MVC Hoops: 2018-19

[VU2014]

I wouldn't even call it a science, because the NCAA tournament committee won't even follow the criteria they set for themselves to pick at-large teams. They keep changing the criteria. Now we have this Quadrant system that significantly disadvantages the mid-majors even more then before because mids don't have access to many quadrant 1 & 2 games. It's almost impossible to get a Q1 or Q2 team to play at your building. It really is a joke.

[VU2014]

DJ Wilkins (Merrillville) committed to Drake

https://twitter.com/SteveHanlon3/status/992248969420881921

[VUGrad1314]

Austin Reaves a Wichita State transfer who looked like he might be headed to UNI as of a few days ago is now also considering Indiana Purdue and Michigan. That can't be good for the Panthers chances. I think it's clear that this kid wants to go P5 and Northern Iowa is just a safety valve. I hope I'm wrong and UNI does get him but this development leaves me less than optimistic.

[IrishDawg]

I wouldn't even call it a science, because the NCAA tournament committee won't even follow the criteria they set for themselves to pick at-large teams. They keep changing the criteria. Now we have this Quadrant system that significantly disadvantages the mid-majors even more then before because mids don't have access to many quadrant 1 & 2 games. It's almost impossible to get a Q1 or Q2 team to play at your building. It really is a joke.

I don't know if I'd say the quadrant system disadvantages the mid-majors more than the "top 50 wins" that they always used as qualifiers before, but it definitely doesn't benefit them any more like it was sold as going to do.  I think the "most fair" model if the goal really is to pick the best at-large teams, regardless of schedule and league is to move to an analytical model, though Loyola again would have been borderline (and probably on the wrong side of the bubble based on the cutoff line) to get in that model too had they not won the MVC tourney based on their pre-tourney rating.

Teams that would have gotten in under a model using Kenpom:
Saint Mary's (28)
Penn State (29)
Notre Dame (31)
Louisville (33)
Baylor (34)
USC (40)
Maryland (46)

Teams that wouldn't have gotten in under a model using Kenpom:
Oklahoma (47)
UCLA (48)
Rhode Island (49)
Alabama (51)
Syracuse (54)
Providence (63)
St. Bonaventure (69)

[UNIFTW]

Austin Reaves a Wichita State transfer who looked like he might be headed to UNI as of a few days ago is now also considering Indiana Purdue and Michigan. That can't be good for the Panthers chances. I think it's clear that this kid wants to go P5 and Northern Iowa is just a safety valve. I hope I'm wrong and UNI does get him but this development leaves me less than optimistic.

Those schools were mentioned from the start as landing places. This is just Rothstein throwing crap against a wall to reignite clicks in a topic that hasn't had news in a week. He also mentioned Indiana - who doesn't have an open ride.

He took a visit to Oklahoma and it went poorly. He took a visit to UNI and it went so well he extended by by two days just to hang out with people more. As proof of this he was seen at a restaurant with players 2 days after his official visit. We signed one of his best friends from growing up in Shandon Goldman. He wants to go somewhere he feels welcomed.

Until he shows up in either one of those campuses for an official visit there's no reason to believe anything other than he's UNI bound based in everything I've been told. I was given a % from a connected source that would put him at a high A at landing at UNI.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VULB#62]

Hope it works out.

[bbtds]

Austin Reaves a Wichita State transfer who looked like he might be headed to UNI as of a few days ago is now also considering Indiana Purdue and Michigan. That can't be good for the Panthers chances. I think it's clear that this kid wants to go P5 and Northern Iowa is just a safety valve. I hope I'm wrong and UNI does get him but this development leaves me less than optimistic.

Those schools were mentioned from the start as landing places. This is just Rothstein throwing crap against a wall to reignite clicks in a topic that hasn't had news in a week. He also mentioned Indiana - who doesn't have an open ride.

He took a visit to Oklahoma and it went poorly. He took a visit to UNI and it went so well he extended by by two days just to hang out with people more. As proof of this he was seen at a restaurant with players 2 days after his official visit. We signed one of his best friends from growing up in Shandon Goldman. He wants to go somewhere he feels welcomed.

Until he shows up in either one of those campuses for an official visit there's no reason to believe anything other than he's UNI bound based in everything I've been told. I was given a % from a connected source that would put him at a high A at landing at UNI.

Good luck! I feel you will most likely need it.

[VUGrad1314]

According to unconfirmed reports from Evansville's beat writer posted by a fan on MVCFans, Evansville will also be doing H and H series with Ball State and Miami(OH) and has a buy game with Kentucky planned in the future  (not this year ) So great to see them building a serious legitimate respectable nonconference schedule.

