Game #9 - Purdue @ Mackey Arena Thursday, Dec 7

[talksalot]

Time to put on our big boy pants... We get a long time to rest up, practice our 3-point shooting, and watch them play two games on national TV.

Purdue 105-SIUE 74
Purdue 111 Chicago State 42 - Battle for Atlantis
Purdue 86 Marquette 71 - Gavitt Games - in Milwaukee
Purdue 106 Fairfield 64
Tennessee 78 Purdue 75 - Battle for Atlantis
Western Kentucky 77 Purdue 73 - Battle for Atlantis
Purdue 89 Arizona 64 - 7th place game Battle for Atlantis
Purdue 66 Louisville 57

and coming up...
Friday, 12/1, Purdue at Maryland - Big10 network 6pm central
Sunday, 12/3, Northwestern at Purdue - Big10 network 3pm central

Us on 12/7

and 12/10 they host IUPUI... maybe we can catch them looking ahead ?

A lot of us will be hanging our hat on the anomaly that was the Western Kentucky game... so here's a link to that Box Score...

http://statbroadcast.com/events/archived.php?id=199199

WKY won the rebounding battle 36-33 (both teams with 11 OR)
WKY  was 5-12 from 3pt; PU was 8-27
WKY was 16-24 from the line, PU was 17-20
WKY had 12 TOs, PU had 13

this may have been the big stat...
PU's starters played, 32, 35,35, 29 and 20 minutes; one guy (Matt Haarms)  off the bench scored 4 points in 11 minutes...
WKY's starters played 32,34,35,35 and 14; with two guys off the bench playing 24 and 21, scoring 19 points, 7 Rebs and 2 TOs

Points in the paint:  WKY 38, PU 26

[covufan]

I think we can surprise Purdue and win this game!  It will take a near perfect game, 40% from 3 point land, 80% on FTs, great rebounding and limit the turnovers.

Valpo  75
Purdue 74

-------

Okay, some reality has set in...

Valpo  70
Purdue 75

I see us competing during this game, but Purdue's depth finishes the game.

[swiftmutiny]

I'm not too optimistic about this one, especially on the road and the way we've been shooting from 3. 72-60 Purdue.

[crusadermoe]

Our talent is good.  But we are not cohesive enough or confident enough to contend with Purdue.  Sorry but I say 74 to 59 Purdue.

However, this year we do have a strong on the ball point guard and people can who can release their shot high enough vs. a Big 10 teams. That has not usually been true at VU.  So....on any given day we could shoot 60% and win.   Or we could 30% like vs. USU. 

[VULB#62]

Aw, c'mon.  How about 74-60?  59 sounds so, well, not good.

[VU2014]

I actually think we have a shot to steal a W in Mackey this year. If our offense is flowing for a majority of the game (a big if) and our bigs stay out of foul trouble, along with HOT 3 point shooting then I could see us stealing a win. We'd need to be have a great night. I've watched most of
purdue's games. They're very good but they're beatable.

I think we can win on the right night, but I wouldn't bet on us. We have a chance though.

[a3uge]

Our talent is good.  But we are not cohesive enough or confident enough to contend with Purdue.  Sorry but I say 74 to 59 Purdue.

However, this year we do have a strong on the ball point guard and people can who can release their shot high enough vs. a Big 10 teams. That has not usually been true at VU.  So....on any given day we could shoot 60% and win.   Or we could 30% like vs. USU.

Confidence? Have you watched this team this year?

[Valpower]

Our talent is good.  But we are not cohesive enough or confident enough to contend with Purdue.  Sorry but I say 74 to 59 Purdue.

However, this year we do have a strong on the ball point guard and people can who can release their shot high enough vs. a Big 10 teams. That has not usually been true at VU.  So....on any given day we could shoot 60% and win.   Or we could 30% like vs. USU.

Confidence? Have you watched this team this year?

Indeed. They're so confident that they feel they can try silly or lazy passes without consequence. But, I am reminded of the studies that show American students behind in every facet of academics compared to other countries but ranking number one in confidence. Let them not be those people.

[valpotx]

Purdue 77
Valpo 68

[SanityLost17]

We can't beat Purdue going 12 deep.  That much I know.  These are the sorts of games where our top dogs need to play, play a lot, and play well. 
Piick 8 and roll with them.   Coach should know who is and who is not ready for this sort of jump up in competition.

Move Golder into the starting lineup.  Max / Smits / Kiser off the bench.       

