MVC Hoops 2019-2020

[VUGrad1314]

Multi bids  are fine, but I would much rather see good competition game in and game out throughout the season with good teams and parity.  Watching many good competitive games all year long beats seeing one and done in the NCAA tourney.

Newsflash: If you have a multibid league you usually get good games throughout the year because it means your league is probably pretty good. And Parity is possible even in multi bid leagues because it may not be the same teams making it every year. And teams from multi bid leagues usually aren't one and done in the Tournament. At least one of them usually wins a game or two at least. And even if they don't just having multiple bids is like winning the first round game before you even play. Multiple bids should be the goal every single year even if it means there are some bad teams at the bottom. Let's face it WE'VE been one of those bad teams our first two years. Before we start throwing stones about wanting more good competitive games (I don't know how you could want more than you've been getting from this conference) let's make sure we aren't one of the bad teams everybody else dreads having to play because it's an easy win that does nothing for them.

[4throwfan]

Multi bids  are fine, but I would much rather see good competition game in and game out throughout the season with good teams and parity.  Watching many good competitive games all year long beats seeing one and done in the NCAA tourney.

Newsflash: If you have a multibid league you usually get good games throughout the year because it means your league is probably pretty good. And Parity is possible even in multi bid leagues because it may not be the same teams making it every year. And teams from multi bid leagues usually aren't one and done in the Tournament. At least one of them usually wins a game or two at least. And even if they don't just having multiple bids is like winning the first round game before you even play. Multiple bids should be the goal every single year even if it means there are some bad teams at the bottom. Let's face it WE'VE been one of those bad teams our first two years. Before we start throwing stones about wanting more good competitive games (I don't know how you could want more than you've been getting from this conference) let's make sure we aren't one of the bad teams everybody else dreads having to play because it's an easy win that does nothing for them.

1314, sorry, I'm just not following what you're saying.  I think at first you're saying that we should all want parity AND multiple bids.  Fine, we should all want that, and multiple final four teams.  But, as we sit here, it's just not going to happen with the current level of performance. 

You then say that multiple bids should be the goal "every single year even if it means there are some bad teams at the bottom."  That, by definition, is not parity.  So, it seems that you've shifted to only wanting multiple bids.  Plus, if two teams go 1-17, and the other eight teams go 12-6 (i.e, some sort of quasi-parity, which is kind of what we have now), then that will very likely mean one bid for a mid-major conference, even if two of the teams essentially go undefeated out of conference. 

For a mid-major conference to have multiple bids, the at-larges will likely need to go nearly undefeated out of conference and in conference.  Again, that is veering away from parity.

Look at it this way, if every team in the conference goes roughly 11-2 out of conference, and then goes 9-9 in conference - in other words, there was great performance and parity - then the MVC is a one-bid league that year.  I know that sucks, but it is the reality.

For the MVC, parity and at-large bids are diametrically opposed.  The more that we have of one, the less that we will have of the other.  So, Valpo64's comment of essentially wanting more parity at the expense of bids did have a logical foundation.  You may not like the premise, but it was sound.

[VUGrad1314]

It was sound if you start from the flawed and mistaken assumption that the bottom teams will always be on the bottom and the top teams on the top. There is nothing to say in the post-Wichita Valley where nobody is outspending their conference mates by 2.5-3 times that any team with the right mix of players and coaching can't take the mantle and carry the conference on a year to year basis. Look at the NFL. That league as an amazing example of parity especially the model of parity that I am talking about. The league has multiple different playoff teams every year and they have some bad (like historically 0-16 bad) teams in that league. I can use just the last two years to illustrate this point:

In the NFC, last year's Super Bowl representative (the LA Rams) missed the playoffs this year In their place, a team that missed the playoffs last year (the San Francisco 49 ers) are going to the Super Bowl to represent the conference. Look at the standings the past several years and you'll see teams rise and fall. You'll see teams have seasons where they make the playoffs (Miami Oakland NY Giants Dallas LA\SD Chargers Indianapolis Minnesota) and years when they miss the playoffs. Sometimes some divisions get two even three teams in sometimes it's only one. In this landscape, except for avoiding the pitfall of only getting one team in (at least on a permanent annual basis sometimes it happens occasionally and that can't be helped) This is the parity model we should be striving for and it IS achievable.

[4throwfan]

1314, I was still trying to follow what you're saying, and I think I now understand.  If I'm right, we're talking about two different things.  I (and I believe Valpo64) was talking about parity in a single year.  I believe that you're talking about parity over multiple years.  I think that you're saying that teams' records will fluctuate over the years, but if the average win percentage over the years is .500 for all teams in conference, then that's parity, and would allow for multiple bids because some teams would be really good in a given year, while some are not so good.  Is that right?

