Valparaiso 2017-18 Over/Unders

[Pgmado]

* Little bit of a late start on this, but here are some interesting Over/Unders for the 2017-18 season. I pulled some of these numbers out of thin air, but I think it will be interesting to see what people think about these. Should any of the numbers move drastically? Post your predictions.

2017-18 Valparaiso O/U

1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg (originally was 6.5)
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT
4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg (originally was 1.5)
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg

13. Wins -- 19.5
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5
15. MVC finish -- 3.5
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000
20. More assists or turnovers?

[bbtds]

* Little bit of a late start on this, but here are some interesting Over/Unders for the 2017-18 season. I pulled some of these numbers out of thin air, but I think it will be interesting to see what people think about these. Should any of the numbers move drastically? Post your predictions.

2017-18 Valparaiso O/U

1. Parker Hazen -- 6.5 rpg
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT
4. Max Joseph -- 1.5 orpg
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg

13. Wins -- 19.5
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5
15. MVC finish -- 3.5
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000
20. More assists or turnovers?

So don't post your OVER/UNDER predictions yet because the numbers may be tweaked a bit? Is that correct?

You just want feedback on the numbers at this time? Correct?

[Pgmado]

So don't post your OVER/UNDER predictions yet because the numbers may be tweaked a bit? Is that correct?

You just want feedback on the numbers at this time? Correct?

I think the numbers are pretty safe at the moment. Does anything jump out as egregiously wrong?

[78crusader]

* Little bit of a late start on this, but here are some interesting Over/Unders for the 2017-18 season. I pulled some of these numbers out of thin air, but I think it will be interesting to see what people think about these. Should any of the numbers move drastically? Post your predictions.

2017-18 Valparaiso O/U

1. Parker Hazen -- 6.5 rpg   UNDER
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG OVER
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT OVER
4. Max Joseph -- 1.5 orpg  OVER
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg  UNDER
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks OVER
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg UNDER
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg UNDER
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG UNDER
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks UNDER
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg UNDER
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg UNDER

13. Wins -- 19.5 UNDER
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5 UNDER
15. MVC finish -- 3.5 UNDER
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5 UNDER
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5 OVER
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5 OVER
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000 UNDER
20. More assists or turnovers? ASSISTS

[bbtds]

So don't post your OVER/UNDER predictions yet because the numbers may be tweaked a bit? Is that correct?

You just want feedback on the numbers at this time? Correct?

I think the numbers are pretty safe at the moment. Does anything jump out as egregiously wrong?

30 blocks (Smits) and 30 dunks (Golder) seem fairly high to me but I could be wrong. I guess those numbers are not outrageous.

[Pgmado]

Changed two of the numbers.

We're posting this on NWI.com tomorrow and people can email me their answers until Wednesday (first D1 game) at pgmado@gmail.com. I'll track everyone's answers throughout the year and the winner will get a guest spot on Union Street Hoops at the end of the season.

[M]

 Fun game here, thanks for doing it. 

2017-18 Valparaiso O/U

1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg (originally was 6.5) under
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG. Over
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT under
4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg (originally was 1.5) under
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg. Under
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks under
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg under
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg under
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG over
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks under
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg under
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg under

13. Wins -- 19.5 over
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5 over
15. MVC finish -- 3.5 over
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5 over
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5 over
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5 under
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000 over
20. More assists or turnovers?  Turnovers

[talksalot]

1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg (originally was 6.5) - UNDER
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG - UNDER
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT - OVER
4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg (originally was 1.5)  OVER
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg - OVER
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks - OVER
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg - UNDER
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg - PUSH
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG - OVER
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks - UNDER
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg - UNDER
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg - OVER

13. Wins -- 19.5  OVER
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5  OVER
15. MVC finish -- 3.5  OVER
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5 UNDER
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5 OVER
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5  UNDER
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000   UNDER
20. More assists or turnovers?  - ASSISTS

[VU2014]

These are some tough over/unders to predict because we still don't have a sense for how Coach Lottich will use many of the new guys. Particularly at the PF position.

