Valpo vs. Loyola Game Thread, Mon., Dec. 30, 2019, 7:00 p.m. CT

[wh]

After finishing the nonconference slate with a winning record for the 10th straight season, Valpo will open the league slate at home for the second straight year.

Loyola leads the all-time series 39-15, including a 5-0 mark over the last two seasons since Valpo joined the Missouri Valley Conference. The most recent regular season meeting was Feb. 10, 2019 at the ARC, when Valpo held a nine-point lead with just over seven minutes remaining before the Ramblers scored the next 13 points and Valpo eventually fell 56-51 in front of a capacity crowd. The two teams also faced off in the MVC Tournament a year ago, a 67-54 victory for Loyola on March 8.

Tidbits:

•Valpo will attempt to snap its five-game skid against the Ramblers, which dates back to the final Horizon League meeting between the two teams on Feb. 19, 2013. Valpo prevailed 85-76 at Loyola.

•Valpo finished the nonconference schedule with a scoring average of 76.3, the team's highest nonconference scoring average since entering the 2013-14 league slate at 77.1.

•This marks the second time in the last three years Valpo entered Valley play as the conference leader in steals per game (8.7) after also doing so in 2017-18 (7.8 spg).

•Javon Freeman-Liberty (21.8 ppg) becomes the first Valpo player to enter conference action as the league's leading scorer since 2016-17, when Alec Peters started Horizon League play at 25.5 points per game.

•Freeman-Liberty (33) is also the first Valpo player to enter conference play leading the way in steals since 2016-17, when Lexus Williams topped the Horizon League at 1.8 per game.

•This is the first time Valpo started conference action atop the statistical leaderboard in assists (16.7 apg) since 2011-12, when Valpo started Horizon League action averaging 14.7 assists per game.

•Freeman-Liberty is trying to become the first player to lead The Valley in both scoring and steals since Drake's Curt Smith in 1993.

•Valpo is trying to become the first Valley team to lead the league in both assists and steals since Bradley in 2008.

Source: Valpo Athletics Website

[covufan]

We had too many disappointing games in the first two years of MVC play. This team has played very well at times, but is still searching for that defensive identity. I think we find it against Loyola.

Valpo   77
Loyola  71


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[VUBBFan]

From Loyola's web site:


CHICAGO (December 26, 2019) - Loyola begins its seventh season of Missouri Valley Conference play Monday night when it visits local rival Valparaiso. The Ramblers had a five-game win streak, their longest since 2017-18, halted with a 59-56 loss to Davidson December 22.
Winning on the road has been key to Loyola's back-to-back MVC regular-season titles. Since the start of 2017-18, the Ramblers are 11-7 (.611) on the road in league play.
Since joining The Valley for the 2013-14 season, Loyola is 2-4 (.333) in MVC openers and last season dealt Indiana State a 79-44 loss to kick off league play. All time, the Ramblers are 19-21 (.475) in conference openers, but just 3-9 in their last 12 league lid-lifters.

Loyola – Valparaiso – The Series
Monday's game will be the 55th meeting between the Ramblers and Crusaders in a series that began in 1922. Loyola has claimed six of the last seven matchups, including each of the last five, and owns a 39-15 edge in the all-time series.
Loyola is 19-8 against the Crusaders in Valparaiso and has prevailed in four of the last five games at the ARC, including each of the last three. The Ramblers are 5-0 against Valpo since becoming a member of the Missouri Valley Conference.
When the teams last met, in the MVC Championship quarterfinal round in St. Louis last March, Cameron Krutwig totaled 18 points to power Loyola to a 67-54 victory. The Ramblers built a 40-18 halftime advantage and led by as many as 27 points.

