MVC Hoops: 2018-19

[FWalum]

I know the Sackey article is posted in another thread so here is the Lavender article. Deion has found the right fit

[4throwfan]

In a previous post on this thread, I remarked on the parity in this conference.  I really enjoy it. 

I did a little bit of comparing the different conference standings on the CBS Sports page on conference standings with a view toward parity.  Here's my very unscientific conclusion: The MVC has the best parity in the country.

Here's how I get to that:

All of my stats below are based on conference play.

Only two teams are not tied.  Three teams are tied for 3rd through 5th place.  Two teams are tied for 6th through 7th place.  Three teams are tied for 8th through 10th place.

The highest winning percentage of the last place team is .364.  Only the MVC has a team with that high of a winning percentage for its last place team, and the MVC has three teams tied with that percentage.  Only two other conferences have a last place team with a win percentage at .300 or more (.300 and .333).  Seven of the other conferences has a last place team with a .000 winning percentage.  The average winning percentage for the last place team for the country is .137, which is well less than half of that of the MVC.  Which means that the average last place team in the country has won less than half the number of games that the last place team(s) in the MVC have won.

The MVC is tied for second place for the top team having the lowest winning percentage, which is .727.  Two other conferences have their top team with a winning percentage of .700.

And finally, ...

The differential in winning percentage between the first place team and the last place team in the MVC is .363.  That's the lowest differential in the country.  Only two other conferences have a differential below .500 (one at .367, and one at .478).  The average differential is .741.  The average W/L differential for the country is more than twice that of the MVC.  Three conferences have a differential of 1.000.  In other words, in those three conferences, the top team is undefeated (1.000), and the last place team is winless (.000).

[VULB#62]

And parity kills..........

[wh]

In a previous post on this thread, I remarked on the parity in this conference.  I really enjoy it. 

I did a little bit of comparing the different conference standings on the CBS Sports page on conference standings with a view toward parity.  Here's my very unscientific conclusion: The MVC has the best parity in the country.

Here's how I get to that:

All of my stats below are based on conference play.

Only two teams are not tied.  Three teams are tied for 3rd through 5th place.  Two teams are tied for 6th through 7th place.  Three teams are tied for 8th through 10th place.

The highest winning percentage of the last place team is .364.  Only the MVC has a team with that high of a winning percentage for its last place team, and the MVC has three teams tied with that percentage.  Only two other conferences have a last place team with a win percentage at .300 or more (.300 and .333).  Seven of the other conferences has a last place team with a .000 winning percentage.  The average winning percentage for the last place team for the country is .137, which is well less than half of that of the MVC.  Which means that the average last place team in the country has won less than half the number of games that the last place team(s) in the MVC have won.

The MVC is tied for second place for the top team having the lowest winning percentage, which is .727.  Two other conferences have their top team with a winning percentage of .700.

And finally, ...

The differential in winning percentage between the first place team and the last place team in the MVC is .363.  That's the lowest differential in the country.  Only two other conferences have a differential below .500 (one at .367, and one at .478).  The average differential is .741.  The average W/L differential for the country is more than twice that of the MVC.  Three conferences have a differential of 1.000.  In other words, in those three conferences, the top team is undefeated (1.000), and the last place team is winless (.000).

Nice post. Interesting and informative. 

[FieldGoodie05]

In a previous post on this thread, I remarked on the parity in this conference.  I really enjoy it. 

I did a little bit of comparing the different conference standings on the CBS Sports page on conference standings with a view toward parity.  Here's my very unscientific conclusion: The MVC has the best parity in the country.

Here's how I get to that:

All of my stats below are based on conference play.

Only two teams are not tied.  Three teams are tied for 3rd through 5th place.  Two teams are tied for 6th through 7th place.  Three teams are tied for 8th through 10th place.

