Valpo in the Rankings 2017-18

[VU2014]

Valpo is #8 in the new CollegeInsider.com poll. We jumped 10 spots in a week.

http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

UNI being ranked behind us at this point is just silly.  They should be ahead of Valpo and Loyola for certain.  Records mean too much in this poll it would seem.

Agreed. Just by eye test I wouldn't say Evansville/Drake are even fringe Top 25 right now. Although Drake had a nice win against Wake Forest but WK is pretty down this season. Not to take anything away from those teams but I just don't see it right now.

[talksalot]

National comparison

CURRENT WIN STREAKS:  Valparaiso T-3, 5-way tie with Cincinnati, Minnesota, Loyola and Virginia at 7-0
LONGEST WIN STREAKS THIS SEASON:  T-2, 5-way tie with Cincinnati, Minnesota, Loyola and Virginia at 7
CURRENT HOME WIN STREAKS:  T-9, 5-way tie with Bucknell, Louisville, NC-Asheville and Wichita State at 12  (Vermont is at 14)
BEST ROAD RECORDS:  T-8, with a bunch of other teams at 1-0
SCORING MARGIN:  17, 19.6 PPG, (#16 Virginia is 19.7 and #18 Arizona State is 19.3)
WINNING PERCENTAGE:   T-1 with 27 other schools undefeated

[agibson]

UNI being ranked behind us at this point is just silly.  They should be ahead of Valpo and Loyola for certain.  Records mean too much in this poll it would seem.

There's a lot of inertia in the mid-major coaches poll like there is in the AP and national coaches poll. It feels like a lot of people start with their ballot the week before, and just move things up/down based on wins and losses. It's hard to break into these things.

Frankly, I'm much more surprised that Northern Iowa vaulted so high in the Mid-Major Madness ranking.

It's hard to weigh a couple of big wins against other factors. KenPom, a computer ranking many respect, has Loyola 76, Valpo 82, Northern Iowa 96. Sagarin, another computer ranking that seems to have respect, has Northern Iowa 62, Valpo 72, Loyola 86.

[agibson]

Valpo's at
AdjO 100.0   (189th)
AdjD 97.7   (85th)

for an overall +2.27 "adjusted efficiency margin" which puts us at #132.

I expect our offensive rating will improve. We'll see.

Edwardsville's defense is not (was not?) highly rated. But, you score 94, your offensive rating is going to go up.

KenPom:

118   Valparaiso    MVC   3-0   +3.62   101.3   167   97.7   80

(#118 overall, +3.62 adjusted efficiency margin, #167 offense, defense basically unchanged at #80)

Our Pomeroy's continued to increase. The defense after every game. The offense slipped a bit after the UNCW (before that we were as high as 104.7, #128).

Overall we were #92 before Savannah, #88 after the first game, #82 now.

Currently:
82   Valparaiso   MVC   7-0   +7.28   104.0   145   96.8   47   

[agibson]

Pomeroy (kenpom.com) has, after a game or two,

(84 Oakland)
94 Illinois State
95 Missouri State
100 Loyola
(115 Northern KY)
119 Bradley
124 Southern Illinois
129 Northern Iowa
132 Valparaiso
143 Evansville
(158 UIC)
165 Indiana State
(191 Wright State)
(208 Milwaukee)
223 Drake
(230 IUPUI)
(248 Green Bay)
(268 Cleveland State)
(278 Youngstown State)
(280 Detroit)

I'm definitely liking "8 teams in the top 150"!

Just for fun, let me update these too

76 Loyola (+24)
82 Valparaiso (+50)
98 Northern Iowa (+31)
107 Illinois State (-13)
(109 Northern KY) (+6)
110 Missouri State (-15)
(120 Oakland) (-36)
122 Bradley (-3)
137 Evansville (+6)
155 Southern Illinois (-31)
(166 Milwaukee) (+42)
(172 UIC) (-14)
186 Indiana State (-21)
(195 Wright State) (-4)
197 Drake (+26)
(225 IUPUI) (+5)
(280 Green Bay) (-32)
(282 Cleveland State) (-24)
(292 Detroit) (-12)
(317 Youngstown State) (-39)

Looks like Valpo, then Milwaukee, then Northern Iowa have been the biggest risers.

