MVC Hoops: 2017-18

[wh]

A Tale of Two Leagues:

32 Loyola-Chicago
87 Illinois State
91 Southern Illinois
106 Wright State
107 N. Kentucky
114 Bradley
133 Missouri State
138 Evansville
141 Northern Iowa
159 Drake
172 Indiana State
177 Valparaiso
179 Oakland
234Milwaukee
236 UIC
289 IUPUI
306 Detroit
309 Green Bay
311 Cleveland State
319 Youngstown State

A few things come to mind:
• If still in the HL, Valpo would be 1 of the front runners in the chase for a tournament championship. (Just an observation about the dramatic difference in quality of the 2 leagues - zero interest in returning)
• 5 of 10 HL teams are among the 100 worst RPI's in D-1, which means they won't be considered as potential MVC opponents next year. (Could be 6 of 10 if UIC goes 0-1 in the HL tournament.)
• Valpo has a better RPI than 6 of 12 OVC teams, and better than 4 of 6 in Murray State's Division.
• There are tons of easy wins in both the HL and OVC. There are no easy wins in the MVC - zero.

[valpo64]

Thanks for the post wh...well put and a great observation of analysing the 2 leagues.

[VULB#62]

WH, you got my curiosity up about the OVC, so I added them to your list in red.

A Tale of Two Leagues:

32 Loyola-Chicago
67 Murray State
76 Belmont
87 Illinois State
91 Southern Illinois
106 Wright State
107 N. Kentucky
114 Bradley
133 Missouri State
138 Evansville
141 Northern Iowa
159 Drake
159 Tenn Tech
170 Austin Peay
171 J'Ville State
172 Indiana State
175 Tenn State
177 Valparaiso
179 Oakland
234 Milwaukee
236 UIC
253 SE MO State
262 Eastern Illinois
270 Eastern KY
282 SIU-E
288 Morehead State
289 IUPUI
306 Detroit
308 Tenn- Martin
309 Green Bay
311 Cleveland State
319 Youngstown State

A few things come to mind:
• If still in the HL, Valpo would be 1 of the front runners in the chase for a tournament championship. (Just an observation about the dramatic difference in quality of the 2 leagues - zero interest in returning)
• 5 of 10 HL teams are among the 100 worst RPI's in D-1, which means they won't be considered as potential MVC opponents next year. (Could be 6 of 10 if UIC goes 0-1 in the HL tournament.)
• Valpo has a better RPI than 6 of 12 OVC teams, and better than 4 of 6 in Murray State's Division.
• There are tons of easy wins in both the HL and OVC. There are no easy wins in the MVC - zero.

About easy wins to prove your point:  Valpo plays seven (7) MVC teams that are in the RPI Top 150 ---- TWICE.  In the OVC, the two leaders are the only ones in the RPI Top 150 - basically 2 games.  The 2 HL leaders also have only themselves to play in the RPI Top 150.

[bigmosmithfan1]

It became clear in early January that the HL in its current state offered us a lot more cushion and margin for error than the MVC ever will. And that's a good thing (although bad for us right now). No off nights in the Valley, and if you have one, expect to get beat. Think about how many times we were able to dig ourselves out of a hole in an HL game the past few years when we didn't bring our A game... yeah, we can't plan on doing that very often now.

Time to rise to the challenge.

[VU2014]

The Horizon League is historically bad this season and has fallen off a cliff. The Horizon League was 19th in RPI last season and now it's either the 27th or 28th. I think part of it has to do with replacing Valpo with IUPUI but also some HL teams are having a absolutely brutal year.

The MVC is top to bottom just a better league and has better coaches and better athletes. There are no "cupcake" games in the MVC. Even Valpo who is the last place team this season took Loyola a Top 30 team down to the wire in their own building.

[covufan]

A Tale of Two Leagues:

The former Mid-Con, now Summit League might be another comparison.  The SL has upped their game after we left.

There are tons of easy wins in both the HL and OVC. There are no easy wins in the MVC - zero.

As we humbly found out this year.

[VUGrad1314]

We went 6-4 against the #2-6 teams in the MVC. We went 0-6 against 7-9. Much of that is skewed by how badly Northern Iowa and Missouri State tanked it in conference play. The additional top 150 opportunities this league can provide will help immensely. I can't help but marvel at how solid this league is and how much more solid it can get with Murray State and another solid program in the fold. This is what I meant when I told people in terms of relative strength increase this move to the MVC is as significant for us coming from the Horizon as moving up to the AAC was for the Shockers.