Gonna need Tevonn to hit 34 minutes (a 3 minute break each half).   He should be exhausted for Ball State, let others pick up the slack for that one.   

[VU2014]

We can't beat Purdue going 12 deep.  That much I know.  These are the sorts of games where our top dogs need to play, play a lot, and play well. 
Piick 8 and roll with them.   Coach should know who is and who is not ready for this sort of jump up in competition.

Move Golder into the starting lineup.  Max / Smits / Kiser off the bench.       

I agree with everything here. If we're going to keep it close we're probably going be rolling with a shorter bench. If Micah isn't having one of hot offensive nights right away Coach will probably be quick to pull him.

We're also going to need something from 4s. They need to do 2 main things. Defend and rebound. Everything else is gravy. I could see Purdue trying to take advantage of our young Power Forwards. Vince Edwards is going to be a really tough cover for our team.

[valpolaw]

This is going to have to be our cleanest game so far this year if we're going to pull this off.  There's a chance we can, but if we play like we did against Utah State, I suspect we'll get beat by 10 to 20 points. 

[78crusader]

Not sure we have beaten a Big 10 team on the road since the early 1970s when we knocked off Northwestern -- a game I attended.  I'm not positive, but I think we beat them handily -- by 15 or 20 points.

Purdue will be a very tough environment.  I have to pick Purdue by 20+.  We will get better in tough matchups as the season progresses, but chances are this will be a learning lesson for our young team. 

Paul

[valpopal]

According to Sagarin, as of right now Purdue would be favored by 15 points. I would like to see a big upset, but realistically I would view a single-digit loss as a positive result for Valpo as they continue to move forward. In fact, it would be positive from an rpi standpoint.


I would like to see the whole road trip as a way to build further cohesion in team play, especially getting some players on track (Burton, Bradford, Hazen) and adding more confidence in the center position rotation, then begin the all-important conference play with a totally healthy (particularly Walker) and even more improved team than the one that began the season 8-0.

[ml2]

Margin of victory is not a factor in RPI, so if we lose to Purdue by 1 or by 30, it will be all the same. Now for ratings like Sagarin and KenPom, a close loss would have a very different effect on our ratings than a blowout.

[Pgmado]

In Valparaiso's last 47 true road games against high major programs, dating back to 1993, the Crusaders are 3-44.

Road games at high major opponents
Mar. 14, 2017 -- Illinois 82-57
Dec. 7, 2016 -- Kentucky 87-63
Nov. 17, 2016 -- Oregon 76-54
Nov. 24, 2015 -- Oregon State W 63-57
Nov. 22, 2015 -- Oregon 73-67
Nov. 16, 2014 -- Missouri 56-41
Nov. 13, 2013 -- Illinois 64-52
Nov. 15, 2012 -- Nebraska 50-48
Mar. 14, 2012 -- Miami (Fla.) 66-50
Nov. 25, 2011 -- Ohio State 80-47
Nov. 7, 2011 -- Arizona 73-64
Nov. 15, 2010 -- Kansas 79-44
Dec. 9, 2009 -- at Purdue 86-62
Nov. 22, 2009 -- Michigan State 90-60
Nov. 15, 2009 -- North Carolina 88-77
Dec. 28, 2008 -- Purdue 59-45
Mar. 19, 2008 -- Washington W 72-71
Dec. 30, 2008 -- North Carolina 90-58
Dec. 22, 2008 -- Wisconsin 68-58
Nov. 20, 2008 -- Vanderbilt 87-78
Dec. 2, 2006 -- Ohio State 78-58
Nov. 21, 2006 -- North Carolina State 78-64
Dec. 18, 2005 -- Duke 104-77
Dec. 7, 2005 -- Marquette 69-54
Dec. 3, 2005 -- Iowa 72-59
Dec. 29, 2004 -- Arizona State 89-65
Dec. 19, 2004 -- Illinois 93-56
Nov. 19, 2004 -- Cincinnati 88-70
Feb. 26, 2004 -- Duke 97-63
Nov. 22, 2003 -- Marquette 75-70
Mar. 17, 2003 -- Iowa 62-60
Dec. 30, 2002 -- Missouri 65-47
Dec. 28, 2002 -- Purdue 87-55
Dec. 2, 2002 -- Cincinnati 76-50
Nov. 24, 2002 -- Syracuse 81-66
Jan. 2, 2002 -- Kansas 81-73
Dec. 30, 2001 -- Arizona 74-70
Dec. 8, 1999 -- Notre Dame 65-42
Dec. 4, 1999 -- Minnesota 57-44
Dec. 11, 1998 -- Purdue 78-70
Nov. 30, 1998 -- Illinois 53-49
Nov. 20, 1996 -- Vanderbilt 74-66
Dec. 21, 1995 -- Purdue 74-53*
Dec. 14, 1995 -- Wisconsin 90-73
Nov. 27, 1994 -- Notre Dame 77-69
Nov. 28, 1993 -- Notre Dame 95-74
Mar. 3, 1993 -- Notre Dame W 80-66

