Poll: What is wrong with this Valpo Basketball team?

[vu72]

Where is the LEADERSHIP on this team?  They all seem to just be staring at their shoes.  Somebody needs to grab some guys by the throat and make it clear that this isn't going to happen any longer.  If I were Matt, I would start benching guys.  Play Kiser and McMillan and Stalling.  What will happen?  We will lose.  Oh wait, we are doing that with them on the bench so the result may be the same but, it might not or maybe, just maybe, a fire will be lit under a few guys who seem to be sleep walking right now.

[VU2014]

Honest Question here:

If you're AD, and this team once again plays, and loses on Thursday in St. Louis, do you make a change?

(Not asking if ml will make a change, would you?)

I'd give him 4 years but there is a disturbing trend going on. Coach Lottich might not be the guy and the AD needs to recognize that. Don't double down on a possible mistake. I completely understand the "hire from within" strategy but after talking to some people last night who are more basketball minded people, it appears none of Bryce's 3 assistants were head coaching material. Yes, excellent assistants but that is a very different thing than leading a program and coming up with the game planning and preparation. I want to emphasize the latter.

What's really tough is that Valpo has that huge 2020 recruiting class coming up and if you let Coach Lottich go then you start from 0. But he hasn't come close to earning a contract extension right now.

[M]

This is why it is so imperative that he figures this out ASAP.

[oklahomamick]

What is his current contract?  When is it up?

[VU2014]

What is his current contract?  When is it up?

I'm not sure but I've been wondering the same thing. I think it's pretty standard to give 4-5 year deals to new HCs.

[justducky]

Play Kiser and McMillan and Stalling.

Start them against PNW with the understanding that if they win they will also start against Illinois St. Start Jay also. His defense is getting back to normal but his offense still shows signs of the month plus off.

Hmmm!  Might as well make it a clean sweep and start Sackey as well.

[IrishDawg]

If you think the problem is more on the offense (ranked 212th in efficiency), one way to make it more efficient is for Evelyn to not use as many possessions.  Next to Sackey, who uses just under 5% of the teams total possessions on average in each game, Bakari is the least efficient offense player on this team by a fairly wide margin (JFL is next, and he's over 13 points higher in terms of efficiency), but he uses a greater percentage of the team's offensive possessions (just over 18% of the team's total possessions in a game on average).  The problem is I don't think you can simply bench him because there's not a lot of depth the team can turn to currently.

If you think the problem is on defense (ranked 178th in efficiency), then they need to figure out how to keep from getting dominated in the paint.  They're giving up the 7th most points (as a percentage to the total points given up) on 2 point field goals in the country, and are ranked 265th in 2 point field goal defense.  Likely on a related note, they are ranked 294th in defensive rebounding rate.

Me personally I think the bigger issue is on the defensive end.  Offense isn't always going to travel, but defense can regardless whether or not the shots are falling.  This team seems to be affected on the defensive end if their shots aren't falling on the offensive end, which is not a problem anyone wants to have.

[crusaderjoe]

The criticisms being leveled at the program for "hiring from within" are very perplexing to me. At the time Lottich was hired, we were following the Butler model, a model that had produced two Final Fours and had helped get Butler to a better athletic conference.  From that standpoint, the move made absolute sense, Greg Tonagel notwithstanding. IMO, it's unfair to throw stones at the AD now for the hiring process that took place then given that Valpo had technically followed the hire from within model from the 1980's.

If the Lottich era implodes (which by the way remains to be seen) and we subsequently continue to hire from within with average or below average results, throw stones at the AD then. 

[a3uge]

I think the problem is mostly talent. Lottich isn't the only one to blame here. These should Bryce's junior and senior recruits. Lottich decided to plug the roster gap with transfers, but as we've seen that doesn't always pan out. There's a reason why these guys didn't playing time at their bad power conference schools.


Lottich should get 100% of the blame for last year's class. The three freshmen were Mileek, Hazen, and Linssen. That's not going to cut it in the MVC. If I were Lottich I would start making Freeman the focal point of the offense and bench Bakari.

[justducky]

Lets talk guard play and depth.

Sackey is even quicker than I imagined and can get the ball to impossible places. Trouble is he hasn't yet learned what to do with it once he gets it there. I don't look for that to change any time soon. That leaves the core 3 plus Golder and Fazekas. Both of these guys have games better fitting at the 4. That leaves Evelyn, Freeman and Lavender to handle 30+ minutes each of the 120 minutes available. Some additional guard depth would really help.

