MVC Hoops: 2017-18

[VUGrad1314]

Here's why that move mattered for the MVC:

The MVC barely edged out the Gonzagaless  MWC in RPI and has struggled in recent years to get at-large bids. As things stand right now, the leagues are roughly comparable. Add Gonzaga to the MWC and the MVC has even less room to breathe in the at-large landscape because the MWC becomes a surefire 2-4 bid league every year. The need for the MVC to act to get better would become even more pressing lest it be left behind and further ignored by the committee.

[VU2014]

Admittedly haven't been paying attn to Gonzaga's drama.  But why should the MVC have been holding its breath?

Maybe if WCC is only a 1 bid league these days and more likely then not Gonzaga will win the WCC auto-bid and it's going to be tough for St. Mary's and BYU to earn a at-large bid in this current era of CBB. If Gonzaga moves the the MWC it's a tougher path through that Conference Tournament and it's likely that Gonzaga will have a very good chance to earn a at-large bid every year as long as Mark Few is the head coach. Maybe it makes a tougher path for other mid-majors to earn a at-large. I don't know.

One benefit of Gonzaga joining the MWC would be them participating in the MWC/MVC challenge if it were re-upped. The chance for MVC teams to host Gonzaga every other season would be a great opportunity.

The most important thing for the MVC is to raise the bottom of the MVC and have everyone be strong at the same time. The lowest ranked Kenpom team was Drake at 155, Valpo at 150, Illinois State 140, and Indiana State at 138. We need more team to be closer to 100 or above. There isn't one perfect metric, but essentially we need to raise the floor of the conference and help the Top teams get quality wins during Conference play. I hate all the new quadrant garbage the committee made because it essentially limits Mid-Majors from ever scheduling a Q1 game and Q2 opponents are still tough to schedule and it's not like Mid-majors will ever be able to play them on a home court. Best case scenario is the MVC teams get into the neutral site tournaments and get 1 or 2 cracks at a Q1/Q2 team on neutral court.

The MVC as whole needs scheduling standards. Coaches should be strictly capped on how many cupcake games they get to schedule. Avoid sub-200 teams if at all possible.

[talksalot]

Coaches should be strictly capped on how many cupcake games they get to schedule. Avoid sub-200 teams if at all possible.

I'll be curious to see how the WCC enforces that "MTE" rule for their coaches.  Valpo was in that Savannah Shootout and wound up with cupcakes on the schedule.  I think the only one we could have avoided was UCRiverside.  Certainly nobody thought Santa Clara would be as bad as they wound up...

and I'm having a little problem with the math that requires all schools to schedule more home games than away on the OOC and a BUY-game has to be approved by the conference.  I'm really interested to see how that works out.  If all of the top-15-RPI conferences did the same thing... we'd run out of schools! 

[VUGrad1314]

All of this sounds like an agreement destined to fail. I still think Gonzaga moves sometime within the next few years.

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/KevinPetschow/status/981571059186053120

8 mid-major basketball teams who could be next season's Loyola-Chicago
Which mid-major could make a magical run to the Final Four next season?
By Sean Keeley on April 4, 2018

http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/loyola-chicago-8-mid-majors-next-final-four.html

[VUGrad1314]

Rumor has it that GCU is coming to Cedar Falls to play UNI. Saw the post on MVCFans.

[IrishDawg]

The most important thing for the MVC is to raise the bottom of the MVC and have everyone be strong at the same time. The lowest ranked Kenpom team was Drake at 155, Valpo at 150, Illinois State 140, and Indiana State at 138. We need more team to be closer to 100 or above. There isn't one perfect metric, but essentially we need to raise the floor of the conference and help the Top teams get quality wins during Conference play. I hate all the new quadrant garbage the committee made because it essentially limits Mid-Majors from ever scheduling a Q1 game and Q2 opponents are still tough to schedule and it's not like Mid-majors will ever be able to play them on a home court. Best case scenario is the MVC teams get into the neutral site tournaments and get 1 or 2 cracks at a Q1/Q2 team on neutral court.

The MVC as whole needs scheduling standards. Coaches should be strictly capped on how many cupcake games they get to schedule. Avoid sub-200 teams if at all possible.

This year was an exceptionally good year for the MVC's bottom, and the league member average as a whole per Kenpom (124.9).  In terms of average ratings for its current members, it's the best average rating as a whole since 2013 (120.4).  Several of the teams performed well above their average Kenpom rating if you look at the last 10 years.  If you throw out the Horizon League years for Loyola and Valpo, teams had an average improvement over their years in the MVC of 22.62 spots, with the majority of that from Loyola (107 spots above their MVC average) and Bradley (73.8 spots above their MVC average).

