MVC Hoops: 2018-19

[Valpower]

They haven't lost all that much. They return 3 of their top 5 players and  have a ready replacement for Richardson in Williamson  an impact transfer becoming eligible in Uguak and a ton of freshman talent. Meanwhile  3 teams Loyola beat last year are in the top 12 including a Nevada team that hadn't won a tournament game since 2007 prior to last year. Returning talent or not they're likely to struggle to live up to that lofty ranking. But I'm not even asking for that much. I'm asking why Loyola can't have the nod over LSU (last appearance 2015 Last win 2009) or Washington (last appearance 2011) as a token of respect for what they've done and are building especially since they return the majority of their production.

What Loyola did last year, making it to the F4 was great, but it really shouldn't have any bearing on the rankings the following year.  If they play well enough this year, they'll get ranked, and that's because of the respect they earned last season.  Preseason polls really don't mean anything anyways.  They're all projecting, and 99% of the time they're wrong one way or the other.  The only ranking that really matters is the seed line earned at the end of the year. 

Michigan wasn't ranked at the beginning of last year and wound up in the National Championship.  Northwestern was ranked 19th (and for good reason as they were an NCAA tournament team bringing back basically everyone) and fell off the face of the earth.  Arizona was ranked #3 and lost in the first round to Buffalo.  Louisville, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Northwestern, Saint Mary's and Baylor were all ranked at the beginning of last year and didn't make the tournament for one reason or another.

Preseason polls may have little predictive value, but a good analyst could probably quantify the publicity value in monetary terms.  The media talks about the teams in the polls and it would be a good boost for mid-major schools who get little coverage.  Unfortunately, the media also likes a large audience so it has an interest in seeing P5 schools on top.

This data is from 2010, but it shows the #1 team in the pre-season AP poll performed better in the NCAA tournament than the #1 team in the final poll.  Again, data is old, but still an interesting read if you're into statistics.

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-preseason-ap-poll-is-great/

40% of me likes statistics, but 70% of me doesn't.

[EddieCabot]

Loyola just misses the AP Top 25... Such disrespect...

Here's how teams making a Final Four from a "mid-major" conference were rated to start the following season:

Loyola '18 - NR
Gonzaga '17 - 18th (merited, as they finished the year at 8th)
Wichita '13 - 16 (ended ranked #2)
VCU '11 - NR
Butler '11 - NR
Butler '10 - 17th
George Mason - NR

Of the three teams not-ranked to start the following season, only VCU's '12 team made it back to the NCAA tournament.

[IrishDawg]

Preseason polls may have little predictive value, but a good analyst could probably quantify the publicity value in monetary terms.  The media talks about the teams in the polls and it would be a good boost for mid-major schools who get little coverage.  Unfortunately, the media also likes a large audience so it has an interest in seeing P5 schools on top.

The thing is, the real money and publicity is made during the tournament when casual fans are paying attention.  There is value in having a team ranked, I won't deny that.  They're on the Top 25 ticker, they get an AP writer covering the game, and have a better chance of having their highlights shown.  But due to the NBA's popularity which takes up the majority of highlight time now, if you aren't Duke/UNC/Kentucky/Kansas, top 25 or not, the coverage during the regular season is going to be lacking.  Villanova's won 2 of the last 3 National titles and they get less national coverage than those 4 teams and the Michigan States, Indianas and UCLAs of the world.

[bbtds]

40% of me likes statistics, but 70% of me doesn't

It's good to hear you are giving it the proverbial 110%. 

[talksalot]

You're one of the three types of people. Those who like math and those who don't.

[VU2014]

Apparently Ben Jacobson is changing up UNI's offense. Their teams are notorious for slow pace, half court, grind down the shot clock and play strong defense. Sounds like that is changing. They have been recruiting some more athletic guys then in the past. I'm curious what the trade off will be on defense with their quicker pace of play on offense. even if it's just an exhibition against a non-D1, 74 points in one half is still 74 points in one half. Something to look out for this season. AJ Green is the real deal.

https://twitter.com/UNImbb/status/1056649267903979522

[IrishDawg]

Loyola lost in secret scrimmage to IU at Banker's Life in Indy.  Nothing official, but rumors had the score as 70-48.

