Game #9 - @ Jacksonville

[VULB#62]

The first team defense finally played the game I thought they might be capable of yesterday. That is good news going into Saturday's game with the Bulldogs.  We will need great effort on both sides of the ball to be competitive.

[valpofb16]

Butler is game 10 , Jville game 9, that being said, Roll Damm Cru!

[VULB#62]

Yeah, that's what I said 

[JD24]

Jacksonville had nearly 400 yards on the ground. 4 different runners over 70 yards. Jacksonville has been involved in a few shootouts so far and Valpo should be able to score on them. Valpo has played much better at home than they have on the road.

[vu72]

The one thing that is certain is that previous scores in the PFL are not a prediction of future scores.  You know, JU beat Marist by 7, we beat Marist by 34.  Stetson beat Davidson by 11, JU bet them by 14, We beat Stetson.  That sort of thing.  The one obvious thing is that Valpo is playing at a different level then in earlier games played against teams like Drake and Campbell.

I think Coach C said it well in the post game interview when asked why?  A few things. First we are healthy.  Our team leader at center(Jack Jarnigan) is back.  Second, the freshman who were forced into action due to injury now have some experience and are more comfortable.  Most importantly we are winning the turnover war.  12 in the last two games.

I like our chance on the road, Valpo by 10.

[valpofb16]

Alright Offense
Senior: Blue
Junior: Green
Sophomore: Purple
Freshman: Red

Quarterback
#9 Jimmy Seewald SO. (8/8)
#14 Chris Duncan RSFR. (0/8)   
#4 Joe Mullen RSSO. (0/1)   
#11 Trey Bilinski FR. (RS)   #13 Ryan Markoff FR. (RS)

Running back
#10 Jarrett Morgan SR. (6/6)   
#44 Kyle Cartales SO. (2/8)   
#32 Cody Boxrucker SO. (0/7)   
#21 Elias Earley RSSO. (0/7)   
#15 Doug Haugh FR. (RS)

Full back/ H Back
#40 Brannen Martin RSFR. (0/7)

Split End
#30 Frank Catrine SR. (8/8)   
#2 Griffin Norberg JR. (0/8)   
#82 Deuce Larose FR. (0/7)   
#85 TJ Weinzimmer FR. (RS)

Wide Out
#3 Parker Fox RSSO. (8/8)   
#12 JD Koehler RSSO. (0/8)   
#19 Trey Stablein FR. (RS)   #86 Kevin Wright FR. (RS)

Slot
#1 Jean Rene JR. (6/6)   
#26 Donny Navarro FR. (2/8)   
#23 Bailey Gessinger SO. (0/8)   
#33 Connor Beer FR. (RS)

Tight End
#84 Mason Sutter JR. (8/8)   
#16 Ryan Clarke SR. (0/8)   
#87 Martin Petruff SO. (0/8)   
#31 Alex Kluck FR. (RS)   #80 Brett Bittner FR. (RS)

Left Tackle
#77 Terrence Roberts RSSO. (6/6)   
#76 Alex Cotton RSSO. (3/8)   
#74 James Zajac RSFR. (0/2)

Left Guard
#67 Eric Rentschler JR. (8/8)   
#66 Sam Vas FR. (0/7)   
#50 John Horan RSSO. (0/0)

Center
#65 Jack Jarnigan RSSO. (7/7)   
#70 Brady Sullivan RSSO. (1/8)   
#69 Alex Helander RSSO. (0/1)   
#51 Nick Antonacci FR. (RS)

Right Guard
#73 Tom Schofield JR. (8/8)   
#72 Solomon Kamara RSFR. (0/7)   
#61 Sean Pierce SO. (RS)(INJ)   #64 Sean Stephens RSFR. (0/0)

Right Tackle
#60 Andrew Lundberg RSSO. (7/7)   
#75 Shannon Taliaferro JR. (1/7)   
#71 Bryce Biggs RSFR. (0/3)   
#79 Thomas Walsh FR. (RS)

[valpofb16]

Defense

Nose Tackle
#56 Tristan De La Rosa SR. (3/6)   
#93 James Reed SO. (2/3)   
#92 Drew Gedrys FR. (3/8)
#78 Ronald Williams RSFR. (0/0)   #90 Isaac Velasco FR. (RS)   #58 David Mason FR. (RS)


Defensive Tackle
#99 Jakob Trumpower RSSO. (8/8)   
#97 Jeremiah Olojo FR. (0/6)   #62 Nathan Orlandini FR. (0/6)   
#96 Cameron Germain FR. (0/3)   
#94 Humza Razzak RSFR. (0/1)
#42 Jake Iery JR. (INJ)(RS)


Defensive End
#34 Jay Slone RSSR. (7/8)   #54 Jesse Studyvin JR. (INJ)(1/2)   
#91 Jordan Goebel RSFR. (0/8)   
#44 Connor Sperling RSFR. (0/1)   
#95 Murphy Osmond SO. (INJ) (RS)


Outside Linebacker
#18 Mike Wheeler JR. (8/8)   
#33 Gowan Baldwin JR. (0/8)   
#38 Joey Poloskey FR. (0/6)   
#46 Josh Baker FR. (RS)   #89 Cade Bishop FR. (RS)

