MVC Hoops 2019-2020

[VUGrad1314]

I am watching Drake play UNI on NBC Sports Chicago and I can't help but record some observations:

Drake is a REALLY GOOD TEAM. Robbins is special Murphy and Penn are strong all around players and they defend like crazy. Our win over them is nothing to sneeze at. A.J. Green is his usual A.J. Green self with range out of the gym. He's incredible. And yet... UNI got off to an extremely slow start in this game and took forever to score at all. Green was scoreless in the first ten minutes. They have also struggled every time they've made a run getting over the hump and taking\building a lead (they lead by one right now). If this were Lottich and Valpo we'd be grousing and grumbling terribly. I know it's hard because we're used to winning and being a highly successful team but maybe we're not giving nearly enough credit to the opposing defenses and the job they do against us. This is a great league especially on defense and perhaps we would all do well to acknowledge that a little bit more than we do.  Also the announcers have made a real point of mentioning multiple times that Drake recruits extremely well in our own backyard. They seem surprised that Drake has so much region talent on their roster.

[VUGrad1314]

This is amazing! What an environment! I hope we can be part of games like this sometime in the near future! Holy crap this is great!

[oklahomamick]

Dude were you around during the 5 of the six seasons we won the HL?  Did you make the home game against SLU?  Or home game against Rhode Island?  Any of the NIT home games?  The Oakland and Detroit games were really cool.  Did you attend any of our home HL championship games?

We have been part of those kind of games.  And it wasn't too long ago.  It's amazing how 3 bad years can make US forget.

[VUGrad1314]

Dude were you around during the 5 of the six seasons we won the HL?  Did you make the home game against SLU?  Or home game against Rhode Island?  Any of the NIT home games?  The Oakland and Detroit games were really cool.  Did you attend any of our home HL championship games? We have been apart of those kind of games.  And it wasn't too long ago.  It's amazing how 3 bad years can make you forget.

I was around for all of that and went to most of them It's been a long three years. I just want to feel that excitement and that environment again. We should be having this excitement game in and game out in this conference and I hope we reach the point soon where we do.

[VUGrad1314]

Reports are that SIU has 5000+ at the Banterra Center for their game against Missouri State. That's what happens when you win and fans feel legitimately hoepful: they show up. The ingredients to solving attendance issues are simple: 1. Win 2. Make fans feel hopeful. That's it.

[VUGrad1314]

6500 fans just watched SIU take sole possession of 2nd place with Marcus Domask winning the game for the Salukis at the horn. He is averaging over 15ppg in the MVC as a freshman. Makes you wonder how many he'd have averaged in the HL (he had originally committed to NKU until Brannen  bolted for Cincinnati). He probably would have averaged 20+ I'm not kidding.

[VUGrad1314]

Thoughts? UNI in or out? Also it is really time to quit calling that SIU loss a bad loss. It's not. They're the second place team in the conference and that road game will probably end up Q2. I do agree that the WVU loss really hurts because it would have not only given them another great Q1 win but also likely would have enhanced their SOS by allowing them to play Wichita State. That said, South Carolina is quietly putting together a really nice year. Don't sleep on that win.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2020/2/6/21126145/bubble-watch-ncaa-tournament-2020-selection-northern-iowa-at-large-mvc

[VUGrad1314]

The numbers are in:

The only way to guarantee we avoid Thursday as things stand right now is to win out...

At 5-1 it becomes a near certainty (98.5%)

At 4-2 we have a 2 in 3 chance of avoiding Thursday.

At 3-3 and below we are almost certainly a Thursday team.

Here are our remaining games(Conference record and NET ranking)

February 12 SIU (9-3 146 2nd MVC) 7 wins in a row

February 15 @ Illinois St 3-9 202 9th MVC) All of their wins have been at home but they are beatable there as their 7-4 record suggests but they did take down UNI and Indiana State at Redbird Arena

February 19 @Drake (6-6 138 6th MVC) 10-1 at home Only loss to SIU. This game will be critical and not an easy one to get.

