MBB 2019-2020

[vok22]

I created my best attempt at a regression based on how 5 major CBB statistics (NET, PPG, Opponent PPG, and SOS) relate to Valpo final scores (negetives for losses and positives for wins). I only created it two games ago but in hindsight it predicted the winner of 24 of our 27 D1 games correctly (14 out of 15 in conference). It had us beating Illinois State by 2 and losing to Drake by 2. It has us beating Bradley by 1 and Missouri State by 3, while losing to Indiana State by 6. I would be very encouraged by that and that's what I am rolling with.

[4throwfan]

I created my best attempt at a regression based on how 5 major CBB statistics (NET, PPG, Opponent PPG, and SOS) relate to Valpo final scores (negetives for losses and positives for wins). I only created it two games ago but in hindsight it predicted the winner of 24 of our 27 D1 games correctly (14 out of 15 in conference). It had us beating Illinois State by 2 and losing to Drake by 2. It has us beating Bradley by 1 and Missouri State by 3, while losing to Indiana State by 6. I would be very encouraged by that and that's what I am rolling with.

That puts us at 9-9 in conference.  Not sure whether that results in a Thursday game.  However, at the beginning of the year, I think that many posters were asserting that getting to .500 was a good step in the right direction, since VU finished 7-11 last year, and 6-12 in the previous year.  I agree that it is a step up from previous years in the conference.  The debate could have been whether the first year was a sufficiently high starting point and whether the positive progression is good enough.  If the progression continues, then next year we could reasonably expect 11-7. 

I don't think that the first year record was good enough.  However, I do recognize that the progression since then has been positive.  I think that we should let that continue.  Speaking for myself, I'm not going to clamor for wholesale changes, including a coaching change, or stop sitting in the 4th row at home games, until the trend reverses. 

[FWalum]

Don't know if any of you listen to the MVC coaches teleconference interviews at all.  Here is a link to Matt's 2/24 interview after the Bradley win. https://soundcloud.com/mvcsports/matt-lottich-145721048

Here is the link to the page that has all the other coaches interviews. http://mvc-sports.com/news/2020/2/25/mvc-mens-basketball-coaches-teleconference-feb-24-2020.aspx

[SanityLost17]

I created my best attempt at a regression based on how 5 major CBB statistics (NET, PPG, Opponent PPG, and SOS) relate to Valpo final scores (negetives for losses and positives for wins). I only created it two games ago but in hindsight it predicted the winner of 24 of our 27 D1 games correctly (14 out of 15 in conference). It had us beating Illinois State by 2 and losing to Drake by 2. It has us beating Bradley by 1 and Missouri State by 3, while losing to Indiana State by 6. I would be very encouraged by that and that's what I am rolling with.

That puts us at 9-9 in conference.  Not sure whether that results in a Thursday game.  However, at the beginning of the year, I think that many posters were asserting that getting to .500 was a good step in the right direction, since VU finished 7-11 last year, and 6-12 in the previous year.  I agree that it is a step up from previous years in the conference.  The debate could have been whether the first year was a sufficiently high starting point and whether the positive progression is good enough.  If the progression continues, then next year we could reasonably expect 11-7. 

I don't think that the first year record was good enough.  However, I do recognize that the progression since then has been positive.  I think that we should let that continue.  Speaking for myself, I'm not going to clamor for wholesale changes, including a coaching change, or stop sitting in the 4th row at home games, until the trend reverses.

In the "what does success look like" page most everyone said that with all the defections and a young roster that a winning record overall and a 9-9 conference record would constitute a very successful season.    Almost everyone thought that.    It wasn't until during the season that people started setting unrealistic expectations for this group.     

We still have a good shot at 9-9 and an overall winning record.   I WILL TAKE IT.    Plus, we are playing our best basketball the to end the season.   Good job Matt! 

[VUGrad1314]

Just some food for thought and yet another reason why every Valpo fan should love and appreciate JFL!  He was the player of the week last week and may very well have had mono doing it... Absolutely incredible! This kid is a warrior! Get well soon Javon! Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

https://twitter.com/ToddIckow/status/1232518403149246464

[VUGrad1314]

I created my best attempt at a regression based on how 5 major CBB statistics (NET, PPG, Opponent PPG, and SOS) relate to Valpo final scores (negetives for losses and positives for wins). I only created it two games ago but in hindsight it predicted the winner of 24 of our 27 D1 games correctly (14 out of 15 in conference). It had us beating Illinois State by 2 and losing to Drake by 2. It has us beating Bradley by 1 and Missouri State by 3, while losing to Indiana State by 6. I would be very encouraged by that and that's what I am rolling with.

