Transfers

[VUGrad1314]

I had a hard time hearing and accepting the mass exodus.  I guess I just wanted Daniel and Mileek and the others to be successful after watching them for the last few years.  You become invested in them as a fan.   

However I have a overwhelming amount of anticipation for next year and more excited about seeing Valpo play than I've had had in many many years.  I don't know why.  Maybe it feels like a fresh new start with the team or maybe not being able to see games at the ARC in person. But man do I have very strong interest in next season.   

Or maybe just maybe we've finally turned the corner and will begin to get our legs under us in this conference in a significant way next year. With how good the MVC should be I will take a fifth place finish but I obviously hope for more.

[valpotx]

I had a hard time hearing and accepting the mass exodus.  I guess I just wanted Daniel and Mileek and the others to be successful after watching them for the last few years.  You become invested in them as a fan.   

However I have a overwhelming amount of anticipation for next year and more excited about seeing Valpo play than I've had had in many many years.  I don't know why.  Maybe it feels like a fresh new start with the team or maybe not being able to see games at the ARC in person. But man do I have very strong interest in next season.   

Hold up...who are you, and what did you do with Chairback?

[vu72]

I had a hard time hearing and accepting the mass exodus

Mass exodus indeed.  But, we were hardly alone.  The current total in the transfer portal is 1603.  For those scoring at home that is a 56.5% increase over last year.  Having said that, I'm with chairback on the hope for better days ahead and the positive outlook for Valpo basketball.  Hopefully it will be a very exciting time.

[vu72]

Life just got a little bit easier.  Elijah Childs is in the transfer portal.

[IndyValpo]

Am I correct that everyone who played last year received an extra year meaning the transfer portal will be buzzing for 3 more years. I assume only grad transfers being instantly eligible.

Also individual career records could be broken by guys/gals playing 5 years. Do they get an *?

[valpotx]

Life just got a little bit easier.  Elijah Childs is in the transfer portal.

He needed a new start anyways, as his reputation was going to travel along with him every stop in the MVC...

[tjjvalpo]

So, the general feeling is that we upgraded with the players that we are bringing in versus who we have lost. I am curious-has anyone looked at how we compare to other teams in MVC?

[crusader05]

I can't imagine the transfer portal will be humming along this much over the next year or two just because the constraint on spots is just going to get worse as coaches wnat to bring in high school recruits as well.

[humbleopinion]

I can't imagine the transfer portal will be humming along this much over the next year or two just because the constraint on spots is just going to get worse as coaches wnat to bring in high school recruits as well.

I agree.  It appears that about 40% of the athletes that have entered the portal have not yet found a new school.

[crusader05]

I tend to think that eventually this transfer portal will level out, it will most likely always be higher than it was but as coaches learn to recruit with the portal in mind and it becomes a more risky proposition I could see the numbers dipping down.

Programs will develop to either live and die by the portal and others will adjust their recruiting to be more cautious about types of players they bring in.

[wh]

I can't imagine the transfer portal will be humming along this much over the next year or two just because the constraint on spots is just going to get worse as coaches wnat to bring in high school recruits as well.

I agree.  It appears that about 40% of the athletes that have entered the portal have not yet found a new school.

It appears that some players are going to understand for the first time that they have been getting "paid" to play college basketball in the form of free tuition, housing, fees, food, etc., when they're on the outside looking in.

[David81]

My new hypothesis about the transfer portal and NCAA transfer rules, as applied to mid-majors:

1. Stars (e.g., JFL) and budding stars (e.g., JO) at mid-majors will be increasingly hot commodities both for P6 schools looking to bolster their rosters and for other mid-majors who can offer a seemingly better fit. This may become the mid-major equivalent of one-and-done, or maybe two-and-through, faced by big name programs with their top recruits looking to the NBA draft.

2. Role and bench players at P6 schools will increasingly look to mid-majors as second chances to be successful starters, but most will not be genuine stars at their new schools. Instead, they will most likely be solid starters and key reserves. The ones who become standouts could be the difference between a decent season and an NCAA tournament season.

3. Roster construction at the mid-major level will be an annual re-sorting exercise, changing on a dime, rather than a multi-year planning process. The mid-major that retains its star players for 4 years will be among the unusual, lucky ones.

[vu84v2]

My new hypothesis about the transfer portal and NCAA transfer rules, as applied to mid-majors:

1. Stars (e.g., JFL) and budding stars (e.g., JO) at mid-majors will be increasingly hot commodities both for P6 schools looking to bolster their rosters and for other mid-majors who can offer a seemingly better fit. This may become the mid-major equivalent of one-and-done, or maybe two-and-through, faced by big name programs with their top recruits looking to the NBA draft.

2. Role and bench players at P6 schools will increasingly look to mid-majors as second chances to be successful starters, but most will not be genuine stars at their new schools. Instead, they will most likely be solid starters and key reserves. The ones who become standouts could be the difference between a decent season and an NCAA tournament season.

3. Roster construction at the mid-major level will be an annual re-sorting exercise, changing on a dime, rather than a multi-year planning process. The mid-major that retains its star players for 4 years will be among the unusual, lucky ones.

I don't disagree with these points, but I also contend that mid-majors in their recruiting may place a greater emphasis on finding players who are more likely to stay with their program for three or four years (prioritizing that, to some degree, over talent). Most of the mid-major teams who have advanced in the NCAA tournament over the last 20 years have had quite a few players who had been with that program for two or three years.

