great recruiter/not so great coach. I may be too high on them but they have a heavy senior roster but their bigs are young.

3. Illinois State - ISU suffered from transfers but they still have a talented roster & they're the defending League Champs. Muller is well respected.

4. UNI - I could see UNI falling as low as 5 or 6 on this list but I'm ranking them here based on respect for their coach

5. Bradley - I keep on going back & forth between Valpo & Bradley for the 5th spot. I gave them the edge because they return a lot & don't lose any starters but Valpo has a ton turnover with our roster. Bradley's team is really athletic. I've seen some media folks pick them as their sleeper team.

6. Valpo - I could see us finishing anywhere from 4-7

7. SIU - Barry Hinson is the best interview in the league but I'm not as high on their team next season as other are. Potentially another wildcard. They could potentially finish in the Top 5.

8. Indiana State - They have some nice pieces but I don't think next year is their year.

9. Drake - I'm not very high on Drake next season. They hired a new coach this offseason. He's well respect & I know he's recruited better then his predecessors.

10. Evansville - An ugly roster... I'm kind of surprised Marty has last as long as he has at Evansville. Evansville has potential as a program but it may be time to make a coaching change after next season.

It honestly pains me to rank a Valpo team at 6th in the Conference but I think its fair given the amount of turnover with the roster & graduating last years senior class. We're a talented group but we're really young & have 7 new guys on the team & we're joining a newconference. I don't really know what to expect but I'm excited for next season.

Conference Schedule:
Thursday 12/28 at Indiana State 6pm
Sunday 12/31 Missouri State ARC 3pm
Wednesday 1/3 at Bradley 7pm
Saturday 1/6 Southern Illinois ARC 3pm
Wednesday 1/10 Drake ARC 7pm
Saturday 1/13 at Northern Iowa 7pm
Wednesday 1/17 at Missouri State 7pm
Sunday 1/21 Loyola ARC 3pm
Wednesday 1/24 Evansville ARC 7pm
Saturday 1/27 at Illinois State 9pm
Wednesday 1/31 Indiana State ARC 7pm
Saturday 2/3 at Southern Illinois 7pm
Wednesday 2/7 at Evansville 7pm
Sunday 2/11 Illinois State ARC 3pm
Wednesday 2/14 at Loyola TBA
Saturday 2/17 Bradley ARC 7pm
Tuesday 2/20 Northern Iowa ARC 8pm
Saturday 2/24 at Drake TBA

[M]

1st place!  Probably not realistic, but I'm a fan with my blinders on when it comes to making predictions like this. 

[VULB#62]

I think we finish with a 11-7 MVC record. I think we lose both games to Mo State and IL State, take both from Loyola (yes, both games), Drake, IN State and EU and split with Bradley, SIU and UNI.  I think that will get us a 4th (or tied for 4th) place finish.  I also predict that our team steadily improves over the season and that we lose only 2 games (@ SIU and IL State) in the final 8 games of the season and come into Arch Madness as everyone's dark horse.   

[Dave_2010]

I think we finish with a 11-7 MVC record. I think we lose both games to Mo State and IL State, take both from Loyola (yes, both games), Drake, IN State and EU and split with Bradley, SIU and UNI.  I think that will get us a 4th (or tied for 4th) place finish.  I also predict that our team steadily improves over the season and that we lose only 2 games (@ SIU and IL State) in the final 8 games of the season and come into Arch Madness as everyone's dark horse.

LOL, win in Evansville...certainly not if the refs have anything to say about it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VU2014]

I'm pleasantly surprised by the votes so far. Some people are a little more optimistic then me. I guess I could be a little pessimistic but I generally try to air on the side of caution when making predictions.

[zvillehaze]

I voted third because:

1.  Valpo will be better than many expect because they're adding two P-5 transfers who spent last year with the team AND the returning guys will be improved ... especially the sophomores who gained a lot of experience last year as freshmen.

2.  I feel the "step up" in conference is a bit overstated.  Valpo has had recent success against MVC teams, and quite frankly, the MVC will be down a bit next season.  Better than the current Horizon League, but probably not as good as the Horizon League was when they joined (at least when talking about the upper half of the conference).   