Youngstown, Oakland, Green Bay, and SIU the biggest fallers.

Now the Valley has three in the top-100, still 7 in the top-150. And nobody below 200!

[Valpower]

If we get a vote or two it would be for the 8-0 record, for having another win while some teams lose, rather than Utah State being any kind of signature win. I certainly don't _want_ Loyola to lose, but I figure in the short term that voters may be reluctant to have two 8-0 mid-major teams with no big wins on their ballot. And that many will pick Loyola over us.

We're probably going to get a chance to see how hard they ding us after Loyola gets smoked by Boise. We've played a lot of common opponents and, thus, their difficulties with a good Boise team and ours with a hobbled Utah State will weaken the achievement of being unbeaten. Luckily, I don't care much about rankings this year.  The potential for this team is great.

[talksalot]

as of 10pm Warren Nolan update...

Win Streaks - This Season
1. Duke 8
1. Valparaiso 8


Current Win Streaks
1. TCU 11
2. Duke 8
2. Valparaiso 8



Most Wins
1. Duke 8 - 0
2. Cincinnati 7 - 0
2. Minnesota 7 - 0
2. Virginia 7 - 0
5. Valparaiso 6 - 0
5. Arizona State 6 - 0
5. Colorado 6 - 0
5. Florida State 6 - 0
5. Kansas 6 - 0
5. Nevada 6 - 0
5. Syracuse 6 - 0
5. TCU 6 - 0
5. Texas A&M 6 - 0
5. Texas Tech 6 - 0
5. UNLV 6 - 0
5. Villanova 6 - 0
5. Washington State 6 - 0


Current Home Win Streaks
1. Oregon 46
2. Cincinnati 30
3. SMU 27
4. Florida State 24
5. Texas Southern 23
6. North Carolina 20
7. Dayton 16
8. Vermont 14
9. Valparaiso 13
9. Wichita State 13



Winning Percentage
1. Valparaiso 100.0%
1. Arizona State 100.0%
1. Cincinnati 100.0%
1. Colorado 100.0%
1. Duke 100.0%
1. Florida State 100.0%
1. Georgetown 100.0%
1. Illinois 100.0%
1. Kansas 100.0%
1. Louisiana Tech 100.0%
1. Miami (FL) 100.0%
1. Minnesota 100.0%
1. Mississippi State 100.0%
1. Nevada 100.0%
1. Notre Dame 100.0%
1. San Diego 100.0%
1. Syracuse 100.0%
1. TCU 100.0%
1. Texas A&M 100.0%
1. Texas Tech 100.0%
1. UNLV 100.0%
1. Villanova 100.0%
1. Virginia 100.0%
1. Washington State 100.0%

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/935743657470251009
https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/935743556408500226

[VU2014]

We're a 12 seed in Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology update. We'd be facing Purdue a 4 seed. A little ironic given who up next on the schedule.

https://twitter.com/michaelosipoff/status/936277354363670534

https://twitter.com/michaelosipoff/status/936277354363670534

[agibson]

We're a 12 seed in Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology update. We'd be facing Purdue a 4 seed. A little ironic given who up next on the schedule.

Nice!

[The seeds in first round games add to 17. Like 1 vs 16. So, Valpo's a 12, Purdue's a 4, but they're not playing each other. Though they are at the same site. Gonzaga (5) vs. Valpo (12). Purdue (4) vs. MTSU (13).]

[VUGrad1314]

It's great to be getting this kind of love but UNI not even being in the field right now is just baffling.

[valpo4life]

It's great to be getting this kind of love but UNI not even being in the field right now is just baffling.

