2018 NCAA Mens Basketball Bids, Seeding and Results

justducky · March 09, 2018, 03:11:44 PM

I've collected a few numbers from here and there to kick off discussion. Most are or were bubble teams we have previously discussed.

Kenpom Sagarin BracketMatrx Projected Seed
St. Mary's. 28 43. 11

Loyola 41 62 12

NC State 43 46 9

Rhode Island 47 51 8

Middle Tennessee. 49 64 ----- NIT

Boise St. 57 61 ------NIT

St Bonaventure 64 55 9

Buffalo 81 77 12

Valpo 150 151

Obviously I included NC State because they bought out the Loyola road game, have 11 losses , played 0 OOC true road games and in The Battle For Atlantis neutral site they lost 2 of 3 with one of them being to Northern Iowa.

I am not sure what Sagarin does but by memory I'm thinking Kenpom gives some credit for games with missing players. Loyola lost 3 games without MVC Player of the Year Clayton Custer. Will that effect their seeding?

vu72 · March 09, 2018, 03:33:21 PM

why would they seed to A-10 teams higher then Loyola. Doubt it would happen.

bigmosmithfan1 · March 09, 2018, 03:33:47 PM

QuoteWill that effect their seeding?

If the committee is to be believed, injuries don't impact "in or out" of the tourney, but once you're in, they do come into play in seeding (or at least they are supposed to be a topic of discussion), so maybe that bumps Loyola up a line?

(I know this was two decades ago now, but I remember the Sweet 16 year, we ended up a 13 seed when most of the projections had us as a 14 or a high 15, and that was because once we won our auto-bid, the Committee solicits information from your team for seeding consideration. I think they took into account that three of VU's losses occurred when Bryce was sidelined with an early-season injury and moved us up a line accordingly).

That said, I've always gotten the sense that once you get beyond the 10th or 11th seed, the committee doesn't spend a lot of time haggling between a 12 or a 13, a 13 vs. a 14, etc. I think they try and make sure a team isn't a 15 seed when they should be a 12 or 13, but they don't sweat teams being one line too low towards the bottom of the bracket.

justducky · March 09, 2018, 04:46:47 PM

Looks to me that St. Mary's (if they get in) could be a play in 11. The projected Bracketmatrix 11's are USC, Texas, St. Mary's, Alabama, Louisville, and Arizona St.

No way should Loyola stay on the 12 line. If they would move to the 11 the projected 6's include Florida (who they have played and beaten), Houston, Miami and Arkansas. If they move to the 10 line then the projected 7's are TCU, Texas A&M, Nevada and Seton Hall. I would love to see the committee find some way to match NC State and Loyola but a 10-7 or 8-9 matchup looks very unlikely.

justducky · March 10, 2018, 01:11:18 PM

With San Diego St beating Nevada the MWC will be a 2 bid league. Nevada should survive on the 8, 9, or 10 line and the winner of the game between the Aztecs and New Mexico will likely slip in as a 12. One of the 12 or 13 loss Big Boys will now have to settle for the NIT and I really feel for them.

In the A-10 Rhode Island will get a shot at avenging its recent 30 point loss to St Josephs while St Bonaventure and Davidson will lock horns again. An embarrassing loss by either the Rams or the Bonnies could drop them significantly in seeding but it looks like they could still be in. There is even a small chance that the A-10 could be a 3 bid conference.

talksalot · March 10, 2018, 02:31:12 PM

So... a few upsets today... including my Catamounts losing at home to the Retrievers...

Where does Loyola fit? You seed'em....remember, not everyone gets a 16 seed; which is too bad.