That puts us at 9-9 in conference.  Not sure whether that results in a Thursday game.  However, at the beginning of the year, I think that many posters were asserting that getting to .500 was a good step in the right direction, since VU finished 7-11 last year, and 6-12 in the previous year.  I agree that it is a step up from previous years in the conference.  The debate could have been whether the first year was a sufficiently high starting point and whether the positive progression is good enough.  If the progression continues, then next year we could reasonably expect 11-7. I don't think that the first year record was good enough.  However, I do recognize that the progression since then has been positive.  I think that we should let that continue.  Speaking for myself, I'm not going to clamor for wholesale changes, including a coaching change, or stop sitting in the 4th row at home games, until the trend reverses.

In the "what does success look like" page most everyone said that with all the defections and a young roster that a winning record overall and a 9-9 conference record would constitute a very successful season.    Almost everyone thought that.    It wasn't until during the season that people started setting unrealistic expectations for this group. We still have a good shot at 9-9 and an overall winning record.   I WILL TAKE IT.    Plus, we are playing our best basketball the to end the season.   Good job Matt!

But how about we get to 10-8 and avoid Thursday while also removing all doubt anyone could possibly have (even though I think that's already done) as to whether Matt deserves an extension? All he has to do is win this game and it pretty much takes away any leg those against extending Lottich have to stand on. Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

[justducky]

Just some food for thought and yet another reason why every Valpo fan should love and appreciate JFL!  He was the player of the week last week and may very well have had mono doing it... Absolutely incredible! This kid is a warrior! Get well soon Javon! Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

https://twitter.com/ToddIckow/status/1232518403149246464

Mono would be an easy explanation for some of his recent play. Comments were made wishing we could get the December Javon back. His defense was getting a little spotty and his 3 point shooting had fallen off a cliff. Maybe he was just selectively applying his reduced energies as best he could. We may never know how much of this has been a late season sophomore slump vs mono but I will no longer worry about it.

Anybody heading down 41?

[valpolaw]

Could not imagine playing D1 basketball with mono and still being in MVC player of the year talks.  That tells you just how special a player Javon is. 

[VUBBFan]

Just some food for thought and yet another reason why every Valpo fan should love and appreciate JFL!  He was the player of the week last week and may very well have had mono doing it... Absolutely incredible! This kid is a warrior! Get well soon Javon! Go Valpo! I BELIEVE! https://twitter.com/ToddIckow/status/1232518403149246464

Mono would be an easy explanation for some of his recent play. Comments were made wishing we could get the December Javon back. His defense was getting a little spotty and his 3 point shooting had fallen off a cliff. Maybe he was just selectively applying his reduced energies as best he could. We may never know how much of this has been a late season sophomore slump vs mono but I will no longer worry about it. Anybody heading down 41?

Got a ride with some other fans and gonna cheer my lungs out at the game.

[VUGrad1314]

Attention Luke Gore Mark LaBarbara Matt Lottich and All Others Concerned: READ THIS TWEET

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/1234100290493784064

Thank you.

[vuny98]

Attention Luke Gore Mark LaBarbara Matt Lottich and All Others Concerned: READ THIS TWEET https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/1234100290493784064 Thank you.

In their defense, we did get screwed over by Vandy and GW with last minute buy outs, but yes the sentiment remains.

[VUGrad1314]

Hard to argue with much of what Lottich says in this video. Pretty accurate thoughts about the team and the state of the program. Clay and Sackey have played well of late and Clay in particular is someone to really get excited about. Better days are ahead and learning to win on the road is the next step for our program. We still have a great opportunity this year in Arch Madness and Evansville is better than their record and in good capable stable hands now under Lickliter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwcm6V3boKE&feature=youtu.be

[oklahomamick]

Love the backdrop.  The renovations done on Hilltop are pretty cool.  I like the historic feel and look. 

I was there this summer watching a practice from the the door.  Lottich came out to get some water and said I could go in and watch.  Pretty cool.

