Game #9 - Purdue @ Mackey Arena Thursday, Dec 7

[covufan]

I give Valpo a less than 5% chance of winning this game. It is nothing against Valpo - they are just a team that is developing well, but has not developed enough to play with a team like Purdue. Valpo has too few options on offense to avoid long scoring droughts and is not developed enough at the 4 and 5 to handle Purdue's bigs (many in D1 would have a problem with them). I think Valpo loses by 20-25. What I am looking for is whether there are 5-8 minute stretches when Valpo plays even with them and whether Valpo's defense is as good as it seems to be.

I think that Valpo has a much better chance against Northwestern.

Massey gives us a 12% chance against PurWHO, and 33% against Northwestern:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=298892

T-Rank gives us 9% and 34%:

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Valparaiso

Teamrankings gives us 5.3% and 29.5%:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections

The Northwestern game is winnable, but it would take a near perfect game - an extra OR on our side with an extra DR on our side, then an extra defended 3 on our side, and an extra offensive 3 on our side - but it can happen. 

[NativeCheesehead]

While I do think Purdue kicks the crap out of us (78-57), I think this game might be looked back on throughout this year, and maybe next, as the one that really propelled us.

I appreciate this team and the hustle they've shown, but we are simply not on the mental level to compete with a Purdue right now. Sloppy passes, late defensive rotations, bad closeouts (looking at you, Derrik) are way too plentiful so far. We've gotten away with it simply because our level of competition has been bad.

The good news is we have a smart coaching staff and they will use this game to show the players the type of level they need to be at to compete with these teams. I think the NW game will be very interesting after that.

That being said, if we go into Mackey and give Purdue a game, watch out MVC.

[justducky]

Valpo has too few options on offense to avoid long scoring droughts and is not developed enough at the 4 and 5 to handle Purdue's bigs (many in D1 would have a problem with them). I think Valpo loses by 20-25.

It may happen like this. When their bigs get the ball down low we try to double and get burned by the open outside man. When we get the ball in the post they can cheat towards the middle creating some turnovers in the process and concede some semi contested shots from our perimeter 4's. Can we shoot lights out from beyond the arc? Probably not and if we can't it could be a long night.

I think Sorolla and Smits can learn as much from this game as they did in their previous 8. I would like to see them get some clean 1 vs 1 looks against Haas and Harrms. I am expecting some ugly play here but they can learn a lot from their mistakes.

How can Haas be defended? He backs everybody down so effortlessly that it almost looks like it is legal. How about a Lexus Williams type defensive crouch which puts our bigs heads on his midsection?

[vu72]

I give Valpo a less than 5% chance of winning this game. It is nothing against Valpo - they are just a team that is developing well, but has not developed enough to play with a team like Purdue. Valpo has too few options on offense to avoid long scoring droughts and is not developed enough at the 4 and 5 to handle Purdue's bigs (many in D1 would have a problem with them). I think Valpo loses by 20-25. What I am looking for is whether there are 5-8 minute stretches when Valpo plays even with them and whether Valpo's defense is as good as it seems to be.

I think that Valpo has a much better chance against Northwestern.

Massey gives us a 12% chance against PurWHO, and 33% against Northwestern:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=298892

T-Rank gives us 9% and 34%:

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Valparaiso

Teamrankings gives us 5.3% and 29.5%:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections

The Northwestern game is winnable, but it would take a near perfect game - an extra OR on our side with an extra DR on our side, then an extra defended 3 on our side, and an extra offensive 3 on our side - but it can happen. 

Remember Northwestern is on a neutral floor and our crowd may be as large as theirs!

[Valpo89]

I've been around long enough, and so have many on this board, to expect nothing less than a disheartening beat down in Mackey. I've seen too many VU teams with high hopes go up against Purdue or other "power 5" teams only to be sorely disappointed during the game and at the final outcome. If Northwestern ends up with a 24-5 disparity in free throws, how bad could it be for Valpo? Haas and his new cohort will expose Smits and Sorolla, and show why they are at VU and not a Big 10 school. It's not going to be pretty, folks. Painter knows Valpo is capable, there will be no overlooking the Crusaders and Purdue will win by 20-plus.

[vu72]

I've been around long enough, and so have many on this board, to expect nothing less than a disheartening beat down in Mackey. I've seen too many VU teams with high hopes go up against Purdue or other "power 5" teams only to be sorely disappointed during the game and at the final outcome. If Northwestern ends up with a 24-5 disparity in free throws, how bad could it be for Valpo? Haas and his new cohort will expose Smits and Sorolla, and show why they are at VU and not a Big 10 school. It's not going to be pretty, folks. Painter knows Valpo is capable, there will be no overlooking the Crusaders and Purdue will win by 20-plus.

You might be right 89, time will tell.  I watched Purdue beat Marquette and I honestly thought they could be a final four team.  Having said that, the last time we played at Purdue we lost by 24 (2009-2010) with a team that finished 15-17.  It was Broekhoff's freshman year and our starting center was Cory Johnson at 6'7"(maybe).  What we lack in experience at this point in the season we gain in speed and athleticism and I think that is what might keep us in the game.  Typically Purdue is bigger and faster, like in 09-10 but that won't be the case this time.  We are as big and athletic as they are.  Now, being as big height wise doesn't make you as tough to be sure!  It will be a very good test for our young team.  I'll go with a loss of 15 or less.

[govalpogo]

I'm just ready for the game to be played!!!  8-0 is nice to look at, but I want to see some basketball !

[wh]

I'll know 5 minutes into warmups how the game is going to go. If we look like this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBVqX2cmVtY

...we may pull off the upset. If we look like this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SNIGiS2o3A

...it could be a long evening.