Inside Linebacker
#24 Drew Snouffer JR. (8/8)   
#6 Logan Pfizenmayer FR. (0/8)   
#39 Jack Buckey SO. (INJ)(RS)

Inside Linebacker
#49 Nick Turner JR. (7/7)   
#47 Matthew Messler RSSO. (0/8)   
#43 John Regan SR. (0/6)


Outside Linebacker
#36 Austin Petrie SO. (6/7)   
#37 Laddie Skarecky FR. (2/8)   
#35 Gavin Twigg FR. (0/8)   
#30 Cole VanSetters FR. (RS)

Cornerback
#5 Jalin Leandre JR. (8/8)   
#14 Cam Kelly FR. (2/8)   
#2 Stacey Jones FR. (RS)

Safety
#4 JJ Nunes RSSR. (7/7)   
#20 Jamari Booker SO. (1/8)   
#45 David Hebda FR. (0/1)
#15 Isaac Lane RSSO. (INJ)

Safety
#28 Joey Diaz-Martinez JR. (8/8)   
#22 Tamone Duncan FR. (0/7)   
#7 Brent Brimmage FR. (0/5)
#19 Bryce Leach FR. (RS)


Cornerback
#17 Brandon Riley SR. (INJ) (1/1) #25 Dilan Scargle FR. (5/7)   
#41 Henry Hebda FR. (0/6)
#31 Corey Shannon FR. (RS)

[vu72]

So we graduate SEVEN starters? All those spots have plenty of experience backing up the graduating guys. The entire offensive line returns!!! Wow!  I suspect we will be getting plenty of respect going into next year.  Top 3 I would guess.

I think we have a shot at winning out.  The Jacksonville game is winnable.  The Butler game is...THE BUTLER GAME!  And, we get Dayton at home where we have played extremely well.  Would be earth shattering if we did it.

[VULB#62]

Here we stand as of the close of games on Saturday [click to enlarge]
In addition we are 5th in PFL scoring and 7th in scoring defense.  It's been a long, long time since I've seen a Valpo FB team this high in the standings this late in the season.

As 72 mentioned below, it is not that whacky to think we could be competitive in all three games that are left.  In watching the game at Brown Field, I could sense the confidence that Dave mentioned in the post game interview.  Watching a stream can't always convey that.  There is almost a swagger there.  That defensive swagger needs to show up (but with great self control) to beat the Jacksonville Flexbone. JU ran for 396 yards vs. Campbell and possesed the ball for 10 minutes more than Campbell in their 54-48 triple OT win.  Interesting observation:  JU passed for 110 yards in the game.  109 went to WR Prince Gray on 4 receptions.  They passed 15 times all game and only completed 5 with 2 picks.  I wonder what our pass coverage will be like come Saturday?


JU RUSHING       ATT    YDS  LOSS  NET TD  LG    AV.
Keenan SIMPSON    17   108      0      108   1     17    6.4
Pernell RATTRAY     16    95       0        95    1     19    5.9
Irvin RILEY             21    96      1        95    1     25    4.5
Rylan WELLS           13   99      26       73   1     40    5.6

Wells is their QB and he ran for 99.  Of the 26 yards he lost 11 were on 2 sacks. Still, he had the longest run of the day at 40 yds.

[covufan]

Continue our winning ways!

Valpo   41
Jax       38

[usc4valpo]

Artis Gilmore U 37
Ginger Zee U 24

[VULB#62]

As most are speculating, this could be a barnburner -- an up and down the field kind of game.

Valpo wins if:   Our O has got to be as efficient as it ever has been to take advantage of every possession.  Given JU can control the ball for long stretches with methodical drives, we can't do a lot of 3-and-outs.  So it comes down to who is better at 3rd down conversions. I'm also thinking that the character of the game will be: JU = series of long, time consuming drives vs.  Valpo = series of quicker, long drives characterized more by big plays.  That puts the Valpo D on the field for a lot of the game -- hope they can stay fresh and maintain focus for 60 minutes. 

Turnovers might also be a factor.  For JAX two kinds of TOs could hurt them -- fumbles off the triple option pitch and, if forced to pass a lot, picks.  On the Valpo side, we have been pretty good with ball security over all 8 games. 

     >> Valpo has fumbled 8 times and only lost 3; JAX has fumbled 23 times and lost 11. 
     >> Valpo has picked off 13 passes and returned them for a total of 131 yards; JAX has picked off 11 for 103
     >> Valpo has been intercepted 10 times on 259 attempts (3.8%); JAX 5 out of only 122 attempts (4.1%)

PFL Stats
Valpo  PF 162  PA 156
JAX     PF 165  PA 206

Yards Allowed:
Valpo 444.4/game (8 games)
JAX 385.6/game (8 games)

A look at the OOC comparative schedules (with opponent's record to date in parentheses):

JAX                                       VALPO
Mercer (FCS 4-4) - L 7-48        Montana (FCS 5-3 ) L 23-45
Walsh (D-II 2-7) - W 56-31      Duquesne (FCS 7-1) L 40-45
Guilford (D-III 4-4) - W 56-21  TIU (NAIA 2-6) W 44-10



Sagarin has Valpo at #243 and JAX at #245  Gonna be close. I look for both teams to score over 30 points.  It may well come down to who winds up with a score on the final possession.  Valpo 36 - JAX 33.