[crusadermoe]

That's an excellent catch.   

Other than Loyola, we can beat anyone on any given night.   Illinois State would probably be the next tallest task for us.

[wh]

WH, you got my curiosity up about the OVC, so I added them to your list in red.

A Tale of Two Leagues:

32 Loyola-Chicago
67 Murray State
76 Belmont
87 Illinois State
91 Southern Illinois
106 Wright State
107 N. Kentucky
114 Bradley
133 Missouri State
138 Evansville
141 Northern Iowa
159 Drake
159 Tenn Tech
170 Austin Peay
171 J'Ville State
172 Indiana State
175 Tenn State
177 Valparaiso
179 Oakland
234 Milwaukee
236 UIC
253 SE MO State
262 Eastern Illinois
270 Eastern KY
282 SIU-E
288 Morehead State
289 IUPUI
306 Detroit
308 Tenn- Martin
309 Green Bay
311 Cleveland State
319 Youngstown State

A few things come to mind:
• If still in the HL, Valpo would be 1 of the front runners in the chase for a tournament championship. (Just an observation about the dramatic difference in quality of the 2 leagues - zero interest in returning)
• 5 of 10 HL teams are among the 100 worst RPI's in D-1, which means they won't be considered as potential MVC opponents next year. (Could be 6 of 10 if UIC goes 0-1 in the HL tournament.)
• Valpo has a better RPI than 6 of 12 OVC teams, and better than 4 of 6 in Murray State's Division.
• There are tons of easy wins in both the HL and OVC. There are no easy wins in the MVC - zero.

About easy wins to prove your point:  Valpo plays seven (7) MVC teams that are in the RPI Top 150 ---- TWICE.  In the OVC, the two leaders are the only ones in the RPI Top 150 - basically 2 games.  The 2 HL leaders also have only themselves to play in the RPI Top 150.

[VULB#62]

That alone confirms that the choice to go to the MVC was so freaking correct.

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/971012920795688961

A good article about Paul Lusk getting canned at Missouri State. The pressure to win at this level is real. It also just shows how hard it is to restore a struggling program. Missouri State was a really strong program has some strong history in the late 80's and 90's. NCAA Tournament appearances: 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1999 (S16). They've also had some big name coaches but have never been able to fully restore the program back to it's glory days.

Steve Alford (4 seasons, 78-48), 1995–1999, 1 NCAA Sweet 16 Appearance and 1 NIT Appearance
Barry Hinson (9 seasons, 169-117), 1999-2008 4 NIT Appearances (1 NIT Quarterfinal)
Cuonzo Martin (3 seasons, 61-41), 2008–2011 1 CIT Appearance (Champions), 1 NIT appearance (2nd round)
Paul Lusk, (7 seasons, 106-121) 2011–2018 1 CIT Appearance (1st round)

[vu72]

Lusk is a lot like our buddy Greg Kampe.  Able to attract good athletes but not able to coach them.  Could it be the athletes lack character?  Could it be the athletes bring skills that aren't complimentary to others on the team?  Or could it be the coaches just can't coach?

[oklahomamick]

Vu72, you can throw UIC's Steve McClain into that group.

We were in a recruiting battle for some of the same players.  I wonder if those players who chose UIC over Vapo would have produced the same, more, or less if they chose VU? 

[VU2014]

I know I'm going to sound very envious and slightly petty but I'm getting a little annoyed with how much attention Loyola is getting from the chicago sports media. I'm happy for Loyola getting their moment but it annoys me knowing if we won Arch Madness and the MVC we'd hardly get any publicity from the big Chicago news papers and sports talk radio and we are semi part of Chicagoland. There is no chance the Indianapolis media would give us any serious attention because they are too consumed with all things Butler, IU, and Purdue. Chicago sports media really doesn't have anything to talk about or write because we're well into Cubs/Sox spring training and there are no real interesting stories there. The Blackhawks are bad this season and as is the Bulls who are in full tank mode. There are no other Illinois schools in the Tourney so they flock to Loyola this season, which is "good" for the conference but also annoying because they are writing the same story 10 times. It's the look at how good and cute Loyola is puff pieces. Yes I know I'm being slightly petty. Northwest Indiana is a weird spot in the midwest. The NWI considers itself part of the greater Chicagoland but the Chicago media completely doesn't acknowledge it other then for weather updates (yet the NWI accounts for a sizable portion of their viewership/readership) and Indianapolis for the most part doesn't acknowledge as part of Indiana. The "Region" really is a fitting nickname.