[wh]

My new hypothesis about the transfer portal and NCAA transfer rules, as applied to mid-majors:

1. Stars (e.g., JFL) and budding stars (e.g., JO) at mid-majors will be increasingly hot commodities both for P6 schools looking to bolster their rosters and for other mid-majors who can offer a seemingly better fit. This may become the mid-major equivalent of one-and-done, or maybe two-and-through, faced by big name programs with their top recruits looking to the NBA draft.

2. Role and bench players at P6 schools will increasingly look to mid-majors as second chances to be successful starters, but most will not be genuine stars at their new schools. Instead, they will most likely be solid starters and key reserves. The ones who become standouts could be the difference between a decent season and an NCAA tournament season.

3. Roster construction at the mid-major level will be an annual re-sorting exercise, changing on a dime, rather than a multi-year planning process. The mid-major that retains its star players for 4 years will be among the unusual, lucky ones.

Yep, multi-year recruiting plans will become basically extinct. Historically, recruiting has revolved around a known variable - players in their final year of eligibility. That will still be important, but may in fact become secondary to recruiting the portal in the 30-60 day period following the end of the season. Why? Because, in most cases, incoming transfers will have more impact on next year's season than incoming freshmen.

Once we get past the extra year of eligibility anomaly, when the deck gets reshuffled with transfers moving from 1 program to another, theoretically half of all programs will have improved their prospects; the other half will be worse off. Recruiting the portal will become a critical recruiting component.

As to Valpo, IMO there is little doubt that next year's "post-portal" roster is significantly better than our "pre-portal" roster. Not only are we among the "winners, we could be in the top half of that half. '1314 stated that he would settle for 5th and hope for more. Personally, I expect a top 3 finish, but will begrudgingly settle for 4th.

[wh]

Here's what "turning on a dime" doesn't mean. It doesn't mean that it's ok to lose early season games because we haven't had time to work on certain offensive or defensive schemes, as Bryce used to be famous for saying. Or, treating early season losses as if they're meaningless exhibition games with dismissive Matt/Luke quips like "what counts is who's playing the best basketball in March, or "it may not show on the scoreboard, but we're getting better." Those lines may have worked in the Horizon or Mid Con, but they ring pretty hollow in a league where winning or losing early season games becomes critical in deciding at-large bids. It's also incumbent on every team in the Valley to win as many OOC games as possible to raise the league's NET. However difficult it was in the past to get the players fully prepared from game-1, it's going to be more difficult now than ever before, but never more important.

[wh]

Two instances of losing games due to lack of preparation are "indelible in my hippocampus." They are unique, given that both occurred at the end of the season, not the beginning. They happened to different coaches, yet were identical in nature.

Can anyone guess the games I'm referring to? If no one comes up with the answer, I'll add some hints.

[vu72]

Two instances of losing games due to lack of preparation are "indelible in my hippocampus." They are unique, given that both occurred at the end of the season, not the beginning. They happened to different coaches, yet were identical in nature.

Can anyone guess the games I'm referring to? If no one comes up with the answer, I'll add some hints.

Our loss to Loyola on 2/17 and SIU's loss to us on 2/21?

[wh]

Good guess, but not the games I'm thinking of.

Hint: These identical coaching blunders happened in back-to-back seasons under 2 different head coaches.

[vu84v2]

I am thinking the loss to Miami (FL) in the NIT is one of them, so given that it is two different coaches I will say that the other is the CIT tournament game against Iona the year before. But this is just a guess.

[wh]

Good guess, but not the games I'm thinking of.

Hint: These identical coaching blunders happened in back-to-back seasons under 2 different head coaches.

Not what I'm thinking of, 84v2, but actually a very good guess given the limited amount of information you had to work with. This next hint may add some clarity.

New hint:
• 2 games
• identical blunders
• 2 different coaches
• back-to-back seasons
• end of the season, not the beginning
• NEW HINT - These identical coaching blunders occurred in preparation for the game, not during the game itself.

[crusader05]

I believe it's not using the extra day of shoot around time for the final Horizon League conference game under Bryce's last year and Matt not doing it either under his first season

[wh]

I believe it's not using the extra day of shoot around time for the final Horizon League conference game under Bryce's last year and Matt not doing it either under his first season

...and the winner is crusader05!!!

• Inexplicably, Bryce decided not to go up to Detroit a day early and use their scheduled shoot around on a court we had never played on before. We lost to GB in OT. We were heavily favored.
• Incredibly, Matt pulled exactly the same blunder the next year. We lost by 2 to a hapless Milwaukee team that we drummed twice during the regular season.

[elephtheria47]

If it's 2 seasons with 2 coaches, can it be someone else's fault other than the coach? AD? Higher admin?

Does the coach get to decide when the team travels to the tournament? Could AD/higher admin look to save an extra day of travel etc? I honestly don't know.

[wh]

If it's 2 seasons with 2 coaches, can it be someone else's fault other than the coach? AD? Higher admin?

Does the coach get to decide when the team travels to the tournament? Could AD/higher admin look to save an extra day of travel etc? I honestly don't know.

As inexplicable as it was then, imagine it happening now. This board would be on fire. lol

[VUBBFan]

If it's 2 seasons with 2 coaches, can it be someone else's fault other than the coach? AD? Higher admin? Does the coach get to decide when the team travels to the tournament? Could AD/higher admin look to save an extra day of travel etc? I honestly don't know.

As inexplicable as it was then, imagine it happening now. This board would be on fire. lol

Less we forget the game against Milwaukee, I believe the fact Peters was out and it was either Tevon or Shane played with the Flu were a major factors in that loss.