MVC Hoops: 2018-19

[VUGrad1314]

SIU enrollment continues in free fall

https://thesouthern.com/news/local/siu/despite-biggest-enrollment-dip-yet-siuc-chancellor-predicts-rebound/article_42dcccf9-f1a4-531b-9e12-10ae15b0ec5f.html#comments

Clearly, there is an over abundance of traditional universities in the United States. If SIU were a for-profit business, they would have closed their doors by now. The same for Chicago State. Instead, IL taxpayers continue to be forced to fund what has become an irreversible boondoggle. The day is coming when tax rates will reach the tipping point, the public will say no more, banks will stop loaning, bonds won't be purchased, and everything will come crashing down.

This is alarming for the future of the MVC The conference is much better when SIU is good and even Murray State our leading on deck school is having issues with enrollment. The way forward for the conference may be to simply continue to play the Loyola lottery and take a chance on a big enrollment big endowment school

[VU2014]

SIU enrollment continues in free fall

https://thesouthern.com/news/local/siu/despite-biggest-enrollment-dip-yet-siuc-chancellor-predicts-rebound/article_42dcccf9-f1a4-531b-9e12-10ae15b0ec5f.html#comments

Clearly, there is an over abundance of traditional universities in the United States. If SIU were a for-profit business, they would have closed their doors by now. The same for Chicago State. Instead, IL taxpayers continue to be forced to fund what has become an irreversible boondoggle. The day is coming when tax rates will reach the tipping point, the public will say no more, banks will stop loaning, bonds won't be purchased, and everything will come crashing down.

It's actually not the banks that are dishing out most of the loans. It's the Federal government that is possibly creating a bubble. There is a direct correlation between the increased student loans back by the government and rapid rise in tuition prices. College isn't for everyone but it's become common place to pressure 17-18 year old kids to take out this massive student loans to pursue a education. I think the trade schools and community colleges are under utilized in this country.

[vu84v2]

SIU enrollment continues in free fall

https://thesouthern.com/news/local/siu/despite-biggest-enrollment-dip-yet-siuc-chancellor-predicts-rebound/article_42dcccf9-f1a4-531b-9e12-10ae15b0ec5f.html#comments

Clearly, there is an over abundance of traditional universities in the United States. If SIU were a for-profit business, they would have closed their doors by now. The same for Chicago State. Instead, IL taxpayers continue to be forced to fund what has become an irreversible boondoggle. The day is coming when tax rates will reach the tipping point, the public will say no more, banks will stop loaning, bonds won't be purchased, and everything will come crashing down.

1133 incoming Freshmen undergraduates? I don't know what is more alarming, that number or the response of SIU's chancellor that "we're on the right track and things will right themselves soon."

I am not sure that I agree with the degree of there being an overabundance of traditional universities as you seem to argue. Some schools are reporting record numbers of incoming Freshmen (e.g., Marquette) while others seem to ride the growth opportunities afforded to them by poorly run adjacent states (i.e. Iowa and Iowa State seem to thrive at the expense of Illinois public universities). Thus, I would argue that it is more of a competitive environment in which strong players work to increase market share and, thus, weaker players decline or die. Illinois' poorly run state government has resulted in fewer resources that allow its state universities to compete.

A few other notes on the weak Illinois state university system (other than the beyond awful Chicago State):
-Eastern Illinois reported a 24.5% increase in year-over-year new Freshmen enrollment. Wow!  That sounds great - but it is highly misleading. 24.5% represents a 155 student year-over-year increase - meaning that EIU's total new Freshmen population is 775 students out of an undergraduate student population of about 6000. That looks like a university in serious decline.
-Western Illinois has not reported Fall 2018 enrollment, but they projected a 14% drop in total enrollment versus Fall 2017 after a 9% drop in total enrollment from Fall 2016 to Fall 2017.

[wh]

SIU enrollment continues in free fall

https://thesouthern.com/news/local/siu/despite-biggest-enrollment-dip-yet-siuc-chancellor-predicts-rebound/article_42dcccf9-f1a4-531b-9e12-10ae15b0ec5f.html#comments

Clearly, there is an over abundance of traditional universities in the United States. If SIU were a for-profit business, they would have closed their doors by now. The same for Chicago State. Instead, IL taxpayers continue to be forced to fund what has become an irreversible boondoggle. The day is coming when tax rates will reach the tipping point, the public will say no more, banks will stop loaning, bonds won't be purchased, and everything will come crashing down.

1133 incoming Freshmen undergraduates? I don't know what is more alarming, that number or the response of SIU's chancellor that "we're on the right track and things will right themselves soon."

