MVC Hoops: 2017-18

[VU2014]

We will beat UNI at home, so we are probably going to be the #9

I'm not sure it's a given but we certainly should play better at home then we did at their place.

I think we have a solid chance to steal one at Drake. Our strong defensive wings are a good matchup for their heavy motion guard based offense.

[VU2014]

I feel like this guy takes joy in Indiana school's struggling other then his beloved butler.
https://twitter.com/Tom101010/status/964362194375753728

[ml2]

He's just a troll looking for clicks. Best to ignore him.

[talksalot]

Looking at the bottom 5 teams in the Valley... and who they have left on the schedule.  Think seeding for Thursday under the Arch

Missouri State 7-8    Drake    Bradley   Northern Iowa
Evansville  6-9   Loyola   Indiana State   Southern Illinois
Indiana State  6-9  Southern Illinois   Evansville   Bradley
Northern Iowa  5-10  Illinois State   Valpo  Missouri State
Valpo   4-11   Bradley   Northern Iowa   Drake

so... if...they would wind up...
MOST   L L W   9-9
EVAN   L L L    6-12
INDS   L W L   7-11
UNIA   L L L     5-13
VALP   W W W  7-11

The winner of the Evansville / Ind St game next Wednesday could go either way and they could flip.  We lose the tie breaker to Evansville based on Head-to-head competition, and we win the tie-breaker over Indiana State based on RPI ...we are 180 they are 181 !  Well, that really doesn't matter if my predictions are right... the 8-9 teams play each other.

We need UNI to lose 2 of their last 3... and one of those losses has to be in the ARC next Tuesday night.

[NativeCheesehead]

Tom Davis.....what an a**hole.

[VU2014]

I feel like Indiana State is a better matchup for us then Evansville for the opening round of Arch Madness on Thursday. Not to mention that could get the rivalry going.

[valpo64]

When T. Davis' team, Butler, has problems, he never says a word...just attacks other schools of mid-major caliber.  Don't bother with him, especially now that his News-Sentinel no longer publishes an afternoon paper in FW.

[VUGrad1314]

Father Harry dropping truth and going in hard on Joe Lunardi and P5 bias:

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/964614987896455174

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/964616012715954178

[a3uge]

Father Harry dropping truth and going in hard on Joe Lunardi and P5 bias:

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/964614987896455174

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/964616012715954178

Lunardi is predicting what the selection committee will do. This isn't his opinion bracket. What evidence is there to suggest the committee won't favor P5 programs over mid majors? Lunardi has actually been pretty supportive of mid majors.

[IrishDawg]

When T. Davis' team, Butler, has problems, he never says a word...just attacks other schools of mid-major caliber.  Don't bother with him, especially now that his News-Sentinel no longer publishes an afternoon paper in FW.

Davis isn't exactly loved on our message board either.  He provided consistent coverage, but would block Butler fans on twitter for simply disagreeing with the way he saw things (FWIW, I'm not on twitter).

[valpotx]

I was watching this Texas this morning, and thinking that they will be in the NIT, and was very surprised to see them included on any NCAA bracket list. 

[IrishDawg]

I was watching this Texas this morning, and thinking that they will be in the NIT, and was very surprised to see them included on any NCAA bracket list.

Texas is projected to be 8-10 in the toughest league in the NCAA, and against the 7th toughest schedule in the nation.  They have wins over Butler, Texas Tech, Alabama, TCU and two over Oklahoma.  Now I know that outside of their Texas Tech win that none of the other teams have a spectacular league record, but all of those teams have a better Kenpom rating than Loyola does.  They have zero bad losses.  Loyola has a good away win over Florida, but they also have a loss to Milwaukee and a home loss to Indiana State hurting them.

I'm not saying it's fair, but realistically Loyola doesn't get in without winning the conference tourney.  Illinois State didn't last year, and basically had the same resume as Loyola does this year, without the Indiana State level home loss.

This is an even stronger argument for mid-major leagues to want to move away from the RPI and simply go to a straight up analytics-based ranking system, and at-large teams are simply chosen based on who has the highest ranking in that system once the league champs are in.  For example, Nevada has a kenpom rating of 17, and would be safely in under that system.  However, under the current system, while they might still get in (wins against URI and Boise State twice) without winning the conference tourney, they likely wouldn't get the seed line they deserve under either circumstance.  Under this system, it wouldn't even matter if the big boys wouldn't schedule you.  If you prove yourself to a certain level against your schedule, you get in, and are seeded according.  Now, that might make selection Sunday a little boring, but honestly, to get the best at-large teams in the field, this is a much better way than the current system.

[talksalot]

Hey nothing is as expected this year... Today:  Vandy beat Florida and Baylor beat Texas Tech... and Valpo beat Bradley

[wh]

Father Harry dropping truth and going in hard on Joe Lunardi and P5 bias:

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/964614987896455174

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/964616012715954178

Father Harry forgot to take into account that Loyola's non-conference SOS is 279. They disqualified themselves from at-large consideration the day their schedule was published.

[VU2014]

I kind of feel for LU though because they had a 2-for-1 with NC State but once Keats took over the job he just bought out the away game at Loyola. That really hurt LU before the season even started. They had a very good win over a up-&-down Florida team in their own building. Unfortunately it might not be enough for Loyola, because they had a overall weak OOC schedule and got blown out by Boise State (Custer didn't play that game but the committee won't be giving a mid-major the benefit of the doubt).

I think Loyola pretty much needs to win Arch Madness to get in now, because they've lost too many Conference games (Bradley, ISUb, MSU). I could see a scenario where they are part of one of the "first 4 out," depending on how Conference Tournaments shake out.

