MVC Hoops: 2018-19

[IrishDawg]

Interesting insight into the style of play/coaching/reffing in the MVC. I copy pasted this from the MVCFan board.

Re: Official 2018-19 MVCfans.com Prediction - 7th Place
Postby Drakey » October 15th, 2018, 8:07 am
Fortunately the style of play in the Valley over the last several yeas has improved to the point of being watchable. I was fearful at one point that UNI's success was going to doom the Valley to a future of 52-49 games. We had literally become the most unwatchable basketball conference in the country. Fortunately we got some new coaches who didn't believe in the grab, stop and flop philosophy and we started to see some entertaining basketball again. This along with some officiating changes has helped make Valley Basketball enjoyable again. Fortunately for the league and unfortunately for UNI, as other schools have hired coaches who quit letting UNI dictate the tempo of the game, and the officials quit allowing defenders to maul offensive players, UNI's effectiveness has decreased. So for me it is not fear or jealousy, just hopefulness.
Last edited by Drakey on October 15th, 2018, 9:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
Drakey
MVC starter
MVC starter

Posts: 394
Joined: August 6th, 2010, 9:21 am

I think the "watchability" of the league's games had more to do with the competitive nature of the games and league standings (and maybe more specifically with Drake last year itself) outside of Loyola than the actual tempo of the games.  The MVC was ranked 28/32 conferences in the number of possessions during conference games.  But if you look at the history of the league, it's always been a slog in conference play.  In the history of kenpom, the league has never been ranked in the top 20 in pace, and the last few years in terms of league play, has ranked at or near the bottom in offensive efficiency (30/32 last year, 27th the year before and 32nd the year before that and hasn't ranked in the top 10 in offensive efficiency since the 12-13 season) the last few years.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, as despite the NBA being a far more highly paced and highly skilled league I still prefer the collegiate game, but the numbers don't agree with the poster from the MVC board.

Last 10 years of pace of play in the MVC and its NCAA rank:
2018: 66.6 possessions per conference game (28th)
2017: 66.7 (30th)
2016: 66.7 (29th) - NCAA reduced shot clock to 30 seconds
2015: 60.0 (32nd)
2014: 63.4 (30th)
2013: 64.3 (25th)
2012: 65.2 (21st)
2011: 63.2 (30th)
2010: 63.3 (31st)
2009: 62.9 (29th)

[VU2014]

Yeah the Valley always seems to be League where every opposing team really grinds each other out and turns into a half court game. The way Horizon League teams play compared to Valley teams is pretty striking. And so is the officiating... but I'll bite my tongue about that. I felt like Valpo was one of the only programs in the HL that played a Valley style of defense which always benefited us because we could get stops. I also thought we had the best coach for a while in that league. We'd kill to have Vashil type big man in the MVC right now. I feel like Jay & Smits would be more effective in the HL than they will be in the Valley. Smits can definitely put points on the board but he'll give up his fair share. It's not enough to just have size on defense.

It's almost a must to have great guard play in the MVC to have any success.

They are no easy wins in this league. Every night the staff needs to prepare and the players need to bring it. The coaching is top notch in this league for a mid major conference.

[EddieCabot]

ISUb is appealing to the NCAA to get Cooper Neese a whole season of eligibility.

https://twitter.com/tribstarsports/status/1047692554823598080

Saw on Twitter today that the NCAA denied this appeal.  Not surprising.

[VUGrad1314]

Interesting insight into the style of play/coaching/reffing in the MVC. I copy pasted this from the MVCFan board.