[crusaderjoe]

Does anyone think this long layover between games could actually hurt us? Maybe the guys won't come out sharp after its been over a week since the Utah State game?

I don't like the long layover, but not because of the fear that the guys won't come out sharp.  I don't like the layover because we're getting too much attention.  No chance of us sneaking up on Purdue and stealing one.  None.  Let's just hope this game won't be like 2002 Kentucky.  We had a long layoff after the conference tournament, got a little press that said Valpo was a team to watch during that interim, then Kentucky took notice, and promptly ran us out of the building.

[covufan]

Does anyone think this long layover between games could actually hurt us? Maybe the guys won't come out sharp after its been over a week since the Utah State game?

I don't like the long layover, but not because of the fear that the guys won't come out sharp.  I don't like the layover because we're getting too much attention.  No chance of us sneaking up on Purdue and stealing one.  None.  Let's just hope this game won't be like 2002 Kentucky.  We had a long layoff after the conference tournament, got a little press that said Valpo was a team to watch during that interim, then Kentucky took notice, and promptly ran us out of the building.

Noted.  However, this isn't that Valpo team.  Purdue isn't that Kentucky team.  If we play a good game, we can be in this game in the final three minutes.  From there, it could be interesting.

[valpo64]

How many bus loads are headed to W. Lafayette?

[VU2014]

How many bus loads are headed to W. Lafayette?

As of last month it was 2. I'm sure many people are planning on driving down there as well.
https://twitter.com/ValpoAlumni/status/930157578713272322

[VU2014]

This just emphasizes how tough Mackey is of a place to play. That is an impressive group of teams that probably were more tested then we are going in there on Thursday.

https://twitter.com/ChrisForman12/status/938157705650475019

[VUfan]

This just emphasizes how tough Mackey is of a place to play. That is an impressive group of teams that probably were more tested then we are going in there on Thursday.

https://twitter.com/ChrisForman12/status/938157705650475019

When we win we will be in select Company and By reading Above know we why can't, Change is hard!!!! hope the team has not read This!!!! 

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/938183294277111808
https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/938183511265169413
https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/938183710859579393
https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/938184634331955200
https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/938185049081511936
https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/938186147993411584
https://twitter.com/MichaelOsipoff/status/938182219356688384
https://twitter.com/MichaelOsipoff/status/938182783561814016
https://twitter.com/MichaelOsipoff/status/938183442424049665
https://twitter.com/MichaelOsipoff/status/938183601031655427
https://twitter.com/MichaelOsipoff/status/938183700055035904

[ValpoDad89]

After seeing us in person against Utah State, for us to win in Mackey, we need out mid range game to fluoirish. We need Smits and Sorolla to attack the rim like Linssen did against u St. We need to both defend the perimeter and score form the wings/perimeter to have a chance. They will work that ball down low against us, how we defend and answer will have a big outcome on this game. Honestly, this a potential Sweet 16 dark horse FF contender. Stay in the game with them and come out better than we did against Kentucky last year. We win, awesome. We don't but gave them fits all night still a win.

[wh]

Before we deify these guys...

W. Kentucky postgame press conference:

https://purdue.rivals.com/news/purdue-s-bahamas-misery-continues-with-loss-to-western-kentucky

What if Purdue was one of us?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Gx1Pv02w3Q

[FieldGoodie05]

One thing is for certain, we can't expect to go another 20-years for a top 25 win (home or away).

If we do, then we don't belong in the same breath as UNI or other giant slayers in this MVC.  IMO we need Top 25 wins every class (4-years) to keep the program moving in a positive direction.  If you argue Top 40, then I'd agree there even.

We've done very solid things these last 25-years, but that's not enough in a conference with Big Boy Programs.  Wipe the board clean, this is a new quarter century.  Excited to see us grow this year.  Truly hoping we have a fellow MVC compatriot crack the Top 25 this year!

[justducky]

Good to hear that Matt will continue the deep player rotation against Purdue. This is the sign of a confident coach developing his team, in his way, on his timetable.

Short term this might make things a bit uglier but for March 2018 and beyond I love it. 

[Valpower]

Good to hear that Matt will continue the deep player rotation against Purdue. This is the sign of a confident coach developing his team, in his way, on his timetable.

Short term this might make things a bit uglier but for March 2018 and beyond I love it.

Maybe.  Sure it challenges the offensive rhythm, but if the bench is productive (and it has been against so-so opposition) I like a deep rotation as good insurance against fouling out and injuries and a good way to keep the players fresh enough to play intense defense.

[VU2014]

Coach may say that he'll play everyone on Thursday but if we have any sort of run going with a 1 lineup he's going ride them till they force him make a switch. These are the types of games you don't worry about the minutes log as long as you still have a chance to win the game. If we get blown out yeah, I could see him keeping guys legs fresh for Saturday against Ball State (which just beat #9 Notre Dame in South Bend tonight).

It will be interesting to see how coach subs and rotates guys if they get into foul trouble (with Big 10 refs officiating this game they won't be friendly with the whistle to Valpo...)

[justducky]

I hope we don't get caught looking past Purdue while we are preparing for Ball St. 

[historyman]

When: Thursday, December 7th
Where: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette IN

Tip: 6:30 (ET) (approximate)
TV: FS1

h-man: Saw this on the Purdue message board. Apparently the start time is dependent on when other games finish.

[bbtds]

Remember Northwestern is on a neutral floor and our crowd may be as large as theirs!

Not really. My guess will be 1/4 Valpo fans. There will be a big Valpo fan group but the numbers Northwestern brings to Rosemont is normally about 1/2 to 2/3 of the All State Arena. 17,500 is capacity for basketball.

[talksalot]

I'll take the under at 7,000 folks in the seats next Thursday night... UNLESS Valpo goes into the game 10-0...