2017-18 Valparaiso O/U

1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg (originally was 6.5) UNDER (have him pegged for between 4.5-5 per game)
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG UNDER (hopefully I'm wrong)
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT UNDER
4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg (originally was 1.5) OVER
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg UNDER
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks OVER
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg UNDER
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg UNDER (may have been a mistake not to RS him if he averages under 8.5min)
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG OVER
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks UNDER
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg UNDER
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg UNDER

13. Wins -- 19.5 OVER
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5 OVER
15. MVC finish -- 3.5 UNDER
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5 OVER (I think this team will play in the CIT or CBI)
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5 OVER
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5 OVER
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000 OVER
20. More assists or turnovers? ASSISTS

[VU2014]

I recommend giving it a read. There are some very interesting nuggets of info in the O/U article.

PS: I'm a fan of these over/unders.
[tweet]929831326865412096[/tweet]

http://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/inside-vu-sports/the-times-paul-oren-sets-over-unders-for-the-/collection_d980987a-019a-5e01-bf9e-1b9a9d7f4f0c.html?utm_content=buffere6f1f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=LEEDCC#20

The one that surprised me was the attendance:

"Average home attendance -- 3,000"

"Valparaiso averaged more than 3,500 fans per home game in 2015-16 when the Crusaders made it all the way to the NIT championship. Last season, that average fell to 3,086. Without a marquee non-conference home opponent, but a considerably better conference home slate, will the Crusaders crack 3,000 fans per game this year?"

What caused that drop in average attendance by 500? What was the significant change? I know Bryce left but we were still a very good team and it was pretty amazing how well we preformed given all the adversity that team faced? I'm not sure if the 2015-2016 averages include the NIT games, which had huge attendances for all of those games.

[M]

I wonder if those NIT home games counted towards the attendance figures and that is what caused the drop to be so significant.

[covufan]

2017-18 Valparaiso O/U
1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg (originally was 6.5) Under
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG Over
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT Over
4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg (originally was 1.5) Under
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg Under
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks Over
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg Under
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg Over
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG Over
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks Over
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg Under
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg Under
13. Wins -- 19.5 Over
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5 Over
15. MVC finish -- 3.5 Under, Top 3
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5 Over
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5 Over
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5 Under
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000 Over
20. More assists or turnovers? Assists, but not by much

[VU2014]

Send you over/unders to Paul at  pgmado@gmail.com

http://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/inside-vu-sports/the-times-paul-oren-sets-over-unders-for-the-/collection_d980987a-019a-5e01-bf9e-1b9a9d7f4f0c.html#2

https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/930159948851482624

[vu84v2]

2017-18 Valparaiso O/U

1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg (originally was 6.5) UNDER
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG  OVER
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT  UNDER
4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg (originally was 1.5) UNDER
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg  UNDER
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks  UNDER
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 pig  UNDER
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg  OVER
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG  UNDER
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks UNDER
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg UNDER
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg  OVER
13. Wins -- 19.5 UNDER
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5 UNDER
15. MVC finish -- 3.5  OVER - will finish between 4th and 6th
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5 OVER
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5  OVER
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5  OVER
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000  OVER (if they measure it honestly, it would be under given the awful non-conference home schedule)
20. More assists or turnovers? TURNOVERS - but close

[zvillehaze]

Here are my completely uninformed guesses. 

2017-18 Valparaiso O/U

1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg (originally was 6.5) - UNDER
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG - OVER
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT - UNDER
4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg (originally was 1.5) - UNDER
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg - UNDER
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks - OVER
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg - UNDER
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg - UNDER
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG - OVER
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks - OVER
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg - UNDER
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg - OVER

13. Wins -- 19.5 - OVER
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5 - UNDER
15. MVC finish -- 3.5 - OVER (3RD OR BETTER)
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5 - OVER
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5 - OVER
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5 - UNDER
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000 - OVER
20. More assists or turnovers? - ASSISTS; (TIEBREAKER OF +25 ASSISTS)

[M]

I thought this started with Wednesday's game? Why is Paul tweeting out that Golder has 2 of his 30 dunks so far??

[VUCPB alum]

Based on how the Trinity game is going right now and just because this is for fun "Over/Under Golder will have more blocks than Smits at the end of the season"

[justducky]

I am a little late but I think a 21'st question might be appropriate. Tonight against Trinity the trio of Hazen, Linssen and McMillan played a total of 53 minutes.

21. For the season will the combined total game minutes for Hazen, Linssen and McMillan average 20 minutes per game? I will guess that it will be UNDER but maybe not by much.