[VU2014]

According to unconfirmed reports from Evansville's beat writer posted by a fan on MVCFans, Evansville will also be doing H and H series with Ball State and Miami(OH) and has a buy game with Kentucky planned in the future  (not this year ) So great to see them building a serious legitimate respectable nonconference schedule.

I'm hoping Ball State continues it's annual game with Valpo. I enjoyed the series and I'd really like to beat "natty light bro" Tayler Persons next season. Heck of a player of player but he rubs me the wrong way. We need payback at our place.

[VUGrad1314]

I don't like these comments on scheduling going forward from coach Dan Muller of Illinois State. I was hoping we could count on him alongside Jacobsen at UNI and hopefully us as standard bearers for scheduling in the MVC,

http://www.videtteonline.com/sports/muller-turns-focus-to-summer-next-season/article_18817ec4-26f4-11e8-b401-0f67c4c6a61c.html

[bbtds]

I don't like these comments on scheduling going forward from coach Dan Muller of Illinois State. I was hoping we could count on him alongside Jacobsen at UNI and hopefully us as standard bearers for scheduling in the MVC,

http://www.videtteonline.com/sports/muller-turns-focus-to-summer-next-season/article_18817ec4-26f4-11e8-b401-0f67c4c6a61c.html

I think Muller was just trying to show frustration with the whole NCAA process of scheduling and the fact that the selection committee says one thing but in the end it doesn't help much. He's been there and done that and been shafted by the committee.

I find it interesting that there is a newspaper out there that uses the name Vidette.

[IrishDawg]

I think Muller was just trying to show frustration with the whole NCAA process of scheduling and the fact that the selection committee says one thing but in the end it doesn't help much. He's been there and done that and been shafted by the committee.

I find it interesting that there is a newspaper out there that uses the name Vidette.

The year they were snubbed, his OOC SOS was 173, and Illinois State's only quality win the entire year was at home against Wichita State.  This year he scheduled harder (OOC SOS was 22), but their only quality win was a South Carolina team that was 7-11 in the SEC and barely over .500 overall, and they lost at home to Charleston Southern.  I can understand him being frustrated because teams don't want to come to Normal for a game, but I'm a little skeptical that he's somehow angry about not getting at-large consideration this year when I don't really see a reason why they should have.  They did play good teams last year, but they still need to win some of those games for them to help.

[VUGrad1314]

And yet it's not even an issue of teams not willing to come to Normal. Their home slate now includes BYU SDSU FGCU and Mississippi as well as Murray State and UIC on the road. They sweep through those and show well in the tournament that should be good for at large consideration. OOC SOS is something I wish we would see used against the P5/BE/AAC more. Some teams numbers are criminally terrible. Here's a few of my favorites:

Cincinnati 294
Michigan State 303
Michigan 301
Texas Tech 309
West Virginia 299
Houston 254
Florida State 330
Creighton 292
Virginia Tech 344
Miami(FL) 284
Kansas State 324
NC State 342

And there were several other sub 150 and sub 200 teams I could have added to this list but I think these 12 really illustrate the point well enough. Talk about gaming the system. My goodness. Play a bunch of crappy teams in the non con and count on the power of our conferences to put us on the right side of the bubble meanwhile deny the good mids games against us to keep them on the wrong side of the bubble. I think at large teams especially from powerful conferences need to be held to higher scheduling standards.

Rules for at large teams:
20 wins minimum
12 losses maximum
Top 60 RPI I'd even be willing to go higher say top 50 or so.
Over 500 conference record Not exactly 500 OVER
Absolutely no teams with a NCSOS lower than a predefined range (Say 250? I mean come on get out of the bottom 100 at least though I think even 150 or 200 could be fair numbers but I'd be willing to test it out at 250 first). will be considered for an at large NO EXCEPTIONS
.

[VUGrad1314]

Loyola just picked up a commitment from a SG from Queens. He's said to be a better version of Cameron Satterwhite.

[VUGrad1314]

Drake has pledged themselves to the Las Vegas Classic with Washington State New Mexico State and San Diego They will play nonbracketed games against  at least one of Northern Colorado Northern Alabama Cal St-Northridge  and SIU-Edwardsville. Not great but not bad for where the program is likely at right now.