The reason for that is largely based on the experience of the MVC's teams and/or their continuity of minutes from the previous season.  For example, one team who performed well above their average in Bradley, didn't have a ton of experience (they only lose 1 Sr. off of this year's team that was a significant contributor), they were 26th in minutes continuity (guys who played in 16-17 who are also playing in 17-18).  On the opposite end, there was Illinois State, who had neither experience nor continuity of minutes (rated 265th and 295th respectively) and finished 34 spots below their average kenpom rating over the past 10 years.  The one team that underperformed relative to those ratings and their previous averages was Northern Iowa, who was just above average in experience, top 100 (93rd) in continuity and still was 38.9 spots below their average rating over the past 10 years.

Expecting the teams at the bottom of the league to remain this high I think is unrealistic, as the league members over the past 10 years have never had a season where the lowest rated teams were close to this high (previous best was 2013 where the lowest rated teams were 177th and 212th).  Heck, even if you look at the major conferences, only the Big 12 (103rd), Big East (99th), SEC (108th), and Big Ten (130th) had bottoms of the league that were better than the MVC.  Even the ACC (227th) and Pac-12 (244th) were worse.  The good news is that while I expect teams like Drake and Missouri State to take a big step back next year, teams like Bradley and Illinois State should be able to make up for it based on everything they have coming back.

[VUGrad1314]

Don't forget  Southern Illinois. If healthy they should be very good. Also I'm not sure Missouri State will fall as far as many think. I expect Loyola to remain about the same with slight regression and improvement from Indiana State and Valpo. As for Evansville I'm taking a wait and see approach while Drake probably regresses.

[VUGrad1314]

Good article on the future of the MVC.

http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/why-the-valleys-best-days-are-ahead/

[SanityLost17]

Good article on the future of the MVC.

http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/why-the-valleys-best-days-are-ahead/

I still think McMillan is a year away and will shine bright as a junior.   He needs to come off the bench as a sophomore.   We are a solid stretch 4 grad transfer starter away from being a very competitive team next season.

[FieldGoodie05]

Good article on the future of the MVC.

http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/why-the-valleys-best-days-are-ahead/

I still think McMillan is a year away and will shine bright as a junior.   He needs to come off the bench as a sophomore.   We are a solid stretch 4 grad transfer starter away from being a very competitive team next season.

100% agree, but Loyola seemed to get away with a 6'5" or 6'6" athletic SF guarding the PF slot.  Because we still have Fazekas, Mileek and Linssen to take 25 mpg we could also consider an athletic SF type like was Burton.

I'm more inclined to take a SF because we already have heavy PF investment in Linssen and Mileek.

[VU2014]

I was listening to the Loyola AD on the radio on my commute to work this morning and he had some interesting things to say:
-They are working on an extension for Moser (other schools have reached out to Moser to gauge interest (I'm presuming no P6 schools))
-Loyola plans on throwing their whole weight behind the program after this F4 run in terms of infrastructure and support. (I'm so jealous as a Valpo fan to hear that. That is almost unthinkable to ever hear someone like President Heckler making a statement or proclamation like that.)

-The Loyola AD said going forward Loyola is not comparing itself to other teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. He said they are comparing themselves to schools like Butler, VCU and Wichita State. Some very interesting statements... Makes you think if they have aspirations beyond being in the MVC. Comments like that will tick some other MVC fans off.

-Loyola is confirmed to be playing Nevada at Gentile in the MVC/MWC Challenge. Loyola is in the works to be in one the Bahamas Neutral site Tournaments.  The are really trying to schedule the best teams possible next season.

[IrishDawg]

I was listening to the Loyola AD on the radio on my commute to work this morning and he had some interesting things to say:
-They are working on an extension for Moser (other schools have reached out to Moser to gauge interest (I'm presuming no P6 schools))
-Loyola plans on throwing their whole weight behind the program after this F4 run in terms of infrastructure and support. (I'm so jealous as a Valpo fan to hear that. That is almost unthinkable to ever hear someone like President Heckler making a statement or proclamation like that.)

-The Loyola AD said going forward Loyola is not comparing itself to other teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. He said they are comparing themselves to schools like Butler, VCU and Wichita State. Some very interesting statements... Makes you think if they have aspirations beyond being in the MVC. Comments like that will tick some other MVC fans off.