[M]

I'm not very good at these gambles, but that's be an easy over for me.

[bbtds]

1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg  - UNDER
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3FG %UNDER
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT - OVER
4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg - UNDER
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg - OVER
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks - OVER
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg - UNDER
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg - OVER
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG - UNDER
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks - UNDER
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg - UNDER
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg - UNDER
13. Wins -- 19.5 - OVER
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5 - OVER
15. MVC finish -- 3.5 - UNDER (4th or lower)
16. Postseason victories  -- 0.5 - UNDER
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5 - OVER
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5 - OVER
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000 - OVER
20. More assists or turnovers? - ASSISTS  +10 assists

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/930885098295177216

http://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/inside-vu-sports/the-times-paul-oren-sets-over-unders-for-the-/collection_d980987a-019a-5e01-bf9e-1b9a9d7f4f0c.html#anchor_item_3

[Pgmado]

I thought this started with Wednesday's game? Why is Paul tweeting out that Golder has 2 of his 30 dunks so far??

The non-D1 games count for stats, but I figured I'd give people the first two games as a barometer. Yes, Golder has four dunks so far, but do we really think he'll continue to throw down two a game against D1 competition?

[VU2014]

Reviewing Paul's O/U so far after a 6 game sample size:

2017-18 Valparaiso O/U

1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg (originally was 6.5) - UNDER Only 1.5 reb per game so far. He's still adjusting to the College game but he's shown glimpses. He's only averaging 12.5 minutes per game so far. 10 min both of the last couple games.

2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG - He's making exactly 33.33% of his 3 pointers He seems seems to be streaky sometimes but he isn't afraid to jack up shots. I know Micah is the type player that you want to be aggressive but some of his 3 point attempts seem to be questionable shot selection. He shoots 3's from WAY downtown (sometime 2 feet behind the arc). But as the saying goes "shooters shoot".

3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT - UNDER He's shot 79.3% (3.8-4.8)

4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg (originally was 1.5) - UNDER ORB: 1.0 DRB: 3.2 TRB: 4.2

5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg - UNDER Averaging 4.2 assists per game but he has had 2 games with 7 assists against SIUE & Kent State

6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks - I lost track of how many he's had but he has to have around 7-8 right now

7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg - UNDER he has averaged 11.5 ppg through 4 games. 3rd leading scorer behind Tevonn (16.2) & Markus (12.2), but he had 18 points against sela and 16 points against samford. He struggled last night with only 5 pts but he hit the BIG 3 to win the game. He's shooting a strong 37.5% from 3 this season so far.

8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg - OVER After last nights game he is averaging 12.5 minutes per game. Last night was really a break through for him and he was instrumental in that game by stepping up when Jay and Derrik got into foul trouble early.

9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG - OVER he has a 54.5 FG% through 4 games averaging 12.5 min per game. He's had trouble finding his groove those 4 games. He's got into foul trouble early and Smits has taken advantage some days with being the hot hand and earning more minutes.

10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks - UNDER 1 block so far that came against Trinity according to ESPN stats

11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg - UNDER he's averaging 2.0 rebounds per game while averaging 12 minutes per game. He really showed glimpses of his potential during the Samford game. He's still looks green on the court but he looks to have a bright future.

12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg - OVER averaging 17.2 minutes per game. He is proving to be a steadying key bench player in the early going. He's given us some valuable minutes. A very reliable defensive player that Coach Lottich can bring off the bench.

13. Wins -- 19.5 - TBD currently 6-0 and still undefeated

14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5 - TBD

15. MVC finish -- 3.5 TBD we're currently ranked 2nd in the Conf by kenpom 1 spot behind Loyola.
RPI Rank: (Not the best indicator at this point)
1. Bradley 32
2. Valpo 53
3. UNI 59
4. Drake 60
5. E-ville 82
6. IL St 93
7. IN St 105
8. MO St 114
9. SIU 122
10. Loyola 152

Kenpom:
https://twitter.com/Tmelton8/status/934412556705370112

16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5 -TBD

17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5 - TBD

18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5 - TBD currently on a 6-0 win streak to start the season. The schedule gets much tougher in the month of December with Purdue, Northwestern, and Ball State all on the road, on top of the long Cali road trip.