[M]

They're the only good team in the whole state and they're in Chicago. Let them have their 15 minutes (or 40 or 80 or however long they stay alive).

[VU2014]

Coach Roger Powell might end up coaching against Valpo in the near future. I think he'd be a slam dunk hire for any midwest mid-major because he can really coach and RECRUIT.

I still wonder sometimes if Mark LaBarbera offered Roger Powell first but chose to head to Nashville with Bryce instead as his top assistant. I don't think the search ever expanded passed Powell, Lottich and Gore. I think that is one of the "perks" of becoming an assistant of a program like Valpo is that we have a track record of hiring from within and ML has publicly stated that in the past. It helps Valpo attract top assistants because if Lottich achieves Bryce Drew level of success he'll get calls for bigger/higher paying jobs one day and our assistants will have a good chance to land the job if they impress.

https://twitter.com/GoodmanESPN/status/972219591140216837

[VU2014]

Coach Powell actually interviewed for the Missouri State job.

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/972521555745017856

[valpotx]

Good for him, as he deserves a shot.  He can really recruit, but I have no idea on his coaching prowess. 

[VU2014]

Good for him, as he deserves a shot.  He can really recruit, but I have no idea on his coaching prowess. 

It makes me nervous with him potentially joining the conference and taking the leading job at conference rival. Powell may run a similar system to VU and will likely be competing for the same recruits in Chicago. Good for him because he does deserve a opportunity but I wouldn't mind if he took a opportunity outside of the MVC.

http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/whos-next-missouri-state/

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/972594277552402432

[EddieCabot]

I know I'm going to sound very envious and slightly petty but I'm getting a little annoyed with how much attention Loyola is getting from the chicago sports media. I'm happy for Loyola getting their moment but it annoys me knowing if we won Arch Madness and the MVC we'd hardly get any publicity from the big Chicago news papers and sports talk radio and we are semi part of Chicagoland. There is no chance the Indianapolis media would give us any serious attention because they are too consumed with all things Butler, IU, and Purdue. Chicago sports media really doesn't have anything to talk about or write because we're well into Cubs/Sox spring training and there are no real interesting stories there. The Blackhawks are bad this season and as is the Bulls who are in full tank mode. There are no other Illinois schools in the Tourney so they flock to Loyola this season, which is "good" for the conference but also annoying because they are writing the same story 10 times. It's the look at how good and cute Loyola is puff pieces. Yes I know I'm being slightly petty. Northwest Indiana is a weird spot in the midwest. The NWI considers itself part of the greater Chicagoland but the Chicago media completely doesn't acknowledge it other then for weather updates (yet the NWI accounts for a sizable portion of their viewership/readership) and Indianapolis for the most part doesn't acknowledge as part of Indiana. The "Region" really is a fitting nickname.

Not jealous or petty at all, IMO.  The lack of attention that Valpo gets from the Chicago, Indianapolis and Fort Wayne media is sad and unfair.

[VUGrad1314]

My thoughts on the MVC right now

We need a stronger top of the conference and better scheduling. Multiple conferences with lower ratings than us are getting multiple bids. The MWC and WCC will get two each the A10 will get three in a terrible year. The MVC had a great renaissance and will still only get one. Here's what needs to happen:

Missouri State needs a better coach and more aggressive scheduling
UNI needs to act like conference play matters and not just show up to play whenever they feel like it
Valpo Bradley Loyola Southern Illinois and Evansville need to schedule better
Illinois State needs to do a better job holding on to the talent they bring in.

EVERYONE needs to keep getting better

We need to drop this defeatist "it's all about Arch Madness" attitude that I have heard WAY TOO MUCH from TOO MANY coaches and administrators who should know better.

Murray State NEEDS to be added. If there is no suitable 12th that's fine. Tell the non revenue sports to deal with it. This is a BASKETBALL conference. BASKETBALL drives the bus.

When is the last time the #8 conference was a one bid league? This shouldn't happen, and we need to work hard to make sure it never happens again.

