National Conference Realignments

vuweathernerd · February 07, 2013, 08:12:13 PM

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 07, 2013, 05:27:47 PM
Quote from: valpotx on February 07, 2013, 03:10:48 PM
ND State would have a decent shot at the MVC, maybe SD State. Since they both already have football in the conference, and seem to be committed to winning in all sports in D-1. I don't think we have any chance at MVC status at current, unless we show a few years more of championship success in most sports, which it seems we are intending to do.

Really? I would think we are a better pickup for the MVC than ND State. I think the HL is a better fit for us anyways. Both conferences are 1 bids.

they'd automatically get to claim the 2-time defending fcs football national champion. and they're looking to improve other programs. they're already holding serve in basketball right now. the only problem would be hockey, but that seems to be independent of other conference affiliation anyway.

VULB#62 · February 07, 2013, 08:31:47 PM

Enjoyed your analysis zville.

About VCU and why they are out of the picture. Public - Check. Urban with a fragmented/dispersed set of facilities - Check. Smallish arena capacity (7500) - Check. Smallish TV market - Check. Picturesque campus - Nope (not really a factor but I added it anyway).

Question: Why not BOTH SLU and Creighton? Both Creighton and SLU is Jesuit. They don't play FB and they are in different markets.

Assuming 12, you add Butler, X, STL and CU = 11. Then you go back to the A-10 and grab either LaSalle or St. Joe's. Neither play football, both are RC, and they have sizable enrollments and great BB traditions. The only down side is that it makes the new conference a bit Philly-centric with two schools (Villanova and ?) within 10 miles of each other, but Philly is apretty big city and should support that..

The markets (northeast to mid-west):
Providence - RI and Mass
St. John's - NYC/LI
Seton Hall - NYC/NJ
Villanova - Philly
[St. Joe's/LaSalle] - Philly
G'Town - Balt/D.C.
Xavier - Cincinnati
DePaul - Chicago
Marquette - Milwaukee
Butler - Indianapolis
St. Louis - St. Louis
Creighton - Omaha

It marches right across the country. Looks pretty compelling to me. And if the two in Philly are a problem, grab Duquesne in the Pittsburgh market to go head to head with UPitt (talk about a march across geography).

vu72 · February 07, 2013, 08:39:49 PM

So with all that catholicism, butler fits in? seems like they, (and the pope) might want it to be an exclusive league, and easily done. It would leave butler in a mess as they just jumped ship to a ship about to sink. Interesting.

VULB#62 · February 07, 2013, 08:52:05 PM

This might help them get in (from Wikipedia):

Butler University opened on November 1, 1855, as North Western Christian University at 13th street and College Avenue on Indianapolis' near north-side at the eastern edge of the present Old Northside Historic District on land provided by attorney and university founder Ovid Butler.

So there's some sort of religious affiliation. But if they were Lutheran

fuggetaboutit!

zvillehaze · February 07, 2013, 09:26:09 PM

Quote from: vu72 on February 07, 2013, 08:39:49 PM
So with all that catholicism, butler fits in? seems like they, (and the pope) might want it to be an exclusive league, and easily done. It would leave butler in a mess as they just jumped ship to a ship about to sink. Interesting.

Xavier and Butler have been the two schools mentioned from the beginning. The Marquette AD mentioned them and now Lunardi confirms it. It was also mentioned somewhere (Marquette AD?) that being Catholic was not a requirement. How does Butler fit in? Well, aside from the religious aspect, Catholics like $ too, and contrary to the popular belief on this board, Butler is a national program that brings $ to the table. I know your general position is to wish the worst for Butler, but I think they have some smart (and forward looking) people in charge, and will come out of this ok. Remember, you were among the many proclaiming the move to the A-10 was a horrible mistake, yet I haven't seen any evidence of that yet.

Quote from: VULB#62 on February 07, 2013, 08:31:47 PM
Enjoyed your analysis zville.

About VCU and why they are out of the picture. Public - Check. Urban with a fragmented/dispersed set of facilities - Check. Smallish arena capacity (7500) - Check. Smallish TV market - Check. Picturesque campus - Nope (not really a factor but I added it anyway).

Question: Why not BOTH SLU and Creighton? Both Creighton and SLU is Jesuit. They don't play FB and they are in different markets.

Assuming 12, you add Butler, X, STL and CU = 11. Then you go back to the A-10 and grab either LaSalle or St. Joe's. Neither play football, both are RC, and they have sizable enrollments and great BB traditions. The only down side is that it makes the new conference a bit Philly-centric with two schools (Villanova and ?) within 10 miles of each other, but Philly is apretty big city and should support that..