Scouting Valparaiso
Since winning four of their first five games of 2019-20, Valparaiso has stumbled in five of its last eight contests and has dropped two of its last three outings. The Crusaders have defended their home floor well this season and are a perfect 4-0 at the ARC, with three of those wins coming by 14 or more points.
Valpo has lost six of its last seven regular-season Valley games overall and five of its last six conference games at home dating back to last season.
Sophomore Javon Freeman-Liberty is off to a fantastic start to the season, averaging 21.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.5 steals per game. The 6-foot-3 guard was a teammate of Loyola junior guard Lucas Williamson at Whitney Young High School in Chicago.

[wh]

STARTERS   MIN   FG   3PT   FT   OREB   DREB   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TO   PF   PTS
R. Fazekas 23  7-16   4-10   5-6     2             2            4   0   1   0   1   2   23

Game 1 - Toledo  Ryan's only complete game this season.  23 points in 23 minutes - a career high.  16 highly productive shots - a team high.  4-10 from 3.  Rest of the team was 2-11. 

If/when Ryan returns and assuming he's in game shape when he does, Valpo will be instantly better.. Close losses will become close wins.  Bottom 6 will become top 4, maybe better.  Book it.

[wh]

From Loyola's web site:


CHICAGO (December 26, 2019) - Loyola begins its seventh season of Missouri Valley Conference play Monday night when it visits local rival Valparaiso. The Ramblers had a five-game win streak, their longest since 2017-18, halted with a 59-56 loss to Davidson December 22.
Winning on the road has been key to Loyola's back-to-back MVC regular-season titles. Since the start of 2017-18, the Ramblers are 11-7 (.611) on the road in league play.
Since joining The Valley for the 2013-14 season, Loyola is 2-4 (.333) in MVC openers and last season dealt Indiana State a 79-44 loss to kick off league play. All time, the Ramblers are 19-21 (.475) in conference openers, but just 3-9 in their last 12 league lid-lifters.

Loyola – Valparaiso – The Series
Monday's game will be the 55th meeting between the Ramblers and Crusaders in a series that began in 1922. Loyola has claimed six of the last seven matchups, including each of the last five, and owns a 39-15 edge in the all-time series.
Loyola is 19-8 against the Crusaders in Valparaiso and has prevailed in four of the last five games at the ARC, including each of the last three. The Ramblers are 5-0 against Valpo since becoming a member of the Missouri Valley Conference.
When the teams last met, in the MVC Championship quarterfinal round in St. Louis last March, Cameron Krutwig totaled 18 points to power Loyola to a 67-54 victory. The Ramblers built a 40-18 halftime advantage and led by as many as 27 points.

Scouting Valparaiso
Since winning four of their first five games of 2019-20, Valparaiso has stumbled in five of its last eight contests and has dropped two of its last three outings. The Crusaders have defended their home floor well this season and are a perfect 4-0 at the ARC, with three of those wins coming by 14 or more points.
Valpo has lost six of its last seven regular-season Valley games overall and five of its last six conference games at home dating back to last season.
Sophomore Javon Freeman-Liberty is off to a fantastic start to the season, averaging 21.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.5 steals per game. The 6-foot-3 guard was a teammate of Loyola junior guard Lucas Williamson at Whitney Young High School in Chicago.

Here's a couple of stats the author missed:

The combined record of the 7 D-1 opponents Loyola defeated is 34-56 (.378).
The combined record of the 6 D-1 opponents Valpo defeated is 31-44 (.413).

The combined record of the 5 opponents who defeated Loyola is 35-29 (.547).
The combined record of the 6 opponents who defeated Valpo is 50-20 (.714).

[Just Sayin]

From Loyola's web site:


CHICAGO (December 26, 2019) - Loyola begins its seventh season of Missouri Valley Conference play Monday night when it visits local rival Valparaiso. The Ramblers had a five-game win streak, their longest since 2017-18, halted with a 59-56 loss to Davidson December 22.
Winning on the road has been key to Loyola's back-to-back MVC regular-season titles. Since the start of 2017-18, the Ramblers are 11-7 (.611) on the road in league play.
Since joining The Valley for the 2013-14 season, Loyola is 2-4 (.333) in MVC openers and last season dealt Indiana State a 79-44 loss to kick off league play. All time, the Ramblers are 19-21 (.475) in conference openers, but just 3-9 in their last 12 league lid-lifters.

