What does success look like for next year?

[VU2014]

This season has almost lowered my expectations for next season.

I want to say tourney or bust but that's a little unrealistic expectations. This 19-20 senior laden season has been talked about for years now it's suppose to be THE YEAR. It's make or break for this squad. If we don't finish at the top of the Valley or aren't viewed as a serious contender to win it all at Arch Madness than this season would be a failure in my eyes. If we're healthy and have that many upperclassmen and can't be considered one the favorites than it will be a disappointing year in my eyes.

[vu72]

Great article on what we need to do next year and in the off season, by Robbie Weinstein.

https://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/robbie-weinstein-if-injuries-strike-again-valpo-needs-better-fall/article_cf3ceb32-8cef-5f87-8d81-abbd28441bb0.html

[nkvu]

I hate to be a Debbie (or Donnie if you prefer) Downer here but I have lowered my expectations considerably for next year. I really only see one Senior/ grad student who made any progress this year and that's Smits and he is about where I thought he should have been last year.  Having a senior laden team should be great as you should have players with three years of experience. But there is a difference between three years of experience and one year of experience three times which is about the performance level they've shown this year. Their shooting has dropped off, they still don't make free throws consistently, and they turn it over way too much. Injuries may account for some of the shooting drop off, but they don't take care of the ball and they don't make free throws when they need to. No excuse for those things. One more win in conference, maybe two if they somehow pull out a win Saturday, is not much improvement year over year. So I have set my expectations for next year the same as they were for this year. That is 5th place in conference. Difference is for this year I thought I was being conservative, while for next year I think I'm being optimistic. Now if they somehow manage better than 5th, I will consider that a successful season for this team.

[SanityLost17]

Clearly if we were healthy we would have had a better record, probably avoiding the play in game. But 12-6? I find that hard to process. I get the point differential. But this is still the team that lost at home to UIndy and High Point, got destroyed by Ball State, and lacks any meaningful wins.

I understand the argument, because I don't believe it's a talent issue. So we come back to coaching........

And I hate to keep coming back to this but MOST and Drake have first year head coaches with massive roster turnover. That fact alone negates some of the "Trust the Process" rhetoric we hear.

11 point loss @ home to Drake..   No Smits, Golder, or Fazekas with Bakari playing the season at like 60%. 
OT loss to MoSt..  No Golder, Fazekas with Baraki playing the season at like 605
9 point lead with 7 to go point Meltdown against Loyola...   No Fazekas with both Golder AND Bakari shadows of their former selves. 
OT loss to IndSt...  Fazekas/Golder/Bakari all shadows of their former selves. 

There are your 4 wins right there.   Maybe we lose 1 of them but then I think we probably steal one of the IndSt/Eville road games. 

Don't let your anger for Lottich blind you from what is right in front of you.   Those 4 games were loses because WE HAVE NO DEPTH and the 3 players talked about MOST on this board prior to the season were either out or shadows of their former selves.   

[bbtds]

Great article on what we need to do next year and in the off season, by Robbie Weinstein.

https://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/robbie-weinstein-if-injuries-strike-again-valpo-needs-better-fall/article_cf3ceb32-8cef-5f87-8d81-abbd28441bb0.html

"Injuries are a part of basketball," Fazekas said last week. Valparaiso knows this, as Lottich has gone to great lengths not to make "excuses" for his team's recent failures.

Really! Maybe he's talking about Lottich's quotes in the Times but in press conferences and the weekly coaches show Lottich has done nothing but make excuses which has been well documented on this message board.

[NativeCheesehead]

Agreed, I've enjoyed Robbie's writing this year and appreciate having a fresh set of eyes on the program. But this article says nothing. First of all, yes the line on excuses was laughable, and maybe the quotation marks there was a wink and a nod to that. So we need better fall back options? Agreed, but there wasn't really any suggestions there. Pursue a good 3 pt shooter as a grad transfer if/when a scholarship opens up? Look into bringing in a "shot doctor" or something similar as part of an offseason program? Redesign the offense (please) to not break down when one reverse pass is cut off.

"The Crusaders need to dedicate as many resources as possible to grooming Robinson, Gordon and Freeman-Liberty to function as go-to scorers if necessary." That just doesn't bring any new ideas to the table.