Re: Official 2018-19 MVCfans.com Prediction - 7th Place Postby Drakey » October 15th, 2018, 8:07 am Fortunately the style of play in the Valley over the last several yeas has improved to the point of being watchable. I was fearful at one point that UNI's success was going to doom the Valley to a future of 52-49 games. We had literally become the most unwatchable basketball conference in the country. Fortunately we got some new coaches who didn't believe in the grab, stop and flop philosophy and we started to see some entertaining basketball again. This along with some officiating changes has helped make Valley Basketball enjoyable again. Fortunately for the league and unfortunately for UNI, as other schools have hired coaches who quit letting UNI dictate the tempo of the game, and the officials quit allowing defenders to maul offensive players, UNI's effectiveness has decreased. So for me it is not fear or jealousy, just hopefulness. Last edited by Drakey on October 15th, 2018, 9:54 am, edited 2 times in total. Drakey MVC starter MVC starter Posts: 394 Joined: August 6th, 2010, 9:21 am

I think the "watchability" of the league's games had more to do with the competitive nature of the games and league standings (and maybe more specifically with Drake last year itself) outside of Loyola than the actual tempo of the games.  The MVC was ranked 28/32 conferences in the number of possessions during conference games.  But if you look at the history of the league, it's always been a slog in conference play.  In the history of kenpom, the league has never been ranked in the top 20 in pace, and the last few years in terms of league play, has ranked at or near the bottom in offensive efficiency (30/32 last year, 27th the year before and 32nd the year before that and hasn't ranked in the top 10 in offensive efficiency since the 12-13 season) the last few years. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, as despite the NBA being a far more highly paced and highly skilled league I still prefer the collegiate game, but the numbers don't agree with the poster from the MVC board. Last 10 years of pace of play in the MVC and its NCAA rank: 2018: 66.6 possessions per conference game (28th) 2017: 66.7 (30th) 2016: 66.7 (29th) - NCAA reduced shot clock to 30 seconds 2015: 60.0 (32nd) 2014: 63.4 (30th) 2013: 64.3 (25th) 2012: 65.2 (21st) 2011: 63.2 (30th) 2010: 63.3 (31st) 2009: 62.9 (29th)

Anyone decrying MVC basketball as "unwatchable" needs to be careful what they wish for. It is that slow sloggy grind it out defense first few possessions control the clock style that makes this such a fun competitive  and entertaining league and is in my opinion the most salient reason why the MVC is so successful in March. As Virginia Wisconsin St Mary's  the MVC in general  and our NIT Quarterfinal victory over St Mary's have  shown a slow-paced game that is well-played can be downright exhilarating. And the teams that excel playing that style are generally highly successful.

[IrishDawg]

Anyone decrying MVC basketball as "unwatchable" needs to be careful what they wish for. It is that slow sloggy grind it out defense first few possessions control the clock style that makes this such a fun competitive  and entertaining league and is in my opinion the most salient reason why the MVC is so successful in March. As Virginia Wisconsin St Mary's  the MVC in general  and our NIT Quarterfinal victory over St Mary's have  shown a slow-paced game that is well-played can be downright exhilarating. And the teams that excel playing that style are generally highly successful.

I do think if the MVC was interested in bringing in the casual fan, then yes, a faster pace would draw more eyes to the TV, but I think the cost/benefit of doing so if it were to affect tourney shares that the league would win, then it likely wouldn't be worth it. 

It also depends on what you term as being "well played".  The Valpo-St. Mary's game was well played on defense by Valpo, but offensively, it was an average game in terms of efficiency by Valpo, and a horrible game by St. Mary's.  As a Valpo fan, absolutely it's exciting as they got to then go play at MSG and get a win at home, but in terms of a casual fan, watching St. Mary's put up 13 points in the 2nd half as they steadily fall further and further behind, that's not a well played game nor is it exhilarating to watch.  I'm not saying that Valpo or its fans should feel bad about it, because the objective is to win the game, but if you're not a fan of Valpo that night or a basketball junkie who's going to watch the game anyway, that's not a fun watch.

[VUGrad1314]

Looks like the MWC-A10 challenge is happening. When will the MVC get the respect it so richly deserves? I just don't understand why we can't make this a tripartite agreement with us involved and every school guaranteed one home game on an alternating basis.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-ssdsu-basketball-atlantic-10-challenge-20181016-story.html

[VULB#62]

Case of MMs cutting off their noses to spite their faces. 1314, this would have been a great chance for 3 great conferences to do a trifecta and show what MM basketball is all about PLUS give all three conference participants two good RPI games to add to their OOC resumes.