[VUGrad1314]

If they can improve their offense without sacrificing much on defense it will be very good for the MVC. That said I think their previous style of play lends itself better to upsets. I hope it works out for them.

[FWalum]

Much like the question asked in the MBB thread about the roster and pictures not being updated.... What the heck is going on with the MVC website??? Where is all the basketball Media Day info??? There are now 3 or 4 articles up about specific teams, but way before this time last year there was all kinds of Multi-Media stuff including videos from the teams and coaches.  I asked this question before and was told that they most likely were waiting for the cable broadcasting to happen first. Well.... exhibition games are starting and still nothing on the MVC site.  Would have thought that the MVC would have wanted to take advantage of the Loyola buzz and be a little more proactive in getting as much stuff out there as early as possible!!

[wh]

Much like the question asked in the MBB thread about the roster and pictures not being updated.... What the heck is going on with the MVC website??? Where is all the basketball Media Day info??? There are now 3 or 4 articles up about specific teams, but way before this time last year there was all kinds of Multi-Media stuff including videos from the teams and coaches.  I asked this question before and was told that they most likely were waiting for the cable broadcasting to happen first. Well.... exhibition games are starting and still nothing on the MVC site.  Would have thought that the MVC would have wanted to take advantage of the Loyola buzz and be a little more proactive in getting as much stuff out there as early as possible!!

Yeah, it feels like we moved back to the Horizon League. As to no roster pictures or updated player bios, that's business as usual. Bad optics all around.

[vu72]

Much like the question asked in the MBB thread about the roster and pictures not being updated.... What the heck is going on with the MVC website??? Where is all the basketball Media Day info??? There are now 3 or 4 articles up about specific teams, but way before this time last year there was all kinds of Multi-Media stuff including videos from the teams and coaches.  I asked this question before and was told that they most likely were waiting for the cable broadcasting to happen first. Well.... exhibition games are starting and still nothing on the MVC site.  Would have thought that the MVC would have wanted to take advantage of the Loyola buzz and be a little more proactive in getting as much stuff out there as early as possible!!

Yeah, it feels like we moved back to the Horizon League. As to no roster pictures or updated player bios, that's business as usual. Bad optics all around.

Not making excuses but my guess(and that is all it is) is the Media Relation folks are just overworked.   I presume these are the people responsible for doing background stuff/player bios etc.  There are two people, Aaron Leavitt who covers WSO, VB and MBB and Brandon Vickrey, who covers MSO, FB and WBB.  So both have two fall sports leading into Basketball season.  That is tough duty. The pictures are a different problem.

[EddieCabot]

Much like the question asked in the MBB thread about the roster and pictures not being updated.... What the heck is going on with the MVC website??? Where is all the basketball Media Day info??? There are now 3 or 4 articles up about specific teams, but way before this time last year there was all kinds of Multi-Media stuff including videos from the teams and coaches.  I asked this question before and was told that they most likely were waiting for the cable broadcasting to happen first. Well.... exhibition games are starting and still nothing on the MVC site.  Would have thought that the MVC would have wanted to take advantage of the Loyola buzz and be a little more proactive in getting as much stuff out there as early as possible!!

Yeah, it feels like we moved back to the Horizon League. As to no roster pictures or updated player bios, that's business as usual. Bad optics all around.

Not making excuses but my guess(and that is all it is) is the Media Relation folks are just overworked.   I presume these are the people responsible for doing background stuff/player bios etc.  There are two people, Aaron Leavitt who covers WSO, VB and MBB and Brandon Vickrey, who covers MSO, FB and WBB.  So both have two fall sports leading into Basketball season.  That is tough duty. The pictures are a different problem.

FWIW, it looks like bios and stats have been updated for returning players and transfers, so it's just the freshmen that need to be updated.  Understandable, since they have been on campus long and the staff have lots of areas to cover.