[EddieCabot]

Great article on what we need to do next year and in the off season, by Robbie Weinstein.

https://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/robbie-weinstein-if-injuries-strike-again-valpo-needs-better-fall/article_cf3ceb32-8cef-5f87-8d81-abbd28441bb0.html

Nice article.  I see that Coach Lottich mentioned they would work to determine if injuries could be reduced.  I know many on the board have claimed all injuries are just "bad luck" and aren't preventable, but I don't necessarily agree.  At least half the available players have suffered ankle injuries during the season, so I'd at least be exploring preventative stretching/strengthening of the lower leg and foot.  Were the players taped or wearing braces when injured?  Were their shoes worn and lacking support?

Ultimately, there may be nothing that can be done, but it would be negligent to not at least take a closer look at prevention.

[valpo64]

I would like  to see "Plum" discuss and evaluate  the present and future outlooks for the other MVC teams relating to their finish this season, beginning with Loyola, Southern Illinois and Evansville.

[FWalum]

Clearly if we were healthy we would have had a better record, probably avoiding the play in game. But 12-6? I find that hard to process. I get the point differential. But this is still the team that lost at home to UIndy and High Point, got destroyed by Ball State, and lacks any meaningful wins.

I understand the argument, because I don't believe it's a talent issue. So we come back to coaching........

And I hate to keep coming back to this but MOST and Drake have first year head coaches with massive roster turnover. That fact alone negates some of the "Trust the Process" rhetoric we hear.

So you evidently think that being 5-1 against 5 of the top 6 teams in the conference to start conference play was just a fluke? With out the injuries and the subsequent loss of confidence in the offense I think this team could have easily been 12-6.  I emphasis the word team because as I have said before, this group does not have a "complete" player on the roster, it requires all of the working parts to compliment each other in order to win games.

Comparing Drake and VU is not apples to apples.  After the loss of Norton the Drake roster has been completely stable with the same rotation.  If a similar player (Tremell Murphy for instance) on the Drake roster would have had the same injury as Golder and other injuries had required rotation changes, I think that Drake could have easily mirrored what has happened to VU.  Drake lost 3 of the 4 games when Norton was lost and before the current starting rotation came together.  Valpo has not had that luxury, as the lineup has fluctuated with players coming in and out of the rotation and quite frankly players never getting back close to healthy.

I definitely think some or most of this is due to injury or recovery (Bakari) type issues, but go to this stat page and tell me that our roster is matching up favorably with other talent in the MVC
MVC Conference Statistical Leaders

[SanityLost17]

Great article on what we need to do next year and in the off season, by Robbie Weinstein.

https://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/robbie-weinstein-if-injuries-strike-again-valpo-needs-better-fall/article_cf3ceb32-8cef-5f87-8d81-abbd28441bb0.html

Nice article.  I see that Coach Lottich mentioned they would work to determine if injuries could be reduced.  I know many on the board have claimed all injuries are just "bad luck" and aren't preventable, but I don't necessarily agree.  At least half the available players have suffered ankle injuries during the season, so I'd at least be exploring preventative stretching/strengthening of the lower leg and foot.  Were the players taped or wearing braces when injured?  Were their shoes worn and lacking support?

Ultimately, there may be nothing that can be done, but it would be negligent to not at least take a closer look at prevention.

Great argument.   I have been coaching for 9 years (different sport) and I can tell you I had the most injuries in my first 3 years.  Some in my second 3 years.  And very few in my last 3 years.    Knowing when to push and when to hold back is a real thing that takes experience.  Perhaps fire the strength and conditioning coach?   

[bigmosmithfan1]

Robbie's column was good, but there's another element here -- don't redshirt guys who are otherwise healthy or eligible. Playing an untested freshman is better than playing nobody, or having to go with seven or eight guys night after night through the grind of a conference season.

Ball State has seen their season unravel similarly this year due to injuries during conference play, and there's been a lot of criticism of their coaching staff on social media for choosing to redshirt their two incoming freshmen this year even as the roster grew perilously thin (one of the players being redshirted was an Indiana All-Star last year and almost certainly could have contributed enough to flip a few of their close losses this season).

[elephtheria47]

Gordon will help free up the offense next year. Hopefully fazekas is healthy for the entire season. We need another consistent scorer to go with Freeman. Talent level should be there. Freeman, gordon, fazekas,  and smits should be a really solid offensive group. Cautiously optimistic about 1 or 2 but we should absolutely be in the top half.

[justducky]

My top 70 prediction would translate to 12-6 minimum. My best case (13-5) would require luck with everyone returning healthy and avoiding any major injuries. Remember that the conference RPI and NET should rise significantly and perhaps dramatically. Our rise could be the best in the Valley.

Mileek gave us 10 good minutes against Loyola and that is about it. I think he goes--his choice. This could benefit him and the team. I just don't see where he will find any playing time.