This is what i was alluding to when i stated that MMs had to conspire to tip the scale in their direction. Why weren't they listening to me? Oh, right. I forgot where my brilliant theorys are posted 

[vu72]

Case of MMs cutting off their noses to spite their faces. 1314, this would have been a great chance for 3 great conferences to do a trifecta and show what MM basketball is all about PLUS give all three conference participants two good RPI games to add to their OOC resumes.

I really think the answer for the Valley is to partner with the AAC.  Higher profile teams and still looking for recognition.

[VULB#62]

But would the AAC think along the same lines?

Why not make it a 4-way?  Three great RPI games in the OOC.

[IrishDawg]

But would the AAC think along the same lines?

Why not make it a 4-way?  Three great RPI games in the OOC.

Doubtful - even though this is a football story, the AAC doesn't consider itself a mid-major league: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/aac-power-six-push-ucf-title-claim-irritate-at-least-some-group-of-five-brethren/

[VUGrad1314]

Because it's really not. It's a hybrid league in its own class. There are too many major programs in that conference for it to be called "mid-major" but too many mids for it to rightly be called a power league. That's why the P5 won't do challenges with them, and they won't enter into agreements with the MVC\MWC\A10 because that would only reinforce the perception that they are beneath the P5.

[VUGrad1314]

Loyola just misses the AP Top 25... Such disrespect...

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25053949/kansas-leads-kentucky-ap-preseason-college-hoops-poll

[VULB#62]

Loyola at #26 got 162 points - just 3 behind #25 Washington at 165.  And Wichita State didn't even get one (1) point while Butler got six (6).

[VUGrad1314]

It just feels like the MVC doesn't matter to national pundits until we make ourselves matter. Guess it's back to work again this year to surprise more folks who simply aren't paying attention. It does feel good to be in a conference where we might play ranked teams at some point during the conference season again.

[FieldGoodie05]

Loyola just misses the AP Top 25... Such disrespect...

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25053949/kansas-leads-kentucky-ap-preseason-college-hoops-poll

They don't deserve Top 25 voting because of 1-season in which they lose a good chunk of productivity (graduation).  I don't even think they can earn Top 35 by the time the season is over.  But I welcome them earning it because that is good for all.  I also don't think the MVC deserves anything until they get a pecking order established.  Why would a voting system take a shot on a team that has exactly 1-year of winning under their belt in decades??  The MVC is wide wide wide open for the #1 spot and until there is a clear #1/#2 every year no outside voting will give us the benefit of the doubt.  No one likes forecasting into conferences with even level competition #1 thru #4 IMO.  So why would they stick their neck out on Loyola the 1 timers?

[VULB#62]

I have to agree, Goodie.  LUC was lucky to receive the votes they got losing 3 contributors going into 18-19.

The entire Top 25 was P-5+BE. After that, besides #26 Loyola, the only MM on the entire list were #37 Buffalo, #51 Marshall and #52 Davidson. Over 50 teams received votes but only 4 were MM. the rest were P5+BE.

[EddieCabot]

I have to agree, Goodie.  LUC was lucky to receive the votes they got losing 3 contributors going into 18-19.

The entire Top 25 was P-5+BE. After that, besides #26 Loyola, the only MM on the entire list were #37 Buffalo, #51 Marshall and #52 Davidson. Over 50 teams received votes but only 4 were MM. the rest were P5+BE.

#3 Gonzaga, #7 Nevada and #41 San Diego State.  Also a couple AAC schools included.

Strangest ranking to me is Notre Dame at #33.  They were an NIT team last season and lose Bonzie Colson, Matt Ferrell and Martinas Geben to graduation.

[IrishDawg]

#3 Gonzaga, #7 Nevada and #41 San Diego State.  Also a couple AAC schools included.

Strangest ranking to me is Notre Dame at #33.  They were an NIT team last season and lose Bonzie Colson, Matt Ferrell and Martinas Geben to graduation.

Kenpom agrees with you (#59), but you combine Mike Brey with a top 15 recruiting class, and some decent guys coming back (Pflueger, Gibbs, Harvey, Mooney), voters go for who they know.