[bbtds]

LOL, win in Evansville...certainly not if the refs have anything to say about it.

I was at the last game in Evansville and the refs were horrible. If we could have contained their big scorer in the first half and Peters would have been allowed in that first half by the officials to put up the points all the times he was shoved and no fouls were called as he scored in the 2nd half then Valpo wins. Alec was just coming back from Washington, IL after his hometown had been hit by a tornado. He was raw with emotion but was hit every time he got the ball in the first half like it was a football game. While the purple aces big scorer was left open and fouls were called when he was touched.

[VU2014]

MSU head coach handicapping the league. (start 0:30)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbOsxy-qln0&t=5s

[VU2014]

I voted third because:
1.  Valpo will be better than many expect because they're adding two P-5 transfers who spent last year with the team AND the returning guys will be improved ... especially the sophomores who gained a lot of experience last year as freshmen.

I'm expecting big things from Joe Burton this upcoming season. He sounds like a stud. As for Bakari I'm a little bit more tempered on my expectations because PG is some what more demanding of a position & he doesn't have much collegiate experience yet. He sounds like a nice talent but played just 88 minutes in 18 games as a true freshman & his senior year of HS only play 9 games because he transferred his SR year of high school & it caused an eligibility problem. Its reasonable to expect some rust and mistakes next season. I think he can be a good player but I need to see it first. He sounds like he could be a potential impact guy I'm just not sure he'll be that player we all hope early on next season.

I'm really expecting a big year from Tevonn who will be a more featured offensive player next season. I'm going to looking for his jump shot/3pt % to improve next season. People outside of our fan-base and some media folks are sleeping on him because all they see is the box scores. He'll surprise fans in the MVC next season.

We haven't heard much about how guys look in practice yet but Paul mentioned Max is stepping up in that leadership role and every time Coach Lottich does an interview one of the first players he mentions is Max Joseph. So I'm wondering if Max will play a bigger role next season. When guys got injured last season his role increased and he wasn't always the most consistent or reliable guy on the court but he did have his moments where looked good but those were too few.

I want to know how the freshman are looking & will we be relying on one or two of them this season? Our Power Forwards are all true freshman so we are going to need them to step up. Everything we've heard about Mileek is the ceiling is really high & could be a very versatile player but he's a little raw. My prediction is Linssen is going to need to step up. He has international experience & coach said he's the type of player that will fight for rebounds. Thats a key ingredient to playing time as a young player.

We need the Sophomores to take the next step:
-Sorolla needs to not wear down as the season goes on. Sorolla didn't look great in the FIBA U20 during the summer, but its hard take anything from that because of the style play the team was running. Sorolla was good early on in the season.
-Smits need to embrace a little more physicality when fighting for rebounds. He'll never be a physical player but he need to put himself in a better position to rebound & box out in the post.
-Micah needs to improve also. I know it wasn't a great freshman year but you can see the tools in him. I think he'll have more confidence with a season under his belt. I want to know how he looks in practice.

2.  I feel the "step up" in conference is a bit overstated.  Valpo has had recent success against MVC teams, and quite frankly, the MVC will be down a bit next season.  Better than the current Horizon League, but probably not as good as the Horizon League was when they joined (at least when talking about the upper half of the conference).   

Agreed the "step up" in competition is overrated but the MVC is a better coached league and there aren't as many "cupcake" games against YSU/UWM/UDM. Drake & Evansville might not be great teams but are still tougher competition then HL's bottom half.

Also the MVC teams are better defensive teams at least from what I've noticed. It's just a better a league & the competition is tougher.

[VU2014]

The MVC Forum has been doing its fan prediction polls for teams.

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4791&p=109132#p109132

Official MVCfans.com - Predictions:
10th Place - Evansville
9th Place - Drake
8th Place - Indiana State
7th Place - Bradley
6th Place - .....  (Valpo is currently the leading vote for 6th)


I voted for SIU for 6th place.