Here's a good resource for keeping up with tournaments\MTEs

https://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2017/11/27/16671208/2018-19-college-basketball-early-season-tournaments-events-mte-neutral-site-showcases-thanksgiving

[bigmosmithfan1]

I wouldn't even call it a science, because the NCAA tournament committee won't even follow the criteria they set for themselves to pick at-large teams.

This... they adhere to this when it benefits P5/Big East teams and put it aside when it would benefit a midmajor. It's a constant shifting of goal posts. The battle needs to be won on the PR/public pressure front moving forward. Loyola's run coupled with historic first-round blowout wins by 13 and 16 seeds has obliterated the "midmajors can't compete or don't deserve it" talking point forever, if ALL non-P5s (fans, players, coaches and ADs alike) pick up the mantle and speak loudly and unrelentingly with one voice.

[EddieCabot]

Rules for at large teams:
20 wins minimum
12 losses maximum
Top 60 RPI I'd even be willing to go higher say top 50 or so.
Over 500 conference record Not exactly 500 OVER
Absolutely no teams with a NCSOS lower than a predefined range (Say 250? I mean come on get out of the bottom 100 at least though I think even 150 or 200 could be fair numbers but I'd be willing to test it out at 250 first). will be considered for an at large NO EXCEPTIONS.

Those rules would free up several spots for non-P6 teams.  I'd suggest even a few more things to make NCAA basketball more fair for the mid and low-majors:
- Limit the number of total bids to 4 per conference.
- Split the NCAA tourney money evenly between the 68 entrants (and their conferences); no additional shares for tournament wins as this unfairly benefits the P6 schools.

I'm tired of seeing 75% of the tourney payouts going to the P6 schools that don't really need the money.  The NCAA could learn a thing or two from our Federal Government and design a system where the money is taken from the P6 schools and given to the mid and low-major teams to help them improve their programs and facilities.

[IrishDawg]

And yet it's not even an issue of teams not willing to come to Normal. Their home slate now includes BYU SDSU FGCU and Mississippi as well as Murray State and UIC on the road. They sweep through those and show well in the tournament that should be good for at large consideration. OOC SOS is something I wish we would see used against the P5/BE/AAC more. Some teams numbers are criminally terrible. Here's a few of my favorites:

Cincinnati 294, 87 (Buffalo, Xavier, Florida, Mississippi State, UCLA)
Michigan State 303, 62 (Duke, DePaul, UConn, North Carolina, Notre Dame)
Michigan 301, 18 (LSU, VCU, North Carolina, UCLA, Texas)
Texas Tech 309, 19 (Boston College, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Nevada, South Carolina)
West Virginia 299, 16 (Texas A&M, Missouri, Virginia, Pittsburgh, Kentucky)
Houston 254, 81 (Wake Forest, Arkansas, LSU, Providence)
Florida State 330, 36 (Florida, Oklahoma State, Rutgers)
Creighton 292, 33 (Northwestern, UCLA, Baylor, Gonzaga, Nebraska)
Virginia Tech 344, 53 (Washington, Iowa, Mississippi, Kentucky)
Miami(FL) 284, 52 (Minnesota, New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee State)
Kansas State 324, 34 (Arizona State, Vanderbilt, Washington State, Georgia)
NC State 342, 55 (Arizona, Tennessee, Penn State)

The reason their non-conference SOS is so low, is because of their buy games against teams in the 300s.  The reason why the overall strength of the NCSOS doesn't matter is because the top level teams they play are better than Illinois State's best teams next year for the most part, and then they go and play a major conference schedule.  The Redbirds essentially have to hope that some, if not all of those teams are going to be tourney level teams next season, which unfortunately is more the exception than the rule with the majority of those programs.  I have added the list of the top teams the schools above played last year in the non-conference, and their overall SOS ranking.

Setting these higher standards for major conferences to clear is pretty much the fastest way for them to take their balls and leave.  The money the TV rights pay out are that way because of the major programs, which is why the tourney shares are as big as they are.  Those conferences may not need it, but they are the ones generating the majority of the interest (and I say this knowing Butler doesn't generate TV interest) after the first weekend.  Telling them they can't have weak NCSOS is also the fastest way for the bottom 50 programs to dissolve, as the majority of their entire athletic department's funding is from playing buy games against the programs above.

Again, the most "fair" way (there isn't a true fair way, as major programs are going to have better players the majority of the time), is using a pure analytical approach.  Sure, teams can try and game the system there too, but it's a lot harder than with the RPI and scheduling, as a win in which they run up the score is also somewhat hurt by the drop their opponent's ranking takes after that game.