These tickets have been scanned...with the Conference RPI ranking

#23 America East   UM-Baltimore County   24-10   12-4   #2 seed
#30 Atlantic Sun   Lipscomb   23-9    10-4   #2 seed
#25 Big South   Radford   22-12   12-6   #2 seed
#12 Colonial   Charleston   26-7   14-4   #1 seed
#26 Horizon   Wright State   25-9   14-4   #2 seed
#18 MAAC   Iona   20-13   11-7   #4 Seed
#8 Valley   Loyola   28-5   15-3   #1 seed
#28 Northeast   LIU - Brooklyn   18-16   10-8   #4 Seed
#20 Ohio Valley   Murray State   26-5   16-2   #1 seed
#27 Patriot   Bucknell   25-9   16-2   #1 seed
#16 Southern   NC Greensboro   27-7   15-3   #1 seed
#17 Summit   South Dakota State   28-6   13-1   #1 seed
#31 MEAC   North Carolina Central   16-15   9-7   #6 seed


Games coming up some tomorrow...

#22 Big West   CS-Fullerton (17-11) vs UC Irvine (16-16)
#29 Southland   Southeastern Louisiana (19-10, 15-3) vs Stephen F Austin (23-6, 14-4)
#14 Western Athletic   Grand Canyon (21-10, 9-5) vs. New Mexico State (24-5, 12-2)
#15 C-USA   Marshall (22-10,12-6) vs Western Kentucky (23-9, 14-4)
#19 Big Sky   Eastern Washington (18-13, 13-5) vs Montana (23-7, 16-2)
#10 Mid American   Buffalo (24-8. 15-3) vs Toledo (22-10, 13-5)
#9 Mountain West   San Diego State (20-10, 11-7) vs New Mexico (18-14, 12-6)
#32 SWAC   Texas Southern (14-19, 12-6) vs Arkansas Pine Bluff (14-20, 12-6)
#11 A-10   Semis today: Davidson/St. Bonnie; winner gets Rhode Island ( 25-6, 15-3) tomorrow
Ivy   Semis Today: Yale/Penn; Winner gets Harvard (17-12, 12-2) tomorrow
SunBelt   GaSouthern/GaState winner plays UT-Arlington (20-12, 10-8) tomorrow

justducky · March 10, 2018, 03:08:16 PM

Not saying I would like it but I can imagine Ohio St being dropped to a #6 and Loyola as an 11 meeting up either in Pittsburgh on Thursday (15'th) or Detroit on Friday (16'th).

crusadermoe · March 10, 2018, 03:41:07 PM

Loyola has just 5 losses and the win vs. Florida stands to show their upside. Also a solid team with good balance and smart defense. They are definitely the best team for the MVC to send this year.

Every win in the NCAA brings us money. Go get a win!

talksalot · March 10, 2018, 07:20:38 PM

#23 America East UM-Baltimore County 24-10 12-4 #2 seed
#30 Atlantic Sun Lipscomb 23-9 10-4 #2 seed
#25 Big South Radford 22-12 12-6 #2 seed
#12 Colonial Charleston 26-7 14-4 #1 seed
#26 Horizon Wright State 25-9 14-4 #2 seed
#18 MAAC Iona 20-13 11-7 #4 Seed
#8 Valley Loyola 28-5 15-3 #1 seed
#28 Northeast LIU - Brooklyn 18-16 10-8 #4 Seed
#20 Ohio Valley Murray State 26-5 16-2 #1 seed
#27 Patriot Bucknell 25-9 16-2 #1 seed
#16 Southern NC Greensboro 27-7 15-3 #1 seed
#17 Summit South Dakota State 28-6 13-1 #1 seed
#31 MEAC North Carolina Central 16-15 9-7 #6 seed
#9 Mountain West - San Diego State (21-10, 11-7) #2 seed
#32 SWAC Texas Southern (15-19, 12-6)

Games coming up some tomorrow...