[VU2014]

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4791

Update: Valpo is currently leading the vote for 6th place in the MVC (32 total votes)

Valpo: 50%
SIU: 34%
IL St: 13%
UNI: 3%
LU: 0%
MSU: 0%

[VU2014]

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4791

Update: Valpo is still currently leading the vote for 6th place in the MVC (55 total votes)

Valpo: 49%
SIU: 29%
IL St: 15%
UNI: 4%
MSU: 4%
LU: 0%

[oklahomamick]

I thought the mvc fans were an intelligent fan base.  I've seen several comment on what a good coach Wardle is....Unless something changed from his HL days, I don't see it.  Good recruiter though.  I hope we shock the mvc fans and finish top 3. 

So far our mens and womens soccer teams are doing well.  It's a big jump from HL to MVC for volleyball and thats showing. 

[vu72]

I thought the mvc fans were an intelligent fan base.  I've seen several comment on what a good coach Wardle is....Unless something changed from his HL days, I don't see it.  Good recruiter though.  I hope we shock the mvc fans and finish top 3. 

So far our mens and womens soccer teams are doing well. It's a big jump from HL to MVC for volleyball and thats showing. 

[/b]

It's more than that.  When we were up 2-0 against Illinois State and then ended up losing 3-2, we were out-coached.

[covufan]

Next season or this season?

[VU2014]

Next season or this season?

2017-2018 season

I thought the mvc fans were an intelligent fan base.  I've seen several comment on what a good coach Wardle is....Unless something changed from his HL days, I don't see it.  Good recruiter though.  I hope we shock the mvc fans and finish top 3. 

So far our mens and womens soccer teams are doing well.  It's a big jump from HL to MVC for volleyball and thats showing. 

Somewhat expected and fair imo. There isn't much of a difference between 4-7, and maybe even up to 3 in the MVC. One comment that I found surprising on the MVC board was that Valpo's ceiling was 5th. I can't argue much on the predicting a 5th place finish but I wouldn't put a hard cap on this team's ability or ceiling at 5th place in the MVC next year.

As for the Wardle comments. I think you have to give fans time to see flaws in a coach. I don't think Wardle's a great coach but I don't think he's a bad one either. Like you mentioned he's always been a great recruiter. He's actually done a really nice job recruiting at Bradley and bringing in talent but he took over a program that was in rough shape. The expectations will be higher going forward for him now that he has "his" players in place. But you never know, maybe Wardle has grown as coach from his days in Green Bay. Fun Fact: Bryce actually interviewed and was offered the Bradley job before Wardle was, but he turned it down. Smart move by Bryce.

It's a really tough year to predict the MVC this upcoming season. It should be a really tight and competitive when we get to Conference play.

[ml2]

I noticed someone on the MVC board make the "Valpo's not used to tougher competition" argument. I went back and checked the KenPom numbers, and (a little to my surprise) they backed up the poster's thoughts. Despite our strong non-conference scheduling over the past couple seasons, our 4 year average KenPom strength of schedule rating is the weakest of the 10 current MVC members. You really can't discount the difficulty of having your 18 conference games being against tougher competition from top to bottom. Here is how the numbers shook out.

Team       4yr Avg KenPom SoS
UNI          3.54
ISUr          1.80
ISUb          1.56
BU          1.25
DU          1.15
MSU          0.99
UE             0.04
SIU         -0.58
LUC         -0.74
Valpo      -1.22

[vu72]

I noticed someone on the MVC board make the "Valpo's not used to tougher competition" argument. I went back and checked the KenPom numbers, and (a little to my surprise) they backed up the poster's thoughts. Despite our strong non-conference scheduling over the past couple seasons, our 4 year average KenPom strength of schedule rating is the weakest of the 10 current MVC members. You really can't discount the difficulty of having your 18 conference games being against tougher competition from top to bottom. Here is how the numbers shook out.

Team       4yr Avg KenPom SoS
UNI          3.54
ISUr          1.80
ISUb          1.56
BU          1.25
DU          1.15
MSU          0.99
UE             0.04
SIU         -0.58
LUC         -0.74
Valpo      -1.22

You mean to tell me that playing YSU and CSU twice a year is bad for your strength of schedule?? 