Certain big games against teams like New Mexico, St. Louis, Houston and Charlotte have been left off the list. While on a higher level than Valpo, I don't consider them high major like the aforementioned teams.

[valpopal]

Margin of victory is not a factor in RPI, so if we lose to Purdue by 1 or by 30, it will be all the same. Now for ratings like Sagarin and KenPom, a close loss would have a very different effect on our ratings than a blowout.

I agree. Sorry if I wasn't clear. I didn't mean to suggest that the margin of victory would impact the rpi, which I know doesn't matter, but that just playing a top-ranked team like Purdue would be positive for the rpi. My point about margin of victory had to do with team confidence, which would be stronger with a single-digit loss on the road to such a high-ranking opponent rather than suffering a blowout. In addition, as you note, other ratings do consider margin of victory and road or home in their evaluations.

[M]

I think you will see all 12 guys play and our 6, or so, big guys use up a lot of their fouls especially on Haarms who has been atrocious at the line.  I'd defend the 3 point line hard and let my big guys go one on one with their big guys.  Defend them straight up, and if you foul make sure it isn't an and 1.

Valpo 69-67 winner on a Burton buzzer beater.

[justducky]

We can't beat Purdue going 12 deep. 

I think Matt will figure out a way for us to compete but I just don't know how he will do it.

This is the game where the need for an experienced Peters or Fazekas type 4 will be apparent. Any chance at victory depends our ability to adaquately fill in this gap. Could we see a few minutes of dual Smirollas? What could it hurt but the point spread 

[vu72]

Not sure we have beaten a Big 10 team on the road since the early 1970s when we knocked off Northwestern -- a game I attended.  I'm not positive, but I think we beat them handily -- by 15 or 20 points.

Purdue will be a very tough environment.  I have to pick Purdue by 20+.  We will get better in tough matchups as the season progresses, but chances are this will be a learning lesson for our young team. 

Paul

So based on the results listed above, Valpo has played 20 such games in the last 10 years, having won 2 and played within 12 points 7 other times.  Purdue is really good and one of only a couple of teams that actually are bigger than us, particularly in the post with two huge guys (7'3" 250# and 7'2" 290#).  I'm guessing we stay within 15, 78-65.

[Valpower]

We can't beat Purdue going 12 deep.

I think Matt will figure out a way for us to compete but I just don't know how he will do it.

This is the game where the need for an experienced Peters or Fazekas type 4 will be apparent. Any chance at victory depends our ability to adaquately fill in this gap. Could we see a few minutes of dual Smirollas? What could it hurt but the point spread 

I don't see how we avoid the 12-player rotation.  The home-cooking, general toughness of Purdue, and our own players' challenges with NOT fouling will almost demand it.  Furthermore, no lineup has really emerged in the last two games (the toughest, so far) as being the identity of the team.  The best chance we have is for our bench players to come in (with very specific assignments) and execute. Offensively, our core players will not be able to play to their strength for an entire game without the bench mixing things up. In our 6 D1 games, the bench has shot 73-143 (51%).  How do you take that away?

[VU2014]

A TBT from CA
https://twitter.com/chrisartis5/status/936447779467087872

[oklahomamick]

Did those uniforms have a print of the state of Indiana with VU stitched inside the state?  I like it

[justducky]

Northwestern at Purdue on BTN at 3:00. Good chance to scout both.

I watched most of the Purdue win at Maryland. At the 1,2 and 3 positions I think we are approximately even. At the 5 they are better and at the 4 they have a senior facing our freshman. At first glance I will say Purdue over VU by a dozen. I think we may try to use all of our depth but not all will be up to the task.

[historyman]

Don't expect any calls to go our way. Northwestern just played at West Lafayette and got jobbed as bad as any other visiting team by these Big Ten officials.