[VUGrad1314]

Loyola just misses the AP Top 25... Such disrespect... http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25053949/kansas-leads-kentucky-ap-preseason-college-hoops-poll

They don't deserve Top 25 voting because of 1-season in which they lose a good chunk of productivity (graduation).  I don't even think they can earn Top 35 by the time the season is over.  But I welcome them earning it because that is good for all.  I also don't think the MVC deserves anything until they get a pecking order established.  Why would a voting system take a shot on a team that has exactly 1-year of winning under their belt in decades? ?  The MVC is wide wide wide open for the #1 spot and until there is a clear #1/#2 every year no outside voting will give us the benefit of the doubt.  No one likes forecasting into conferences with even level competition #1 thru #4 IMO.  So why would they stick their neck out on Loyola the 1 timers?

They haven't lost all that much. They return 3 of their top 5 players and  have a ready replacement for Richardson in Williamson  an impact transfer becoming eligible in Uguak and a ton of freshman talent. Meanwhile  3 teams Loyola beat last year are in the top 12 including a Nevada team that hadn't won a tournament game since 2007 prior to last year. Returning talent or not they're likely to struggle to live up to that lofty ranking. But I'm not even asking for that much. I'm asking why Loyola can't have the nod over LSU (last appearance 2015 Last win 2009) or Washington (last appearance 2011) as a token of respect for what they've done and are building especially since they return the majority of their production.

[vu72]

They haven't lost all that much.

And to think our crappy team lost to them late in the season by 9 and we were within 3 with 4 minutes to go!  First game Nov 1!!   

[VUGrad1314]

They haven't lost all that much.

And to think our crappy team lost to them late in the season by 9 and we were within 3 with 4 minutes to go!  First game Nov 1!!   

Excellent point. Last year's team  was the worst Valpo team in years and yet they found themselves in the thick of many MVC matchups last year. With what should be a better roster, maybe those of us  making more conservative prognostications (myself included) could stand to be more optimistic. The trouble is, this league is so deep and good that it's hard to be overly aggressive. I believe strongly  that seven teams in the MVC are more talented than they were last year. Two others (Missouri State and Evansville) lost a lot of talent but I believe they've gained significantly in the coaching department. The only team I'm not sure what to make of is Drake but I believe they're on very good footing.

[VULB#62]

The entire Top 25 was P-5+BE. After that, besides #26 Loyola, the only MM on the entire list were #37 Buffalo, #51 Marshall and #52 Davidson. Over 50 teams received votes but only 4 were MM. the rest were P5+BE.

#3 Gonzaga, #7 Nevada and #41 San Diego State.  Also a couple AAC schools included.

Yeah, you're right. I skimmed really quickly and missed SDSU and Nevada from the MWC.  But judging from past concensus on this board, Gonzaga is really a de facto Non--MM.  And I also have seen comments on our board that kinda lumped the AAC schools in with P5+BE. So in terms of what we can consider "true MMs," there is still a significant under representation in this particular poll. And alluding to 1314's lack of respect for the MVC comment below, in my mind, that is squarely reflected in Nevada being at #7 while LUC is placed way down at #26.

[IrishDawg]

They haven't lost all that much. They return 3 of their top 5 players and  have a ready replacement for Richardson in Williamson  an impact transfer becoming eligible in Uguak and a ton of freshman talent. Meanwhile  3 teams Loyola beat last year are in the top 12 including a Nevada team that hadn't won a tournament game since 2007 prior to last year. Returning talent or not they're likely to struggle to live up to that lofty ranking. But I'm not even asking for that much. I'm asking why Loyola can't have the nod over LSU (last appearance 2015 Last win 2009) or Washington (last appearance 2011) as a token of respect for what they've done and are building especially since they return the majority of their production.

What Loyola did last year, making it to the F4 was great, but it really shouldn't have any bearing on the rankings the following year.  If they play well enough this year, they'll get ranked, and that's because of the respect they earned last season.  Preseason polls really don't mean anything anyways.  They're all projecting, and 99% of the time they're wrong one way or the other.  The only ranking that really matters is the seed line earned at the end of the year. 