[Valpower]

I noticed someone on the MVC board make the "Valpo's not used to tougher competition" argument. I went back and checked the KenPom numbers, and (a little to my surprise) they backed up the poster's thoughts. Despite our strong non-conference scheduling over the past couple seasons, our 4 year average KenPom strength of schedule rating is the weakest of the 10 current MVC members. You really can't discount the difficulty of having your 18 conference games being against tougher competition from top to bottom. Here is how the numbers shook out.

Team       4yr Avg KenPom SoS
UNI          3.54
ISUr          1.80
ISUb          1.56
BU          1.25
DU          1.15
MSU          0.99
UE             0.04
SIU         -0.58
LUC         -0.74
Valpo      -1.22

We know Valpo hasn't played tougher competition (on average) because of the relative weakness of the HL.  But it's easy to make too much of it if don't analyze performance. In the end, you can only beat the teams you play.  Whoever on the MVC board that even dares to invoke this logic needs to have their mid-major badge revoked and, if it's an ISUr fan, they should be made to walk the plank. This is the same argument the majors making for excluding good mid-majors from the NCAA tournament.

[covufan]

After reviewing my poll pick, I'm updating Valpo to finish first.

Valpo
Loyola
Illinois State
Bradley
Northern Iowa
Drake
Indiana State
Southern Illinois
Missouri State
Evansville

Will need to relook at this to see how well I did next March!

[wh]

1st place!  Probably not realistic, but I'm a fan with my blinders on when it comes to making predictions like this. 

Ditto.

It may be wishful thinking, but I'm not going to bet against a program that won the HL 5 of the past 6 years and has the highest average player ranking in the MVC.

[a3uge]

I noticed someone on the MVC board make the "Valpo's not used to tougher competition" argument. I went back and checked the KenPom numbers, and (a little to my surprise) they backed up the poster's thoughts. Despite our strong non-conference scheduling over the past couple seasons, our 4 year average KenPom strength of schedule rating is the weakest of the 10 current MVC members. You really can't discount the difficulty of having your 18 conference games being against tougher competition from top to bottom. Here is how the numbers shook out.

Team       4yr Avg KenPom SoS
UNI          3.54
ISUr          1.80
ISUb          1.56
BU          1.25
DU          1.15
MSU          0.99
UE             0.04
SIU         -0.58
LUC         -0.74
Valpo      -1.22

This is skewed by each team playing Wichita State twice (and usually losing to them both times). So good for Bradley and Indiana State for losing to good teams? That really gives them an edge.

[VU2014]

One of Indiana State's beat reporter has Valpo finishing 9th in the MVC...I don't want to get on my high horse but 9th is unacceptable. We better not finish 9th.

This preseason prediction is bothering me way more then it should. I almost feel offended and I'm just a fan. This is bulletin board material. The players and coaches should feel slighted by this.

https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918300476713717760

[VULB#62]

I can understand bulletin board material in a physical sport like football. But BB is a skill and finesse sport. You play with who you have. Emotion has a place but it does not always translate to points if your emotions cause you to miss shots.

[VU2014]

I can understand bulletin board material in a physical sport like football. But BB is a skill and finesse sport. You play with who you have. Emotion has a place but it does not always translate to points if your emotions cause you to miss shots.

I agree and disagree. I think "bulletin board material" still helps in basketball in motivating players and causes them to have a chip on their shoulder particularly at this level. Basketball is a game of effort. There are some games where one team is favorited to win and the team comes out of the gate with zero energy or enthusiasm to play certain opponents. We've seen heavily favored Valpo teams in the past come out with a lack motivation. Stuff like this can motivate players when its in the back of their heads.

Having the most talented roster is the most important element to winning in basketball but at the collegiate level there are other important factors (more so then the pros): coaching has a greater impact at this level & energy/effort go a long way, imho.

These guys should have a chip on their shoulder if they see preseason predictions like this one.