Men's Basketball - Season Win total

[covufan]

With 31 games scheduled (including Bracket Buster) before HL Championship, I'm predicting a 21-10 record.

[agibson]

Just to be clear, the poll you posted _includes_ the postseason, right?

[covufan]

Just to be clear, the poll you posted _includes_ the postseason, right?

Yes.

My prediction was just for the 31 scheduled games.

[wh]

Given the scoring and experience we lost and all the new names and faces, I would be pretty happy with 20 wins.  Obviously, the more the better. 

[justducky]

Keep in mind that I have already predicted that we could and maybe should be the H.L. team to beat in 12-13. I do not however believe that there are any benefits in charging strong out of the gate. I do not see any pressure on Bryce whatsoever and so if he believes it beneficial to give everybody significant playing time and try 15 different starting lineups then I would expect us as a group to be extremely patient. That said, I do want to see a strong Feb-March and a solid HL tourney run. So a regular season total of 17 wins might be just fine, and a slow somewhat erratic start is something that I am expecting.

[valpopal]

For 2011-2012, I'm going with an overall total of 18 (17-14 regular season, 1 conference tournament win), and I would be especially pleased if we got 20. In 2012-2013, I'm looking forward to significantly raising the number of predicted wins.

[78crusader]

2011-12 regular season record: 17-14

Paul

[zvillehaze]

I do not however believe that there are any benefits in charging strong out of the gate.

I'm confused by this comment.  Over half the roster is upper classmen ... why wouldn't you want to start fast? Isn't the goal to win every game you can?

[vu72]

While I agree that we will have potential problems with integrating all the new faces,these can be offset by a return of a solid core of players.

With the notable addition of Richie Edwards to the starting lineup, I see the other starters as guys with plenty of experience at Valpo.  Broekhoff, Kenney, Buggs, Kevin?  Backups: Kurth, Harris?  This is without regard to the addition of Boggs, Bogan or improvement/contribution of Fernandez, Vucic or others. I really don't see a reason why we would start "slow" but the roles will have changed dramatically as Brandon and Cory were always scoring options 1 and 2.
Those adjustments will take some time perhaps.

[wh]

I do not however believe that there are any benefits in charging strong out of the gate.

I'm confused by this comment.  Over half the roster is upper classmen ... why wouldn't you want to start fast? Isn't the goal to win every game you can?

Yeah, it's pretty hard to argue with wanting to start fast and win every game you can. 

[justducky]

I do not however believe that there are any benefits in charging strong out of the gate.

I'm confused by this comment.  Over half the roster is upper classmen ... why wouldn't you want to start fast? Isn't the goal to win every game you can?

If you first start with the assumption that neither an NCAA or NIT bid is likely without an unexpectedly strong conference performance and add that CBI or CIT bids might not even be accepted (due to last years financial losses); then you can quickly reach the conclusion that some of our winable non-conference games might not be all that important. So if Bryce is tempted to ride Van Wijk like a horse for 30 minutes a game so that we might log a few extra wins against the Akrons, Oaklands and IUPUIs on the schedule then I would advise him to resist that temptation. Lets see what Fernandez and Vucic and Jakolis can do this year because with Capobianco returning in 12-13 their playing time for next year might be non existent if they do not significantly improve. In theory this could be our 13-14 front line and their development is important.

[historyman]

I do not however believe that there are any benefits in charging strong out of the gate.

I'm confused by this comment.  Over half the roster is upper classmen ... why wouldn't you want to start fast? Isn't the goal to win every game you can?

If you first start with the assumption that neither an NCAA or NIT bid is likely without an unexpectedly strong conference performance and add that CBI or CIT bids might not even be accepted (due to last years financial losses); then you can quickly reach the conclusion that some of our winable non-conference games might not be all that important. So if Bryce is tempted to ride Van Wijk like a horse for 30 minutes a game so that we might log a few extra wins against the Akrons, Oaklands and IUPUIs on the schedule then I would advise him to resist that temptation. Lets see what Fernandez and Vucic and Jakolis can do this year because with Capobianco returning in 12-13 their playing time for next year might be non existent if they do not significantly improve. In theory this could be our 13-14 front line and their development is important.

I really think you should observe how Van Wijk's back is doing (he says it's completely fine and that is exactly what he told me in July) and also observe Vucic, Fernandez and Jakolis in the exhibition games before jumping to the conclusion, which last year was a fair assumption, that Kevin can't play 30 minutes per game and that Bryce needs to limit his playing time in favor of Vucic, Fernandez and Jakolis. We just may need to replace all three in 12-13 when Capobianco is eligible to play, if we can recruit some better big men. We may not be able to recruit a big man. If that happens lets hope for some great development in at least one of the three, Vucic, Fernandez and Jakolis.