#22 Big West CS-Fullerton (17-11) vs UC Irvine (16-16)
#29 Southland Southeastern Louisiana (19-10, 15-3) vs Stephen F Austin (23-6, 14-4)
#14 Western Athletic Grand Canyon (21-10, 9-5) vs. New Mexico State (24-5, 12-2)
#15 C-USA Marshall (22-10,12-6) vs Western Kentucky (23-9, 14-4)
#19 Big Sky Eastern Washington (18-13, 13-5) vs Montana (23-7, 16-2)
#10 Mid American Buffalo (24-8. 15-3) vs Toledo (22-10, 13-5)

#11 A-10 Semis today: Davidson (20-11, 13-5) vs Rhode Island ( 25-6, 15-3) tomorrow, in Wash DC
#24 Ivy Semis Today: Penn (22-8, 12-2) vs Harvard (17-12, 12-2) tomorrow, in Philadelphia
#21 SunBelt GaState (21-10, 12-6) vs UT-Arlington (20-12, 10-8) tomorrow, in New Orleans

talksalot · March 10, 2018, 08:37:25 PM

#23 America East UM-Baltimore County 24-10 12-4 #2 seed
#30 Atlantic Sun Lipscomb 23-9 10-4 #2 seed
#25 Big South Radford 22-12 12-6 #2 seed
#12 Colonial Charleston 26-7 14-4 #1 seed
#26 Horizon Wright State 25-9 14-4 #2 seed
#18 MAAC Iona 20-13 11-7 #4 Seed
#8 Valley Loyola 28-5 15-3 #1 seed
#28 Northeast LIU - Brooklyn 18-16 10-8 #4 Seed
#20 Ohio Valley Murray State 26-5 16-2 #1 seed
#27 Patriot Bucknell 25-9 16-2 #1 seed
#16 Southern NC Greensboro 27-7 15-3 #1 seed
#17 Summit South Dakota State 28-6 13-1 #1 seed
#31 MEAC North Carolina Central 16-15 9-7 #6 seed
#9 Mountain West - San Diego State (21-10, 11-7) #2 seed
#32 SWAC Texas Southern (15-19, 12-6)
#10 Mid American Buffalo (25-8. 15-3)

Games coming up some tomorrow...

#22 Big West CS-Fullerton (17-11) vs UC Irvine (16-16)
#29 Southland Southeastern Louisiana (19-10, 15-3) vs Stephen F Austin (23-6, 14-4)
#14 Western Athletic Grand Canyon (21-10, 9-5) vs. New Mexico State (24-5, 12-2)
#15 C-USA Marshall (22-10,12-6) vs Western Kentucky (23-9, 14-4)
#19 Big Sky Eastern Washington (18-13, 13-5) vs Montana (23-7, 16-2)

justducky · March 10, 2018, 09:33:44 PM

Quote from: vu72 on March 09, 2018, 03:33:21 PMwhy would they seed to A-10 teams higher then Loyola. Doubt it would happen.

With the 82-70 Davidson win over St Bonaventure you may be right. Loyola could be a higher 11 with a slight chance at being a higher 10. I don't see the committee excluding the Bonnies even after including 19-15 Alabama, 18-13 Oklahoma, 19-14 Texas and a 20-11 Arizona St team that has lost 5 of its last 6. If Davidson were to win the auto bid by beating Rhode Island would St Bonaventure be the team that gets bumped? I don't think so but stupider things have happened.