19. Average home attendance -- 3,000 - TBD average attendance so far is 2,535
North Park (friday): 2682
Trinity (monday): 2545
SELA (sunday): 2651
Samford (tuesday): 2259

20. More assists or turnovers? Assits to turnover ratio has been 1.14 (average: 16 assists to 14 turnover per game) Hopefully we can cut down on a few of the sloppy turnovers by the time we get to Conference play. Bakari really does try to get everyone involved. He makes some amazing passes that his teammates don't even see coming sometimes.
2016-17: 1
2015-16: 1.07
2014-15: 1.08
2013-14: 0.86
2012-13: 1
2011-12: 1
2010-11: 1.14

[Pgmado]

Update heading into Arch Madness

Unders: Parker Hazen, Micah Bradford, Tevonn Walker, Max Joseph, Bakari Evelyn, Markus Golder, Joe Burton, Marten Linssen, Derrik Smits, Mileek McMillan, MVC Finish, Long Conf. Winning streak, Attendance, Wins (will change to Over if Valpo somehow wins five more games).

Overs: Jaume Sorolla, John Kiser, Long Conf. Losing streak

Assists or Turnovers: Turnovers (80)

Yet to be determined: Arch Madness wins, Postseason wins.

Standings
13 -- Paul Oren, vu84vs
11 -- M, VU2014, HC, Hal Kilgore, Sean G
10 -- MH Doering, Tyler Good, Valpo89, 78Crusader
9 -- Nick Feller, THASELEY, zvillehaze
8 -- talksalot, PantherU, Kurt Woock, ME Doering, bbtds
7 -- covufan
6 -- Sami K

All 21 entries guessed Mileek McMillan would have under 4.5 rebounds per game. He has 1.5 rpg.
Sami K was only person who guessed Joe Burton would average more than 16.5 points.
Paul Oren and PantherU were only two people correctly guessing that Valparaiso wouldn't win three straight Valley games.
11 entries believe(d) that the Crusaders will win at least two games in Arch Madness.
13 entries believe(d) that not only will the Crusaders make a postseason tournament, but they'll win a game once they get there.

[talksalot]

to see "How close was the result to the poll"...

1. Parker Hazen -- 5.5 rpg (originally was 6.5) - regular season:   1.2 (got 25 in 21 games, needed 116 total for the "over")
2. Micah Bradford -- 33.3% 3PFG - regular season:  26.4%  (23 or 87, needed to be 27 of 87 for a push)
3. Tevonn Walker -- 82.5% FT - regular season:  76.9%  (100 of 130, needed to be 108 of 130 for "over")   
4. Max Joseph -- 1.2 orpg (originally was 1.5) - Regular season:  .96 OR/gm  (got 30 in 31 games, needed 38 for the "over")
5. Bakari Evelyn -- 5.5 apg - regular season:  2.91 apg (got 90 in 31 games, would have needed 171 for the "over")
6. Markus Golder -- 30 dunks -
7. Joe Burton -- 16.5 ppg - scored 115 points in 10 games, average 11.5... bye bye
8. Marten Linssen -- 8.5 mpg - Regular season:  7.4  (162 minutes in 22 games, needed 187 minutes total to make 8.5 for the games he played)
9. Jaume Sorolla -- 50.0% FG - Regular season:  54.1%  was 53 of 98 from the floor.  0-1 from 3 and 34-44 (77%) from the line
10. Derrik Smits -- 30 blocks - regular season:  20 blocks on the year (Sorolla has 30)
11. Mileek McMillan -- 4.5 rpg - regular season:  1.5 rpg (46 rebounds in 31 games, would need 140 for the over)
12. John Kiser -- 10.5 mpg - regular season:  18.4 mpg (460 minutes in 25 games)

13. Wins -- 19.5 - regular season 15
14. Arch Madness wins -- 1.5  OVER
15. MVC finish -- 3.5  - 10th is that an "Over" because Higher is a bigger number than 3.5?... asking for a friend...
16. Postseason victories (not including conference tourney) -- 0.5 UNDER
17. Longest conference winning streak -- 2.5 - regular season:  2  (SIU and Drake)
18. Longest conference losing streak -- 2.5  - regular season:  5 (UNI, MSU LOY, EVN, ILL ST)
19. Average home attendance -- 3,000   - Regular Season:   38,111 for 14 games to average 2,722  (we needed 42,000 to hit the 3,000 average)