February 22 Bradley ( 7-5 107 T4th MVC) Bradley just got Childs back and with him healthy and in their lineup a winnable game just got significantly tougher

February 25 Missouri State (5-7 148 T7th MVC) We are tied with them but they have head to head and ever so slightly higher metrics. This is another game we absolutely have to have.

February 29 @Indiana St (7-5 91 T4th MVC) Undefeated at home. Nobody has been able to come into the Hulman Center and come away victorious.  Having our Thursday status come down to this game would be a very dicey proposition.

Our minimum goal for the rest of the season should be 4-2. With three home games (SIU Bradley Missouri State) and 3 games against teams we've already beaten (Illinois State Drake Indiana State) we definitely have a chance. Protecting home court alone (a tall order with SIU and a healthy Bradley coming in) would get us almost all the way there but the fewer road wins we have to rely on getting the better because all three of those teams we play on the road are all really good at home. If we can somehow cool off SIU and win @Illinois St this week it would give us a great chance of getting into the top 6. All we would need to do to have a reasonable chance at that point would be to defend home court or steal one on the road and beat Missouri State for example at home.  it's impossible to predict wins and losses for us in this league so we have to take it game by game and see where we are but the path is there to avoid Thursday even from our difficult position. It's just up to us to take the opportunity.

[VUGrad1314]

UNI is SO CLOSE to a national ranking! With a nationally televised game against the Ramblers at Gentile coming up for them an undefeated week might do it for them! This would be really good for the conference!

[VUGrad1314]

The fact remains if we want to comfortably be a multibid league and not have our leading team (or maybe teams?) sweating out Selection Sunday then we ALL need to get better as a conference and make good on some of those near misses we had in the non conference. I've said it before and I'll say it again if Valpo (or Illinois State) had beaten Cincinnati If Valpo had beaten Arkansas if Illinois State had beaten UCF If Loyola had taken care of Colorado State and Davidson and not lost to Coppin State if Missouri State had beaten Xavier and Miami and not lost to Little Rock if Evansville had beaten SMU and not totally imploded if Indiana State had beaten Duquesne and Dayton (and yes if UNI had held on against West Virginia let's be fair) we would probably be talking about UNI having an easy path to an at large and maybe even have developed a team (Loyola? Indiana State? Missouri State even?) with strong enough metrics to join them. Either way, the wins UNI has piled up against these teams would have been far weightier had we done our part in the non-conference. It's just on us to take advantage of the talent we have and get it done at every opportunity to turn these close losses into meaningful Q1\Q2 wins.

[VUGrad1314]

The numbers are in:

The only way to guarantee we avoid Thursday as things stand right now is to win out...

At 5-1 it becomes a near certainty (98.5%)

At 4-2 we have a 2 in 3 chance of avoiding Thursday.

At 3-3 and below we are almost certainly a Thursday team.

Here are our remaining games(Conference record and NET ranking)

February 12 SIU (9-3 146 2nd MVC) 7 wins in a row

February 15 @ Illinois St 3-9 202 9th MVC) All of their wins have been at home but they are beatable there as their 7-4 record suggests but they did take down UNI and Indiana State at Redbird Arena

February 19 @Drake (6-6 138 6th MVC) 10-1 at home Only loss to SIU. This game will be critical and not an easy one to get.

February 22 Bradley ( 7-5 107 T4th MVC) Bradley just got Childs back and with him healthy and in their lineup a winnable game just got significantly tougher

February 25 Missouri State (5-7 148 T7th MVC) We are tied with them but they have head to head and ever so slightly higher metrics. This is another game we absolutely have to have.

February 29 @Indiana St (7-5 91 T4th MVC) Undefeated at home. Nobody has been able to come into the Hulman Center and come away victorious.  Having our Thursday status come down to this game would be a very dicey proposition.