talksalot · March 11, 2018, 07:32:20 AM

#23 America East UM-Baltimore County 24-10 12-4 #2 seed RPI 112 Q1 Record 1-3 - @Vermont
#30 Atlantic Sun Lipscomb 23-9 10-4 #2 seed RPI 101 Q1 Record 0-4
#25 Big South Radford 22-12 12-6 #2 seed RPI 128 Q1 Record 0-3
#12 Colonial Charleston 26-7 14-4 #1 seed RPI 56 Q1 Record 1-2 - Northeastern
#26 Horizon Wright State 25-9 14-4 #2 seed RPI 99 Q1 Record 1-2 - @Toledo
#18 MAAC Iona 20-13 11-7 #4 Seed - RPI 108 Q1 Record 0-3
#8 Valley Loyola 28-5 15-3 #1 seed - RPI 22 - Q1 Record 1-1 - @Florida
#28 Northeast LIU - Brooklyn 18-16 10-8 #4 Seed - RPI 232 Q1 Record 0-0
#20 Ohio Valley Murray State 26-5 16-2 #1 seed West Division, RPI 47, Q1 record 0-1
#27 Patriot Bucknell 25-9 16-2 #1 seed RPI 80, Q1 Record 0-4
#16 Southern NC Greensboro 27-7 15-3 #1 seed RPI 65, Q1 Record 1-1, @NC State
#17 Summit South Dakota State 28-6 13-1 #1 seed, RPI 37, Q1 Record 1-2, Neutral over Buffalo
#31 MEAC North Carolina Central 16-15 9-7 #6 seed, RPI 279, Q1 Record 0-0
#9 Mountain West - San Diego State (21-10, 11-7) #2 seed RPI 63, Q1 Record 3-3, Home over Gonzaga, Home & Neutral over Nevada
#32 SWAC Texas Southern (15-19, 12-6) #3 seed, RPI 222, Q1 Record 0-10
#10 Mid American Buffalo (25-8. 15-3) #1 seed - Eastern Division, RPI 26, Q1 Record 0-5
#22 Big West CS-Fullerton (18-11) #4 seed RPI 131, Q1 Record 0-2
#29 Southland Stephen F Austin (28-6, 14-4) #3 seed, RPI 104, Q1 Record 0-2
#14 Western Athletic New Mexico State (25-5, 12-2) #1 seed RPI 35, Q1 Record 1-2, Neutral over Miami
#15 C-USA Marshall (23-10,12-6) (24-10, 12-6) #4 seed, RPI 87, Q1 Record 3-2, Neutral Western Kentucky, @ Middle Tennessee, @ Toledo
#19 Big Sky Montana (24-7, 16-2) (26-7, 16-2) #1 Seed RPI 76, Q1 Record 0-1

and the Sunday Finals
#24 Ivy Yale Vs Penn (RPI 116 vs 183)
#11 A-10 Davidson (20-11, 13-5) vs Rhode Island (25-6, 15-3) - (RPI 59 vs 14)
#21 Sun Belt Texas Arlington (20-12, 10-8) vs. Georgia State (21-10, 12-6) (RPI 105 vs 132)

Valpo89 · March 11, 2018, 11:16:47 AM

Maybe it's because I'm getting older. Maybe it's because I've been "distracted" with family things like having two kids getting married this year (one was last Saturday) and my 13-year-old having weekly indoor soccer games.
But, without Valparaiso or IU or even Notre Dame and maybe Baylor not making the NCAA Tournament, I can't think of a year when I have been LESS excited to see the brackets revealed on Selection Sunday.
To try to digest any of this discussion above just does not interest me. I appreciate all the work you guys have done, I know it's not easy to look up at that stuff.
I'll watch the show and watch the games, but I'm just not jacked up for the tournament this year because all of "my" teams sucked this year.

vu72 · March 11, 2018, 11:29:34 AM

Quote from: Valpo89 on March 11, 2018, 11:16:47 AM
Maybe it's because I'm getting older. Maybe it's because I've been "distracted" with family things like having two kids getting married this year (one was last Saturday) and my 13-year-old having weekly indoor soccer games.
But, without Valparaiso or IU or even Notre Dame and maybe Baylor not making the NCAA Tournament, I can't think of a year when I have been LESS excited to see the brackets revealed on Selection Sunday.
To try to digest any of this discussion above just does not interest me. I appreciate all the work you guys have done, I know it's not easy to look up at that stuff.
I'll watch the show and watch the games, but I'm just not jacked up for the tournament this year because all of "my" teams sucked this year.

You forgot about Vandy. They aren't going to be in either!

a3uge · March 11, 2018, 11:33:29 AM

Loyola should hire prostitutes for their recruits if they want to earn that respect that moves them into that 11 seed.

justducky · March 11, 2018, 12:16:09 PM

Quote from: Valpo89 on March 11, 2018, 11:16:47 AMbut I'm just not jacked up for the tournament this year because all of "my" teams sucked this year.