The markets (northeast to mid-west):
Providence - RI and Mass
St. John's - NYC/LI
Seton Hall - NYC/NJ
Villanova - Philly
[St. Joe's/LaSalle] - Philly
G'Town - Balt/D.C.
Xavier - Cincinnati
DePaul - Chicago
Marquette - Milwaukee
Butler - Indianapolis
St. Louis - St. Louis
Creighton - Omaha

It marches right across the country. Looks pretty compelling to me. And if the two in Philly are a problem, grab Duquesne in the Pittsburgh market to go head to head with UPitt (talk about a march across geography).

I know St. Joe's wants to be considered if they go to 12, but I'm seeing that Richmond might be the preferred option. Adds another market and balances the league between east coast and midwest (versus adding Dayton). It's interesting that the Lunardi comments seem to conclude that Dayton is out of the mix ... they have great support, but don't bring a new market (shadowed by Cincinnati and Indianapolis) and have little recent NCAA success.

zvillehaze · February 07, 2013, 09:42:49 PM

I'd like to add that I think Butler is positioned very well in the A-10 as it currently stands. If it would stay intact, I'd fully support them staying there as most people think they'll get 4 or 5 NCAA bid ... very good conference IMO. The obvious problem is that if Butler isn't proactive in moving to the C7, they (as vu72 suggests) could be left isolated in the midwest if X, Dayton and SLU do make the jump.

bbtds · February 07, 2013, 09:55:33 PM

Quote from: VULB#62 on February 07, 2013, 08:52:05 PM
This might help them get in (from Wikipedia):

Butler University opened on November 1, 1855, as North Western Christian University at 13th street and College Avenue on Indianapolis' near north-side at the eastern edge of the present Old Northside Historic District on land provided by attorney and university founder Ovid Butler.

So there's some sort of religious affiliation. But if they were Lutheran fuggetaboutit!

Ovid Butler was a devout member of the Church of Christ and an Abolitionist. Those ties are no longer very strong but that is Butler's background.

The Butler School of Religion, a graduate school established to further the education of ministerial students, was opened in 1924. The School of Religion severed its institutional ties to Butler in 1958 and became Christian Theological Seminary, which maintains formal ties to the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ). CTS settled into a facility located just south of Butler's campus in 1966.

VULB#62 · February 07, 2013, 09:57:59 PM

Quote from: zvillehaze on February 07, 2013, 09:26:09 PM
I know St. Joe's wants to be considered if they go to 12, but I'm seeing that Richmond might be the preferred option. Adds another market and balances the league between east coast and midwest (versus adding Dayton). It's interesting that the Lunardi comments seem to conclude that Dayton is out of the mix ... they have great support, but don't bring a new market (shadowed by Cincinnati and Indianapolis) and have little recent NCAA success.

But Richmond, while private and bringing a small market to the table (like Creighton-Omaha), does not have a distinguished BB tradition like all of the other schools previously mentioned. And besides the 300 or so miles south between Philly and Richmond doesn't change the balance IMO.

And, Dang, Butler is like the prom queen. Everyone wants her. And she would feel comfortable in either place. What an enviable position to be in. I seriously wonder what all this national publicity is doing to affect their application numbers. I'll bet it's through the roof. Kinda like the Flutie Factor at BC when he won the Heisman.

vu72 · February 07, 2013, 11:08:05 PM

Quote from: zvillehaze on February 07, 2013, 09:26:09 PM
Quote from: vu72 on February 07, 2013, 08:39:49 PM
So with all that catholicism, butler fits in? seems like they, (and the pope) might want it to be an exclusive league, and easily done. It would leave butler in a mess as they just jumped ship to a ship about to sink. Interesting.

Xavier and Butler have been the two schools mentioned from the beginning. The Marquette AD mentioned them and now Lunardi confirms it. It was also mentioned somewhere (Marquette AD?) that being Catholic was not a requirement. How does Butler fit in? Well, aside from the religious aspect, Catholics like $ too, and contrary to the popular belief on this board, Butler is a national program that brings $ to the table. I know your general position is to wish the worst for Butler, but I think they have some smart (and forward looking) people in charge, and will come out of this ok. Remember, you were among the many proclaiming the move to the A-10 was a horrible mistake, yet I haven't seen any evidence of that yet.

Quote from: VULB#62 on February 07, 2013, 08:31:47 PM
Enjoyed your analysis zville.

