Game #24 Valpo @ Illinois State 2/5/19 @ 7pm espn+

[VU2014]

5th times the charm?

Let's break this losing streak. It will be a tough task against ISUr team that is finding it's groove. It makes all the sense in the world to assume we'll lose tomorrow but we're due for a game where the Basketball Gods bless us. Anything can happen tomorrow if we play stout defense and guys start knocking down shots. No Fazekas on Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/MichaelOsipoff/status/1092466369549996032
https://twitter.com/MichaelOsipoff/status/1092466963186630656
https://twitter.com/MichaelOsipoff/status/1092468878733725702
https://twitter.com/MichaelOsipoff/status/1092469675244564480

[M]

First to 55 wins.

[NativeCheesehead]

I don't usually drink during weeknight games, but I have a feeling I'll be making an exception.

[VU2014]

The Illinois State Game Thread: https://www.redbirdfan.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1392

[wh]

Sorry, but I don't see the Crusaders winning another game until Ryan comes back. In fact, an argument could be made that we're the worst team in the MVC right now. We at least have the most dysfunctional offense.

ILSU 75 Valpo 55

BTW the O/U is 132. To win at that number, we would have to score a minimum of 67 points. I would bet a lot of money against that happening.

[VU2010]

So, if we continue to go without Ryan and lose out, are we deeming that acceptable and OK with saying "just wait until next year" ...? Honestly asking to get a pulse on your thoughts.

Maybe I have too high of expectations. To me, it's about more than Ryan going down. I have a hard time chalking all this up to the loss of one player.

Why? Because there are common denominators at play and we're seeing patterns that point towards a downward trajectory. But, again I could be way off base and am honestly asking. Not trying to be Mrs. Negative here.

[crusader05]

I think we can win without Ryan but it requires two things to happen. 1. Bakari starts shooting more like he did last year. 2. We need everyone else to be back to full movement strength.

The problem with missing Ryan is more that we were supposed to have 2 shooters but Bakari disappeared after his surgery and seems to struggle mentally. So when Ryan went we basically lost all outside shooting. Which has minimized the damage Smits has shown he is capable of doing if he has some space. Without Shooters we need another offensive threat and that's where Golder came in. If he's not moving as best he can and Smits is not moving as best he can all of our best offensive weapons are either gone diminished, or easier to neutralize.

Sackey and Javonn are working on picking up the slack but they are still Freshman. Kiser is hustle and Mileek can be but he can also be a foul machine.

[NativeCheesehead]

2010,

Just speaking for myself, but I think expectations were unreasonably raised with the 4-0 start. Taking the whole season into consideration, this is a mediocre basketball team without an offensive identity. With the remaining schedule, it will be very hard to avoid Thursday night.

That being said, I do think this team should have a better record than the talent indicates, especially considering the noncon schedule.  That's on the coaching staff. Lottich deserves a chance to see this team through to the end of next year and see what they can do together. But I do have this fear we'll pull a Bradley and give him an extension this off season. The Dorow contract is too fresh in my mind.

[crusadermoe]

Yes, it's fair to see the glass half empty right now even though we are tied for both #4 and #7.    That loss to Mo State will haunt us in that pile of 5-5 teams.  We are tied now with them in the top two tie breakers; split head-to-head and best wins: (us - Illinois St) (them-Loyola).  So that loss could very well cost us a Thursday bye.

But.......if we can get Ryan back a week before the tourney and get all healthy at once maybe we sneak into the 6 seed and catch #3 in quarters.  I don't see a shallow team like ours reaching the Saturaday semifinals from a Thursday start.  Ryan's endurance and rusty shooting will still be x factors.

[vu72]

The problem with missing Ryan is more that we were supposed to have 2 shooters

Sure thing, but this is D1 basketball, one would assume that ALL our players could be reasonably expected to make some shots.  Here are some scary facts:  Ex-Ryan, the TEAM is shooting 68.8% from the free throw line and 29.5% from the 3.  You don't win game shooting like that, regardless of defensive effort.

What I witnessed last Saturday was a hesitancy to even shoot the 3.  Lots of driving in the lane and throwing up floaters, not using the glass, just hoping the shot falls.  With only one big in the game and four guards, rebounding was, and will in all likelihood, continue to be a struggle.