[justducky]

Attention Luke Gore Mark LaBarbara Matt Lottich and All Others Concerned: READ THIS TWEET https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/1234100290493784064 Thank you.

In their defense, we did get screwed over by Vandy and GW with last minute buy outs, but yes the sentiment remains.

The non-con SOS for ISUb is 38 yielding a season long NET of 99 vs Bradley having non-con SOS of 297 and 111 NET. Not as much NET spread there as I would have imagined!

VU vs MSU on non-con SOS is 223 vs 219 yielding NETs of VU 135 and MSU 122. Those are much closer razor thin margins. Had GW (NET 197) and Vandy (NET 170) remained on the schedule they might or might not have made enough difference?

[IndyValpo]

This morning we sit with a NET of 134. 68 to the NCAA, 64 to the NIT. We should be able to play in the CBI or CIT. Should we?

Same question for the Women and the WBI.

Of course this assumes we don't win the conference tourneys.

[NativeCheesehead]

I'm not sure the men have much to gain by playing in a buy tourney. It's either another road trip or playing in an empty ARC. Those games can help when you're needing more team development, and I think most of the development this offseason will be individual (Krikke in the weight room, JFL and Clay continuing to improve their outside shot, etc.)

I do think the women would benefit from this, as it's been so long since that program has had a winning culture, but it's hard to see our department ponying up for them.

[VUGrad1314]

I'm not sure the men have much to gain by playing in a buy tourney. It's either another road trip or playing in an empty ARC. Those games can help when you're needing more team development, and I think most of the development this offseason will be individual (Krikke in the weight room, JFL and Clay continuing to improve their outside shot, etc.) I do think the women would benefit from this, as it's been so long since that program has had a winning culture, but it's hard to see our department ponying up for them.

We're a young team as Lottich likes to remind us. Experience of any kind benefits young teams. Plus the idea of going on the road and playing in hostile gyms whoever that may be is just what the doctor ordered. We have had trouble winning on the road. Playing more road games at the end of the year and hopefully winning them would be a great thing going into next season.

[NativeCheesehead]

The University that's forcing out one of their more popular music professors because of budget issues is not paying for our team to go on the road. Probably worth a separate thread but that article in the Times today does not paint a good picture for our alma mater right now.

[M]

If they get invited and can afford it then absolutely they should play (assuming the team stays healthy this weekend) and get the game experience.

[VALPO LI]

If they loose to Evansville pack it in...
If they beat Loyola absolutely keep the momentum going.

[VUGrad1314]

The University that's forcing out one of their more popular music professors because of budget issues is not paying for our team to go on the road. Probably worth a separate thread but that article in the Times today does not paint a good picture for our alma mater right now.

Holy crap... Maybe we should just be happy with what we have while we have it... Sounds like we're F'd...

[FieldGoodie05]

The University that's forcing out one of their more popular music professors because of budget issues is not paying for our team to go on the road. Probably worth a separate thread but that article in the Times today does not paint a good picture for our alma mater right now.

Holy crap... Maybe we should just be happy with what we have while we have it... Sounds like we're F'd...

Yes, because MUSIC is where the future is at for a corn-cob growing fly over University.  Come on guys!  CLICK BAIT

[VUGrad1314]

But it's just everything... It's cuts cuts cuts... Cuts here cuts there cuts everywhere... Bad financial reports... Sounds like we're hemorrhaging cash...

[vu72]

The University that's forcing out one of their more popular music professors because of budget issues is not paying for our team to go on the road. Probably worth a separate thread but that article in the Times today does not paint a good picture for our alma mater right now.

Um, the article says he is now staying for another year due to a petition from students.  I can see however why this would raise serious alarms as the jazz program is right up there in demand with Mechanical Engineering and Accounting. 

[justducky]

Yes, because MUSIC is where the future is at for a corn-cob growing fly over University. 

Careful! The corn cobs grown in Northwest Indiana are extremely sensitive to both criticism and music.    You city boys just never learned how to properly interact with nature.    Fortunately the seed will not start leaving the bag for another 4 weeks and they are much more forgiving than the average VU basketball fan. Wait! Are you actually suggesting than by cultivating our BB program and providing for its every need then bumper harvests might follow?

What a novel idea! What ag school did you attend?