GAME #3: Valpo @ Truman State, 9/21 7:00pm

[valpofb16]

Dcannon i was off the Duncan train just due to him not being Jimmy. That being said , I want him to stay next season as I think we have young receivers who will complement him next season. As far as freshman QB's go I have heard good things about Saylers and Ruszkowski. Ruszkowski is more mobile, think a slightly minus athlete from Markoff but a better arm, Saylers may be most accurate passer on team but he is 165 pounds, Nimz has a cannon of an arm but throws a lot of 50/50 balls into coverage

There is no need for a mass movement to go young until week 7 because as of now Berkemeier appears to be the only freshman on the way to losing a RS year. Annis has played on special teams too. We lost to 2 scholarship teams and play 4 scholarship teams right off the bat.

Truman will be a tough test but they beat Drake and a 2018 Valpo team. So i in no way shape or form think we are favored this week. I think the program will be quite alright.  Realistic goals for rest of season

QB: Duncan grows into offense, becomes less turnover prone. Get a clear picture of who our QB in waiting is (Nimz, Rus, Saylers)
RB: take that 67.5 yds per game rush average and get it over 100
WR/TE: Show ability to be explosive and grow into offense outside of Koehler we have played Brewer RSFR, Kluck RSSO, Bittner RSSO, Reese SO, Lopez JR (first year transfer), Berkemeier FR that's a young group
OL: Same as backs, find out who will replace 40+ game starters in Lundberg and Jarnigan

On defense it appears our TFL's and sacks are up but we are giving up more big plays. I'd like to play minimal freshman and average less than 25 PPG the rest of the season on defense.

Will this result in a winning record? Most likely not, but it will be steps of improvement. Let's keep 60-70 for spring, let Fox bring in the inaugural normal 40-55 y1 recruiting class for a PFL coach and reassess the program at the end of 2020.

[valpofb16]

This coupled with Cecchini leaving on signing day and the following attrition rate of finishing 4 years from freshman who ended season on roster (not counting signings and the ones who didn't finish freshman season

2014: 7/21 -33%
2015: 28/49-57%
2016: 11/38- 28%
2017: 21/37- 56%
2018: 22/33-66%
Total- 89/178 - 50%

Moral of this being that Cecchini had 1 winning season and 50% of the players had finished their time in the program. Those expecting Fox to walk in the door and change everything need to realize patience is needed. Myself included. Better attrition rate will be a great first step.

[JD24]

Any thoughts on what happened with that 2016 class? Barely above a quarter of the players stuck with it?

[VULB#62]

Just a nit, cuz the research is there and important. I believe the %ages are "retention" rates and not attrition.  Attition would be players lost. These figures show the guys who stuck with it. Right?

[usc4valpo]

So I am in left field - so were many great baseball legends and people of brilliance and integrity. I cannot constantly drinking the brown and gold kool aid; in fact, it sounds disgusting

[valpofb16]

2016 revisited

QB
Papenfuss
Mullen
Duncan
Seewald
3/4
Coach: Cecchini

RB
Boxrucker
Cartales
Petrie
3/3
Coach: Snyder

WR
Reckards
Orlich
Reitz
Gessinger
0/4
Coach: Miran


TE
Martin
Petruf
Hassel
0/3
Coach: Caygoz

OL
Pierce
Stephens
Biggs
Kamara
Williams
1/5
Coach:Giacalone

DL
Dixon
Sperling
Goebel
Reed
Zajac
Osmond
3/6
Coach: Rouse

LB
Newkirk
Johnson
Welch
Farwick
Petroff
Bucket
O'Brien
0/7
Coach: Manalac

DB
Crook
Booker
Bender
Allen
Fortman
1/5
Coach: Moore

K
Latsonas
Elion
1/2
Coach: Snyder

[bbtds]

I'm looking at a 20-17 Valpo victory.

How much of your hard earned money would you bet on that prediction? $1? $5? $10? $20? $40? $50? $75? $100? $150? $200? $250? $500? $1,000?

[JD24]

I'm looking at a 20-17 Valpo victory.

How much of your hard earned money would you bet on that prediction? $1? $5? $10? $20? $40? $50? $75? $100? $150? $200? $250? $500? $1,000?