You could well be right, but I (and Valpo64) was talking about something different.  I was talking about parity in a single year.  In other words, all teams finish near .500 in conference.  The first place team might be 11-7, and the last place team might be 7-11.  In my example, there would be parity, and the dreaded single bid.  Which teams are in first place, and which teams are in last place, and whether or not they rotated over the years, simply wouldn't be relevant.

I think that Valpo64 was saying that he'd rather see a 10-way tie at 9-9 than a wide spread with multiple bids.  A 10-way tie at 9-9 would be pretty exciting, and I could see the enticement of that, so his point is valid, even if someone doesn't agree.

[VUGrad1314]

That makes sense from a game to game fan interest standpoint but we've seen how people pack the gym for ranked teams and how hyped we were when the HL was a multibid league. I'd rather have one or two great atmospheres than a ten way tie in the middle. The MVC should always send its best team or teams to the dance no matter who it is because at the end of the day it's all about tournament wins and credits. That's the entire point of joining the MVC. If we were content to be in a one and done one bid league there was no need for us to move because not only could we have accomplished that where we were we could have BEEN that one and done team more often than not. But that's not exciting. I don't want to be a team that just gets to the tournament and bows out. I want to be a team that wins and strikes terror in the hearts of high majors drawn to play against us even on neutral floors or in away games.  I want to be part of a league that wins. And we have that and I'm grateful. Now I just want us to get to the point where we're competing well and winning our fair share of games and titles in this new and better league. If we can minimize the really down years I (and I think the overwhelming majority of the fanbase) will be very happy.

[VALPO LI]

As I watch our Crusaders battle at home in the ARC this season I have to wonder where we stand with our attendance for the 2019-20 season and how does that compare with the rest of the Valley.
With non conference games behind us, 4 conference home games played and 5 left here is the total average number of spectators attending MVC Home Games for this season.

School. Home record. Avg. in attendance.

Bradley (11-1) 5,700
Evansville (5-5) 5,232
IllSt. (6-4) 4,521
SIU (9-1) 4,114
MoSt. (7-3) 4,081
UNI (11-0) 3,894
ISUb (8-0) 3,554
Valpo (7-1) 2,878
Drake (11-0) 2,870
Loyola (9-2) 2,789

Average home attendance in the MVC 3,963

Now it is only fair to compare the average attendance to the capacity of each arena.

UNI McLead Ctr. Holds (6,650) and is filling at an average of 59% capacity.
Valpo ARC (5,100) 57%
Loyola Gentile Ctr. (4,963) 57%
Evansville Ford Ctr. (10,000) 53%
Bradley Carver Arena (11,060) 52%
ISUb Hulman Ctr. (10,200) 52%
SIU Banterra Ctr. (8,284) 50%
IllSt. Redbird Arena (10,200) 45%
Drake Knapp Ctr. (7,152) 40%
MoSt. JQH Arena (11,000) 37%

*for our good friend 1314 here is Murray State.
**and while I am at it let's include Belmont a school that plays in a similar size arena to Valpo.

Murray St. (10-0) 4,307 avg. attendance at the CFSB Ctr. which holds 8,600 fans 51% full.
Belmont (8-1) 1,990 avg. attendance at the Curb Event Ctr. which holds 5,000 fans at 40% full.

With 5 home games left Valpo needs a strong showing to stay ahead of Drake and Loyola in overall attendance.

[valpopal]

With 5 home games left Valpo needs a strong showing to stay ahead of Drake and Loyola in overall attendance.

Unfortunately, Valpo's home conference attendance figures look to only go down from this point forward. The Loyola game, already in the books, traditionally sees the largest crowd (4364 this year, 5148 last year), and the other conference home games played thus far include in-state competition (Indiana St. and Evansville). The fourth game against Drake was the second largest conference draw at the ARC last year. The remaining home games include the three lowest drawing conference teams from last year: Missouri St., Southern Illinois, and Bradley. I wouldn't rely on UNI and Illinois State pulling enough fans to counter the likely low attendance for those three.

[VALPO LI]

To compare with last year:
School, 2019 to 2020
Loyola 5,148 to 4,364 (L both years)
Drake 4,160 to 3,190 (L 2019, W 2020)
ISUb 3,014 to 2,805* (L 2019, W 2020) *Sat night game.
Evansville 2,592 to 3,044 (L 2019, W 2,020)
IllSt. 3,818 (W 2019)
UNI 3,160 (W 2019)
SIU  2,371 (W 2019)
Bradley 3,160 (W 2019)
MoSt. 1,333 (L 2019) ** Blizzard

Attendance is already down a total of 1,511 for those 4 games played compared to last season.

[talksalot]

I see we have a half-time performer scheduled for Saturday night....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVTYRox_bu0

and I see the Valpo Chamber of Commerce (which is has 800 members) is promoting the UNI game with $12.50 chairbacks and a pre-game reception.