[crusader05]

We were pegged as a middle of the pack team. I think we could still pull that off but it's gonna take stealing at least one game we, on paper, shouldn't win (either tonight or loyola at home) and not dropping any more that we shouldn't.

The fits and starts of this team are so emotional because we get to build up a head of steam and then it's like getting banged around with the flaws shoved in your face over and over. If we're gonna to .500 then I'd rather we space out the wins and loses a bit to help with the perspective.

[SanityLost17]

I will stand by my comments from earlier this year.   With or without Fazekas this team needed to be an 11-7 team (2 games over .500) based on the roster we had returning from last year and the influx of talent we had coming in.    Anything less would be highly disappointing.   

Look to Drake for everything you need to know about anything.   Lost their best player and still finding ways to win.   Lost almost their entire roster from a year ago and started winning immediately.   Brand new coach getting it done right away.  I could go on and on.

[valpo64]

We have won  with some of the guys missing but to say we won't win another game until everyone is back is ridiculous.   We should have won 2 or 3 of these recent games but were unable to close them out.  The Evansville, Mo State, Drake and IN St I think were all winnable games.  Even when the guys are back it will take a game or 2 for them to get the feel back of having the starting 5 together again.  Then in the game when both our bigs fouled out we still competed.   Sure we are down and short-handed and maybe lacking some confidence but let's give these guys a break.  While some criticism is deserved there is room for some credit for performances under less than desirable circumstances  If there is any brighter side to our problems it is that some guys are getting experience they perhaps wouldn't get under normal conditions.  I think we will pull off a surprise or two before this season is over.  This is a very competitive league this year with many surprises like when Loyola got beat 70-35.  Could another happen tonight?  Maybe Sunday?  A win would be some real good medicine for our guys, including Coach L and staff.

[justducky]

So when Ryan went we basically lost all outside shooting. Which has minimized the damage Smits has shown he is capable of doing if he has some space. Without Shooters we need another offensive threat and that's where Golder came in. If he's not moving as best he can and Smits is not moving as best he can all of our best offensive weapons are either gone diminished, or easier to neutralize.

The difference between a crippled Valpo team and a healthy one would approximate to 80-120 RPI places. Having a critical mass of outside shooting compounds the value that Smits could provide. It is very difficult to space the floor properly with only 3 outside shooters. It is impossible to do with only 2.

I see some parallels with Feb 2012. That team had no contributing seniors, bunches of juniors, and high hopes for the future. They finished 2012 with a RPI in the 90's. Other than the late season Van Wijk incident that team was pretty healthy. With Kevin at 60%, Detroit boot stomped us at the ARC leading to the infamous McCallum ESPN camera dance. What if Broekhoff had gone down for 9 games? Where would they have been?

Longer term, I like our position today better than our going forward prospects in 2012.

[IrishDawg]

The difference between a crippled Valpo team and a healthy one would approximate to 80-120 RPI places. Having a critical mass of outside shooting compounds the value that Smits could provide. It is very difficult to space the floor properly with only 3 outside shooters. It is impossible to do with only 2.

I see some parallels with Feb 2012. That team had no contributing seniors, bunches of juniors, and high hopes for the future. They finished 2012 with a RPI in the 90's. Other than the late season Van Wijk incident that team was pretty healthy. With Kevin at 60%, Detroit boot stomped us at the ARC leading to the infamous McCallum ESPN camera dance. What if Broekhoff had gone down for 9 games? Where would they have been?

Longer term, I like our position today better than our going forward prospects in 2012.

I like the guys who have been hurt on the floor a lot better than on the bench, but 80-120 spots is probably more than what they're worth.  For instance, when Fazekas went down in the Bradley game, Valpo was 184th in kenpom.  Since his and the other injuries, the team has fallen about 30 spots.  Significant, but they've still been competitive for the most part in these games because the defense has been solid.

Overall, despite the injuries, Valpo's in a very positive spot.  Sackey and Freeman's development and additional playing time are really going to set the team up well for next year and down the road.  As for this season, moreso for weary legs than anything else it would be helpful to get some depth back in the lineup.

[VU2010]

Idk about y'all but I am not OK with our current rating of .... 219! If you are alright with that, you've got some loooooooooowwwwwwww expectations.

