This is NOT an @ Missouri St Jan. 17, 7:00 PM game thread

[justducky]

Nobody else feels the hot hand and I am ice cold in recent attempts so no way will I kick this thing off.

Just call this a place where we can not talk about our upcoming visit to 60 RPI MSU. While we are not on that topic, lets also not discuss the recent drubbing they recently handed us at the ARC.

[VU2014]

I'm not feeling too confident about Wednesday's game. I just think we aren't a great matchup with Missouri State this season. I thought Valpo did a pretty good job of slowing down Alize Johnson on the Offensive end on New Years Eve but he still had a big impact on that game. I don't think he's only going to get 11pts in the 2nd matchup.

Some interesting stats since December 1 (11 game sample size):
-Valpo hasn't won a game with a FG% below 49.1%
-Valpo hasn't won a game when we've shot below 50.0% from behind the 3 point line

It's pretty simple. Pretty much since losing Joe we've needed to have other guys make shots to win games. I don't think anyone should ever expect this roster to hit over 50% from 3 consistently. We are a streaky shooting team.

It's pretty obvious but when this team shoots poorly we don't win and we've had more poor shooting nights then strong shooting nights. The offense has looked better lately but I think it's clearly this team lacks offensive weapons right now. Not to say these guys won't develop into consistent offensive threats in the future but it's been a consistent theme of this season.

[crusadermoe]

You always have a shooters chance if you shoot 70% like Villanova did to beat Georgetown. 

But here's the daunting issue. Alize Johnson put up a 20-20 at home against Northern Iowa.   Who guards him?  Others pointed out this match up problem in the  preseason or early in the season.  Can Golden play defense well enough to take some minutes and fouls?  He's the only one with the height and quickness to bother Johnson.

[justducky]

I wish this game was at the end of February. Young teams tend to gradually get better, and better and better; while mature teams tend to peak mid season then level out. I wouldn't be shocked if we can beat them in St. Louis but a win Wednesday night is probably asking for too much.

But here's the daunting issue. Alize Johnson put up a 20-20 at home against Northern Iowa.   Who guards him?  Others pointed out this match up problem in the  preseason or early in the season.  Can Golden play defense well enough to take some minutes and fouls?  He's the only one with the height and quickness to bother Johnson.

Golder will need a lot of help. McMillan will get his chance but that limits our offensive potential. I wouldn't be surprised to see some more 2-3 and 1-3-1 zone play plus some minutes with the 2 bigs. Will any of it work?

When does Kiser return? We need him if we have any chance for a 9-9 or better season.

[FWalum]

I thought McMillan did a nice job defensively when matched with Johnson in the first meeting considering this is a freshman vs a senior.

[M]

In the first round Mileek did a real nice job on Johnson defensively (at least limiting his scoring).  Can he lock down an NBA talent twice in a row??

[valpo64]

I thought we kept Johnson relatively in check when they played us earlier at home.

[agibson]

Alize Johnson put up a 20-20 at home against Northern Iowa.

Absurd. And apparently he's done this twice this season. The other was in a loss vs. North Dakota State.

Two last season too, both in MVC play.

His wikipedia entry claims it was a lack of D1 offers that led him to two years of JUCO.

I see him #29 (end of the first round) in one NBA mock draft.

[agibson]

I thought we kept Johnson relatively in check when they played us earlier at home.

11 points, off his 15.5 average.

He did get 12 rebounds, above his 11.6 average.

In MVC play he's actually doing even better than overall: 18.7/14.2.

[FieldGoodie05]

I thought McMillan did a nice job defensively when matched with Johnson in the first meeting considering this is a freshman vs a senior.

It could be argued that the outcome was not in doubt for most of that game.  We didn't see Alize's best effort because he's a good teammate who didn't have to create for them to win.

Our PF will get smoked by Alize in a closer game, I surmise.

[valpotx]

MO State 69
Valpo 60

[crusadermoe]

82 to 63 Bears.  Sorry.

[FieldGoodie05]

82 to 63 Bears.  Sorry.

I'll 2nd that, 19-point loss on the road against a team with two great PF (Alize and Scurry)

[justducky]

We are playing better and our 4 guard offense (should we decide to use it) might keep us within respectable range. The downside to a lineup that small is keeping MSU from scoring. We just do not match up very well offensively or defensively with the experienced bodies they can place on the floor. Just as I said before this is an opponent where a Fazekas or a Burton could make a major difference.