-Loyola is confirmed to be playing Nevada at Gentile in the MVC/MWC Challenge. Loyola is in the works to be in one the Bahamas Neutral site Tournaments.  The are really trying to schedule the best teams possible next season.

Next year Loyola should have a good team as well, but it'll be interesting to see where they go beyond that.  The difference between those schools that he mentioned and Loyola is the consistency of success before their Final 4 runs.  I think it's great that they feel this way, but I do think their situation is unlike any of the schools that he mentions.  They literally hadn't made a tournament in 35 years, and while they were certainly a solid team last year, this run literally came out of nowhere.  Even George Mason had made a couple of tournament appearances within a few years of their Final 4 run.

I wouldn't take this talk too personally as a member of the MVC.  This is how every smaller program feels once they make a run like this.  The one thing they do have going for them is that their endowment is absolutely big enough to throw behind the program and go places.

[NativeCheesehead]

1. Agreed on the jealousy. Again, Valpo's admin has talked the talk, but as yet, not a whole lotta walk. Comments like this from the Loyola AD coming AFTER seeking out and finding the funding for a new practice facility really put the two together.

2. Correct, consistency is the next step to really elevating your program. Butler did it. GM and VCU, not so much. LU will have a target on their backs next year.

[vu72]

I was listening to the Loyola AD on the radio on my commute to work this morning and he had some interesting things to say:
-They are working on an extension for Moser (other schools have reached out to Moser to gauge interest (I'm presuming no P6 schools))
-Loyola plans on throwing their whole weight behind the program after this F4 run in terms of infrastructure and support. (I'm so jealous as a Valpo fan to hear that. That is almost unthinkable to ever hear someone like President Heckler making a statement or proclamation like that.)

-The Loyola AD said going forward Loyola is not comparing itself to other teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. He said they are comparing themselves to schools like Butler, VCU and Wichita State. Some very interesting statements... Makes you think if they have aspirations beyond being in the MVC. Comments like that will tick some other MVC fans off.

-Loyola is confirmed to be playing Nevada at Gentile in the MVC/MWC Challenge. Loyola is in the works to be in one the Bahamas Neutral site Tournaments.  The are really trying to schedule the best teams possible next season.

Of course they feel that way.  They have had one year in a row of great success! 

[VUGrad1314]

I don't know why VCU made that shortlist. They're already pretty much there in terms of conference prestige and tournament success.   Maybe they're signalling to the A10 or AAC that they're interested if a spot should open up. If UCONN ever finds its way to the Big East Loyola could be part of the chain of moves. It is critical that the MVC stay ahead of the A10 and at least get close to the AAC to stave off further poaching of the league.

[bigmosmithfan1]

Look, let it be said up front that I *LOVE* the comments from the Loyola AD. That is exactly how a program should be thinking after a Final Four run -- how to best capitalize on that momentum, and sustain that level of national success moving forward. I didn't read it as "we're too good for the Valley" or any of that nonsense. More of "the bar has been raised higher than conference championships as a result of this, and we recognize that."

If VU had that level of foresight after the Sweet 16 run, where could we be right now?

All that said, right now, they are way more analagous to George Mason than Butler, VCU or Wichita -- three programs that had some sustained success and regular tournament appearances and at-large bids prior to their Final 4 run. Mason didn't go to the postseason the year prior to their run and hadn't been to the tourney in 5 years (where they were a 14 seed). That's not a knock on Loyola -- far from it, actually! Just that it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

One thing that a Final Four run will do: it WILL get easier for Loyola to schedule in the non-conference for the next few years, at minimum. That has been an across-the-board outcome for every mid-major that's made it to the Final Four. The cachet that comes along with that makes it far less likely for P6's and other good teams will duck you, because the "no upside for us" has been taken out of the equation, as well as a good chunk of the downside. If you lose, hey, you lost to a team that just went to the Final Four (and beat the ACC, SEC and Big 12 along the way)! If you win, hey, you just beat a Final Four program! It changes the narrative around your scheduling completely.

[EddieCabot]

I was listening to the Loyola AD on the radio on my commute to work this morning and he had some interesting things to say:
-They are working on an extension for Moser (other schools have reached out to Moser to gauge interest (I'm presuming no P6 schools))
-Loyola plans on throwing their whole weight behind the program after this F4 run in terms of infrastructure and support. (I'm so jealous as a Valpo fan to hear that. That is almost unthinkable to ever hear someone like President Heckler making a statement or proclamation like that.)