Loyola – Valparaiso – The Series
Monday's game will be the 55th meeting between the Ramblers and Crusaders in a series that began in 1922. Loyola has claimed six of the last seven matchups, including each of the last five, and owns a 39-15 edge in the all-time series.
Loyola is 19-8 against the Crusaders in Valparaiso and has prevailed in four of the last five games at the ARC, including each of the last three. The Ramblers are 5-0 against Valpo since becoming a member of the Missouri Valley Conference.
When the teams last met, in the MVC Championship quarterfinal round in St. Louis last March, Cameron Krutwig totaled 18 points to power Loyola to a 67-54 victory. The Ramblers built a 40-18 halftime advantage and led by as many as 27 points.

Scouting Valparaiso
Since winning four of their first five games of 2019-20, Valparaiso has stumbled in five of its last eight contests and has dropped two of its last three outings. The Crusaders have defended their home floor well this season and are a perfect 4-0 at the ARC, with three of those wins coming by 14 or more points.
Valpo has lost six of its last seven regular-season Valley games overall and five of its last six conference games at home dating back to last season.
Sophomore Javon Freeman-Liberty is off to a fantastic start to the season, averaging 21.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.5 steals per game. The 6-foot-3 guard was a teammate of Loyola junior guard Lucas Williamson at Whitney Young High School in Chicago.

Here's a couple of stats the author missed:

The combined record of the 7 D-1 opponents Loyola defeated is 34-56 (.378).
The combined record of the 6 D-1 opponents Valpo defeated is 31-44 (.413).

The combined record of the 5 opponents who defeated Loyola is 35-29 (.547).
The combined record of the 6 opponents who defeated Valpo is 50-20 (.714).

Those are good observations.  Should be a barn-burner.

[VUGrad1314]

We'd be getting so much more respect if we had just finished against Cincinnati and Arkansas... Hopefully we see some encouraging results this year and next year is the year we really (finally) take off and compete for what we've all been hoping for since we moved to the MVC.

[oklahomamick]

Hopefully the ARC will be packed and loud.  The ARC was a difficult place to play on the road.

[VUGrad1314]

If it's anything like recent years it will be but it will also be full of Loyola supporters.

[justducky]

If/when Ryan returns and assuming he's in game shape when he does, Valpo will be instantly better.. Close losses will become close wins.  Bottom 6 will become top 4, maybe better.  Book it.

Not only will our offense improve but our defense should also allow fewer openings. Ryan knows where to be on the floor and what he needs to do when he gets there. I realize that it sounds simple but freshmen are freshmen and seniors know the ropes.

[covufan]

Hopefully the ARC will be packed and loud.  The ARC was a difficult place to play on the road.

Unless VU is giving away tickets, it should be sparse crowd. No students


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[FWalum]

If/when Ryan returns and assuming he's in game shape when he does, Valpo will be instantly better.. Close losses will become close wins.  Bottom 6 will become top 4, maybe better.  Book it.

Not only will our offense improve but our defense should also allow fewer openings. Ryan knows where to be on the floor and what he needs to do when he gets there. I realize that it sounds simple but freshmen are freshmen and seniors know the ropes.

Couldn't agree more with your thoughts on Ryan's affect on the teams defensive play.  I think it has been easy for us to overlook the Fazekas injury with the way JFL has played, but if Ryan had remained healthy JFL might not even be our leading scorer or at the least I would expect that we would have two players scoring in the upper teens per game.  Could a would a should a made a huge difference in our OOC schedule wins and losses offensively not to even mention the potential for better defensive play.

[valpotx]

Hopefully the ARC will be packed and loud.  The ARC was a difficult place to play on the road.

Unless VU is giving away tickets, it should be sparse crowd. No students


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The current/recent students don't show up regardless.  I think that we will get 3,500+.

Valpo 79
Loyola 72

[NativeCheesehead]

Honestly think someone wins this game by double digits. No idea which team.

