Poll: Preseason Conference Predictions & Expectations

[VU2014]

More Missouri Valley Conference Preseason Predictions

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/918321020137820160

Busting Brackets did a preseason power ranking and it definitely has some surprises. I don't agree with their ranking but they are very high on Valpo next season.

https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/10/11/mvc-basketball-2017-18-power-rankings/

One of Indiana State's beat reporter has Valpo finishing 9th in the MVC...I don't want to get on my high horse but 9th is unacceptable. We better not finish 9th.

This preseason prediction is bothering me way more then it should. I almost feel offended and I'm just a fan. This is bulletin board material. The players and coaches should feel slighted by this.

https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918300476713717760

[FWalum]

Quote from: VU2014 on October 11, 2017, 10:42:52 PM

    One of Indiana State's beat reporter has Valpo finishing 9th in the MVC...I don't want to get on my high horse but 9th is unacceptable. We better not finish 9th.

    This preseason prediction is bothering me way more then it should. I almost feel offended and I'm just a fan. This is bulletin board material. The players and coaches should feel slighted by this.

This beat reporter guy has no clue.

[oklahomamick]

Todd Goldon has lost me before he ever had me.  Can't take this guy seriously. 

[VU2014]

This beat reporter guy has no clue.

Todd Goldon has lost me before he ever had me.  Can't take this guy seriously. 

Yeah I think he was erring on the side of caution with VU with graduating that great senior class/youth/new league. I would be very disappointed with the team & coaches if this team finished anywhere below 7th. Finishing 9th is just unacceptable in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918304948563034112
https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918303499267567616
https://twitter.com/TribStarTodd/status/918319458862673920

Another MVC beat reporters (Illinois State) ballot:
https://twitter.com/Pg_Benson/status/918313563118333954
https://twitter.com/Pg_Benson/status/918519167980113920

Has Paul or Michael publicly released their ballot yet?

[FWalum]

Anybody have any information on when the MVC Media day for Basketball might be?  I haven't seen anything on the MVC fan forum or on the MVC official site.

[VU2014]

Anybody have any information on when the MVC Media day for Basketball might be?  I haven't seen anything on the MVC fan forum or on the MVC official site.

MVC Media Day is October 24. That is when they release the Preseason Polls voted on by the media.

[EddieCabot]

NBC Sports issued their MVC preview here ... http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2017/10/13/2017-18-missouri-valley-conference-preview-who-steps-up-with-wichita-state-gone/  I apologize if already posted somewhere.

[crusadermoe]

This seems reasonable.  But like many others, I see huge upside due to Joe Burton and the unknown raw potential of the big guys.   And of course, there is a floor of 7th or 8th in play too.

[VU2014]

Preseason KenPom Rankings are out: https://kenpom.com/

IL St 87
Loyola 93
MoState 99
UNI 129
Valpo 131
Bradley 133
SIU 148
Evansville 160
Ind St 203
Drake 223

In terms of ranking the teams 1-10, I think he got the bottom 5-6 correct but Illinois State being the best team in the conference?  I don't think so.

Valpo moves from the 17th best to the 10th best conference in the country according to kenpom.
https://twitter.com/mid_madness/status/922243749383671809

[VULB#62]

I know this is not totally valid nor does it mean anything, but based on the conference rankings, Valpo made a bigger jump in league rankings (MVC #10 from HL #17) than Wichita (AAC #7 from MVC#10). 

[bbtds]

I know this is not totally valid nor does it mean anything, but based on the conference rankings, Valpo made a bigger jump in league rankings (MVC #10 from HL #17) than Wichita (AAC #7 from MVC#10). 

Shhhh!   

Someone from Oakland may get an inferiority complex.