I think our best options are:
#1 McMillan, On paper this looks like a no brainer and even if this doesn't work now he and Hazen need to be on the floor to learn and practice their power forward trades.
#2  Any two bigs. I am placing Linssen in the same category as Derrik and Jay because his play to date is much more that of a center and not a forward. This option almost demands a zone defense.
#3 Our 4 guard lineup---- This option might give us the most points at the expense of giving up an equal or greater amount on defense. It would probably get us in early foul trouble too.

So I'd say we start with option 1, experiment with some option 2, and if we are still in the game late maybe we see some option 3. We DO have a small chance to win but a close loss will not greatly disappoint me.

[NativeCheesehead]

Seeing the post in another thread about the % of minutes played by upperclassmen has put this team's inconsistent play into a little better perspective. I think we see a better, smarter effort this time around.

MSU 72
Valpo 68

It's been a long time since we've considered a close road conference loss a moral victory. But that's where we are.

[covufan]

I think this team will be challenged to remember the previous MSU game two and a half weeks ago. We've proven we can play well at home, now do it on the road, against one of the best MVC teams.

Valpo   79
MSU     74

(I may be using my away brown and gold glassses)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VU2014]

If I had to guess we're going to be leaving Springfield with an L, but keep in mind Paul Lusk MSU teams have a knack for laying unexplainable eggs from time to time.

My prediction:
Missouri State - 78
Valpo - 67

[vu72]

https://youtu.be/C70hTIM19aE

[VU2014]

I'm seeing betting lines with Valpo +7.5 tonight.

[VU2014]

A preview of the game from the Springfield, MO newspaper. They pretty much say it like is:

https://twitter.com/Standard_Sports/status/953720040435699712

Preview: Valparaiso comes to JQH Arena for rematch with Bears
Alec McChesney, Editor in chief
Jan 17, 2018

..........

"Walker is the best player on the squad, but since Burton's departure, he's been the only player who poses a threat to take over a game. As other teams know this, they key in on him and make other players beat them. Walker scored just six points in the Crusader's five-point loss to Northern Iowa over the weekend.

If Walker doesn't score and score often, Valparaiso can't keep up on the scoreboard. In the victory against Drake, Walker paced the Crusaders with 26 points.

Walker is joined by sophomore guard Bakari Evelyn, sophomore guard Markus Golder and senior guard Max Joseph.

This makes things very clear for the Bears: They must attack the paint and the inside all game long. The Crusaders top four scorers and players all play the guard position."

.........

http://www.the-standard.org/sports/preview-valparaiso-comes-to-jqh-arena-for-rematch-with-bears/article_fa1398f4-fbc0-11e7-9271-47c9d4359243.html

[agibson]

"Walker is the best player on the squad, but since Burton's departure, he's been the only player who poses a threat to take over a game. As other teams know this, they key in on him and make other players beat them. Walker scored just six points in the Crusader's five-point loss to Northern Iowa over the weekend.

If Walker doesn't score and score often, Valparaiso can't keep up on the scoreboard.

What about Bakari? It seems like he's taken over a game or two, scoring wise.

But, obviously we'll all feel a lot better about our chances if Tevonn gets 20. And he's the closest thing we've got to a _consistent_ scoring threat.

[VU2014]

I think Bakari may eventually get there but I'm not sure he is on Tevonn's level yet in terms of impact. Bakari played out of his mind against UNCW so he's shown he can do it. He's looked pretty good since Indiana State. I think having Micah split the ball handling the last handful of games has taken some of the pressure off of Bakari.

[Just Sayin]

Valpo wins tonight. 

[vu72]

I think Bakari may eventually get there but I'm not sure he is on Tevonn's level yet in terms of impact. Bakari played out of his mind against UNCW so he's shown he can do it. He's looked pretty good since Indiana State. I think have Micah split the ball handling the last handful of games has taken some of the pressure off of Bakari.

Clearly having Bakari at the 2 is working as Micah has been fantastic distributing the ball.  I imagine we will go small again tonight but who knows...Shoot 50% from the 3 and we'll have a chance!  Kiser back?

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/valpoathletics/status/953781464566509569