MVC Hoops: 2018-19

[VUGrad1314]

That UNItard is a moron who keeps breaking his own record for self-unawareness. I highly encourage any Valpo fan with an account to eviscerate him. His prediction of "every MVC team but Valpo can finish top 4" is looking real solid.

I do my best to do so fairly factually and nicely and I think I do a decent job of accomplishing those goals. But they seem really entitled for some reason and I can't understand why some of them are so consistently hard on us.

[SanityLost17]

Through 4 games in the valley we are are keeping our opponents to an average of 59.5 points.  That stat is why we are winning.   Golders half court heave doesn't account for this change of team attitude as we kept illst to 56 points.

I would have given a 0% chance of this team having the best defense in the league through 4 games.   We literally were scored on at will in the non-con.   

[oklahomamick]

Good stats SanityLost.  I can't believe the drastic change. 

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/d1coachcorner/status/1084564608051015680

[oklahomamick]

Couldn't help but notice former MVC member Wichita St. has yet to win a conference game this year. 

[VU2014]

Interesting data:
https://twitter.com/redbirdrecon/status/1087411443325169664?s=21

[SanityLost17]

NCAA NET Rankings as of yesterday:

97 Loyola
133 Drake
156 Southern Illinois
161 Evansville
170 Valpo
180 Indiana State
187 Illinois State
192 Missouri State
197 UNI
227 Bradley

8 Schools between 133-197 with a couple outliers.   Valpo right in the middle.  If we had a time machine and played with our current intensity/confidence in the non-con I think we would be in the 140 range of the NET because realistically you are only looking at 2 or 3 more wins (High Point / Wake Forest / Ball State (maybe only because it was a home game).

[oklahomamick]

I wonder what our RPI would be?  Which one favors us, RPI or NET?  Seems like NET has only hurt the mid-majors

[EddieCabot]

I wonder what our RPI would be?  Which one favors us, RPI or NET?  Seems like NET has only hurt the mid-majors

Per Warren Nolan, Valpo's RPI would also be 170.  The results are really all over the map.  The NET is bad for Drake (-55), ISUb (-40) and UNI (-35), but good for UE (+49), MSU (+46) and Bradley (+26).

The NET ratings are much more in line with Ken Pom rankings, which makes sense since the NET is now incorporating team efficiency in its formula.

[wh]

I wonder what our RPI would be?  Which one favors us, RPI or NET?  Seems like NET has only hurt the mid-majors

Per Warren Nolan, Valpo's RPI would also be 170.  The results are really all over the map.  The NET is bad for Drake (-55), ISUb (-40) and UNI (-35), but good for UE (+49), MSU (+46) and Bradley (+26).

The NET ratings are much more in line with Ken Pom rankings, which makes sense since the NET is now incorporating team efficiency in its formula.

It's a little disingenuous to criticize "the system" at this point. Clearly, our Crusaders dug their own NET/RPI grave by their lackluster effort prior to the PNW game. They lost games they should have won and performed inefficiently more often than not. They still have an excellent opportunity to turn a dismal beginning into a successful conclusion, but they will never shake the rating effects of a dismal OOC effort against a very weak lineup.

[NativeCheesehead]

I don't think we can emphasize enough how much a strong finish, win or two in STL, and participation in one of the post season tourneys will benefit this program going into next year. One thing we have lacked recently is playing in games with both real stakes and real expectations, and that showed last week in Chicago. The more used to that we get, the less it will feel like the lights are too bright in big games.

[VU2014]

I don't think we can emphasize enough how much a strong finish, win or two in STL, and participation in one of the post season tourneys will benefit this program going into next year. One thing we have lacked recently is playing in games with both real stakes and real expectations, and that showed last week in Chicago. The more used to that we get, the less it will feel like the lights are too bright in big games.

I'd say the biggest game this squad has ever played in the MVC was that Loyola game, where we had any sense of expectations. The Thursday Arch Madness game was big but not many felt we'd make any noise so expectations were low.

[VUGrad1314]

MVC Coaches on Home Court Advantage\Winning on the  Road

http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/mvc-theres-no-place-like-home/

[VUBBFan]

https://twitter.com/ValleyHoops/status/1087871787063480321

[valpotx]

What a crazy and fun conference!  Loyola gets spanked by MO State by 35, and SIU comes back from being down by 21 with 1:35 left in the first half against UNI, and wins by 8.