[VUGrad1314]

Yet the relative increase in strength is pretty close. Wichita State jumped to a conference in the AAC that was +4.93 when compared to the Missouri Valley. While Valpo jumped +5.58 from the Horizon to the MVC. (of course these numbers have the realignments of those leagues already figured in). I guess the higher or lower you start the greater the difference. Now imagine if Murray State and perhaps Belmont make the jump to the MVC: (+8.18 WITHOUT factoring in realignment going from 24 to 10). Side note: Somehow that's still not good enough for Belmont. For the Dakotas or ORU to jump from the Summit to the MVC the move is (+6.37) None of the teams mentioned as possibilities have a resume even close to VU's at the same relative strength of competition, meaning our jump to the MVC though significant is less than the other popular candidates while we faced the strongest competition among the group of candidates and still performed the best against that competition; yet fans in the MVC seem extremely concerned with our ability to compete at their level while they don't seem nearly as concerned about these other candidates. I don't get that at all.

What's amazing to me is the disparity even among the Power 5 and the other multibid conferences. No wonder UCONN wants in to the Big East. No wonder top A10 teams want the same or even the AAC. (the rating is more than twice as great between the A10 and the AAC and about 4.5 times between the A10 and the Big East). This chart gives me hope that the MVC can be a 2-3 bid conference again. I think we should be trying to organize a conference challenge with the A10 in addition to keeping our agreement with the MWC. Our goal should be to catch these two conferences if at all possible. The chart also makes me feel bad for the top teams in the WCC who are really carrying the water for an otherwise decidedly mediocre conference. Maybe the next big wave of realignment will see them all in better leagues.

[IrishDawg]

Preseason KenPom Rankings are out: https://kenpom.com/

IL St 87
Loyola 93
MoState 99
UNI 129
Valpo 131
Bradley 133
SIU 148
Evansville 160
Ind St 203
Drake 223

In terms of ranking the teams 1-10, I think he got the bottom 5-6 correct but Illinois State being the best team in the conference?  I don't think so.

Valpo moves from the 17th best to the 10th best conference in the country according to kenpom.
https://twitter.com/mid_madness/status/922243749383671809

Kenpom's preseason ratings are based on past ratings, players returning, and impact freshmen (Top 100).  So realistically, once you get outside the power conferences, it's based on past ratings and players returning.  https://kenpom.com/blog/say-hello-to-your-big-ten-overlords/

It's honestly about as good as any preseason rating system.  There are things it gets wrong, and things it gets right.  The real beauty in his system is ranking teams based purely on performance throughout the season and not using SOS numbers to determine it.

[IrishDawg]

Yet the relative increase in strength is pretty close. Wichita State jumped to a conference in the AAC that was +4.93 when compared to the Missouri Valley. While Valpo jumped +5.58 from the Horizon to the MVC. (of course these numbers have the realignments of those leagues already figured in). I guess the higher or lower you start the greater the difference. Now imagine if Murray State and perhaps Belmont make the jump to the MVC: (+8.18 WITHOUT factoring in realignment going from 24 to 10). Side note: Somehow that's still not good enough for Belmont. For the Dakotas or ORU to jump from the Summit to the MVC the move is (+6.37) None of the teams mentioned as possibilities have a resume even close to VU's at the same relative strength of competition, meaning our jump to the MVC though significant is less than the other popular candidates while we faced the strongest competition among the group of candidates and still performed the best against that competition; yet fans in the MVC seem extremely concerned with our ability to compete at their level while they don't seem nearly as concerned about these other candidates. I don't get that at all.

What's amazing to me is the disparity even among the Power 5 and the other multibid conferences. No wonder UCONN wants in to the Big East. No wonder top A10 teams want the same or even the AAC. (the rating is more than twice as great between the A10 and the AAC and about 4.5 times between the A10 and the Big East). This chart gives me hope that the MVC can be a 2-3 bid conference again. I think we should be trying to organize a conference challenge with the A10 in addition to keeping our agreement with the MWC. Our goal should be to catch these two conferences if at all possible. The chart also makes me feel bad for the top teams in the WCC who are really carrying the water for an otherwise decidedly mediocre conference. Maybe the next big wave of realignment will see them all in better leagues.

In my opinion, the Big East wants UConn as its 11th team way more than UConn wants to be in the Big East.  If UConn wanted in the Big East, even as a basketball only member, they'd pretty much just have to ask.

What's crazy to look at is the KenPom conference strength numbers for the MVC and MWC going from the 2013 season to the 2014 season.  In 2013, the MWC was the 4th best conference, had 5 NCAA tourney bids, with all 5 of those teams in the top 60.  Since then they've never been better than 9th in the conference ratings, and have been a one-bid league the last 2 years despite them adding 2 schools after the 2013 season (San Jose St. and Utah St.), so they can't even blame realignment.