I was at the Bradley game at the Civic Center last night.   the 114 members of the "Basketball Band Course" were in attendance, and so were the 12 students.   Actually, it was only 10.  I talked to the band director and he said that 2 of the regular student attendees were in class.  5,037 attendance.  Not counting the Bradley Cross Country team there to show off their Conference Championship trophy they won At VALPO last fall, Cheerleaders and Dance Team... there were exactly 10 students.

OK... and let's talk "Sponsorships."   I really thought this was just wrong... but maybe it's me.

When a Valpo player stepped to the line for a 2-shot foul... as the referee was handing him the ball... the PA guy says "REMEMBER TO TEXT CRUSENS TO 91880 IF THE PLAYER MISSES BOTH FREE THROWS FOR YOUR CHANCE FOR FREE PIZZA".   This is AFTER the player had the ball bounced to him.

BTW, Nobody won any pizza last night on that promotion.

Any thoughts on that? 

[M]

Kind've bush league to be saying stuff after the player has the ball. Reminds me of when the VU band would come on the court and aim their instruments into the opposing teams huddle at a timeout, lol. I do like the sponsorship for missed free throws though. Lots of sponsorship opportunities to explore....have to have to a dance partner though to make them all happen.

[valpo84]

The Simon Says guy is excellent.  He usually does 1-2 Cavs games a year. Not Red Panda, but next level half-time show.

[talksalot]

The Simon Says

to help you google him... it's really Simon Sez  (if you add "Halftime act" you'll avoid all of the Mexican Restaurants)

[VUGrad1314]

MVC analytics indicates a 58% chance that we end up a Thursday team with a high probability (56%) of finishing 7th or 8th. We also have a credible shot (22%) at getting the sixth spot and avoiding Thursday with some hope (19%) for higher with our next highest probabilities being 12% for fifth and 5% for fourth. There is also a 2% shot that we finish either third or ninth.

http://mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5466

[NativeCheesehead]

Even a 6th place finish would be a huge mark of progress for this program. Regardless of result from there, that finish and an off-season without too many impact transfers would be a huge momentum builder going forward. If this happens I would fully be on board with a Lottich contract extension. (It's not the years that matter, it's the buy out.)

[Just Sayin]

As of today's KenPom rankings, both the NC and C games for the season are ranked in the same order as the conf. only rankings.
                         
1.   N. Iowa
2.   Loyola
3.   Bradley
4.   Ind. St
5.   So. Illinois
6.   Drake
7.   Valpo
8.   Miz. St.
9.   Ill. St.
10. Evansville

[VUGrad1314]

As of today according to the MVC Analytics we have a 79% chance of being a Thursday team with a whopping 51% chance of finishing 8th. We might be slowly improving but these are not good numbers and there's really no way to dress them up to make them look good.

http://mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5466&start=10

[VALPO LI]

Home game attendance update for this year so far. With 3 more home games left.

Just in conference this year (5 out of 6 games had less fans in attendance compared to last year.

Loyola 4,364 (2020) Lost - 5,148 (2019) Lost
Drake 3,190 (2020) Won - 4,160 (2019) Lost
Ind.St. 2,805 (2020) Won - 3,014 (2019) Lost
Evansville 3,044 (2020) Won - 2,592 (2019) Lost
Ill.St. 3,220 (2020) Won - 3,818 (2019) Won
UNI 2,030 (2020) Lost - 3,160 (2019) Won

Average attendance during conference play in 2019 was 3,126 with a home record of 4-5.
Average attendance so far during conference play in 2020 is 3,109 with a home record of 4-2 with 3 more games to go.

Need a strong showing in the last 3 home games to stay ahead of last years attendance record.

[vu72]

Home game attendance update for this year so far. With 3 more home games left.

Just in conference this year (5 out of 6 games had less fans in attendance compared to last year.

Loyola 4,364 (2020) Lost - 5,148 (2019) Lost
Drake 3,190 (2020) Won - 4,160 (2019) Lost
Ind.St. 2,805 (2020) Won - 3,014 (2019) Lost
Evansville 3,044 (2020) Won - 2,592 (2019) Lost
Ill.St. 3,220 (2020) Won - 3,818 (2019) Won
UNI 2,030 (2020) Lost - 3,160 (2019) Won

Average attendance during conference play in 2019 was 3,126 with a home record of 4-5.
Average attendance so far during conference play in 2020 is 3,109 with a home record of 4-2 with 3 more games to go.

Need a strong showing in the last 3 home games to stay ahead of last years attendance record.

Seeing that we are basically tied with Northern Iowa and Indiana State, I think we are holding our own.  Those two schools have enrollments of over 10,000.