[Just Sayin]

Loyola's defensive efficiency is much better than ours.  If we don't  match or beat them on defense, they win, likely a close win as we have home court advantage which is about 3.5 points.

[VALPO LI]

From Loyola's web site:


CHICAGO (December 26, 2019) - Loyola begins its seventh season of Missouri Valley Conference play Monday night when it visits local rival Valparaiso.........

Did Loyola actually call Valparaiso a rival???

[VUGrad1314]

Well we have plenty of shared history from the HL days we're their closest opponent both religiously affiliated private schools (Catholic vs Protetstant dynamic) but I think they just mean that we're rivals in the sense that we're rivals with all MVC teams because we're all vying for the same crown.

[EddieCabot]

Hopefully the ARC will be packed and loud.  The ARC was a difficult place to play on the road.

Unless VU is giving away tickets, it should be sparse crowd. No students


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The current/recent students don't show up regardless.  I think that we will get 3,500+.

Valpo 79
Loyola 72

Good call by tx.  Valpo drew 3,800+ for a January 2nd game last season.  Hopefully, no competition from HS events means parents will bring their kids to a game (or just send their HS kids to get them out of the house for a while!).  Loyola still has name recognition from their Final 4 run and they will definitely bring some fans.

[valpo64]

We hope for a big crowd but the students wont make that big of difference in terms of number.  Noise and energy they will be a factor.  It looks like the seats in the visitors area have been selling so I would expect a good LU representation.

[Just Sayin]

Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency for Valpo and Loyola:

AdjOE Loyola 100.4 (Points scored per 100 possessions)
AdjDE Valpo   100.6 (Points allowed per 100 possessions)
Advantage: Loyola will likely score their average plus .2pts

AdjOE Valpo 100.6 (Points scored per 100 possessions)
AdjDE Loyola  94.8 (Points allowed per 100 possessions)
Advantage: Loyola will likely keep Valpo below its average points scored by 5.8pts.

Total Advantage Loyola, both offense and defense
5.8 + .2 = 6

Total Advantage 6
HCA to Valpo     3.5
Net Advantage to Loyola = 2.5 points.

KenPom's expected victor is Loyola by 1 point.

The difference, I'm guessing, is likely attributable to some type of calculation for strength of schedule.

Sagarin rank Valpo 161; Loyola 116
Pomeroy rank Valpo 164; Loyola 106
NET rank Valpo 138; Loyola 148
Sports-Ref rank Valpo 159; Loyola 104
Realtime RPI Rank: Valpo 128; Loyola 208

[justducky]

It looks like the seats in the visitors area have been selling so I would expect a good LU representation.

Yes. Only 1 seat remaining in E, one in D and one in C. B still has 14 and A has a bunch remaining. Chairbacks are also going pretty strong.

Good call by tx.  Valpo drew 3,800+ for a January 2nd game last season.

Looking at mezzanine sales I am going to venture a guess of 4100. I hope I am still too low.

[EddieCabot]

Here's a couple of stats the author missed:

The combined record of the 7 D-1 opponents Loyola defeated is 34-56 (.378).
The combined record of the 6 D-1 opponents Valpo defeated is 31-44 (.413).

The combined record of the 5 opponents who defeated Loyola is 35-29 (.547).
The combined record of the 6 opponents who defeated Valpo is 50-20 (.714).

Good analysis ... thanks for compiling this.

[VUBBFan]

I hope they bring in a local High School band so at least we have a pep band since the students are gone. That way the student section will have some people in it.

[wh]

I hope they bring in a local High School band so at least we have a pep band since the students are gone. That way the student section will have some people in it.

Added bonus...the last HS pep band (Chesterton, maybe) had way more than 10 members.

New Year's wishes for the ARC:
• Make parking a problem again
• Make concession lines long again
• Make counting students hard again
• Make ears ring again

[wh]

Early spread: EVEN

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/loyola-chicago-valparaiso-odds-december-30-2019-1194332