Lots of schools utilize students (interns?) to compile a lot of this information to relieve some of the workload.  Does Valpo do this or do Adam and Brandon have to complete all of this work?

[VUBBFan]

Looks like Today was the Media photo shoot for VU basketball. I would think the roster pics will be updated soon.

https://twitter.com/ValpoBasketball/status/1057017951612743682

[FWalum]

Reached out to The Valley about the MVC BBall Media Day and season preview and quickly received an answer... I mean really quickly, like 15 minutes quick.  Here is their reply and the schedule:

We haven't released the air dates for the Preseason Basketball Special, but below is a schedule of when it will air on FOX Sports Midwest-Indiana-Kansas City and NBC Sports Chicago.

Have a great day. Go Valpo!


November 5 (4:30 p.m., 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. Central) – FOX Sports Midwest-Indiana-Kansas City

November 6 (1:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. Central) – NBC Sports Chicago (Main)

November 6 (4 p.m. Central) – NBC Sports Chicago (Plus)

November 7 (5:30 p.m. Central) – FOX Sports Midwest-Indiana

November 7 (7 p.m. Central) – NBC Sports Chicago (Plus)

November 8 (6 p.m. Central) – FOX Sports Midwest-Indiana-Kansas City

November 9 (5 p.m. Central) – FOX Sports Midwest-Indiana-Kansas City

They did not extrapolate on WHY they had not released the schedule as of this time... I mean, you are six days away from the first showing of the special and you still have not released the schedule??? Many of the teams have already had exhibition games and you still haven't released the schedule of the preseason preview???  I mean, doesn't the word "preseason" indicate that it should air "before the season"  All that aside, I want to thank them for being so very responsive! Next time I won't hesitate in sending off an email if I have a question.

[VUGrad1314]

Missouri State transfers Tyrik Dixon from Middle Tennessee and Tulio Da Silva from South Florida have been granted waivers and are immediately eligible. Rumor also has it that Illinois State is expecting good news on some players' eligibility as well. Great news for the conference as these teams will (and might) get needed depth early in the season.

[VU2014]

Opening night attendance comparison.

https://twitter.com/WyattWheeler_NL/status/1060308324942573568

[VU2014]

Loyola's team is such a well oiled machine. It pays to have experience and continuity amongst your roster. Good players and well coached. I'm not expecting us to have a Final 4 team next season but I expect us to have a similar fluidity. Something comparable to the 15-16 Valpo team. We'll see if this core has what it takes.

https://twitter.com/TimDoyle00/status/1060001508664795137

[VUGrad1314]

They play such smooth beautiful basketball. It really is a joy to watch.  I would love to see VU get that good. A return to 15-16 level would be awesome. A team like that in the MVC gets in I think. I'm sure I've said this before but I believe that that snub is the main reason why we're in the MVC. If we had gotten an at-large out of the HL I'm not sure enough people in power would be convinced of the necessity of the move.

[IrishDawg]

They play such smooth beautiful basketball. It really is a joy to watch.  I would love to see VU get that good. A return to 15-16 level would be awesome. A team like that in the MVC gets in I think. I'm sure I've said this before but I believe that that snub is the main reason why we're in the MVC. If we had gotten an at-large out of the HL I'm not sure enough people in power would be convinced of the necessity of the move.

That 15-16 Valpo team had a similar resume to the 16-17 Illinois State team, only Illinois State had a better win in beating Wichita State, and a better league record in a better league.  Neither received at-large berths.

[a3uge]

They play such smooth beautiful basketball. It really is a joy to watch.  I would love to see VU get that good. A return to 15-16 level would be awesome. A team like that in the MVC gets in I think. I'm sure I've said this before but I believe that that snub is the main reason why we're in the MVC. If we had gotten an at-large out of the HL I'm not sure enough people in power would be convinced of the necessity of the move.

That 15-16 Valpo team had a similar resume to the 16-17 Illinois State team, only Illinois State had a better win in beating Wichita State, and a better league record in a better league.  Neither received at-large berths.

How did the NIT go though? Valpo was the real deal that year.