I am not sure that I agree with the degree of there being an overabundance of traditional universities as you seem to argue. Some schools are reporting record numbers of incoming Freshmen (e.g., Marquette) while others seem to ride the growth opportunities afforded to them by poorly run adjacent states (i.e. Iowa and Iowa State seem to thrive at the expense of Illinois public universities). Thus, I would argue that it is more of a competitive environment in which strong players work to increase market share and, thus, weaker players decline or die. Illinois' poorly run state government has resulted in fewer resources that allow its state universities to compete.

A few other notes on the weak Illinois state university system (other than the beyond awful Chicago State):
-Eastern Illinois reported a 24.5% increase in year-over-year new Freshmen enrollment. Wow!  That sounds great - but it is highly misleading. 24.5% represents a 155 student year-over-year increase - meaning that EIU's total new Freshmen population is 775 students out of an undergraduate student population of about 6000. That looks like a university in serious decline.
-Western Illinois has not reported Fall 2018 enrollment, but they projected a 14% drop in total enrollment versus Fall 2017 after a 9% drop in total enrollment from Fall 2016 to Fall 2017.

It's more than simply a game of musical chairs, although that's a part:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/us-colleges-are-facing-a-demographic-and-existential_us_59511619e4b0326c0a8d09e9

[crusader05]

This is off topic but I think Illinois's bloated state system in similar to Indiana's massive amount of small private colleges al la Trine or St. Joes.  Only sustainable with stable input. It's said to see any school systems close but like anything they grow to meet demand and when demand shrinks they will most likely shrink. To say that it's related to specifically Illinois' governance is missing that it's happening elsewhere There is going to be a lot of realignment for colleges in the next 5-10 years (unless another recession pops up, in which case watch graduate enrollments soar again) and although individual and state differences matter at the margins. I think this is a behemoth that will not be easily avoided.

There are rumors Ivy Tech in Indiana is in deep trouble and even Purdue is having trouble maintaining all of it's satellite campus but have also invested so much money in them over the years there is no easy answer.

[wh]

1133 incoming Freshmen undergraduates? I don't know what is more alarming, that number or the response of SIU's chancellor that "we're on the right track and things will right themselves soon."

Or, how about this one:

The enrollment decline at the Carbondale campus was expected, Chancellor Carlo Montemagno said in a Tuesday news release, as the graduating senior class was replaced by a much smaller group of freshmen.

That's kind of like my wife asking me why we received an overdraft notice on our checking account, and I say it's because we withdrew more than we deposited. 

[VUGrad1314]

Porter Moser interview with Doug Gottlieb

https://foxsportsradio.iheart.com/content/2018-09-05-porter-moser-will-sing-take-me-out-to-the-ballgame-at-wrigley/

[VUGrad1314]

Illinois State and Loyola figure very prominently among key mid-major matchups.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2018/9/6/17827774/ncaa-tournament-2019-at-large-mid-major-loyola-chicago-nevada-byu-gonzaga

[VU2014]

Another redbird in trouble with the law.

https://twitter.com/WZND/status/1039873190238060544

[VULB#62]

There's a whole string already posted on this in the MVC category - Around the Valley

http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=3235.0

You might want to post the Twitter link there and delete it here.

[IrishDawg]

Another redbird in trouble with the law.

https://twitter.com/WZND/status/1039873190238060544

This is one of the few benefits of being in a mid-major league and being able to operate in relative obscurity.  Other than those in the MVC, few, if anyone will know about these several incidents that he's been involved in and allowed to continue to play.  I can't imagine Dan Muller actually kicking his best player off the team, because that would basically destroy his chances of making the NCAA tournament.

Glad that Valpo, if anything, swings too far the other way on off-the-court player issues.

[FieldGoodie05]

Another redbird in trouble with the law.

https://twitter.com/WZND/status/1039873190238060544

This is one of the few benefits of being in a mid-major league and being able to operate in relative obscurity.  Other than those in the MVC, few, if anyone will know about these several incidents that he's been involved in and allowed to continue to play.  I can't imagine Dan Muller actually kicking his best player off the team, because that would basically destroy his chances of making the NCAA tournament.

Glad that Valpo, if anything, swings too far the other way on off-the-court player issues.

Good points.  If memory serves, you are a Butler fan?  Has there been instances with Butler (post HL days) in where they had to discipline a player because it became too big of a news story?

[IrishDawg]

Another redbird in trouble with the law.

https://twitter.com/WZND/status/1039873190238060544

This is one of the few benefits of being in a mid-major league and being able to operate in relative obscurity.  Other than those in the MVC, few, if anyone will know about these several incidents that he's been involved in and allowed to continue to play.  I can't imagine Dan Muller actually kicking his best player off the team, because that would basically destroy his chances of making the NCAA tournament.

Glad that Valpo, if anything, swings too far the other way on off-the-court player issues.

Good points.  If memory serves, you are a Butler fan?  Has there been instances with Butler (post HL days) in where they had to discipline a player because it became too big of a news story?