Sackey has started 17 games, played 550 minutes for an average of 18.3 per game. I can imagine him making big improvements and still seeing flat or reduced minutes. The way his role develops will tell us volumes about our total team potential. The competition will require him to deliver on some of his promise.

[crusader05]

I don't think Milleek goes. I still think the most likely is one of the centers. Either Sorrola decides to go play abroad and make some money or Smits decides he's okay with sitting more to play for a higher level team.

I'd also say either Micah or Bakari might leave based on injuries. Back injuries are horrible to recover from and if I was Bakari I wouldn't want to mentally put myself through another year like this if the recovery isn't there.

My guess is we lose 1-2 of our seniors and that we shouldn't replace them with redshirt transfers unless we absolutely have too. One planned redshirt a season is find, but two means you're risking a lot of issues with injuries popping up.

[vu72]

Robbie's column was good, but there's another element here -- don't redshirt guys who are otherwise healthy or eligible. Playing an untested freshman is better than playing nobody, or having to go with seven or eight guys night after night through the grind of a conference season.

Ball State has seen their season unravel similarly this year due to injuries during conference play, and there's been a lot of criticism of their coaching staff on social media for choosing to redshirt their two incoming freshmen this year even as the roster grew perilously thin (one of the players being redshirted was an Indiana All-Star last year and almost certainly could have contributed enough to flip a few of their close losses this season).

Fair enough, however, remember that when the transfers were added and the resulting sit a year came into play, Coach was assuming we would also have a healthy Micah Bradford, who showed a lot of improvement when he switched to the point last year.  So we started the year with 10 scholarship players.  That pushed Sackey to play big minutes.  Last year Micah had 68 assists to 38 turnovers, and, although he wasn't a very consistent 3 point shooter, clearly had the ability to knock down those shots.

[PlumStreetBum]

I would like  to see "Plum" discuss and evaluate  the present and future outlooks for the other MVC teams relating to their finish this season, beginning with Loyola, Southern Illinois and Evansville.

This sounds fun, but it would be a largely statistical analysis since I don't have time to watch many games that Valpo isn't playing in.

I just might do it though, and I'll strive to be critical of every coach in the Valley just to be as even-handed as possible 

[a3uge]

I just want this team to be fun to watch again. When they're not frustrating, they're incredibly boring. They barely attempt any 3s, and when they do, it's ugly. They don't play in transition, don't play small, and don't move the ball around well. I don't think I've seen a transition 3 in three years. Even their wins are boring. Nobody wants to watch their team score 55 points and shoot 43% in a win.

I hope Lottich realizes he's on the hot seat and opens up the offense a little bit. These games are just brutal to watch.

[oklahomamick]

Absolutely agree.  I have been trying to say that exact thing. 

Being on the hot seat with fans is different than being on the hot seat with the AD. 

[VUGrad1314]

But is he on the hot seat with the AD? I have no doubt he is with the fans but what does the ADthink of this? It can't (or at least it shouldn't ) sit well with him. After all, his legacy is tied to our post Drew success. He did not hire the Drews he gets no credit for that success outside of the conference moves. How he'll be remembered is tied to how this coach and the next one if need be perform. I don't want to sound harsh but for me it's that simple.

[VU2014]

But is he on the hot seat with the AD? I have no doubt he is with the fans but what does the ADthink of this? It can't (or at least it shouldn't ) sit well with him. After all, his legacy is tied to our post Drew success. He did not hire the Drews he gets no credit for that success outside of the conference moves. How he'll be remembered is tied to how this coach and the next one if need be perform. I don't want to sound harsh but for me it's that simple.

I agree to a certain extent. I really like MLB, but if Lottich does turn out to be a dud and sets the program back it will be a major black eye on his legacy. But when he knows ML isn't the guy anymore that is the time he has to know it's time to move on. Don't wait out the rest of the contract if he gets that extension. Idk maybe Lottich is the guy still but it doesn't take a basketball savant to know things haven't worked out the last 2 seasons. I just hope he's talking to others in the basketball industry when evaluating Lottich's performance. Things can't just be blamed on injuries.

I'd also add his legacy will be heavily weighted on if he can get major ARC renovations completed.

[VUGrad1314]

But is he on the hot seat with the AD? I have no doubt he is with the fans but what does the ADthink of this? It can't (or at least it shouldn't ) sit well with him. After all, his legacy is tied to our post Drew success. He did not hire the Drews he gets no credit for that success outside of the conference moves. How he'll be remembered is tied to how this coach and the next one if need be perform. I don't want to sound harsh but for me it's that simple.