There are so many similarities the 2018 Ramblers have with our 2016 situation and hopefully will have with our 18-19 and 19-20 versions that I have adopted them for this March only. Both are the "underdog" vs the "stacked deck". VU did and Loyola would have been assigned top NIT positions with a conference tourney loss. Now we are waiting on the match ups and seeding and expecting it to be below what the outright MVC 5 loss champion deserves. How they are treated this year should be a preview of what we can expect for our team going forward.

I am still thinking a 10 seed could be in the cards and a 9 wouldn't completely drop me to the floor. They SHOULD be considered a better team than many of those projected ahead of them.

justducky · March 11, 2018, 02:21:39 PM

Davidson wins and that could help Loyola. Rhode Island might drop to the Loyola line (probably not) but Davidson will be below them. I still think the Bonnies will be in but we will have to wait and see.

justducky · March 11, 2018, 08:46:29 PM

The 11 vs 6 match up of Loyola and Miami while acceptable could have been better. Has anybody watched enough Miami basketball to give us some insight?

As for our mid major NIT bound brethren, we have Northern Kentucky as a 7, Boise St as a 4, Middle Tennessee as a 3 and St Mary's as a 1.

Let me also mention San Diego St and St Bonaventure as 11's, Rhode Island and Nevada as 7's and Davidson, Murray St, S. Dakota St, and New Mexico St as 12's. Also Buffalo as a 13 and Wright St as a 14.

I didn't see any big surprises but I was expecting St Mary's to barely squeeze in. Did any of you spot something that really irked you?

VU2014 · March 11, 2018, 09:42:32 PM

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22727059/mid-major-coaches-say-new-quadrant-system-hurts-teams-ncaa-tournament-chances

Coaches: New quadrant system hurts mid-majors' tourney chances
Jeff Goodman
ESPN Insider

Middle Tennessee coach Kermit Davis and Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett, whose mid-major teams were snubbed on Sunday, told ESPN that the new quadrant system makes it more difficult for mid-majors to make the NCAA tournament.

"The committee sent a message to me that it's going to get tougher for everybody at our level to get an at-large with this new system," Davis said. "You've got to be perfect. We only have a few chances, and they are usually either on the road or on a neutral court, where the Power 5 schools have six to eight opportunities at home in front of their crowd."

"Look at the season that Saint Mary's had," he added. "They were in the top 20 a week ago. I think people would rather watch both of us in Dayton than two Power 5 teams that finished seventh or eighth in their leagues."

"One hundred percent," Bennett said about the quadrant system hurting mid-majors. "Explain to me how the quadrant system is scored? There's the problem. I don't know why they do anything. I will tell you that they won't tell you how they keep score."

.......

EddieCabot · March 12, 2018, 03:51:21 PM

Quote from: vu72 on March 09, 2018, 03:33:21 PM
why would they seed to A-10 teams higher then Loyola. Doubt it would happen.

The committee put URI (#7) and St. Bonny (#11) compared to the Loyola at 11. As vu72 points out, that just seems crazy to me.

FWalum · March 12, 2018, 06:31:01 PM

Quote from: EddieCabot on March 12, 2018, 03:51:21 PM
Quote from: vu72 on March 09, 2018, 03:33:21 PM
why would they seed to A-10 teams higher then Loyola. Doubt it would happen.

The committee put URI (#7) and St. Bonny (#11) compared to the Loyola at 11. As vu72 points out, that just seems crazy to me.

RPI: Loyola #22 Miami #28
AP: Miami #22 Loyola #27
Coaches Poll: Miami #25 Loyola #28
Seeding: Miami 6 Loyola 11
Based on these 3 metrics, how in the h3!! is Miami a 6 seed and Loyola an 11.

RPI: Loyola #22 Butler #44
AP: Loyola #27 Butler#32
Coaches Poll: Loyola #28 Butler#41
How in h3!! is Butler a 10 seed and Loyola an 11. Does every conference that Valpo is a member of get screwed... I think that there is a consensus that Loyola is a top 30 team, should have been absolutely no lower than a 9 seed. Did any commentator yesterday say anything about some of the absolutely whacky seeding in this years bracket??? I did not hear a peep.