[IrishDawg]

What a crazy and fun conference!  Loyola gets spanked by MO State by 35, and SIU comes back from being down by 21 with 1:35 left in the first half against UNI, and wins by 8.

The Loyola game might be the single biggest change in rankings for 2 teams on kenpom this year.  Loyola went from #83 before the game to #129 now and Missouri State went from ranked #205 before the game to #162 after.

[4throwfan]

While going through the Horizon League with a high and reasonable expectation of winning the championship each year was nice, the broad parity of quality teams in the MVC is fun in a different way.  Gives us VU fans a different type of excitement.  I hope there are more years like this.  As we sit here, the only team in the conference not tied with someone else is Bradley.

I think the grind and continuous coping with pressure will have our tournament champion much better prepared for the Dance.  However, that parity, even in good years (if it continues), will likely mean a single bid each year.

[usc4valpo]

I still think Loyola is the team to beat at the end of the season. They are champions unless proven otherwise. Valpo has a chance to knock them off the throne, but no more games like yesterday can happen.

[bbtds]

I still think Loyola is the team to beat at the end of the season. They are champions unless proven otherwise. Valpo has a chance to knock them off the throne, but no more games like yesterday can happen.

We just may end up tied for 1st with Loyola because they have as many let downs as Valpo, including a less than stellar performance at the ARC. One thing I recall is that in our game at the Gentile Center we were stiffled by Loyola's defense and they hit outside shot after outside shot. Krutwig's inside game was not particularly overwhelming as their shooting and defense was. If the Ramblers shooting is cold they can be vulnerable. I've not checked but Loyola's shooting couldn't have been good in that 11 point 2nd half at Missouri State.

[bbtds]

From a story on the Loyola at MSU game in the Springfield News-Leader:
Missouri State ended the game by allowing just 11 second-half points and a total of nine rebounds. Nine rebounds are the fewest amount a team has grabbed all season in Division I basketball.
This win shows the Bears are onto something. Sure, they have room to grow this year but when Missouri State is knocking down shots, it can play with anyone.

Team Statistics
Game Stats   LUC            MSU
FG%           .343   .634
3FG%           .200   .522
FT%           .818   .750
RB                      9            28
TO                      14   14
STL                         7   6

[EddieCabot]

Looking at KenPom predictions today, he has Valpo finishing at 9-9, tied with ISUr for 4th.  That would keep them out of the Thursday games for teams 7 - 10.

However, KenPom has 7 teams (places 3 through 9) projected at 10-8, 9-9 or 8-10, so it's a fine line between being the 3 seed or playing on Thursday.

The MVC has also fallen to #16 in the KenPom conference rankings, which would be the lowest ranking in the KenPom archives that go back to 2002.  The MVC trails the Ivy, WAC, Sun Belt and is just barely ahead of #17 CUSA.  The Horizon is at #18.

What all this shows is that the MVC has no dominate teams and we've already seen some crazy results.  Arch Madness will be wide open and if Valpo can get healthy, they'll have a great chance to make some noise.

[justducky]

What all this shows is that the MVC has no dominate teams and we've already seen some crazy results.  Arch Madness will be wide open and if Valpo can get healthy, they'll have a great chance to make some noise.

Due to our slower than expected start and multiple injuries it is too late to worry about NCAA seeding and too early to worry about strategizing for a win at St Louis. When healthy I still like us as a team that could be firing on all cylinders in March. Most team members are already meeting or exceeding my pre season expectations (maybe yours too?).

Any 8 man rotation has to be innovative to improve and create new looks. I would be tempted to start Mileek and have him set screen after screen after screen after screen until he either gets it right or fouls out. He either has to learn or watch from the end of the bench. Anything in between is a waste of everybody's time. You would think he could be a great threat with the pick and pop but ok, I know, its one step at a time. Given the 4 guard lineup reality we might also look for opportunities to show a brief double post look. It didn't work last year but both are now much improved both on offense and defense. Experiments now might give us an expanded playbook later.

[VUGrad1314]

Big loss for the Ramblers

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1090726368843829249

[justducky]

This new NET measure is really shaking things up. By losing 4 of our last 5 Valley games we have plummeted to 190 from our high of 171. Thats almost breathtaking! If we had won 4 of the last 5 we might be edging ever so close to 160. 

[VALPO LI]

Two really good articles came out over night about Sackey (NWI Times) and Lavender (The Telegraph) can someone please post!