I agree to a certain extent. I really like MLB, but if Lottich does turn out to be a dud and sets the program back it will be a major black eye on his legacy. But when he knows ML isn't the guy anymore that is the time he has to know it's time to move on. Don't wait out the rest of the contract if he gets that extension. Idk maybe Lottich is the guy still but it doesn't take a basketball savant to know things haven't worked out the last 2 seasons. I just hope he's talking to others in the basketball industry when evaluating Lottich's performance. Things can't just be blamed on injuries. I'd also add his legacy will be heavily weighted on if he can get major ARC renovations completed.

Should we really hold that against him given the incredible and unfair headwinds he faces from this stubborn anti-athletics administration? I mean ARC renos? That sounds like work... Can't we just keep sponging off the MVC Tournament representatives and the credits they generate? That's free money and doesn't require us to do anything. We like that.

[valpopal]

But is he on the hot seat with the AD? I have no doubt he is with the fans but what does the ADthink of this? It can't (or at least it shouldn't ) sit well with him. After all, his legacy is tied to our post Drew success. He did not hire the Drews he gets no credit for that success outside of the conference moves. How he'll be remembered is tied to how this coach and the next one if need be perform. I don't want to sound harsh but for me it's that simple.

I agree to a certain extent. I really like MLB, but if Lottich does turn out to be a dud and sets the program back it will be a major black eye on his legacy. But when he knows ML isn't the guy anymore that is the time he has to know it's time to move on. Don't wait out the rest of the contract if he gets that extension. Idk maybe Lottich is the guy still but it doesn't take a basketball savant to know things haven't worked out the last 2 seasons. I just hope he's talking to others in the basketball industry when evaluating Lottich's performance. Things can't just be blamed on injuries. I'd also add his legacy will be heavily weighted on if he can get major ARC renovations completed.

Should we really hold that against him given the incredible and unfair headwinds he faces from this stubborn anti-athletics administration? I mean ARC renos? That sounds like work... Can't we just keep sponging off the MVC Tournament representatives and the credits they generate? That's free money and doesn't require us to do anything. We like that.

Time for a couple reality checks: 1) I doubt Lottich would not be allowed to complete his contract and show what he can do with next year's team, which everyone felt would be promising with so many seniors (assuming they all stay) and the two transfers, especially since the first two years in the MVC were with teams mostly recruited for the Horizon League and hampered by a sudden absence of the leading scorers (Burton and Fazekas). Continuing as coach next year will be up to Lottich, and I think (hope) the plan is that Matt can right the ship next season the way Drake did this year and Loyola the year before. 2) As much as I would like to see changes in facilities, perhaps like those at the Gentile Center in Loyola, unless there are private donors who are going to give a large sum specifically for the ARC, there likely will be no significant renovations in the next few years. Due to budget limitations, I believe Heckler is constrained in spending, making him reluctant to divert much new funding to athletics, and if he did there would be strong opposition from many on campus.

[VUGrad1314]

Budget constraints? But the endowment drive is going well and generating great returns. I understand that not everything in an endowment is liquid but it can't be that dire can it? What is causing these budget issues?

Our program is in very choppy waters right now. We may not have a couple of years to wait.

[Valpo2013]

Budget constraints? But the endowment drive is going well and generating great returns. I understand that not everything in an endowment is liquid but it can't be that dire can it? What is causing these budget issues?

Our program is in very choppy waters right now. We may not have a couple of years to wait.

You want changes?
Stop donating money
Tell them why

My parents have donated since I was there and I have also been a contributor although not as much as them
For what?
Not sure at this point....

Stop going to games
If enough people show their displeasure maybe there will be changes..and not just in terms of what has been mentioned here but other issues

As far as resources....From what I remember and I'm sure it's no different...the basketball team has the best of everything...much different than those of us that were on other athletic teams

[mj]

Budget constraints? But the endowment drive is going well and generating great returns. I understand that not everything in an endowment is liquid but it can't be that dire can it? What is causing these budget issues?

Honestly, I'm a little worried about the university. Advancement and Admissions are the only two areas where I interact with the school on any meaningful basis and I've come away thinking that things are a mess.

I think the plan was to grow enrollment to around 6K students. I'm not sure they're anywhere near that. Administrators were hired in anticipation for a boom that never came.   

Also, in 2017 the market was booming, so everyone's endowments were generating great returns. Would be interested in seeing how our returns compared to similar schools.