[may know]

Those rules would free up several spots for non-P6 teams.  I'd suggest even a few more things to make NCAA basketball more fair for the mid and low-majors: - Limit the number of total bids to 4 per conference. - Split the NCAA tourney money evenly between the 68 entrants (and their conferences); no additional shares for tournament wins as this unfairly benefits the P6 schools.I'm tired of seeing 75% of the tourney payouts going to the P6 schools that don't really need the money.  The NCAA could learn a thing or two from our Federal Government and design a system where the money is taken from the P6 schools and given to the mid and low-major teams to help them improve their programs and facilities.

I'd like to see the NCAA reflect more of China's government.

[VU2014]

I think a good start would be forcing teams to be at least have .500 conference records to receive at-large bids. That would create a sensible bare minimum standard. Obviously the P6 would fight tooth and nail because they want to get their mid-tier conference teams in tourney.

At-Large that would be eliminated from the 2018 Tourney:
-Alabama (8-10)
-Arizona State (8-10)
-Oklahoma (8-10)
-Syracuse (8-10)
-Texas (8-10)

It would be good for the sport and would put a greater emphasis on the importance on Conference play, which would be make TV networks happy.

[bbtds]

Those rules would free up several spots for non-P6 teams.  I'd suggest even a few more things to make NCAA basketball more fair for the mid and low-majors: - Limit the number of total bids to 4 per conference. - Split the NCAA tourney money evenly between the 68 entrants (and their conferences); no additional shares for tournament wins as this unfairly benefits the P6 schools.I'm tired of seeing 75% of the tourney payouts going to the P6 schools that don't really need the money.  The NCAA could learn a thing or two from our Federal Government and design a system where the money is taken from the P6 schools and given to the mid and low-major teams to help them improve their programs and facilities.

I'd like to see the NCAA reflect more of China's government.

h-e-double hockey sticks for you, comrade.

[IrishDawg]

I think a good start would be forcing teams to be at least have .500 conference records to receive at-large bids. That would create a sensible bare minimum standard. Obviously the P6 would fight tooth and nail because they want to get their mid-tier conference teams in tourney.

At-Large that would be eliminated from the 2018 Tourney:
-Alabama (8-10)/Mississippi State (9-9)
-Arizona State (8-10)/ There were 5 teams in the Pac 12 with above .500 records that didn't get in
-Oklahoma (8-10)/ Big 12 couldn't replace these, but it's by far the toughest basketball conference
-Syracuse (8-10)/ Louisville (9-9)
-Texas (8-10)

It would be good for the sport and would put a greater emphasis on the importance on Conference play, which would be make TV networks happy.

A lot of people on the TV networks have been advocating for this kind of change as well, so it's a reasonable bar to put up, but I think the challenge there is that the major conferences, in most of these cases could simply replace one school with another as I've shown above.  That doesn't necessarily make for a better tournament, as most of the schools that are listed as "on the bubble" are high major programs, as the 1 and 2 seeds in the NIT this year that could have qualified under your qualifications above were USC, Louisville, Saint Mary's, Marquette and Utah.

[wh]

Anyone who follows college sports knows that P-5 conferences run the NCAA. The last thing they're concerned about relative to at-large bids is being fair to all concerned. The only way to significantly elevate mid major presence in the NCAA Tournament is to add another round. That said, the powers-that-be will never approve it because it would benefit the mid major world disproportionately over P-5's.

[FieldGoodie05]

Anyone who follows college sports knows that P-5 conferences run the NCAA. The last thing they're concerned about relative to at-large bids is being fair to all concerned. The only way to significantly elevate mid major presence in the NCAA Tournament is to add another round. That said, the powers-that-be will never approve it because it would benefit the mid major world disproportionately over P-5's.

Completely agree.  I'd rather focus our attention at good competition OOC so we are ready for conference games.  We simply should not be concerned with the "haves" giving us "have nots" a fair shot.  It's a fools errand...

[VU2014]

A lot of people on the TV networks have been advocating for this kind of change as well, so it's a reasonable bar to put up, but I think the challenge there is that the major conferences, in most of these cases could simply replace one school with another as I've shown above.  That doesn't necessarily make for a better tournament, as most of the schools that are listed as "on the bubble" are high major programs, as the 1 and 2 seeds in the NIT this year that could have qualified under your qualifications above were USC, Louisville, Saint Mary's, Marquette and Utah.

Mid-Majors seem to be increasingly on the First 4 out bubble in recent years and lose out to mediocre P5 teams. Valpo itself got screwed in the first 4 out in the 15-16 season.