The highest winning percentage of the last place team is .364.  Only the MVC has a team with that high of a winning percentage for its last place team, and the MVC has three teams tied with that percentage.  Only two other conferences have a last place team with a win percentage at .300 or more (.300 and .333).  Seven of the other conferences has a last place team with a .000 winning percentage.  The average winning percentage for the last place team for the country is .137, which is well less than half of that of the MVC.  Which means that the average last place team in the country has won less than half the number of games that the last place team(s) in the MVC have won.

The MVC is tied for second place for the top team having the lowest winning percentage, which is .727.  Two other conferences have their top team with a winning percentage of .700.

And finally, ...

The differential in winning percentage between the first place team and the last place team in the MVC is .363.  That's the lowest differential in the country.  Only two other conferences have a differential below .500 (one at .367, and one at .478).  The average differential is .741.  The average W/L differential for the country is more than twice that of the MVC.  Three conferences have a differential of 1.000.  In other words, in those three conferences, the top team is undefeated (1.000), and the last place team is winless (.000).

Nice post. Interesting and informative. 

Thanks for taking the time to gather and present.  I suppose the next question is....what does this parity mean for the MVC champion in the seeding?

Is it safe to say this level of parity actually hurts our auto-qualifier ??

[4throwfan]

My view is that it will be terrible for our tournament champion.  Their reward for the grind will be a terrible seed.

The good news is that it makes every game at the ARC pretty fun.  Can't say that about some nights while in the HL.

[VULB#62]

Is it safe to say this level of parity actually hurts our auto-qualifier ??

Losses, no mater to whom, always does. Parity kills. Unless the MVC winner comes through virtually unscathed at the end of the regular season and tourney, we (the MVC) will be dumped on. And right now, even though we are quality teams that would destroy other mid-major leaders, we are killing each other every week. Not good for NCAA seeding, but it's a hell of a ride.

[4throwfan]

It doesn't help that the conference, as a whole, did not perform consistently well in the OOC part of the schedule.  From NCAA's eyes, no team from the conference did well enough to separate itself.  If the champ performed just well enough to get to the Dance, and comes from a conference that didn't do particularly well in pre-conference play, then there is no reason to award a high seed.

So, we should forget about the champ having a good seed, and simply enjoy the games until then. 

[JD24]

Right now, the MVC rep could be playing in the First Four or whatever they call the nonsense in Dayton.

[may know]

 

There has never been a 14th rated league with its rep in the play-in game.

[IrishDawg]

There has never been a 14th rated league with its rep in the play-in game.

Agreed - other than the 16 seeds, league champs do not play in the First Four, so whoever wins the MVC won't have to worry about that.

[oklahomamick]

But...the HL has to worry about it.

[JD24]

There has never been a 14th rated league with its rep in the play-in game.

So you're saying there's a chance.

[EddieCabot]

But...the HL has to worry about it.

Assuming the auto-bid comes from the top-5 teams, there's not a big difference between the conferences.  Here is the KenPom/NET rankings for the top-5 in each (KenPom has MVC ranked 16th and the Horizon 18th):

1.  123/124
2.  135/141
3.  162/162
4.  167/159
5.  180/181

1.  87/108
2.  149/149
3.  176/189
4.  197/206
5.  202/207

[crusadermoe]

Yikes.   Hopefully Loyola is the #87 and we are the second group.    Yes, the out-of-conference records were very poor!    Missouri State beat Western Kentucky at home.   Otherwise the MVC gagged.

[VUGrad1314]

Actually no I think that 87 is NKU

[EddieCabot]

Actually no I think that 87 is NKU

Correct.

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/stlhensley/status/1093963603638669313?s=21

[bigmosmithfan1]

If Loyola wins Arch Madness, they'll get bumped up a seed line or two by virtue of the "returning Final Four team" thing, which the committee almost always does, even if subconsciously. Otherwise, the MVC rep's seeding will be somewhere between "uhhhh" and "NOT GREAT, BOB."