Our minimum goal for the rest of the season should be 4-2. With three home games (SIU Bradley Missouri State) and 3 games against teams we've already beaten (Illinois State Drake Indiana State) we definitely have a chance. Protecting home court alone (a tall order with SIU and a healthy Bradley coming in) would get us almost all the way there but the fewer road wins we have to rely on getting the better because all three of those teams we play on the road are all really good at home. If we can somehow cool off SIU and win @Illinois St this week it would give us a great chance of getting into the top 6. All we would need to do to have a reasonable chance at that point would be to defend home court or steal one on the road and beat Missouri State for example at home.  it's impossible to predict wins and losses for us in this league so we have to take it game by game and see where we are but the path is there to avoid Thursday even from our difficult position. It's just up to us to take the opportunity.

Step one... Complete... And Drake losing creating a 3 way tie at 6-7 was a very helpful development that I didn't necessarily count on. On to Normal. If we can get that road game (and they are very tough down there so it won't be easy) we'll be halfway to our four win goal already! Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

[VUGrad1314]

The new numbers are in and here's how they shake out:

Have successfully avoided Thursday: UNI

Will avoid Thursday barring an epic collapse: Bradley Loyola SIU

Fighting to Avoid Thursday: Indiana State Drake Missouri State Valpo

Locked into Thursday Already: Evansville Illinois State

So we've got four teams for two spots in the top six--the Fighting to Avoid Thursday Group. I'm going to focus on these four teams and break down their schedule and their odds. All data comes from this fine thread and the work of the poster Hacksaw on MVC Fans. I am just aggregating the data and analyzing it by taking a deeper dive into the schedules. Since NET is a tiebreaker for seeding I will list their NET rankings as well even if they aren't the most relevant thing in the world. Here's the thread from which the data comes: http://mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5466&start=50

Drake 6-7 152 T6 MVC

Needs to go at least 3-2 to have a near coin flip 50% chance to avoid Thursday. 4-1 boosts their chances to a robust 95%.

Remaining schedule: 2\16 Vs Evansville 2\19 Vs Valpo 2\22 @Illinois State 2\25 @Loyola 2\29 Vs UNI

The Bulldogs have been terrific at home with a 10-1 record but with an absolutely brutal two game stretch to close out the year, it feels like their fortunes may come down to their home meeting with Valpo on the 19th. Nothing is ever guaranteed in the Valley though so a surprise win or loss is not out of the question. I see them going 3-2 or 2-3 in this stretch (probably 3-2 and setting up that coin flip but it's really on the razor's edge for Drake as far as avoiding Thursday goes. That Missouri State loss stung and took away most of their wiggle room.

Indiana State: 7-6 102 5th MVC

Needs to go 3-2 to have a near certain chance to avoid Thursday 2-3 would raise those odds to just over 13%

Remaining Schedule: 2\16 Vs Missouri State 2\19 Vs UNI 2\22 @ Evansville 1\15 @ Illinois State 2\29 Vs Valpo

Even after the road loss to Bradley the Sycamores are probably the best positioned of this group to avoid Thursday.  They have no time to lick their wounds and have to shake off that loss quickly and rebound for a big game against the Bears on Sunday. For their part The Bears just blew out Drake by 35 at home and look like they are beginning to find their footing and be the team we thought they were when the season began.(Hat tip to the late Dennis Green RIP) Fortunately for Indiana State they are undefeated at home. It doesn't get any easier as the conference leading Panthers follow the Bears into the Hulman Center followed by road games against two hungry teams looking to build momentum before St Louis before meeting Valpo at home to close the year. That game could be very meaningful depending upon how things shake out but I expect them to go 2-3 or 3-2 down the stretch and have a good chance of avoiding Thursday. It might come down to the Valpo game at the end though.

Missouri State 6-7 134 T6 MVC

Needs to go 3-2 to have a 3 in 4 shot of avoiding Thursday Those odds go up to nearly 99% at 4-1.