Eh, UNI's early season resume doesn't support this statement currently. Only 1 Top 100 win in UNLV. RPI wise our wins over SIUE and SELA are better than NC State, for the time being lol.

[agibson]

It's great to be getting this kind of love but UNI not even being in the field right now is just baffling.

They're the (only?) ones who might have the makings of an at-large bid. But, it's hard to deny the tantalizing possibilities of an X-0 record. Let's enjoy it, while we can.

[vu84v2]

Hypothetically, how many losses do you think that Valpo could absorb and still get an at-large bid. Let's assume that none of those losses occur against sub-160 RPI opponents (UC-Riverside, Drake, Indiana State) - not to underestimate those opponents but just to eliminate a 'really bad loss' being considered. I am not predicting that this will happen, but am interested in opinions.

I would say 4 total, including in the conference tournament semifinal or final. If it were in the final, that would put Valpo at 30-4 and would probably require an upset of Northwestern and an incredible (and unrealistic) 16-2 record in the first year of MVC play. If we did the same thing with UNI, they would probably be allowed 6 or maybe 7 total losses (they have 2 already) and need a win over Xavier for an at-large birth due to some very strong non-conference opponents. It just shows what a mountain mid-majors face when trying to get an at-large birth these days.

[agibson]

Hypothetically, how many losses do you think that Valpo could absorb and still get an at-large bid. Let's assume that none of those losses occur against sub-160 RPI opponents (UC-Riverside, Drake, Indiana State) - not to underestimate those opponents but just to eliminate a 'really bad loss' being considered. I am not predicting that this will happen, but am interested in opinions.

I would say 4 total, including in the conference tournament semifinal or final. If it were in the final, that would put Valpo at 30-4 and would probably require an upset of Northwestern and an incredible (and unrealistic) 16-2 record in the first year of MVC play.

Would a win or two against UNI be enough? That may be our best chance at a quality win, as things forecast today. Purdue would help immensely. Northwestern would probably help just for the B1G cache.

RPI Forecast actually expects our RPI to stay about where it is now.Coming into the conference tournament they have us at 21-8, 12-6 in conference, and RPI 52 or so.

If we managed 24-5, and they see that finish or better as about 9% likely, they think our RPI would be 25 or 26.

But, if those five losses are Purdue, Northwestern, UNI twice, and, say, a split with RPI 84 Missouri State, I bet they find a way to leave us out of the tournament.

(This conversation feels like tremendous hubris! At minimum a guilty pleasure. But, I'm going to run with it until we pick up a couple of losses, or a bad loss, etc.)

[a3uge]

Hypothetically, how many losses do you think that Valpo could absorb and still get an at-large bid. Let's assume that none of those losses occur against sub-160 RPI opponents (UC-Riverside, Drake, Indiana State) - not to underestimate those opponents but just to eliminate a 'really bad loss' being considered. I am not predicting that this will happen, but am interested in opinions.

I would say 4 total, including in the conference tournament semifinal or final. If it were in the final, that would put Valpo at 30-4 and would probably require an upset of Northwestern and an incredible (and unrealistic) 16-2 record in the first year of MVC play. If we did the same thing with UNI, they would probably be allowed 6 or maybe 7 total losses (they have 2 already) and need a win over Xavier for an at-large birth due to some very strong non-conference opponents. It just shows what a mountain mid-majors face when trying to get an at-large birth these days.

Knowing the selection committee... 0.

[talksalot]

we need things like UNCW not to lose to #325 East Carolina... they are tied with 3 to play.

[Valpower]

we need things like UNCW not to lose to #325 East Carolina... they are tied with 3 to play.

Overtime. C'mon UNCW. Not only is East Carolina lowly, their coach just resigned.