[VALPO LI]

Sorry if I wasn't clear but the numbers in bold are attendance #'s at the ARC for each game played for 2020 compared to 2019.  It shows so far in conference play our attendance is slightly down but we still have 3 games to go.
My earlier post dated 1/28 showed us averaging closer to Drake and Loyola in attendance. 

[valpopal]

Sorry if I wasn't clear but the numbers in bold are attendance #'s at the ARC for each game played for 2020 compared to 2019.  It shows so far in conference play our attendance is slightly down but we still have 3 games to go.
My earlier post dated 1/28 showed us averaging closer to Drake and Loyola in attendance.

I wouldn't count on attendance rising. More likely, the average will decline. The remaining home games include the three lowest drawing conference teams from last year: Missouri St., Southern Illinois, and Bradley. The Saturday night "Hall of Fame" game against Bradley will be our best bet for a good crowd.

[wh]

Home game attendance update for this year so far. With 3 more home games left.

Just in conference this year (5 out of 6 games had less fans in attendance compared to last year.

Loyola 4,364 (2020) Lost - 5,148 (2019) Lost
Drake 3,190 (2020) Won - 4,160 (2019) Lost
Ind.St. 2,805 (2020) Won - 3,014 (2019) Lost
Evansville 3,044 (2020) Won - 2,592 (2019) Lost
Ill.St. 3,220 (2020) Won - 3,818 (2019) Won
UNI 2,030 (2020) Lost - 3,160 (2019) Won

Average attendance during conference play in 2019 was 3,126 with a home record of 4-5.
Average attendance so far during conference play in 2020 is 3,109 with a home record of 4-2 with 3 more games to go.

Need a strong showing in the last 3 home games to stay ahead of last years attendance record.

Seeing that we are basically tied with Northern Iowa and Indiana State, I think we are holding our own.  Those two schools have enrollments of over 10,000.

Not everything is gloom and doom. The atmosphere at the ARC is infinitely better than any year in recent memory - return of halftime shows, the RailCats promo guy (a real pro), new (to the ARC) music blaring away at key moments, a very engaging big time pizza giveaway student shooting event, etc.

Two takeaways:
• I can only speak for my family, but the game time fun stuff I described above makes losing a little less dramatic. It's more like it's a shame we lost, but we still had a good time. In other words, the game is the main attractions, but not the only attraction. I hope that makes sense.
• I'm confident that when we start winning consistently again, that place is going to rock again. I can see a 4000+ average in our future.

[VALPO LI]

Like your reply "wh"
-good to hear the atmosphere has gotten better.  I just would have thought the attendance numbers would have been a little higher with us having an 8-2 home record.

[valpopal]

• I'm confident that when we start winning consistently again, that place is going to rock again. I can see a 4000+ average in our future.

I hope you are correct, but mark me down as very skeptical. In our peak season when the team won 30 games and went to the NIT finals in 15-16 with Alec Peters, the average attendance was 3573. That includes a stellar home schedule with teams like Iona, Belmont, Missouri State, as well as the big local draw against IPFW, and three NIT games, with the two against Florida State and St. Mary's (helped by an on-campus Lutheran school tournament draw, if I remember correctly) totaling 10,435. I don't see a scenario that would top that season, even if we made the NCAA tournament, particularly because that would eliminate those NIT home games. I see the best possible average we could hope to achieve would be about 3500.

[VUGrad1314]

Like your reply "wh" -good to hear the atmosphere has gotten better.  I just would have thought the attendance numbers would have been a little higher with us having an 8-2 home record.

It's not that surprising. We're not competing and haven't for years. You have to follow the team really closely to know we're improving at all because right now with the same issues over and over again it doesn't look that way to the casual fan. People are tired. They're exhausted. The Lottich era has been very trying for all fans casual and die hard and only the die hards who are willing to put in the energy to take the deeper looks from game to game and see the small incremental improvements can see it. But it just takes too much energy to do so.

[wh]

• I'm confident that when we start winning consistently again, that place is going to rock again. I can see a 4000+ average in our future.

I hope you are correct, but mark me down as very skeptical. In our peak season when the team won 30 games and went to the NIT finals in 15-16 with Alec Peters, the average attendance was 3573. That includes a stellar home schedule with teams like Iona, Belmont, Missouri State, as well as the big local draw against IPFW, and three NIT games, with the two against Florida State and St. Mary's (helped by an on-campus Lutheran school tournament draw, if I remember correctly) totaling 10,435. I don't see a scenario that would top that season, even if we made the NCAA tournament, particularly because that would eliminate those NIT home games. I see the best possible average we could hope to achieve would be about 3500.

You make a strong argument for a 3500 ceiling. I'm thinking that being a top team in the Valley would carry more prestige and garner more attention locally, regionally and even nationally, and that would translate into more people wanting to see the Crusaders play in person. Just an educated guess, nothing more. Hopefully, we get a chance to find out.