The MVC didn't drop in the conference rankings as much as the MWC, but in 2013, they had 2 bids, but both of those teams were rated in the top 20, and then they also had 6/10 teams in the top 100 and had a conference rating of +7.72.  Obviously a major reason for the drop was replacing Creighton with Loyola, but even so, the league (at best) has only been able to get 3/10 teams in the top 100 in the years since then.  In my opinion, for the conference to return to a consistent, multi-bid league, there definitely needs to be consistent, high-level play at the top, but the teams below that have to improve their play as well.

[vu72]

I know this is not totally valid nor does it mean anything, but based on the conference rankings, Valpo made a bigger jump in league rankings (MVC #10 from HL #17) than Wichita (AAC #7 from MVC#10). 

This may have been posted previously but, does you analysis (statement) take into account that The Valley may be ranked lower without Wichita State and adding Valpo?  The same could be said of the ACC.  They should be ranked higher after adding Wichita State.  Right?

[VUGrad1314]

Yes these are preseason rankings that have factored in the realignment moves. As I've shown the leap for us from the HL to the MVC is somewhat akin to the move between the MVC and the AAC is for the Shockers in terms of relative strength increase Of course the Shockers are moving from a higher starting point to a higher ending point so their potential benefit is probably greater  especially in the present NCAA climate but the magnitude of this move for Valpo cannot be understated. We've gone from no shot at an at-large bid to at least potentially having a shot as long as we all--every MVC member--pull our weight

[VUGrad1314]

I respectfully disagree on UCONN IrishDawg I think UCONN is realizing that the grass isn't always greener on the side of FBS football and while the AAC has some legit programs it is much more top heavy with more bottom feeders than the Big East. Make no mistake about it the Shockers may be thrilled to be in the AAC and UCONN may consider it an okay place to be right now but any non-P5 basketball school that gets an invite to the Big East will leave their present conference with a quickness that will make your head spin.

[crusadermoe]

The number of rungs you rise on the ladder are interesting to compare.  But the cash gap really widens between the top rungs as you go downward from P-5 and Big East.  Wonder what the gap is in revenue?...    There were stats on basketball revenue on the board at some point.

[VU2014]

http://www.nwitimes.com/digital/audio/union-street-hoops/podcast-union-street-hoops-episode/audio_a33ea8b8-b2cb-11e7-8117-ebddbce43123.html

Paul Oren's MVC Ballot: Definitely recommend hearing him break it down on the podcast (12:15-22:20)
1. Missouri State
2. Loyola
3. Valpo
4. Illinois State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Indiana State
7. SIU
8. Bradley
9. Drake
10. Evansville

[VULB#62]

Here's the official preseason poll.  Valpo 6th and Tevonn 2nd Team MVC.

http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2017-18/17711/walker-tabbed-preseason-second-team-selection-valpo-picked-sixth/#.We9GPEyZMo8

[valpopal]

Here's the official preseason poll.  Valpo 6th and Tevonn 2nd Team MVC.

http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/news/2017-18/17711/walker-tabbed-preseason-second-team-selection-valpo-picked-sixth/#.We9GPEyZMo8

Can't blame the voters, most of whom see this Valpo squad as an unknown quantity (as do most on this board) and are loyal to longtime conference members. However, this information should serve as motivational material for Tevonn and the team.

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/collegehoopnews/status/922838595538432000

[talksalot]

Regardless of 3rd or 5th or 6th... That New Year's Eve game with Da'Bears in the ARC will be a fun one to watch.

[covufan]

Massey has his pre-season rankings out.  Here is the MVC:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12684&s=298892

[valpopal]

Massey has his pre-season rankings out.  Here is the MVC:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12684&s=298892

Interesting to check this out, which is the most optimistic pre-season ranking I have seen. It looks like he has Valpo 2nd in the MVC behind only Illinois State, and with a #104 national rank. He also predicts Valpo goes 11-7 in the conference, 17-10 overall. Right now, I'd be pleased with these results.