[bigmosmithfan1]

BTW, Illinois State lost to Mo State on a halfcourt buzzer-beater this weekend. Not sure what the odds are against losing that way after being ahead by 2 points twice in a span of five weeks, but it has to be astronomical. The MSU shot was from the same spot on the floor and in the same direction as Golder's shot, as well.

[crusader05]

There have been highs and lows to being a valpo fan this year and obviously verdict is still out based on how they end the season/Arch Madness, but I do not envy any ISUr fans this year. They've been put through the ringer.

[SanityLost17]

Reason to have hope for Arch Madness: 

Look at our minutes distribution compared to Loyola:  http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401089312

Until Loyola gets Williamson back they are racking up a lot of minutes to get the job done.  I am critical about Lottich's overall offensive game plan but I will say he has done a pretty good job dividing up minutes all MVC season long. Even losing Fazekas he still keeps minutes in check.  A few exceptions but those were injury related necessities.  Not exactly sure how other teams are distributing minutes but Lottich is trying to keep legs fresh for the home stretch.  He could have really tightened the lineup for close games like Loyola but he really hasn't done so.  Seeds 3-6 are fairly meaningless in many ways and if you have to kill all your best guys to get to 2 seed thats not worth it so yeah.  Method to the madness. 

My Current Hopes for Arch Madness: 
1. We avoid Thursday
2. We avoid Illinois State all together.  I could see that team with that chemistry laying an egg but I think they will be mad at us and they won't lay any sort of egg against us. 

Anything else I don't care about.  Whatever happens happens.  If Fazekas can get into game shape over the last 4-6 games (or whatever he can play in) we will have 10 guys with game experience to roll with at Arch Madness.  Sub early and sub often and go full defensive intensity and pray 3 of the 10 guys on any given night are hot from the field.  Maybe with each passing game we become the team that owns the last 10 minutes.   

[VUGrad1314]

Really inspiring story about a former Loyola walk-on Nick DiNardi.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2019/2/11/18220406/loyola-chicago-ramblers-walk-on-nick-dinardi-btb-foundation-ibd

[VUGrad1314]

As Oren points out all we need to have a good chance to avoid Thursday is to hold serve at home. 4-2 should get us out of the woods entirely but you never know in the MVC.

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5194&start=50

[talksalot]

Next 7 days will be fun in the Valley...

Drake 10-6  NET 134    H- Ind State   @ Mo St  Lost twice to Loyola, Beat Mo State once
Loyola 10-6  NET 127   @ No Iowa   H- Bradley  Lost twice to Missouri State
Mo St  10-6  NET 159   @ Ill State    H- Drake

No Iowa  9-7  NET  163   H- Loyola  @ Ind State

Bradley  8-8  NET 178   H- Valpo  @ Loyola
So Ill    8-8  NET 147  @ Evansville   H-Ill State
Ill State 8-8 NET 202   H-Mo St    @ So Ill

Valpo 7-9  NET 180    @ Bradley   H-Evansville

Ind State 6-10  NET 196   @Drake  H-No Iowa

Evansville 4-12 NET 206  H-So Ill   @ Valpo

Tie Breaker:

Head-to-Head
If Still Tied.  All tie breakers are the NET next Sunday morning.

Valpo's Road to Friday appears to be:

Win Twice, end at 9-9
Bradley loses twice falling to 8-10   If we beat Bradley and they beat Loyola, they will have a better NET than Valpo and Bradley will take the tie breaker.

If Northern Iowa loses twice to also end up at 9-9, we lose that Head-to-head tie breaker.

Either Illinois State or Southern Illinois loses twice 8-10.  Only one can lose twice, since they play each other.  We hold the tie breaker over the ISU-SIU winner if we tie either of them.

If Valpo loses on Wednesday, the best they can do is 7-seed if either SIU or ISUr lose twice.

So... Let's go to Carver Arena at the Peoria Civic Center and come out with a smile!