On the bright side, we're 219! Which is ironic because of the whole 2-1-9 thing. Bahaha

[crusader05]

There's a difference between being "alright" with it and being actively angry or upset about it. I think a lot of us are not alright with where we are and have voiced frustrations etc but I also think that there are people who look at some of the mitigating factors to help process the whole situation.

I think everyone here wants us to be better and thinks we can be better than we are (is there a fan base out there that doesn't?) and gets super annoyed with coaches and individual players. But I also think that there is nothing wrong either with people finding acceptance with where we are and positives. It's not making excuses or lowering the bar, it's just how you process and handle disappointing seasons.

[justducky]

I like the guys who have been hurt on the floor a lot better than on the bench, but 80-120 spots is probably more than what they're worth.  For instance, when Fazekas went down in the Bradley game, Valpo was 184th in kenpom.  Since his and the other injuries, the team has fallen about 30 spots.  Significant, but they've still been competitive for the most part in these games because the defense has been solid.

I'll state it a bit differently. Had Bradford and Sorolla been healthy for the non-con and were Fazekas, Golder, Evelyn (?) consistently near 100%; is this not a team with top of the Valley numbers potential? I referenced the theoretical RPI instead of NET or KP or Sag or WN for a reason (more volatility) Thoughts?.

[IrishDawg]

I'll state it a bit differently. Had Bradford and Sorolla been healthy for the non-con and were Fazekas, Golder, Evelyn (?) consistently near 100%; is this not a team with top of the Valley numbers potential? I referenced the theoretical RPI instead of NET or KP or Sag or WN for a reason (more volatility) Thoughts?.

Perhaps, I can't really say one way or another for sure.  What I can say is that all the teams ahead of Valpo are losing some major pieces, and Valpo should be significantly better with the additions of Gordon and Robinson and an offseason of development for Sackey and Freeman.  I do think as long as they're healthy and have some time to play as a unit before Arch Madness, they've got as good a shot as anyone to make a run in the MVC tourney.

[justducky]

Decisions decisions!

Tonight I can watch the game while I lie to myself about the bright future for Valpo basketball. Or------I can watch the president and followup color commentators lie to me about everything not basketball related.

Hmmm -----I trust my vision better than that of Trump----So----I'll cast my vote for ESPN+   

[FieldGoodie05]

I'll state it a bit differently. Had Bradford and Sorolla been healthy for the non-con and were Fazekas, Golder, Evelyn (?) consistently near 100%; is this not a team with top of the Valley numbers potential? I referenced the theoretical RPI instead of NET or KP or Sag or WN for a reason (more volatility) Thoughts?.

Perhaps, I can't really say one way or another for sure.  What I can say is that all the teams ahead of Valpo are losing some major pieces, and Valpo should be significantly better with the additions of Gordon and Robinson and an offseason of development for Sackey and Freeman.  I do think as long as they're healthy and have some time to play as a unit before Arch Madness, they've got as good a shot as anyone to make a run in the MVC tourney.

Solid point, though I believe we will miss Lavender much more than is obvious right now.  He is one of a few that gets to the rim with a high finishing % in doing so.  Also his handles (low'ish TO) will be sorely missed.

[bbtds]

Solid point, though I believe we will miss Lavender much more than is obvious right now.  He is one of a few that gets to the rim with a high finishing % in doing so.  Also his handles (low'ish TO) will be sorely missed.

Also Deion's rebounding has been critical. I believe he is #2 in rebounding next to Derrik.

[FieldGoodie05]

Solid point, though I believe we will miss Lavender much more than is obvious right now.  He is one of a few that gets to the rim with a high finishing % in doing so.  Also his handles (low'ish TO) will be sorely missed.

Also Deion's rebounding has been critical. I believe he is #2 in rebounding next to Derrik.

Well said, I had forgotten just how prolific he Rebounds from the G position.

[bbtds]

Missed the start of the game. I figured we'd be down 4 or 5 when I got the ESPN+ broadcast on and my God we are up by double digits.

[VALPO LI]

"I don't usually drink during weeknight games, but I have a feeling I'll be making an exception."

Hold off on pouring that drink Native Cheese Head!