[a3uge]

My thoughts on the MVC right now

We need a stronger top of the conference and better scheduling. Multiple conferences with lower ratings than us are getting multiple bids. The MWC and WCC will get two each the A10 will get three in a terrible year. The MVC had a great renaissance and will still only get one. Here's what needs to happen:

Missouri State needs a better coach and more aggressive scheduling
UNI needs to act like conference play matters and not just show up to play whenever they feel like it
Valpo Bradley Loyola Southern Illinois and Evansville need to schedule better
Illinois State needs to do a better job holding on to the talent they bring in.

EVERYONE needs to keep getting better

We need to drop this defeatist "it's all about Arch Madness" attitude that I have heard WAY TOO MUCH from TOO MANY coaches and administrators who should know better.

Murray State NEEDS to be added. If there is no suitable 12th that's fine. Tell the non revenue sports to deal with it. This is a BASKETBALL conference. BASKETBALL drives the bus.

When is the last time the #8 conference was a one bid league? This shouldn't happen, and we need to work hard to make sure it never happens again.

How would a tougher schedule by Valpo, Bradley Loyola, Southern Illinois, and Evansville have helped the MVC get to two bids?

If teams in the MVC scheduled harder, they wouldn't be 8th in RPI. The A10 is ranked 11th because they scheduled the 2nd hardest schedule. Harder scheduling means more losses, which means a worse league RPI. Similar to the MVC, the mountain west was 9th in RPI and is only a 1 bid league (sans a loss by their best team in the conf tournament).

Looking at the A10, two teams were top 20 in ooc RPI. One team is in the first four (complete joke) and the other is a 7 seed. Those teams finished with 5, and 3 conference losses (plus a conf tournament loss).

The MVC had ZERO teams with a top 50 ooc RPI. The top RPI team won the conference tournament, so they weren't eligible for an at-large. The #2 team had an RPI of 85. They (Illinois State) were already 11th in ooc sos, and finished 5-6. The 3rd team in RPI finished with an RPI of 100, but only finished with an ooc RPI of 148, with a 7-5 record. I don't see how scheduling harder would have solved anything this year. If Valpo, Bradley, Evansville, etc had a harder schedule, they would all have more losses, and the top of the league would have a worse RPI.

[VUGrad1314]

You've got to think Belmont may be changing it's mind about the MVC now. Wins over Vanderbilt Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee State and Murray State in addition to close losses to Washington and Providence and a 24-9 record still isn't good enough for an NIT at large. I think they may reevaluate their conference situation now.

[VU2014]

Belmont was in a similar position last season where they won the regular season but they lost in the tourney.

I've heard their HOF Coach Byrd talk about a potential conference switch as recently as this summer and was pretty blunt that they are staying put in the OVC. Belmont doesn't seem to have many aspirations to be in a better conference unless it's a obvious multi-bid league. The MVC currently isn't one but it has the best potential out of any of the Mid-Major conferences not named: A10, MWC, and WCC to be one again. There is rumors that Gonzaga is in talks to move to the MWC which would firmly make the WCC a 1-bid conference and St. Mary's would be forced to change their OOC scheduling ways.

I don't think Belmont is leaving the OVC. It sounds like they want to be the big fish in a very tiny pond. They may welcome the thought of Murray State leaving. The only way I see them leaving is if the OVC's future tv rights deal is in a really bad spot and it forces them to look elsewhere.

[VUGrad1314]

Yeah the WCC is heading for perennial 1 bid status. BYU has started that they would enter negotiations to follow Gonzaga out the door. As for Belmont and the OVC when the AD of you strongest historical member and a charter member at that pounds the table as hard as Murray State's AD did  to leave the conference that has to give any TV executive major pause before throwing out any kind of lucrative deal. Then you look at what the conference has left: Belmont the second to fourth fiddle in the Nashville market, Jacksonville State (wants to leave) EKU (Wants to leave) Morehead State (would leave if they could), yeah let's televise those games said no one ever. Most of the people who consume OVC content are probably Murray State fans anyway. I think there's at least a chance Belmont will be looking to increase its national profile. They already do a ton of recruiting in Indiana Illinois and Kentucky so why not play more games in those states? As for Byrd's denial he would have to do so until the move is done anyway. Denial means nothing. Remember this: If Gonzaga can leave the WCC anyone can move. Gonzaga is the ultimate team that has no need to move if it doesn't want to and it's been trying hard for years to get out. Why? Because Gonzaga's fish to pond ratio is so out of whack that the fish that is Gonzaga can't even move it just lays there gasping for air. It's the same for Murray State and Belmont in their even tinier pond.