GAME #3: Valpo @ Truman State, 9/21 7:00pm

VULB#62 · September 15, 2019, 10:40:35 AM

Truman is 2-0 after defeating Wayne State (MI) 35-12. WSU (0-2) is D-II, like Truman. They lost their opener to Slippery Rock (D-II) giving up 62 points. We know Truman opened by beating Drake.

If the past is any indication of what might transpire: in Cecchini's first year, the turn around game of that first season was an away win against a D-II team (William Jewel) that had beaten his predecessor the year before. Could history repeat?

valpofb16 · September 15, 2019, 10:51:18 AM

Big difference in the opponent

2014 William Jewell massey rating :467
2019 Truman State massey rating: 265

To have Valpo as a favorite in this game just due to division label would be ignorant. This is a very talent Truman State team who 1) completely wore down a senior ridden 2018 Valpo defense, 2) has athletic scholarships. This game will also be at Truman State. I fully believe Valpo gets win #1 the following week but not too hopeful this weekend.

Prediction:

Truman State 42
Valparaiso 14

Again hope I am wrong

VULB#62 · September 15, 2019, 11:08:15 AM

To your point, WJ beat Carlson's last team by 2 points @ Valpo. TSU beat Cecchini's last team by 2 TDs @ Valpo.

JD24 · September 15, 2019, 11:32:28 AM

I think this game is winable for Valpo. I wouldn't look at Wayne State as any sort of barometer. Drake being in the same league is a different story but they've looked as if they have taken a fairly large step backwards this year so far.

VULB#62 · September 15, 2019, 11:46:48 AM

Speaking of Drake and for additional context, the Bulldogs lost to SDSU 38-10. They are 0-2.

usc4valpo · September 15, 2019, 02:12:11 PM

Valpo will win game 4, but this is not a 6 win team.

FieldGoodie05 · September 15, 2019, 04:12:10 PM

Quote from: usc4valpo on September 15, 2019, 02:12:11 PM
Valpo will win game 4, but this is not a 6 win team.

What makes us think they are capable of 4 wins? Since 2005/06 they've only reached 6 wins 1x guys.

VULB#62 · September 15, 2019, 05:08:41 PM

Quote from: FieldGoodie05 on September 15, 2019, 04:12:10 PM
Quote from: usc4valpo on September 15, 2019, 02:12:11 PM
Valpo will win game 4, but this is not a 6 win team.

What makes us think they are capable of 4 wins? Since 2005/06 they've only reached 6 wins 1x guys.

Illogical. Talking only four wins not six. Here, IMHO, are the possible (not probable) wins.

Homecoming vs. U of Charleston
Stetson
@Butler
Marist

If Drake is truly in a down year, then, perhaps with some breaks we could squeak out a win there and that relates to TSU our next opponent. That makes it kinda possible to maybe beating Truman State.

So among these six there is a possibility of four wins.

JD24 · September 15, 2019, 05:36:15 PM

Quote from: VULB#62 on September 15, 2019, 05:08:41 PM
Quote from: FieldGoodie05 on September 15, 2019, 04:12:10 PM
Quote from: usc4valpo on September 15, 2019, 02:12:11 PMValpo will win game 4, but this is not a 6 win team.
What makes us think they are capable of 4 wins? Since 2005/06 they've only reached 6 wins 1x guys.
Illogical. Talking only four wins not six. Here, IMHO, are the possible (not probable) wins. Homecoming vs. U of Charleston Stetson @Butler Marist If Drake is truly in a down year, then, perhaps with some breaks we could squeak out a win there and that relates to TSU our next opponent. That makes it kinda possible to maybe beating Truman State. So among these six there is a possibility of four wins.

Morehead St more likely than either Stetson or Marist in my view.

Right now, I think the unwinable games are San Diego and Dayton. Drake hasn't looked good at all...they haven't been able to run the ball. Davidson I want to see more from against PFL type competition before I look at them as having completely turned the corner. The rest are winable. That doesn't mean they'll win them, just that they could.

valpofb16 · September 15, 2019, 07:37:26 PM

The six wins I projected at the beginning of the season incorporated a healthy Jimmy Seewald for sure

Just a glimpse at some numbers for our passing game so far

170 ypg
47% completion
5 yards p/a
1-4 TD to int ratio

only 67.5 yds/game on the ground too. Our "duel threat" qb's season long rush is 4 yds.

Also #30 FR LB Tarie Saunders has appeared to have left team. Heard he had a really solid camp. Disappointing

Wish Mr. Saunders luck!

No rushing/passing game, a new defense, and a kicker who is 0-3 (two of which within 30 yards)

Will be tough to score points this season

valpofb16 · September 16, 2019, 10:35:43 AM

We are now projected to go 1-11 via Massey ratings

Only win we are projected is 38-35 Morehead st

Butler lost to Taylor so that could be winnable, still think we get Charleston.

Without great improvement we are staring 0-3 wins down the Barrell. I am hoping many of our RSJRs return next season.

Fox will need to nail his first full recruiting class.

