Monthly W-L Record Poll #2: December

[wh]

Following is the Crusaders December game schedule:

DEC 7     @ Purdue
DEC 9     @ Ball State
DEC 14   @ Northwestern
DEC 18   @ Santa Clara
DEC 20   @ UC Riverside
DEC 28   @ Indiana State
DEC 31   Missouri State (H)

What will our record be?

[M]

Undefeated!   

[VULB#62]

I was thinking 4-3 with losses to both B1G teams and it being hard to win both games on a long road trip to the left coast.  However, this bunch of players seems to have a surprise element (in a good way) in their composite DNA, so I went with 5-2.

The two losses would either be both Purdue and Northwestern and a clean slate in the others, or a loss to Purdue and one of the Cali teams on an off-night.    And of the two Cali schools it's hard to make a choise - Riverside did beat Cal but got blown out by Michigan by 45 points.  Santa Clara lost to Nevada by 30 and their only win is against D-III LaVerne. If this winds up being the scenario, my guess would be we beat Santa Clara and then become a little complacent and loaf our way to a loss at Riverside. 

While Ball State has been tough of late, there is enough memeory of that awful loss two years ago in Muncie, along with being ticked at losing at Purdue two days before, to motivate our guys.  So that'll be a win. Then we'll have 4 days to rest and prepare for NU.

[Valpower]

I was thinking 4-3 with losses to both B1G teams and it being hard to win both games on a long road trip to the left coast.  However, this bunch of players seems to have a surprise element (in a good way) in their composite DNA, so I went with 5-2.

The two losses would either be both Purdue and Northwestern and a clean slate in the others, or a loss to Purdue and one of the Cali teams on an off-night.    And of the two Cali schools it's hard to make a choise - Riverside did beat Cal but got blown out by Michigan by 45 points.  Santa Clara lost to Nevada by 30 and their only win is against D-III LaVerne. If this winds up being the scenario, my guess would be we beat Santa Clara and then become a little complacent and loaf our way to a loss at Riverside. 

While Ball State has been tough of late, there is enough memeory of that awful loss two years ago in Muncie, along with being ticked at losing at Purdue two days before, to motivate our guys.  So that'll be a win. Then we'll have 4 days to rest and prepare for NU.

Bite your tongue.  That's the only game I'll be attending after many years.  Not gonna happen on my watch.

[vu84v2]

Hard to go any higher than 4-3 with six out of seven games on the road. My rationale on 4-3 is: loss at Purdue, split Northwestern and Santa Clara (more likely to beat Santa Clara), split with Indiana State and Missouri State (more likely to beat Indiana State), win at UC-Riverside, and a very tight win at Ball State. Obviously, I would like to be shown to be too pessimistic like I was last month.

[SanityLost17]

I am still debating back and forth between 4-3 and 3-4.   Yes, we have lots of road games, but the upside is  Ball State, Purdue, Northwestern, and Indiana State are all extremely close drives.   So yes, they are road games, but we should not be super weary from all the travel.   Because of that I am leaning towards 4 and 3.

[FieldGoodie05]

Following is the Crusaders December game schedule:

DEC 7     @ Purdue
DEC 9     @ Ball State
DEC 14   @ Northwestern
DEC 18   @ Santa Clara
DEC 20   @ UC Riverside
DEC 28   @ Indiana State
DEC 31   Missouri State (H)

What will our record be?

3-4 the road is not kind to an inexperienced team.  Still means we go 11-4 in 2017 (heck of a start).

10-8 in 2018 and it means we finish the regular season 21-12.  Strong first year in the MVC.

[covufan]

3-4 the road is not kind to an inexperienced team.  Still means we go 11-4 in 2017 (heck of a start).

And yet there is no vote for losing record?

[VU2014]

I voted conservatively in the month of November poll. Now I'm going to vote a little bit more aggressively.

DEC 7     @ Purdue - L (I think we have a chance but this will only be or 2nd true road game in a very tough place to win. Our 1st true road game was against a terrible SIUE team. Regardless of a potential loss, this game will pay dividends down the road)
DEC 9     @ Ball State - W (a tough road game. It will be close)
DEC 14   @ Northwestern - W (I think we pull off the upset)
DEC 18   @ Santa Clara -W (I WANT PAYBACK)
DEC 20   @ UC Riverside - W (We should beat this team but it will be a long road trip so this could be a "trap game". Don't let up. UC Riv beat a bad P5 team in Cal earlier this year)
DEC 28   @ Indiana State - W (Indiana State isn't a slouch but our roster is more talented then their roster this season. I think we steal a W in our first ever Valley Conference game)
DEC 31   Missouri State (H) - L (I think we drop this one. MSU is good and the Alize Johnson matchup will be a problem for us. We'd need Hazen/Mileek to step up. Maybe we try putting Burton on him but Joe isn't a great defender from what I've seen so far. Maybe we put Golder on him? My gutsays we drop this one with the Students not back on campus yet)

Side Note: it's really unfortunate our first MVC home game will be without the students...

Overall I think we finish the month of December with a 5-2 or 4-3 record.

[FieldGoodie05]

3-4 the road is not kind to an inexperienced team.  Still means we go 11-4 in 2017 (heck of a start).

And yet there is no vote for losing record?

Don't follow?

[talksalot]

I went 5-2... but I'm glad you didn't ask which 2 !!    and going 2-5 would not totally destroy me...as long as the two wins are the last two!

[govalpogo]

I like to predict a little lower than my hopes so that surprises tend to me pleasant (like 8-0!), so I'm in at 4-3. 

I figure the guys get put in their place against Purdue.

Still reeling a bit, pull off a close W at Ball St.