About VCU and why they are out of the picture. Public - Check. Urban with a fragmented/dispersed set of facilities - Check. Smallish arena capacity (7500) - Check. Smallish TV market - Check. Picturesque campus - Nope (not really a factor but I added it anyway).

Question: Why not BOTH SLU and Creighton? Both Creighton and SLU is Jesuit. They don't play FB and they are in different markets.

Assuming 12, you add Butler, X, STL and CU = 11. Then you go back to the A-10 and grab either LaSalle or St. Joe's. Neither play football, both are RC, and they have sizable enrollments and great BB traditions. The only down side is that it makes the new conference a bit Philly-centric with two schools (Villanova and ?) within 10 miles of each other, but Philly is apretty big city and should support that..

The markets (northeast to mid-west):
Providence - RI and Mass
St. John's - NYC/LI
Seton Hall - NYC/NJ
Villanova - Philly
[St. Joe's/LaSalle] - Philly
G'Town - Balt/D.C.
Xavier - Cincinnati
DePaul - Chicago
Marquette - Milwaukee
Butler - Indianapolis
St. Louis - St. Louis
Creighton - Omaha

It marches right across the country. Looks pretty compelling to me. And if the two in Philly are a problem, grab Duquesne in the Pittsburgh market to go head to head with UPitt (talk about a march across geography).

I know St. Joe's wants to be considered if they go to 12, but I'm seeing that Richmond might be the preferred option. Adds another market and balances the league between east coast and midwest (versus adding Dayton). It's interesting that the Lunardi comments seem to conclude that Dayton is out of the mix ... they have great support, but don't bring a new market (shadowed by Cincinnati and Indianapolis) and have little recent NCAA success.

Dude, I was joking. It would be a terrific conference. It is obvious why they want Butler, it seems interesting that there was such a big deal about the "Catholic 7" and then they pursue one school who isn't, that's all.

valpotx · February 08, 2013, 12:23:26 AM

Butler is definitely a national program now, with the only point I like to make being that they are not Duke, like some of your fans think. But yes, I wish nothing but the worst for the school on a daily basis lol

.

In regards to NDSU and SDSU, they would VERY much be considered and likely for the MVC. They are much better than being a Big Sky team for their non-football programs, as they put money into those and seem to be having success. Both schools have had good results in the MVFC since moving into that portion of the conference, and have shown they are committed to the other money-maker in basketball. Good-sized programs, what seems to be a solid fan base for their location, and competing for championships. The only thing they don't have going for them is their location.

zvillehaze · February 08, 2013, 06:05:14 AM

Quote from: vu72 on February 07, 2013, 11:08:05 PM
Dude, I was joking. It would be a terrific conference. It is obvious why they want Butler, it seems interesting that there was such a big deal about the "Catholic 7" and then they pursue one school who isn't, that's all.

My bad, vu72 ... I should have picked up that you were joking.

FWIW, here's the latest from Andy Katz. http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/75294/3-point-shot-big-east-7-possible-candidates

StlVUFan · February 08, 2013, 12:11:22 PM

I think it's a shame the A-10 can't just think of themselves as world beaters. When I look at VCU, Butler, Xavier, Dayton, SLU, Temple, and I'm probably missing a couple, that's a conference I could learn to love from afar.

That said, if other teams are looking to graduate, Butler would be foolish to be slavishly loyal to their new home.

oklahomamick · February 08, 2013, 12:55:49 PM

Theres a lot of talk on other fan blogs that Detroit will go to A-10 once A-10 loses a couple to the Catholic 7.

valpotx · February 08, 2013, 01:09:29 PM

More power to Detroit if they do so, but the A-10 won't be anywhere near as good as it currently is without Butler, Xavier, SLU, and possibly Dayton. They will lose the schools that are actually in their region, and have to travel East for everything.

vu72 · February 08, 2013, 01:24:26 PM

Detroit has an interesting athletic profile. They have 8 men's sports and 9 women's but both include fencing and lacrosse. Thus, they have only 6 and 7 sports respectively in the Horizon. We on the other hand have 17 sports in the Horizon. I suppose, depending on the conference, that they would have to add a few sports, who knows...

oklahomamick · February 08, 2013, 01:55:34 PM

So the question is which conference will be the best option?