[bbtds]

Artis Gilmore U 37
Ginger Zee U 24

Drew U  41
Daniel Murphy U (Mets/Nats player) 37

[vu72]

As most are speculating, this could be a barnburner -- an up and down the field kind of game.

Alpo wins if:   Our O has got to be as efficient as it ever has been to take advantage of every possession.  Given JU can control the ball for long stretches with methodical drives, we can't do a lot of 3-and-outs.  So it comes down to who is better at 3rd down conversions. I'm also thinking that the character of the game will be: JU = series of long, time consuming drives vs.  Valpo = series of quicker, long drives characterized more by big plays.  That puts the Valpo D on the field for a lot of the game -- hope they can stay fresh and maintain focus for 60 minutes. 

Turnovers might also be a factor.  For JAX two kinds of TOs could hurt them -- fumbles off the triple option pitch and, if forced to pass a lot, picks.  On the Valpo side, we have been pretty good with ball security over all 8 games. 

     >> Valpo has fumbled 8 times and only lost 3; JAX has fumbled 23 times and lost 11. 
     >> Valpo has picked off 13 passes and returned them for a total of 131 yards; JAX has picked off 11 for 103
     >> Valpo has been intercepted 10 times on 259 attempts (3.8%); JAX 5 out of only 122 attempts (4.1%)

PFL Stats
Valpo  PF 162  PA 156
JAX     PF 165  PA 206

Yards Allowed:
Valpo 444.4/game (8 games)
JAX 385.6/game (8 games)

A look at the OOC comparative schedules (with opponent's record to date in parentheses):

JAX                                       VALPO
Mercer (FCS 4-4) - L 7-48        Montana (FCS 5-3 ) L 23-45
Walsh (D-II 2-7) - W 56-31      Duquesne (FCS 7-1) L 40-45
Guilford (D-III 4-4) - W 56-21  TIU (NAIA 2-6) W 44-10



Sagarin has Valpo at #243 and JAX at #245  Gonna be close. I look for both teams to score over 30 points.  It may well come down to who winds up with a score on the final possession.  Valpo 36 - JAX 33.

Great analysis.  I was about to write that our early season opposition was tougher than theirs as they played a D2 (still scholarship) and a D3, which is the equivalent of NAIA.  But after checking I think the Mercer game was a lot tougher than our Montana game.  Did you know that Mercer has or will play both Auburn and Alabama? Wow!

The time of possession will be key as pointed out.  I'm sure Dave will try to grind out drives and then hit for the bigger gains to keep them off the field.  Hopefully our significant takeaway history of late will continue.  A little rain might help!!

[valpo64]

As aside note, we saw the Mercer campus a few years ago...they have a great little stadium(don't know ow many it holds) but it is picturesque as is the rest of the campus.

[VULB#62]

Originally it was around 5,000-6,000.  It is currently at ~12,000

[JD24]

Mercer's facilities are top notch. One look at their football stadium (seats at least 10,000) would have given anyone a slight hint that they had no intention of staying in the PFL from back in their first season 2013.

[JD24]

Originally it was around 5,000-6,000.  It is currently at ~12,000

The original plans were for a smaller capacity. Prior to construction the capacity was upped to over 10,000. Mercer's a nice campus. Just don't wander much from it.

[VULB#62]

The associated field house (offices, locker rooms, performance/weight facilities, and medical and P/T operated by the Mercer Medical School) is state of the art. JD24 is absolutely correct in the assertion that in building all of this it was NOT to play non-scholarship football. Their top attendance mark is 12,172. For Jacksonville, they attracted 9,000+.

[usc4valpo]

I think Mercer faces the Tide and Phyllis from Mulga from Paul Feinbaum fame in a few weeks.

[VULB#62]

Between Auburn and the Tide, I'll bet they clear a cool $1.5 million. You can buy plenty of body bags with that kind of cash. BTW, they held their own against then #15 Auburn losing only 24-10.  They have come quite far in a short time.

[talksalot]

Jax is a 3-pt favorite (from the one line I could find)... the O/U is .... 77.5 !!  (Only the Incarnate Word vs. Sam Houston State has a higher prediction, at 83)


Forecast:
Sunny  81°65°   10%   NNE 11 mph   64% Humidity

yeh, I don't wanna hear it....

[VULB#62]

Being a home game for JU,  that is not a great endorsement.   The O/U does reflect everyone's thought that this will be a track meet.   As far as SHSU v. Incarnate Word goes I'd guess 60 of that is SHSU.

[JD24]

Being a home game for JU,  that is not a great endorsement.   The O/U does reflect everyone's thought that this will be a track meet.   As far as SHSU v. Incarnate Word goes I'd guess 60 of that is SHSU.

Going to be cool for Jacksonville.

[vu72]

Jacksonville's coaches podcast:

https://soundcloud.com/judolphins/behind-the-shields-valparaiso-1