Michigan wasn't ranked at the beginning of last year and wound up in the National Championship.  Northwestern was ranked 19th (and for good reason as they were an NCAA tournament team bringing back basically everyone) and fell off the face of the earth.  Arizona was ranked #3 and lost in the first round to Buffalo.  Louisville, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Northwestern, Saint Mary's and Baylor were all ranked at the beginning of last year and didn't make the tournament for one reason or another.

[Valpower]

They haven't lost all that much. They return 3 of their top 5 players and  have a ready replacement for Richardson in Williamson  an impact transfer becoming eligible in Uguak and a ton of freshman talent. Meanwhile  3 teams Loyola beat last year are in the top 12 including a Nevada team that hadn't won a tournament game since 2007 prior to last year. Returning talent or not they're likely to struggle to live up to that lofty ranking. But I'm not even asking for that much. I'm asking why Loyola can't have the nod over LSU (last appearance 2015 Last win 2009) or Washington (last appearance 2011) as a token of respect for what they've done and are building especially since they return the majority of their production.

What Loyola did last year, making it to the F4 was great, but it really shouldn't have any bearing on the rankings the following year.  If they play well enough this year, they'll get ranked, and that's because of the respect they earned last season.  Preseason polls really don't mean anything anyways.  They're all projecting, and 99% of the time they're wrong one way or the other.  The only ranking that really matters is the seed line earned at the end of the year. 

Michigan wasn't ranked at the beginning of last year and wound up in the National Championship.  Northwestern was ranked 19th (and for good reason as they were an NCAA tournament team bringing back basically everyone) and fell off the face of the earth.  Arizona was ranked #3 and lost in the first round to Buffalo.  Louisville, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Northwestern, Saint Mary's and Baylor were all ranked at the beginning of last year and didn't make the tournament for one reason or another.

Preseason polls may have little predictive value, but a good analyst could probably quantify the publicity value in monetary terms.  The media talks about the teams in the polls and it would be a good boost for mid-major schools who get little coverage.  Unfortunately, the media also likes a large audience so it has an interest in seeing P5 schools on top.

[EddieCabot]

They haven't lost all that much. They return 3 of their top 5 players and  have a ready replacement for Richardson in Williamson  an impact transfer becoming eligible in Uguak and a ton of freshman talent. Meanwhile  3 teams Loyola beat last year are in the top 12 including a Nevada team that hadn't won a tournament game since 2007 prior to last year. Returning talent or not they're likely to struggle to live up to that lofty ranking. But I'm not even asking for that much. I'm asking why Loyola can't have the nod over LSU (last appearance 2015 Last win 2009) or Washington (last appearance 2011) as a token of respect for what they've done and are building especially since they return the majority of their production.

What Loyola did last year, making it to the F4 was great, but it really shouldn't have any bearing on the rankings the following year.  If they play well enough this year, they'll get ranked, and that's because of the respect they earned last season.  Preseason polls really don't mean anything anyways.  They're all projecting, and 99% of the time they're wrong one way or the other.  The only ranking that really matters is the seed line earned at the end of the year. 

Michigan wasn't ranked at the beginning of last year and wound up in the National Championship.  Northwestern was ranked 19th (and for good reason as they were an NCAA tournament team bringing back basically everyone) and fell off the face of the earth.  Arizona was ranked #3 and lost in the first round to Buffalo.  Louisville, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Northwestern, Saint Mary's and Baylor were all ranked at the beginning of last year and didn't make the tournament for one reason or another.

Preseason polls may have little predictive value, but a good analyst could probably quantify the publicity value in monetary terms.  The media talks about the teams in the polls and it would be a good boost for mid-major schools who get little coverage.  Unfortunately, the media also likes a large audience so it has an interest in seeing P5 schools on top.

This data is from 2010, but it shows the #1 team in the pre-season AP poll performed better in the NCAA tournament than the #1 team in the final poll.  Again, data is old, but still an interesting read if you're into statistics.

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-preseason-ap-poll-is-great/