[VUGrad1314]

They play such smooth beautiful basketball. It really is a joy to watch.  I would love to see VU get that good. A return to 15-16 level would be awesome. A team like that in the MVC gets in I think. I'm sure I've said this before but I believe that that snub is the main reason why we're in the MVC. If we had gotten an at-large out of the HL I'm not sure enough people in power would be convinced of the necessity of the move.

That 15-16 Valpo team had a similar resume to the 16-17 Illinois State team, only Illinois State had a better win in beating Wichita State, and a better league record in a better league.  Neither received at-large berths.

That was a down year for the Valley and they got boatraced by the Shockers twice I mean absolutely obliterated. I would have loved to have seen what would have happened had that final game been closer and\or if the MVC had been stronger. In a year like last year a team with Illinois State's resume probably gets in. (I think 15-16 Valpo may have gotten in too if the MVC had strong metrics like lads st year. Sure last year's MVC only got one bid but last year's SIU and ISUr weren't as good as 16-17 ISUr or 15-16 Valpo.

[usc4valpo]

Preseason polls are crapola. If Loyola succeeds in a similar manner to last year, they will be in the top 25.

It is even worse for college football. I knew at the beginning of the season that USC had a green team and not even close to being a top 25 team.

[IrishDawg]

That was a down year for the Valley and they got boatraced by the Shockers twice I mean absolutely obliterated. I would have loved to have seen what would have happened had that final game been closer and\or if the MVC had been stronger. In a year like last year a team with Illinois State's resume probably gets in. (I think 15-16 Valpo may have gotten in too if the MVC had strong metrics like lads st year. Sure last year's MVC only got one bid but last year's SIU and ISUr weren't as good as 16-17 ISUr or 15-16 Valpo.

I'm not going to disagree with them getting beaten badly twice could have been a factor, but the only thing that mad last year's MVC stronger was the middle and the bottom of the league, and you aren't building an at-large resume by beating teams in the 100-150 range.

Loyola would likely not have gotten in last year had they not won the MVC championship game based on their seed line.  Their resume is similar to the 16 Valpo team as well, except again their best OOC was better, and Valpo beating Loyola wouldn't have gotten them in the tournament either, as they would be beating a team that wouldn't get an at-large berth on their own. 

I'm not saying it's fair or right, but in order for the MVC to get multiple bids, it will take a team like Illinois State running roughshod over their OOC schedule AND hope that the teams like UCF, BYU and SDSU wind up being really strong, because they all look to be borderline type of wins to build an at-large resume.  Similarly, Valpo would need to with only 1 or 2 losses in their OOC schedule, need to beat WVU in one of those matchups and hope that some of the other teams they play outside of the MVC like WKU or even Ball State also turn into good wins.

Again, the 2016 Valpo team and the 2017 Illinois State teams were both good enough that they could have competed in the NCAA tournament.  The problem is still with the OOC wins that teams need to pick up gives them so little room for error it's really hard to build a resume that the tournament committee couldn't resist putting in on selection Sunday.

[VUGrad1314]

The MVC's multibid hopes just took a big hit with Loyola's loss to Furman. They're a good program to be sure but a loss like that on your home floor is exactly the kind of loss the committee looks for as justification to keep a team like Loyola out if the Ramblers need any help on Selection Sunday. Hopefully this galvanizes them going forward and they roll through the rest of OOC play but make no mistake this is not a good night for the conference.

[EddieCabot]

The MVC's multibid hopes just took a big hit with Loyola's loss to Furman. They're a good program to be sure but a loss like that on your home floor is exactly the kind of loss the committee looks for as justification to keep a team like Loyola out if the Ramblers need any help on Selection Sunday. Hopefully this galvanizes them going forward and they roll through the rest of OOC play but make no mistake this is not a good night for the conference.

Let's face it ... after going to the Final Four, Loyola will be the opponent's "Super Bowl" in almost every game this year.  I'm not writing off their at-large chances yet, but it doesn't look good because they'll certainly take on several losses in a stacked MVC this year.