-The Loyola AD said going forward Loyola is not comparing itself to other teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. He said they are comparing themselves to schools like Butler, VCU and Wichita State. Some very interesting statements... Makes you think if they have aspirations beyond being in the MVC. Comments like that will tick some other MVC fans off.

-Loyola is confirmed to be playing Nevada at Gentile in the MVC/MWC Challenge. Loyola is in the works to be in one the Bahamas Neutral site Tournaments.  The are really trying to schedule the best teams possible next season.

Of course they feel that way.  They have had one year in a row of great success! 

Agreed.  Pathetic when a program gets all arrogant after just one lucky run in the NCAA tourney.  I know they've now made 3 sweet 16s and 2 Final Fours, but that was spread over 55 years.  They've not had the sustained excellence that Valpo has displayed in recent years.

[FieldGoodie05]

I was listening to the Loyola AD on the radio on my commute to work this morning and he had some interesting things to say:
-They are working on an extension for Moser (other schools have reached out to Moser to gauge interest (I'm presuming no P6 schools))
-Loyola plans on throwing their whole weight behind the program after this F4 run in terms of infrastructure and support. (I'm so jealous as a Valpo fan to hear that. That is almost unthinkable to ever hear someone like President Heckler making a statement or proclamation like that.)

-The Loyola AD said going forward Loyola is not comparing itself to other teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. He said they are comparing themselves to schools like Butler, VCU and Wichita State. Some very interesting statements... Makes you think if they have aspirations beyond being in the MVC. Comments like that will tick some other MVC fans off.

-Loyola is confirmed to be playing Nevada at Gentile in the MVC/MWC Challenge. Loyola is in the works to be in one the Bahamas Neutral site Tournaments.  The are really trying to schedule the best teams possible next season.

Of course they feel that way.  They have had one year in a row of great success! 

Agreed.  Pathetic when a program gets all arrogant after just one lucky run in the NCAA tourney.  I know they've now made 3 sweet 16s and 2 Final Fours, but that was spread over 55 years.  They've not had the sustained excellence that Valpo has displayed in recent years.

We need to guard against that very thing.  It's been 20-years since "Bruce". 

Though we have had tournament appearances, those aren't the runs that get us noticed nationally.

Our names being in the brackets often must have paid some dividends as to get us into the HL then MVC.

[VUGrad1314]

I long for this program to prove to the nation that it is more than "the shot." I think we will soon. The MVC is the perfect league to do it from.

[valpo64]

Relax Loyola people...one year doth not maketh a National power and program.  We are all happy for LU's success, but before all the talk about the greatest coach and program, let's see what happens over the next year or 2.  Remember George Mason, or VCU?  Let's face it not everybody even remembers Valpo as a big time program after our Sweet 16 run.  I will let my judgement wait for a year or 2.  Afterall it was only a year or two ago that the Loyola people were clammering for a coaching change...now he is one of the top guys in the Country???

[SanityLost17]

I am curious how the top 7 conferences in college basketball treat Loyola going forward as far as scheduling.   

Does a Final 4 for Loyola: 

A:  Make it ok to schedule them for Home and Aways due to the fact a loss to them not hurting so bad.   

B:  Will they be shut out completely in attempt to suppress a future potential yearly at-large bid stealer.   

C:  Somewhere in-between     

[VU2014]

I am curious how the top 7 conferences in college basketball treat Loyola going forward as far as scheduling.   

Does a Final 4 for Loyola: 

A:  Make it ok to schedule them for Home and Aways due to the fact a loss to them not hurting so bad.   

B:  Will they be shut out completely in attempt to suppress a future potential yearly at-large bid stealer.   

C:  Somewhere in-between     

If we look at Wichita State from 2013-2017 (post Final 4) they landed some nice Home-&-Homes. They didn't get any of the perennial powerhouses to schedule them but they had series with Alabama, SLU, Tulsa, Seaton Hall, Utah, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Another big thing was they got into some great neutral site tournaments post Final 4. Wichita State has some serious $ backing their program that will likely far exceed what Loyola can afford to do.

[VUGrad1314]

I wouldn't be so quick to sell Loyola short from a financial standpoint. They may not have Koch money but their endowment is massive and they have numerous alumni with deep pockets.

[VUGrad1314]

Word from MVCFans has it that former Drake commit Messiah Jones is visiting Bradley this week. Not sure why we aren't in on him.