Correct, I am a Butler fan.  The only instance of significant discipline post HL days is when they kicked Chrishawn Hopkins (who was assumed to at least play major minutes that year) off the team before the 2012-13 season when they were in the A-10.  He shot someone in the neck with a pellet gun from his dorm room.  The story didn't come out until after they'd already kicked him out of school, so doesn't really fit the criteria given.  Butler's suspended players for having a water balloon fight in the hotel since they've been in the Big East, so while I know Butler's not perfect by any means, there definitely hasn't been a player approaching Yarbrough's continued transgressions.

[wh]

Another redbird in trouble with the law.

https://twitter.com/WZND/status/1039873190238060544

This is one of the few benefits of being in a mid-major league and being able to operate in relative obscurity.  Other than those in the MVC, few, if anyone will know about these several incidents that he's been involved in and allowed to continue to play.  I can't imagine Dan Muller actually kicking his best player off the team, because that would basically destroy his chances of making the NCAA tournament.

Glad that Valpo, if anything, swings too far the other way on off-the-court player issues.

Good points.  If memory serves, you are a Butler fan?  Has there been instances with Butler (post HL days) in where they had to discipline a player because it became too big of a news story?

Correct, I am a Butler fan.  The only instance of significant discipline post HL days is when they kicked Chrishawn Hopkins (who was assumed to at least play major minutes that year) off the team before the 2012-13 season when they were in the A-10.  He shot someone in the neck with a pellet gun from his dorm room.  The story didn't come out until after they'd already kicked him out of school, so doesn't really fit the criteria given.  Butler's suspended players for having a water balloon fight in the hotel since they've been in the Big East, so while I know Butler's not perfect by any means, there definitely hasn't been a player approaching Yarbrough's continued transgressions.

I feel strongly that Butler would remain true to it's standards for student athlete behavior, irrespective of conference affiliation or external pressures.

[VU2014]

It's a bummer to hear Yarbrough news. I don't know how they can't suspend him for a good chunk of games. We all should want our conference-mates to kill in OOC.

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1040315893262086145

[EddieCabot]

That's a great chart, VU2014.  It really shows how teams 2 through 10 were essentially equal ... and also illustrates that it won't take a huge improvement for Valpo to move up the MVC rankings.

[VUGrad1314]

Missouri State has gotten a commitment from the #35 overall PG in the nation for the 2019 class. They are going to be really good really soon.

[VU2014]

Missouri State has gotten a commitment from the #35 overall PG in the nation for the 2019 class. They are going to be really good really soon.

Might take them out of the running for Phillip Russell (Missouri 2020 PG recruit). They have been involved in his recruitment. He's one of the 2020 PGs that we offered.

[VUGrad1314]

If it does then that's only good news for us right?  I don't fault Missouri State at all for potentially jumping on this opportunity even if it comes at the expense of a potential impact recruit at the same position later. Get your good players where you can when you can. If we can get Russell so much the better for us and for the MVC as a whole.

[VU2014]

A few big commitments for Bradley and Loyola today. Let's hope we land our top 2019 target.

[VU2014]

Yarborough is practicing with the team. It could be a sign he's going to play this season.

https://twitter.com/Pg_Benson/status/1044299220893802501

[wh]

Yarborough is practicing with the team. It could be a sign he's going to play this season.

https://twitter.com/Pg_Benson/status/1044299220893802501

Of course he is. He will sit out a limited number of meaningless OOC games despite all the crap he pulled, then return a more contrite, wiser soul, grateful for the second chance. My 1st grade grandson could have predicted it. That compares to Jubril being suspended for the last 25 games 2 years ago for allowing a no good bum to write a paper for him, and combined with AP's season-ending injury killed our chances of going to the Dance. I also recall after it was announced that we were joining the MVC reading message board after board and feeling positive vibes from everywhere, except, Illinois State, whose idiot fans attributed all of our success to a lucky get named Alec Peters. F that entire program and their fan base. May the total hypocrisy of what they are about to do with their big f'in star blow up in their f'in face.

[VUGrad1314]

I can't believe I'm saying this with how vocal I've been about Valpo's home schedule: maybe we should cut our schedule makers a bit of slack. UNI's schedule is out and the home slate is TERRIBLE. Like barely better than ours if at all.

http://unipanthers.com/news/2018/10/2/mens-basketball-releases-non-conference-schedule.aspx

[VU2014]

I can't believe I'm saying this with how vocal I've been about Valpo's home schedule: maybe we should cut our schedule makers a bit of slack. UNI's schedule is out and the home slate is TERRIBLE. Like barely better than ours if at all.

http://unipanthers.com/news/2018/10/2/mens-basketball-releases-non-conference-schedule.aspx

Not great but they've had some awesome home games in the past like getting Xavier last year. Their HC has built up some connections over the years. Unfortunately we don't have a GCU coming here this season. Ball State is out best home game. A good opponent but not a great one. either way I'll be making my way to the ARC for that game.