A healthy Bradford would not have created an either or choice vs Lavender. Deion could have slid from the point to either the 2 or the 3 as the situation dictated. 12 minutes per game from Micah could have meant 4 additional minutes of rest for Javon, Bakari and Deion. Maybe that additional rest would have helped on the defensive end also.

[usc4valpo]

Times have changed. Valpo kept Tom Smith for 8 years-and actually give him tenure, while folks are asking for Lottich's outstretched not even after 3.

[valpo84]

3/22 3 pt FG vs TA&M, 3/16 3 pt FG vs BSU.  Fazekas 1/12 3 pt FG in 2 games, Bakari 2/12 3 pt FG.

I said it last year and I will say it again -- this is the team that can't shoot straight.  In today's college game, you have to knock down open look 3s.  You can't open the middle for driving if you don't hit the 3, if you post up and they double, they have to have someone hit an open look.  Yes, Bakari's shot rattled around on a number of looks.  Down 11 2d half, open 3 rattles out, heads drop, they hit back to back 3s and boom, it's a 17 pt game, set, match.  This is the most mentally fragile team I have seen in 30 years since Homer came.  Matt's first year was preservation of Alec at VU (many of you seem to forget how worried this Board was in losing Alec), Hazen was highly regarded, not just by this Board.  There are misses.  This team played hard defensively last night in the first half.  They can't score. They have opportunities and miss bunnies, mid-range and long-range.  Then pout that they miss shots. We need shooters, plain and simple.  Those teams that were successful had multiple 3 threats (Bogan, Broekhoff, Carter, etc.).  We have mismatched pieces and need continuity and buy-in.  But, there's no solutions down the bench.  This is what we have this year.  They did come out in the 2d half and played hard and had good energy so adjustments were successfully made (1-3-1, pushing tempo, etc.).

[SanityLost17]

Perhaps we are all underestimating the value Tevonn and Max brought last year even without having their best seasons.....

[vu72]

this is the team that can't shoot straight

Very true. I just looked back to 12-13 year and found our top five guys shot the following from the 3:

Broekoff   41.7
Bogan      40.2
Kenney    39.1
Boggs      34.8
Dority      31.1

As a team:  37.2

This year:

Fazekas   39.4
Golder     38.7
Freeman  29.4
Evelyn     29.2
Lavender 25.0

As a team: 32.0

We, at best, will be "streaky" and at worst, abysmal. 

[mj]

This year:

Fazekas   39.4
Golder     38.7
Freeman  29.4
Evelyn     29.2
Lavender 25.0

As a team: 32.0

I think these stats include the game against Concordia, which inflates things somewhat.

[Valpo89]

One thing to remember is there is a reason all the players are at Valpo. They have flaws, or they would have taken Power-5 offers (or stayed at one).
Maybe Bryce and Homer were better at masking the flaws.

[VU2014]

One thing to remember is there is a reason all the players are at Valpo. They have flaws, or they would have taken Power-5 offers (or stayed at one).
Maybe Bryce and Homer were better at masking the flaws.

Golder is probably one of my favorite players but he has become absolutely predictable. He doesn't pass the ball and the ball handling just isn't great. He does some things really well and other he needs to work on.

I agree with many others thoughts that we may have overrated the talent on this roster, but the coaches need to figure out a way to scheme better. Settling for bad shots at the end of the shot clock isn't acceptable. Also running the offense completely through Smits isn't a great option either. They need need to mix it up more. I'm just sick of seeing the same game plan being ran out there and it's based completely on streaky shoot and Lottich's excuse after the game is, "well we didn't shoot the ball great tonight and your not going to win many games when that happen." Really? Who would have guessed that.    Maybe it's a roster issue but I have a hard to not putting the blame on Coaching Staff for that. Last years class turned out to be a bust and Mileek is still a project. Micah hasn't developed into the player we hoped he could be before getting injured. Smits is a nice offensive player but has serious defensive/rebounding flaws in his game. I could go on and on.

The last 3 years have been mentally exhausting with this team for various reasons. It's about time we get our act together.

[VUBBFan]

Are we all just throwing in the towel on this team? Our record is about what I thought it might be at this time from our schedule. I was thinking 5 loses at this point.


We lost to WKU. That was not unexpected.

We lost to WV at their home. Did we really think we would win there?

We lost to Wake Forest. This we had a good chance to win but didn't

We lost to High Point. Which we should not have.


We lost badly to Ball State. Which had already beaten three other Valley teams and their loses were mainly to P5 teams so that lose was not totally unexpected either.

We lost to A&M at their home. I did not think we would win that one either, however I didn't think we'd be blown out.