Look my friend, if you get your jollies shitting on the team be my guest. There's a certain number of posters here and on the basketball thread who seem to extract some level of glee in pointing out poor or potential poor performance. Maybe it helps them get through the day, I don't know.

As to whether Valpo's football team will beat Truman, I have no idea. I'd just prefer to think that this is a winable game as opposed to the first two games. If you don't, then that's ok. Just be sure to enjoy your misery.

[JD24]

Game time moved to 3pm for weather concerns.....or so they say.

The real reason is that I may not have been able to watch a game beginning at 7pm so it was moved for me.

[talksalot]

Game time is 7pm.. I believe

ok, so we were both wrong.    now 3pm

SAT  SEP 21 Thunderstorms   
SSW 16 mph   87%
Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 79F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

SAT NIGHT  SEP 21   Thunderstorms   
SSW 12 mph   92%
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Potential for heavy rainfall. Low 68F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90%.


so.... About this running game.

TSU stats over two games:

RUSHING YARDAGE    234 
   Yards gained rushing    284 
   Yards lost rushing    50
   Rushing Attempts    74    
   Average Per Rush    3.2    
   Average Per Game    117.0
   TDs Rushing           1    

TSU Opponent Stats
RUSHING YARDAGE        200
   Yards gained rushing    277
   Yards lost rushing        77
   Rushing Attempts        66
   Average Per Rush        3.0
   Average Per Game        100.0
   TDs Rushing        2

Valpo Stats

RUSHING YARDAGE 135
Yards gained rushing 183
Yards lost rushing 48
Rushing Attempts 71
Average Per Rush 1.9
Average Per Game 67.5
TDs Rushing 1

Valpo Opponents
RUSHING YARDAGE    648
Yards gained rushing  678
Yards lost rushing       30
Rushing Attempts      77
Average Per Rush       8.4
Average Per Game    324.0
TDs Rushing       9

[valpofb16]

Game is 100% winnable not much faith in our O which means D will be on the field a lot

D on the field a lot against a triple option run heavy teams means to them wearing down .


I genuinely hope I'm wrong Duncan throws for 300 and we win by 21.  I just don't see it.

[vu72]

All the rushing stats for and against don't really mean anything as I would think Valpo's opponents have been significantly better that TSU's.

[VULB#62]

And I am slightly surprised at the rushing numbers for TSU -- 3.2 per carry isn't great and to have only 234 net yards on the ground in two games (117 yds/game) is not like them.

[JD24]

All the rushing stats for and against don't really mean anything as I would think Valpo's opponents have been significantly better that TSU's.

Absolutely true. Drake couldn't run the ball against Truman but Drake hasn't been able to run the ball against their other opponents either.

[usc4valpo]

Cmon wake up guys.

[usc4valpo]

Mullen in at QB - thank you.

[JD24]

I don't think Valpo's problems on offense can be solved strictly by a switch in QBs. Mullen's arm doesn't appear to be all that strong and the defense is just being allowed to play up close to the LOS killing the running game. So maybe everybody saying it is right about the offense not being able to do anything...some of which is explainable...I think the WR/TE crew is simply bad....and some of which isn't....I think the OL should simply be playing better.

There's also a couple of guys on offense in key positions who have played scared in my view.

[JD24]

In other good news, Skarecky went hobbling off the field right at the end. Based on hobble observation, I'd say a pretty good niggle in his left ankle.

[usc4valpo]

Why these guys would be playing scared is beyond me. The running game is nonexistent, as the Truman broadcasters have observed.
24 nil.

[usc4valpo]

Wow Latsonas is in one serious funk...

[VULB#62]

Seewald is in   

[usc4valpo]

Seewald in the game down 38 nil...

[valpofb16]

This is the worst loss since 50-7 Franklin in 2010.

There's an overall lack of interest from potential students (800 freshman), which I'm sure transfers over to a football team a decade behind in facilities.

I appreciate the kids who have put on the brown or gold win or lose but I'm beginning to think Dave's 6-5 teams was one of the best jobs in CFB .

I love the program and don't think ending it is the proper response. Maybe a new AD could swing things. Can't be out of the question with our other sports performances

[JD24]

Wow Latsonas is in one serious funk...

So is the snapper.

[usc4valpo]

Fb16 - pretty bold statement. We are in the fourth quarter with 4 first downs. Unacceptable.