1. The MVC (no Creighton)
2. A-10 (no butler, Xavier, Dayton)
3. Horizon (possible Oakland, Murray st. and Belmont)

Was it smart for the HL to delay invitations last year after Butler exited and see what's left of the A-10, MVC or OVC?

valpotx · February 08, 2013, 02:03:31 PM

I would rank the MVC as 1, Horizon as 2, and A-10 a distant third with what you list there. There is nothing to entice me about the A-10 without Butler, Xavier, SLU, Dayton, Temple, or Charlotte. The rest of those schools are just ok, outside of VCU. The MVC without Creighton is still better than the Horizon with the teams you list, but I would much prefer Oakland/Belmont/Evansville, as I don't think Murray State will leave with them having football...unless they drop to non-scholarship football.

crusaderjoe · February 08, 2013, 02:08:52 PM

Chicago State AD: "You have not seen anything yet"

http://www.midmajormadness.com/2013/2/7/3965972/more-wac-changes-conference-realignment

Cryptic to say the least but interesting nonetheless. So who's on deck to move "west"? Nebraska-Omaha? I thought I read somewhere that the WAC commissioner stated that he wanted to get the league up to ten members in the future. Idaho is gone in 2014 to the BSC and NMSU is most likely gone as soon as a spot opens (Sun Belt or CUSA?). The WAC will need more schools other than UMKC to get there. Who is next?

valpotx · February 08, 2013, 02:52:42 PM

There isn't anything the WAC can do to be relevant again. Look at the POS teams in the conference! Chicago State gained the chance at NCAA bids, since the Great West had no chance at it, but UMKC just tripped up majorly. Even if they get some extra $$ in the short-term because of how WAC teams have performed the last few years, that will dry out after a few years, and these new teams are out of the NCAA basketball tournament in the 16 seed play-in game each year. I believe your NCAA bids/wins are spread out over a 5 year process, so anything done the last 4 and this year will be gone in 5 years.

a3uge · February 08, 2013, 03:04:44 PM

Quote from: valpotx on February 08, 2013, 02:52:42 PM
There isn't anything the WAC can do to be relevant again. Look at the POS teams in the conference! Chicago State gained the chance at NCAA bids, since the Great West had no chance at it, but UMKC just tripped up majorly. Even if they get some extra $$ in the short-term because of how WAC teams have performed the last few years, that will dry out after a few years, and these new teams are out of the NCAA basketball tournament in the 16 seed play-in game each year. I believe your NCAA bids/wins are spread out over a 5 year process, so anything done the last 4 and this year will be gone in 5 years.

Not to mention the difficulty in recruiting decent players who want to play against the likes of Grand Canyon University or Chicago State.

zvillehaze · February 08, 2013, 06:39:21 PM

Quote from: valpotx on February 08, 2013, 02:03:31 PM
I would rank the MVC as 1, Horizon as 2, and A-10 a distant third with what you list there. There is nothing to entice me about the A-10 without Butler, Xavier, SLU, Dayton, Temple, or Charlotte. The rest of those schools are just ok, outside of VCU. The MVC without Creighton is still better than the Horizon with the teams you list, but I would much prefer Oakland/Belmont/Evansville, as I don't think Murray State will leave with them having football...unless they drop to non-scholarship football.

Of the 11 A-10 teams that would be left, six are currently top 100 RPI and those 11 teams have an average RPI of 109. The Horizon has an average of 158, and that drops to 139 with the addition of Oakland, Murray and Belmont. VCU, SLU, Richmond, LaSalle, UMass and St. Joe's may not entice you, but that group is stronger (tradition/current success/recent success) than you give them credit for.

The real problem the A-10 will have is trying to keep things from crumbling furhter. As I mentioned earlier, I can't see SLU staying in the A-10 if X, Butler and Dayton were to leave, although I guess adding additional midwest teams (Detroit/Loyola?) might be on their agenda. Who knows?

StlVUFan · February 08, 2013, 07:15:14 PM

Quote from: zvillehaze on February 08, 2013, 06:39:21 PM
Quote from: valpotx on February 08, 2013, 02:03:31 PM
I would rank the MVC as 1, Horizon as 2, and A-10 a distant third with what you list there. There is nothing to entice me about the A-10 without Butler, Xavier, SLU, Dayton, Temple, or Charlotte. The rest of those schools are just ok, outside of VCU. The MVC without Creighton is still better than the Horizon with the teams you list, but I would much prefer Oakland/Belmont/Evansville, as I don't think Murray State will leave with them having football...unless they drop to non-scholarship football.

Of the 11 A-10 teams that would be left, six are currently top 100 RPI and those 11 teams have an average RPI of 109. The Horizon has an average of 158, and that drops to 139 with the addition of Oakland, Murray and Belmont. VCU, SLU, Richmond, LaSalle, UMass and St. Joe's may not entice you, but that group is stronger (tradition/current success/recent success) than you give them credit for.