We won good games at UNLV and G. Washington.

At the beging of the year I was expecting to have at least 5 loses at this time of the season. So in my mind, record wise, we are about where I thought we would be. Some of the games were ugly but with the excecption of High Point we did not lose any games that were suppose to be locked up wins.

Having said this I'm not going to tank this season yet. I'll jump overboard if in Conference we end up under .500. Until then I'm still on the boat hoping the shots finally start falling like rain as we get our act together.
 

[VU2014]

For me it's not about the wins and losses but more about how they have played in games. Particularly the last 3 have been abysmal. It's just a consistent trend with some of these performances.

[VUBBFan]

I agree, the last three games were abysmal, but I'm a hopelessly optimist Fan that still wants to see some spark of hope to cheer for until that spark is drowned out.
For a spark can sometimes become a raging fire. One can always wish.

[usc4valpo]

The issue is bigger than the team roster and coaching. There is a stench of apathy all around. Maybe a come to Jesus session at the conversation pit where they pass the joint around would help.

[crusaderjoe]

Times have changed. Valpo kept Tom Smith for 8 years-and actually give him tenure, while folks are asking for Lottich's outstretched not even after 3.

While times may have changed, the difference is that Tom Smith was the guy before Drew, and Matt Lottich is the guy who is not a Drew.  I think that's partly why the patience is running thin so quickly as it relates specifically to coaching.

There are some interesting similarities between Tom Smith and Matt Lottich:

-Tom Smith was part of the D-I transitional years.  Matt Lottich is part of the post-Drew transitional years.

-Tom Smith was the head coach when the school joined a tougher conference (ACMU).  Matt Lottich was the head coach when the school joined a tougher conference (MVC).

-Tom Smith didn't necessarily have a great facility to work with.  Matt Lottich doesn't necessarily have a great facility to work with.

-For one reason or another, Tom Smith had some players leave the program.  For one reason or another, Matt Lottich had some players leave the program.

And yet, you can't take away the fact that the one that has a regular season title is the one who's on the hot seat so quickly, all things considered.  Fandom can be something else sometimes.

[usc4valpo]

Joe, good report. I think Valpo is more committed to basketball today compared to the 80's, despite the fact that Smith was a very ineffective coach. However, it is fair to say that the overall Valpo commitment to basketball is still lacking compared to most school in the MVC or in similar situations.

[VUGrad1314]

What do you say we give Coach Lottich and the team a clean slate for conference play with the following expectations?

1. The team must show up and compete hard every game
2. Make tangible steady progress on offense defense and in rebounding and  in game adjustments.
3. Defend home court: Last year we lost 4 home MVC games This year let's shoot for 3 or less
4. Win on the road: Try to win at least 3 road games
5. Improve our conference position and conference record
6. Win at least one game in St Louis

Bonus points for:

.500 or better conference record

10+ MVC wins

12+ MVC wins

14+ MVC wins

Avoiding the Play in games

Top 5 finish

Top 3 finish

Conference Title

Each additional win in St Louis

NCAA appearance


If they hit 4 or more of the six and\or hit 3 bonus categories I agree to stop riding the team and coaches so hard A new set of expectations will be drafted next year. Who's with me?

[bbtds]

Times have changed. Valpo kept Tom Smith for 8 years-and actually give him tenure, while folks are asking for Lottich's outstretched not even after 3.

While times may have changed, the difference is that Tom Smith was the guy before Drew, and Matt Lottich is the guy who is not a Drew.  I think that's partly why the patience is running thin so quickly as it relates specifically to coaching.

There are some interesting similarities between Tom Smith and Matt Lottich:

-Tom Smith was part of the D-I transitional years.  Matt Lottich is part of the post-Drew transitional years.

-Tom Smith was the head coach when the school joined a tougher conference (ACMU).  Matt Lottich was the head coach when the school joined a tougher conference (MVC).

-Tom Smith didn't necessarily have a great facility to work with.  Matt Lottich doesn't necessarily have a great facility to work with.

-For one reason or another, Tom Smith had some players leave the program.  For one reason or another, Matt Lottich had some players leave the program.

And yet, you can't take away the fact that the one that has a regular season title is the one who's on the hot seat so quickly, all things considered.  Fandom can be something else sometimes.

Since Valpo went through the Drew era there certainly are greater expectations for Coach Lottich--mainly because he had the benefit of being an asst coach under Bryce Drew and because success has now become expected for the Valpo program. I wonder how many people thought the Valpo program would have the same success under Tom Smith that many fans think Matt Lottich should be expected to have at Valpo.