IndyValpo · September 16, 2019, 12:26:45 PM

Quote from: valpofb16 on September 16, 2019, 10:35:43 AM
We are now projected to go 1-11 via Massey ratings

Only win we are projected is 38-35 Morehead st

Butler lost to Taylor so that could be winnable, still think we get Charleston.

Without great improvement we are staring 0-3 wins down the Barrell. I am hoping many of our RSJRs return next season.

Fox will need to nail his first full recruiting class.

Agreed next recruiting class is vital.
I only count 5 RSJR's.
Seewald, Duncan, Biggs, Zajac and Goebel not sure any will return.

valpofb16 · September 16, 2019, 01:40:35 PM

Biggs and Zajac would be huge as we'd be left with 3 lineman who have played a snap

Goebel would be nice as well as the DT position is thin behind him Gedrys Reed Germain

Duncan would be a great return too. 2nd year in offense and we would only have 3 QBs on roster

Seewald as much as everyone would love to have him back should do what's best for his health

talksalot · September 16, 2019, 04:59:10 PM

Quote from: valpofb16 on September 16, 2019, 10:35:43 AMstill think we get Charleston.

Not to look past Truman State... I'll drink the KoolAid and say this Saturday night starts a two-game winning streak !

From the Charleston page... they played (and lost) at Urbana College (28-20)... 247 total yards, 236 of those passing. 11 rushing yards. 2-11 third down conversion. Their leading rusher was 4 for 27 yards (three different players had negative rushing yards). Two field goal attempts... 49 yarder missed and 39 yarder blocked.

JD24 · September 16, 2019, 07:16:12 PM

I don't think Valpo's a 0-3 win team. 2-5 would be my guess. At this point:

Can't win

San Diego
Dayton

No idea but leaning negative:

Drake

Can win:

Truman
Marist
Stetson
Davidson

Probably will win:

Butler
Morehead St.

Should win:

Charleston

So with the three from the bottom and adding 1 or 2 from the middle group, I get as many as 5.

valpofb16 · September 17, 2019, 11:14:36 AM

Depth Chart changes week 3

WRX: Brewer is out, left game early last week with injury, Stablein is in moving from the slot

Only change, good to see Turner and Allison will be playing. Still haven't seen Cam Kelly or Leandre in a game this year at corner, odd as they would have projected as starters in the spring

JD24 · September 17, 2019, 11:43:30 AM

Quote from: valpofb16 on September 17, 2019, 11:14:36 AMDepth Chart changes week 3 WRX: Brewer is out, left game early last week with injury, Stablein is in moving from the slot Only change, good to see Turner and Allison will be playing. Still haven't seen Cam Kelly or Leandre in a game this year at corner, odd as they would have projected as starters in the spring

Both had some "issues" in the spring. One more than once. Maybe their penance is not completed in the eyes of the coaching staff.

talksalot · September 18, 2019, 06:16:39 PM

Game time is 7pm.. I believe

bbtds · September 18, 2019, 09:51:49 PM

Quote from: talksalot on September 18, 2019, 06:16:39 PM
Game [time is 7pm.. I believe

Smart. Cardinals at Cubs in a pennant race start at 1:20 p.m. in Wrigley Field.

usc4valpo · September 19, 2019, 07:23:38 AM

TSU 24, Valpo 9.

vu72 · September 19, 2019, 08:09:53 AM

Quote from: usc4valpo on September 19, 2019, 07:23:38 AM
TSU 24, Valpo 9.

So is that 3 field goals or did we miss another extra point?

bbtds · September 19, 2019, 09:15:26 AM

Quote from: vu72 on September 19, 2019, 08:09:53 AM
Quote from: usc4valpo on September 19, 2019, 07:23:38 AM
TSU 24, Valpo 9.

So is that 3 field goals or did we miss another extra point?

Touchdown, missed extra point and 27 yard FG.

usc4valpo · September 19, 2019, 11:36:07 AM

that is pretty much what I am thinking. It is scary that my last prediction was close - 43-20 for the CCSU game. Let's see how I do this time.

What I see so far is that Valpo's offense is weak and their defense hangs in there. I think Valpo should start a freshman QB and learn.

dcannon12 · September 19, 2019, 12:25:34 PM

I agree they should start a Freshman and let Duncan go into the portal and get on a team where his skills are utilized he has no help at all and hangs in but let Freshman have it.
See if the Freshman can connect with the guys who do run the right routes, get the ball off when there is no blocking from the O line, after you check down be able to run even 1 yard with no blocking.
When the Freshman hands off to the running back I am sure he can get further because he handed if off. Duncan has his faults he needs to relax and not throw those interceptions but I think he trying to make something happen and that is better then nothing.

JD24 · September 19, 2019, 12:59:06 PM

I don't agree with starting a Freshman QB particulary since none of the Freshman have been mentioned at all. The suggestion is certainly an aberration.

So you're not "agreeing" with anyone other than one poster who's often standing in left field other than to state that the QB needs to stop turning the ball over. Not entirely his fault however as the coach said "It starts with Chris". Chances are wherever he would go by entering "the portal", he would be faced with the same scrutiny. Don't want that scrutiny? Don't play QB.

I'm looking at a 20-17 Valpo victory.