[talksalot]

and that was after the Seahawks scored the first 10 points of the game...

at least Santa Clara is winning BIG early...(27-7)  11:27 to go in the first half

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/936641908235005952
https://twitter.com/MrMattCraig/status/936594427539283969

https://theathletic.com/170675/2017/12/01/mid-major-top-25-power-rankings-nevada-saint-marys-unlv-vermont-rhode-island-bucknell/

1. Nevada (7-0)
2. UT Arlington (6-1)
3. Saint Mary's (5-2)
4. Vermont (6-1)
5. Rhode Island (4-2)
6. Northern Iowa (6-2)
7. Belmont (4-4)
8. Middle Tennessee (4-1)
9. Florida Gulf Coast (6-2)
10. UNLV (6-1)
11. Western Kentucky (5-2)
12. Bucknell (3-5)
13. VCU (4-3)
14. Missouri State (6-2)
15. St. Bonaventure (4-2)
16. South Dakota State (7-2)
17. Towson (6-1)
18. Bradley (6-1)
19. Georgia Southern (5-2)
20. Boise State (6-1)
21. Oakland (4-3)
22. College of Charleston (5-2)
23. Albany (7-1)
24. Louisiana Tech (5-1)
25. Yale (5-4)

Honorable mention: Illinois State, Northern Kentucky, Portland State, BYU, San Diego State, Old Dominion

[VUGrad1314]

How bad is Lunardi shafting the MVC? UNI has beaten teams on the "last four byes" (SMU) First four in (NCST) and next four out (UNLV). And UNI is nowhere to be found anywhere on his so-called Braketology. That's a disgrace. This is a multi bid league right now. Whether it will finish as one is another matter entirely but not to have the MVC receiving multiple bids right now is just being petty and in the Power 5's pocket.

[agibson]

This is a multi bid league right now.

I don't know about that. An RPI of 61 isn't likely to do if or Valpo. Unless you're saying Bradley (41) and UNI (27) would be in. But, it's stilly too early for me to want to take RPI very seriously.

But, you could well argue that UNI deserves the auto-bid over Valpo. But, I think he probably just goes with record (non-con only for now) to determine the auto-bids.

[VUGrad1314]

UNI certainly. Bradley has been fantastic but they're in the same boat as Valpo right now. Their numbers look very good but their resume lacks signature victories .  Beating SDSU  on Sunday and Ole Miss in three weeks will help in that regard. But I think they need both and to win out over the rest of the nonconference schedule to have a real chance. Their non-con schedule is pretty unspectacular.

[VU2014]

I think the MVC is probably still going to be a 1 bid league even if we finish as a Top 8-9 RPI conference coming into Conference play. Even if we had 2 worthy conference teams on paper I have zero faith the Committee would give the MVC an at-large because they have a track record of screwing worthy mid-majors.

I think a lot of teams are going to be beating each other up in Conference play this season. I don't see a Wichita State or Illinois State type team going 17-1 in conference play.

Maybe UNI, Bradley, Loyola-Chicago, & Valpo have a shot as things stand right now. None of those 4 teams have a resume killing bad loss right now, but they'd need to not have a single bad loss to finish non-conference AND in conference play. UNI has a statement performances in the Non-Conference and Bradley also has a statement win against GA Southern and nearly beat a very good Vermont team. Loyola-Chicago looked awful against Boise State but Boise is still a strong team. Loyola doesn't have a statement win yet.

Valpo doesn't have any statement games yet but we haven't done anything to hurt our resume yet either. Our statement opportunities come in December against Purdue, Northwestern and a good-not great Ball State team. We'll gain respect from the media pontificators if we have good showings against Purdue and Northwestern even if we don't win the games.

[ValpoDad89]

Valpo2014' while it's wrong, we all know the Committee will make it right with their selections. I really and truly hate the selection committee because they care more about "brand" than substance. Valpo gives them substance. We have, the past 2 years.

They should look at teams that are afraid to play us in the barn known as the ARC and pit them against them in a true home game scenario.

I'll never forget being at the NIT games against Texas State, and then P5 Florida State followed by St. Mary's where we took care of all of them in a semi packed to packed to the rafters gym.