[vu84v2]

With losing the scoring of Wood and Johnson, I am again concerned that this team will struggle to find consistent scoring.  The potential is there with Edwards, Harris, and Kenney becoming double digit scorers - but we'll see.

Breaking down the season:
Non-conference:  6-7 (4-7 in D1)
Arizona and Ohio State - losses (my subtle prediction is that the Arizona game will be close for quite awhile due to it being the first game for both teams and the motivation of Bryce's first game)

The two non-D1 games - wins

Gerogia Southern, Akron, Duquense: 1-2

The five December non-conference games: 3-2

Bracketbuster:  0-1

Conference:  8-10
Butler: 0-2
UW-Milwaukee:  1-1
Detroit:  1-1 (best team in the conference, but worst coaching)
Youngstown State, Wright State, and Cleveland State: 2-4
Loyola and IL-Chicago: 3-1
UW-Green Bay: 1-1

Conference Tourney:  win, then loss

Total:  15-18  (believe me - I want this to be better, but just looking realistically at significant turnover and the time it takes for a team to come together)

[VUfan]

22-14
8-5 non Conference
12-8 Conference
2-1 tourney

[historyman]

With losing the scoring of Wood and Johnson, I am again concerned that this team will struggle to find consistent scoring.  The potential is there with Edwards, Harris, and Kenney becoming double digit scorers - but we'll see.

Conference:  8-10
Butler: 0-2
UW-Milwaukee:  1-1
Detroit:  1-1 (best team in the conference, but worst coaching)
Youngstown State, Wright State, and Cleveland State: 2-4
Loyola and IL-Chicago: 3-1
UW-Green Bay: 1-1

I'll agree with everything but the conference record. I don't believe for a second Valpo will go 2-4 against YSU, WSU and CSU. My belief is more like 4-2 at the worst. Remember that WSU will be in the lower half of conference and YSU has not learned how to win yet. YSU is always close but no cigar except for that Butler game at home last year when the Bulldogs had already lost to Valpo. Also the conference games are in the 2nd half of the season when this team will have jelled more. I also think VU beats Butler once at home. That game is such a rivalry you throw out the records when playing that game at Valpo.  

conf 11-7. Which could be enough for a tie for 3rd or 4th.

[StlVUFan]

22-14
8-5 non Conference
12-8 Conference
2-1 tourney

do you mean 12-6 or 10-8?

[vu84v2]

My 2-4 against CSU, WSU and YSU was 0-2 against CSU and splitting with the other two.  I could certainly see that being 3-3 or 4-2 based on sweeping WSU and/or YSU.  Again, I certainly want that to happen.

Beating Butler is going to be a real problem in my opinion.  More experience on the floor and coaching - nothing against Bryce.  But the argument that Valpo will be better in February than in early December (2nd game vs. first game) has some validity....we'll see.

[valpo84]

18-20 wins. Conference wins at 10-12. Scoring will not be an issue. This team is more balanced and could be more explosive than last year. Although Cory had a decent average, his efficiency was not as good. That scoring will split between Kevin and Richie. Broekoff will be 15-17 per game. Jay will be double digits with Kenney at 8-11 ppg, both picking up a bulk of the Wood numbers along with the deeper Killer Bs at the guard position all taking on some. Like the past couple years, any one guy could go for 20 on a given night.

[valpotx]

22-12 overall (including conference tourney)
11-7 conference
2-1 conference tourney

I think with several other teams also replacing significant players, we will still finish in the top 4.  I could see several games going each way within conference, so a top 3 finish is not out of the question.

[VUfan]

12-6
the season 22-12
sorry

[Valpotentate]

22-9 is my guess.

[covufan]

One last chance before closing this poll before the game starts tonight.

[valporun]

I'm going to say 21-10. I think we'll catch a trap game or two amongst games that we should win easy, whether in December or February.

[govalpogo]

21-14 Total

18-13 Regular Season
10-8 Horizon with a nice run in the tournament as the team starts to really click chemistry wise. 

[milanmiracle]

I'll go with 17-16. Losing Wood will hurt and scoring could be a problem early in the year. The point guard position could be an issue unless Harris is the point. Playing 4 on 5 on offense is never a good recipe for success.