Remaining Schedule: 2\16 @Indiana State 2\19 @Bradley 2\22 Vs Loyola 2\25 @Valpo 2\29 Vs SIU

Although you can make the argument that among the teams fighting to avoid Thursday Missouri State has been playing the best basketball of any of them (Valpo might have something to say about that though) the Bears probably have the toughest remaining schedule of any team. First they face the Sycamores in Terre Haute who are perfect at home this season. Then they follow that with a trip to Carver to play the resurgent Bradley Braves before returning home to play Loyola and then hitting the road to play our Crusaders followed by a home game with SIU. If you're scoring at home that's 3 remaining games against the top 4 in the conference with tough road games in Terre Haute and Valpo to contend with as well. Fortunately, two of those top four games are at home but it's never easy to play Loyola or SIU even though they have both thrown up some clunkers as a road team. It's an absolutely brutal stretch but if any team is talented enough to come through it it's Missouri State. Realistically, I think they probably go something like 2-3 or so but they are talented enough to win all of these games.

Valpo 6-7 144 T6 MVC

Needs to go 3-2 to have a 3 in 4 chance of avoiding Thursday with 4-1 making it a near certainty.

Remaining Schedule: 2\16 @ Illinois State 2\19 @Drake 2\22 Vs Bradley 2\25 Vs Missouri State 2\29 @ Indiana State

One game at a time needs to be the mantra for this group the rest of the year. Yes that upcoming clash at the Knapp Center is very important but not if you get caught looking ahead and fall into the upset trap against Illinois State. They are playing much better of late too coming off a win at home over Indiana State and a very game effort where they played well in a loss in Cedar Falls to Northern Iowa. If Valpo isn't ready for them they could suffer a very damaging loss. That said, if they can win in Normal and pull off a big surprise in the Knapp Center the Crusaders will be in fine shape as Bradley and Missouri State come to town as they try to secure their first top six finish as an MVC member. I can't help but think that that game in Terre Haute to close the year is going to be significant. I base that on nothing concrete. It's just a feeling brought on most likely because it's the Valley and all of the games matter. There can be no looking ahead though. This upcoming road trip and the two home games that follow are every bit as critical as the ISUb game might be. We're reaching the stage where for teams in our position each game is more important than the last. Anywhere between 2-3 and 4-1 feels possible here. The race should come down to the wire.

Once again check out the great analytic work done by Hacksaw on MVC fans. His data helped me do this schedule breakdown.

http://mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5466&start=50

[VUGrad1314]

Bradley has a big first half and then holds off a huge SIU rally to win in Carbondale evening their records at 9-5. A UNI victory tonight would create a 3 way tie for second place and likely give the Panthers a stranglehold on first place in the race for the regular season title being 3 games up with 4 to play. Maybe we beat the Salukis twice in the sense that they were still looking back on their loss at the ARC which caused them to have such a bad first half. In any case, our game against Bradley just took on a little added significance if we can stay within two games of them before we play them. First things first though we have two important and tough games before that including one tonight. Lock in focus and let's get it done! Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

[VUGrad1314]

Step two... Complete!!! Back to .500 and on to Des Moines for a tough one in the Knapp Center! Two home two away and all of them huge implications in the standings!

2\19 @ Drake 2\22 Vs Bradley 2\25 Vs Missouri State 2\29 @ISUb. I'll try to do another breakdown tomorrow after the Valley Action is done so that we know what we're working with or Monday. But so far we've done waht we have to do to stay alive and we will have plenty of opportunities to make our statement! It's all in front of us now! We can do this! Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

[VUGrad1314]

Loyola with a huge overtime victory at Gentile to pull within a game of the Panthers for the regular season title. UNI has a really tough remaining schedule so this is definitely not over yet. Man this conference is fun! Is this enough parity for some of you fans that like parity throughout the year?  Feels like everyone is still playing meaningful games! I love this!

[valpo84]

Loyola may be heading to an at large consideration after that performance, which is good for MVC.   

[VUGrad1314]

I doubt that very strongly unfortunately. With a NET rating over 100 going in and a REALLY bad loss to Coppin State I sincerely doubt they get there. Their only hope would be winning out and losing to UNI in the Finals but even then I don't think they'd have enough of a resume. Had they not lost to Coppin State and if they had beaten Davidson and Colorado State it would be easier to see their path to an at large but since none of those things happened I doubt they get in.

[oklahomamick]

That was a fun game to watch.  Aj green had a 3 to send it to Ot but the. Received a bloody nose and started playing bad by forcing shots.  I don't think uni scores in OT.