The real problem the A-10 will have is trying to keep things from crumbling furhter. As I mentioned earlier, I can't see SLU staying in the A-10 if X, Butler and Dayton were to leave, although I guess adding additional midwest teams (Detroit/Loyola?) might be on their agenda. Who knows?

Do you have any sense that all these schools are anticipating each other jumping and that's why they're looking to jump too? Or is one or more of them independently itching to jump, regardless of what the other schools do?

Just curious.

SanityLost17 · February 09, 2013, 12:01:16 AM

Quote from: zvillehaze on February 08, 2013, 06:39:21 PM
Quote from: valpotx on February 08, 2013, 02:03:31 PM
I would rank the MVC as 1, Horizon as 2, and A-10 a distant third with what you list there. There is nothing to entice me about the A-10 without Butler, Xavier, SLU, Dayton, Temple, or Charlotte. The rest of those schools are just ok, outside of VCU. The MVC without Creighton is still better than the Horizon with the teams you list, but I would much prefer Oakland/Belmont/Evansville, as I don't think Murray State will leave with them having football...unless they drop to non-scholarship football.

Of the 11 A-10 teams that would be left, six are currently top 100 RPI and those 11 teams have an average RPI of 109. The Horizon has an average of 158, and that drops to 139 with the addition of Oakland, Murray and Belmont. VCU, SLU, Richmond, LaSalle, UMass and St. Joe's may not entice you, but that group is stronger (tradition/current success/recent success) than you give them credit for.

The real problem the A-10 will have is trying to keep things from crumbling furhter. As I mentioned earlier, I can't see SLU staying in the A-10 if X, Butler and Dayton were to leave, although I guess adding additional midwest teams (Detroit/Loyola?) might be on their agenda. Who knows?

Yes, those 11 teams do have an average RPI of 109, but they would not have an average RPI of 109 without the greater strength of schedule of having played Buter, Xavier, Dayton, Temple etc. Their RPI is better because they have those teams are on their schedule. If those teams leave and they can't replace them with strong teams, their average RPI would surely drop BIG as their conference SOS would no longer be what it is today. That said, I actually think those 11 teams would still be a slightly better basketball conference, but it would be very close.

The big question is how many teams will the A-10 lose? I am not sure the A-10 can keep all 11 of those teams. Will UMass head to the Big East? Will SLU head to the MVC if not invited to the Catholic 7? I mean, they could lose more teams, causing the Horizon to move ahead of them. Then what does the A-10 do... Do they try to raid the Horizon? Does the Horizon form a unified front and try to raid them instead? Do they try pick pocket the best of the mid-major basketball schools with recent success like George Mason, Vermont, Robert Morris, etc.?

The next question is should the HL have waited before deciding to add the 3 teams they chose? (if the rumors are true that is) I mean, perhaps all of this realignment could have meant that we get a much bigger fish than Oakland. Maybe we could have just went after Belmont and then waited for two more teams ready to leave a dying or severely wounded conference. Or are we moving to 12 with the expectation that we will eventually lose 1-2 teams to another conference?

Lots of hypotheticals out there. I just hope the Horizon is smart enough to navigate its way to the strongest possible outcome. For me, I think that means putting on a unified front. Advertise as a consistent 12th-14th rpi conference that is unified and ready to drop to a consistent 9th-11th area with the addition of the right 3 teams. AKA...instead of our teams leaving for "greener grass", lets just fertalize the damn lawn!

valpotx · February 09, 2013, 12:54:55 AM

Thanks for making my point before me

. I was assuming the drop in RPI from not being able to play the solid RPI programs within conference anymore. UMass would most likely be heading to the Big East as well, so another good program gone. VCU, LaSalle, Richmond, St. Joe's, etc, are just not as enticing without the programs I am predicting will leave in 1-2 years (Butler, Xavier, Dayton, SLU, UMass, Temple, Charlotte).

Duquesne, Fordham, GW, LaSalle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, and VCU. Decent, but not top 10 conference.

bbtds · February 09, 2013, 01:32:09 AM

According to the SLU board there is some doubt creeping into the minds of the presidents of the Catholic 7 schools and their "friends" that they will be able to recoup the monetary losses they will have when they leave all that money behind with the Big East Conference. Right now the TV networks are pushing for 12 schools and many within the Catholic 7 don't want that many. If those 7 sabotage their own monetary gains from the TV contracts the presidents are starting to feel what is the use of starting a new conference which will eventually just be another Big East with a monetary starting point well below what the Big East will have when they divorce. Big big decisions about money. Nothing new there.

National Conference Realignments

crusaderjoe