Play close but take the loss against NW.

Take care of business in CA. 

Win a good one against to open league play.

Lose a heart-breaker to Mo St.  (Really hoping for a win here though.)


In my wildly optimistic thoughts, I imagine springing a B1G upset and going 12-1 in the non con while putting on a strong 12-6 display in the MVC, clicking in time to get 3 straight Arch Madness, eeking out a game against a 5 seed, and then catching a 4 seed sleeping, before eventually succumbing to a 1 seed in the Sweet 16.  A marvelous 29-8 start to the MVC era for Valpo!   

[crusadermoe]

I took 5-2 expecting to lose both Big 10 games on the road.  But also hoping that the west coast trip gives us time to bond and to finalize a solid rotation before ISU and Mo. State.  Even though Johnson is pretty unstoppable, I think Mo State is overrated.

[VUfan]

When was the last time we played two Big Teams in a month?
We beat Purdue by 4, beat Ball State 8, lose to NW by 3 in OT. win twice in CA, knock off the MVC teams. That's 6-1 a 14-1 record for the new year.  Flying!!!! 

[valpotx]

Just like my 8-0 in November, I am being overly positive at guessing 6-1!

[valpolaw]

I agree with VU2014's analysis.  I think we'll have two loses.  A loss at Purdue that will wake us up and expose our flaws.  Then I think we will loss a close one to either Northwestern/Missouri State. 

[covufan]

3-4 the road is not kind to an inexperienced team.  Still means we go 11-4 in 2017 (heck of a start).

And yet there is no vote for losing record?

Don't follow?

In the poll portion of this thread there are no votes for a losing record.

[justducky]

In the poll portion of this thread there are no votes for a losing record.

I just changed that so that our voting will cover all the bases. Am I really that negative? No but a losing record is likely more probable than for us to go 6-1 or better. We could play well at Purdue, Ball St and Northwestern and still come out 0-3. Then getting a sweep on the west coast can not be easy. ISU and MSU will also be  extremely difficult.

Now that I have revisited my most negative thoughts a 4-3 result sounds realistic.

[VU2014]

3-4 the road is not kind to an inexperienced team.  Still means we go 11-4 in 2017 (heck of a start).

And yet there is no vote for losing record?

Don't follow?

In the poll portion of this thread there are no votes for a losing record.

After the strong start, the expectations having been raised, rightly or wrongfully. I'll say it. I'd be a little "disappointed" with a losing record even if the schedule in December is tough.

2 games that we should win: Santa Clara & UC-Riverside (these would be considered bad losses)
3 games against good teams that wouldn't be considered upsets if we won: Ball State, Indiana State, MO ST (we should be compete with all 3)
2 upsets games: Purdue, Northwestern (on paper they are better)

[chef]

I see a handful of people predicting a loss to Missouri St. Not sure I understand the logic. All indications thus far is that Valpo is the better team. I wouldn't look at pre-season projections when you have a month of on-court data. Also it's a home game for Valpo, where we lose almost never.

[VUCPB alum]

Based off never actually seeing MO State play this year and only by looking at their stats on ESPN what I find interesting is that on paper we are both similar teams. They have 10 + guys averaging at least 10 minutes, their 3 point shooting has be subpar at this point which means they are pounding the paint, and they're a top 50 scoring defense. As history has shown whenever two similar teams face eachother the home team has the advantage but our advantage could be neutralized if the atmosphere isn't raucous, which is a possibility if the students aren't there. Despite that, Valpo will win by two buckets

[bbtds]

In the poll portion of this thread there are no votes for a losing record.

I just changed that so that our voting will cover all the bases. Am I really that negative? No but a losing record is likely more probable than for us to go 6-1 or better. We could play well at Purdue, Ball St and Northwestern and still come out 0-3. Then getting a sweep on the west coast can not be easy. ISU and MSU will also be  extremely difficult.

Now that I have revisited my most negative thoughts a 4-3 result sounds realistic.

OR NOT!

[Dave_2010]

I'll be satisfied with 4-3, but think 3-4 is more realistic. Less than 4 wins would be a disappointment and more a bonus.

Purdue has the potential to be ugly. West coast trips are always rough and I'd be shocked to see them do better than a split. I️ expect wins at Ball State and InSt but weird things happen during in-state road games *cough* refs *cough* especially to young teams. The month's success or failure comes down to Northwestern (tough situation that the team is probably too young to overcome) and MoSt on NYE which I️ think they find a way to win.

[bbtds]

I see a handful of people predicting a loss to Missouri St. Not sure I understand the logic. All indications thus far is that Valpo is the better team. I wouldn't look at pre-season projections when you have a month of on-court data. Also it's a home game for Valpo, where we lose almost never.

Didn't consider MO ST a loss even when the Bears were predicted #1 in MVC. That was a bad prediction.

[bbtds]

I'll be satisfied with 4-3, but think 3-4 is more realistic. Less than 4 wins would be a disappointment and more a bonus.

Purdue has the potential to be ugly. West coast trips are always rough and I'd be shocked to see them do better than a split. I️ expect wins at Ball State and InSt but weird things happen during in-state road games *cough* refs *cough* especially to young teams. The month's success or failure comes down to Northwestern (tough situation that the team is probably too young to overcome) and MoSt on NYE which I️ think they find a way to win.

I really don't feel these teams (except for Purdue & Northwestern) are any better than the teams we beat on the road in Edwardsville and Savannah. I think we split the B1G teams because Rosemont won't be that much of a road game. We will have to play our best but these are the games these players came to Valpo to play. It will be close (as it was against Illinois last night in OT) but I think we pull out a winner.

Wake up, class! These predictions aren't boring.