The answer to the question about why the conference should schedule tougher OOC games seems to be answered by that fact that this year the ONLY thing that the committee seemed to be concerned about was schedule strength. They certainly didn't go by RPI or the AP poll or how the coaches ranked teams. They stuck a bunch of teams in the tournament that played tough schedules and gave them higher seeds. Now I know why the CBS Sports Network nicknamed today's day long CIT broadcast Mid-Major Monday... because Mid-Majors can all but kiss the NCAA tournament goodbye. Now we have our own tournament and our own day.... Yippee!

zvillehaze · March 12, 2018, 09:57:46 PM

Quote from: FWalum on March 12, 2018, 06:31:01 PM
Quote from: EddieCabot on March 12, 2018, 03:51:21 PM
Quote from: vu72 on March 09, 2018, 03:33:21 PM
why would they seed to A-10 teams higher then Loyola. Doubt it would happen.

The committee put URI (#7) and St. Bonny (#11) compared to the Loyola at 11. As vu72 points out, that just seems crazy to me.
RPI: Loyola #22 Miami #28
AP: Miami #22 Loyola #27
Coaches Poll: Miami #25 Loyola #28
Seeding: Miami 6 Loyola 11
Based on these 3 metrics, how in the h3!! is Miami a 6 seed and Loyola an 11.

RPI: Loyola #22 Butler #44
AP: Loyola #27 Butler#32
Coaches Poll: Loyola #28 Butler#41
How in h3!! is Butler a 10 seed and Loyola an 11. Does every conference that Valpo is a member of get screwed... I think that there is a consensus that Loyola is a top 30 team, should have been absolutely no lower than a 9 seed. Did any commentator yesterday say anything about some of the absolutely whacky seeding in this years bracket??? I did not hear a peep.

The answer to the question about why the conference should schedule tougher OOC games seems to be answered by that fact that this year the ONLY thing that the committee seemed to be concerned about was schedule strength. They certainly didn't go by RPI or the AP poll or how the coaches ranked teams. They stuck a bunch of teams in the tournament that played tough schedules and gave them higher seeds. Now I know why the CBS Sports Network nicknamed today's day long CIT broadcast Mid-Major Monday... because Mid-Majors can all but kiss the NCAA tournament goodbye. Now we have our own tournament and our own day.... Yippee!

It does seem as if the criteria for selection keeps moving. I realize that the RPI (along with every other metric) isn't perfect, but at some point, I hope the NCAA decides on a rating system to rely upon and take all judgement out the equation.

There will always be a disconnect between the "win based" ratings (RPI) and the "predictive" ratings (Kenpom, BPI, Sagarin). I lean towards rewarding wins & losses, but it does create strange situations. Arizona has the 5th best odds to win the tourney, despite being a 4 seed. FW didn't think Butler deserved a 10 seed, yet they'll be a Vegas favorite over 7 seed Arkansas. I don't know the answer, but agree that the current system is arbitrary and needs to be improved.

justducky · March 13, 2018, 10:40:53 PM

St Bonaventure with a 7 point win over UCLA. Good for them.

justducky · March 15, 2018, 11:19:29 PM

The Buffalo beatdown of Arizona (21 point margin) was a real pleasure to watch. It couldn't happen to a finer program!

Buffalo was so unbelievably quick by comparison. Can they beat Kentucky?

Quote from: zvillehaze on March 12, 2018, 09:57:46 PMArizona has the 5th best odds to win the tourney, despite being a 4 seed.

Yup! All they had to do was boot the little guys out of their way.

valpopal · March 16, 2018, 06:37:01 PM

Does everybody remember when we thought we had a good chance to get Jevon Carter, especially since he was Keith's cousin, but then West Virginia became the only major team to recruit him and he went there? I have enjoyed watching all his success, on and off the court (Academic All-America of the Year), but I always wonder what it would have been like to have him and Alec on the court together at Valpo in their three overlapping years.