I was going for UNI.  Was really hoping the panthers go undefeated and then lose to a Loyola in the finals and getting an at large. 

[VUGrad1314]

I don't know if they can do it now. Their margin for error prior to the finals has to be pretty much zero now though. Unless South Carolina can keep winning and give UNI a second Q1 win. But even then I don't know.

[VUGrad1314]

I'll take a look at the numbers and remaining schedules once they're posted but it doesn't take a genius to know that Wednesday night in Des Moines is CRITICAL. We NEED This one. It would put us in a great position going into the final three games. This is easily the most important game of the year and I hope the team plays like it! Lock in focus and play well. Take that second half effort and intensity shown against Illinois State and give us two halves of that against Drake! Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

[VUGrad1314]

Here's where we stand now:

Have Successfully Avoided Thursday: UNI*

Locked into Thursday Already: Evansville Illinois State

*Loyola can get there with one win. A single win by Bradley and SIU drops their odds of going to Thursday to .1% and 1.9% respectively.

The numbers like Indiana State and Missouri State to be the teams that emerge from this four way tie for fifth to play on Friday. Valpo has the third highest odds at 54% chance of being a Thursday team so we're in coin flip territory right now. Drake has the lowest odds at 72% but I imagine we both would flip positions depending on the outcome on Wednesday in Des Moines. That game is critical and a must win.

All teams involved in this tie up need at least a 2-2 record to have a reasonable chance at being a Thursday team though Drake would really benefit from being 3-1 as a 3-1 finish drops them from a 74% chance of being a Thursday team to an 11.5% chance. All other teams involved in this four way tie have a better than 99% chance of avoiding Thursday if they go 3-1.

Here we go, done in order of NET Rating:

Indiana State 7-7 T5 MVC 109

Needs to go 2-2 for an 80% chance of avoiding Thursday. Those odds drop to 20% if they finish 1-3.

Remaining Schedule: Feb 20 UNI Feb 23 @ Evansville Feb 26 @SIU Feb 29 Valpo.

The Sycamores had their air of invincibility at home smashed emphatically by Missouri State taking a 71-58 loss yesterday. They have now lost 3 in a row and it doesn't get any easier for them taking on the conference leading Panthers hungry for a victory after a tough loss in Gentile to Loyola. They then follow it up with a tough road trip to Evansville who keeps getting closer and closer to picking somebody off. Is February 23 the night they do it? and to Carbondale where the Salukis have been extremely tough. The Sycamores fortunes could come down to that Valpo game in the Hulman Center on February 29.

Missouri State 7-7 T5 MVC 127

Needs to go 2-2 for a 71% chance of avoiding Thursday the odds of being a Thursday team jump to nearly 89% if they finish 1-3. 3-1 drops their odds of being a Thursday team under 1% which it likewise does for both Indiana State and Valpo as well.
Remaining Schedule: Feb 19 @Bradley Feb 22 Vs Loyola Feb 25 @ Valpo Feb 29 Vs SIU

The Bears have looked like a different team the past 4-5 games since getting run off the floor in the McLeod Center in Cedar Falls to close out January. They have won two in a row including an emphatic beatdown of Drake at home and a somewhat surprising road win @ Indiana State shattering the Sycamores perfect home record on the season. Still, a trip to Carbondale and the ARC  alongside dates with the Ramblers and Salukis is nobody's idea of an easy schedule. If they play the way they've played in February--like the team we all expected them to be at the start of the year--they have a good chance to avoid Thursday, but three quarters of the top four of the conference and a desperate Valpo team will not make it easy on them.

Valpo 7-7 T5 MVC 139

Needs to go 2-2 for a 59% chance of avoiding Thursday 3-1 makes it over a 99% chance.