[justducky]

ISU-red was left out (2017) with 7 losses (NIT included). Loyola now has 5 with trips to SIU, Evansville and home with the redbirds still remaining. Should they win out then lose late in the tournament to another top MVC foe it will be very difficult for the selection committee to keep them out.

Unfortunately every last in coin toss ends up tails for the mid major.

[VUGrad1314]

Actually it may not be. Illinois State had an RPI of 33 against an SOS of 124 Loyola presently has an RPI of 49 against an SOS of 154. ISUr had six losses after Arch Madness against 27 wins.Loyola would also be 27-6 if they won out until the Finals of Arch Madness. Illinois State's worst losses were @Tulsa and @Murray State similar to Loyola's losses @Milwaukee and Vs Indiana State.  Illinois State got blown out twice by Wichita State and lacked a signature non-conference win (best win was home against the Shockers) Loyola has a signature non-conference win @Florida but was also blown out in Boise. But they do have a win over a likely conference champion in Wright State. They also need to factor in Custer's injury which covers the Milwaukee and ISUb losses I think. (I've heard they will pay more attention to injuries as a factor). What may save them is the collective strength of the MVC this year. We've gone from 12th in RPI to 8th with 3 top 100 teams. (The MVC had only two last year with the third highest RPI being Southern Illinois at 145.) Last year the MVC had 6 sub 180 RPI teams 4 under 200 and 1 under 300. This year the LOWEST RPI in the conference is 185 with 7 teams ABOVE 150. That's a HUGE jump. Loyola still has 3 top 125 opponents left, two on the road, and they'll very possibly get 3 more in the MVC tournament. If they win 5 of those they'll see a big bump in their metrics especially if their loss is a narrow one to anybody in the top 4-5. I think an at-large is in play for Loyola but the argument against them is (unfortunately) easy enough to make depending upon how the P5 bubble teams do in their tournaments. Further complicating matters is teams like theGonzaga\St Mary's loser New Mexico State (if they don't win the WAC tournament) St. Bonaventure (who has a strong non-con resume and a win over Rhode Island) URI if they don't win the A-10 tourney and Boise State and Nevada who are a combined 4-0 vs the top 3 of the MVC. Although our conference is stronger as a whole than the Mountain West their top teams clearly bested our top teams giving them a big edge in the at-large pecking order unless the Broncos really stumble down the stretch. Loyola needs to be nearly perfect down the stretch and get a little help in order to be in the at-large conversation.

[VULB#62]

Quite a thoughtful look at where the MVC stands. Have you shared this with MVCFANS ?

[VUGrad1314]

I haven't yet but I might.

[bigmosmithfan1]

Lunardi's job is to predict what the committee will do, not offer what he thinks it *should* do (though you could make the argument that he's giving the committee an easy out by reinforcing their past bias in favor of the P5).

That said, he's gone on record this year commenting that the committee has trended too far in over-valuing strength of schedule. He said the pendulum has gone too far where it's now devaluing winning, to the benefit of the haves and detriment of midmajors. So he's the wrong tree to bark up on this one.

I don't give a fat crap about Loyola's non-conference SOS, particularly when one of the P5 teams they are competing with for a spot on the bubble chickened out of a scheduled game at Gentile Arena at the last minute. If their schedule made them a weak team, then NC State should have been *itching* to play them for an easy record-padding W.

The Ramblers would run any of those P5 mediocrities out of the gym, and that's a FACT. (And that's also why the committee doesn't want them in the tournament -- can't have the brand names getting beat. It's bad for business).

[VUGrad1314]

I hope the committee brings up NCST's cowardice when debating them vs. Loyola. The at-large phase is all about getting the best teams right? Well what does it say when one bubble team is afraid to go on the road to play another in a lower but still strong  conference and backs out of the game to protect its own resume while denying the other team a critical opportunity? I know what it says, and I hope the committee does too. #SendTheRightMessage #RamblersOverWolfpack.

[justducky]

I hope the committee brings up NCST's cowardice when debating them vs. Loyola. The at-large phase is all about getting the best teams right? Well what does it say when one bubble team is afraid to go on the road to play another in a lower but still strong  conference and backs out of the game to protect its own resume while denying the other team a critical opportunity? I know what it says, and I hope the committee does too. #SendTheRightMessage #RamblersOverWolfpack.

I am pretty sure that Loyola will lay an egg and end up with another regular season loss. BUT lets say they don't and maybe they end up with a bubble RPI of say 36 and NCS lands alongside at 44. Now we know what we would do but what would the geniuses on the selection committee do? Would this be the last straw that opened up a total revolt?

[VUGrad1314]

I don't know how much more the mid majors will be able to stand after Murray State Monmouth Valpo Illinois State and Loyola (or some comparable team) all get monumentally snubbed in a span of four years.

Oh also:
NCST: 0-1 vs UNI
Loyola: 2-0 vs UNI

So give the common opponents edge to the Ramblers as well, #RamblersOverWolfpack

[valpo95]

I've said this elsewhere, yet one simple change would help all mid-majors:

To get an at large bid, any team must finish with either a) A winning record in their conference season. b) Make (not necessarily win) their conference tournament game. If a team can't finish in the top half of their conference, or be playing well enough to make their championship game, they shouldn't play in the NCAA tournament.

By the way, right now Lunardi is projecting 10 ACC teams, 8 SEC teams, and 8 Big12 teams. There is no way 66% of the teams from those three conferences should make the tournament.

[M]

I wonder how many teams who finished in the bottom half of their league yet earned an at large bid have made the elite 8, final four, been a champion.