Remaining Schedule: Feb 19 @Drake Feb 22 Bradley Feb 25 Missouri State Feb 29 @ Indiana State

I've said it before and I'll say it again. This could very well come down to the game in Terre Haute but the game in Des Moines is a must. Like all the teams in this list Valpo needs to take it one game at a time. The schedule did them some favors as the Crusaders only have to face one team in the top 4 of the conference to close out the year. However, their remaining home games are against two of the hottest and most talented teams in the conference. Neither one will be easy even with the ARC crowd behind them. The team very much controls its own destiny, but like Drake, any loss takes the Crusaders margin for error down to near zero. They've done their job so far after falling to 5-7 with that close loss at Gentile winning the next two games but each game going forward features a tough and desperate opponent who needs a win. The Crusaders had better come ready to play every night.

Drake

7-7 T5 MVC 154

Needs to go 2-2 for a 26% chance to avoid Thursday 3-1 gives them just an 11.5 % chance of playing on Thursday while 1-3 makes it a near certainty.

Remaining Schedule: Feb 19 Valpo Feb 22 @ Illinois State Feb 25 @ Loyola Feb 29 UNI

Following a tough loss to Northern Iowa and a blowout in a pivotal road game, the Bulldogs gutted out an 85-80 victory over Evansville to set up this huge date with Valpo on Wednesday. We saw first hand how tough it can be to play in Redbird Arena so that game is far from a given for the Bulldogs and that final week is brutal even if UNI is a home game. The good news is that Drake has been terrific at the Knapp Center. The bad news is Loyola has been terrific at Gentile Arena and the Crusaders might--just might--have learned to win on the road. Pinning your Thursday fortunes on beating (or even splitting) against Loyola and UNI is a really tall order but it's the Valley. Anything is possible. Everything is doable

So there you have it: Drake faces the longest odds but can go a long way toward changing their fortunes if they beat Valpo. Valpo needs this road win desperately as they have two very tough home dates against two hot and talented teams prior to a difficult road game. The numbers favor Indiana State and Missouri State but they have some very tough games on their schedule that could dampen their chances of avoiding Thursday. This is going to be a very interesting and fun race to monitor these next two weeks and nothing is decided by any means. It's all about the results on the court and winning down the stretch. We can do this! We're playing better and we've played ourselves into a better position than we were in a week ago. Let's finish this season strong and play on Friday! Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

[4throwfan]

1314, I'm going to re-phrase your summary slightly, though we might be saying some of the same things.

4 teams are tied at 7-7.  Seems certain that 2 of those 4 teams will play on Thursday.  Valpo plays all three of the others who are in the tie.  Of the teams in the tie, the other three only play Valpo.  So, Valpo's strength in completing will have a significant affect on all 4 teams.  Valpo already has one home win against two of the other three, and an away loss against the other.  So, if each team holds wins at home while playing against tie-mates, then chances of Valpo playing on Thursday go up, because that means that Valpo went 1-2 against the other teams in the tie.  That puts Valpo at 8-9, with a home game at Bradley as the only other game.  If VU wins that game (big IF), then it finishes 9-9. 

As 1314 pointed out, Drake seems to have the toughest battle ahead.  I kinda think that they will take one of the two open Thursday slots.

Only 5 potential final results are available for Valpo:

A.  11-7
B.  10-8
C.  9-9
D.  8-10
E.   7-11

Seems to me that D & E = Thursday, with C being a risky unknown for now.  Which means, holding serve at home, plus one road win to get it done.  A would be really nice.

[VUGrad1314]

How big is this Drake game? Take a look at this isolated outcomes simulation(Scroll down to Hacksaw's latest posts).

A win by Valpo drops our odds of being a Thursday team (for the time being after the game) to a cool 32%. A loss raises them to 68% and takes away much of our margin for error.

A win by Drake drops their chances of being a Thursday team to 58% but a loss puts them at a 93% chance. This team is going to have the home crowd behind them where they have been terrific and they are going to be desperate. Valpo had better be ready. This is the biggest game of the season. Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

http://mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5461&start=40

[VUGrad1314]

Good article on Evansville...

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2020/2/20/21143635/evansvilles-todd-lickliter-is-still-singing-the-song

[VUGrad1314]

The level of disrespect being shown to UNI and the MVC is just shocking. I understand the Panthers didn't do themselves any favors with that 0-2 week but come on man...

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28577356/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-updated-look-wildest-bubble-years