Pomeroy Trends Valpo: In-Conference Only

[Just Sayin]

I think at this time, only four games or so have been played in the conference, but this is the starting point in the new year for looking at developing trends within conference.
                         All Numbers and (Rank) are In-Conference Only

2020       Efficiency                          Offense                         Defense
Date    AdjOE   AdjDE     3%       2%      FT%      EFG%      3%         2%        
1/1       91.2(8) 95.6(4) 33.3(8) 51.6(6)   66.7(4)    50.9(6)   35.7(6)   45.7(3)

[Just Sayin]

All Numbers and (Rank) are In-Conference Only
The latest date represents cumulative totals since conference games began on 12/30/19.
2020         Efficiency                            Offense                           Defense
Date    AdjOE      AdjDE    3%        2%       FT%       EFG%        3%         2%        
1/1        91.2(8)   95.6(4)  33.3(8) 51.6(6)   66.7(4)    50.9(6)     35.7(6)   45.7(3)
1/4      100.3(5)  101.0(5)  39.6(2) 46.5(8)   83.3(1)    52.0(4)     35.9(5)   50.0(4)   

Takeaway:

Thus far with only two games played, we are a 5th place team in conference relative to every other team in conference.

Adjusted Efficiency Margin In Conference Only (Teams sorted alphabetically)
(AdjOE minus AdjDE) = How Pomeroy ranks all teams
Bradley         2.2(4)
Drake          -2.8(8)
Evansville  -10.9(10)
Illinois St.    -4.4(9)
Indiana St.    5.9(2)
Loyola           5.3(3)
Missouri St.   7.2(1)
No. Iowa      -0.7(6-7)
So. Illinois     0.0(5)
Valpo           -0.7(6-7)

Takeway:

In just the first two games, the best team is Missouri State, the preseason favorite by coaches, etc., to win the conference.

[Just Sayin]

All Numbers and (Rank) are In-Conference Only For Valpo
The latest date represents cumulative totals since conference games began on 12/30/19.
2020         Efficiency                            Offense                           Defense
Date    AdjOE      AdjDE    3%        2%       FT%       EFG%        3%         2%        
1/1        91.2(8)   95.6(4)  33.3(8) 51.6(6)   66.7(4)    50.9(6)     35.7(6)   45.7(3)
1/4      100.3(5)  101.0(5)  39.6(2) 46.5(8)   83.3(1)    52.0(4)     35.9(5)   50.0(4)
1/8        93.1(8)    99.8(6)  34.6(6) 43.8(10) 65.6(8)    47.3(10)   40.0(8)   49.5(5)

Takeaway:

Thus far with only three games played, we are a 9th place team in conference relative to every other team in conference. The trend in nearly every Valpo metric shown is downward.

Adjusted Efficiency Margin In Conference Only (Teams sorted alphabetically)
(AdjOE minus AdjDE) = How Pomeroy ranks all teams from best to worst, in this case only within conference.
Bradley         +11.3(1)
Drake            -  0.4(7)
Evansville      - 17.1(10)
Illinois St.      -   4.9(8)
Indiana St.         0.0(6)
Loyola           +   2.1(5)
Missouri St.   +   6.8(2)
No. Iowa       +   3.6(4)
So. Illinois     +   6.5(3)
Valpo            -    6.7(9)

Bradley 1
Miz. St. 2
So. Ill.  3

Takeway:

In just the first three games, the best conference team is Bradley followed by Missouri State, the preseason favorite by coaches, etc., to win the conference. Valpo, based upon its performance in just three games is in 9th place. (Ouch, that's I think, where we were predicted to be by preseason rankings by coaches, etc.) But it is what it is.
Just three games does not a trend make and it's noisy; however, this is where things stand with respect to how the teams are playing in conference. Compare the conference numbers to the season numbers to get a good idea how far off each team is from their to-date season performance. The team is probably going to end up closer to the season number rankings so when there are only three games played, there will be some noise and variability in the final conference rankings. Pomeroy rankings are one of the best ways to determine which teams are the best, but it takes some time. The numbers are a reflection of box scores which reflect the reality of how the teams perform, taking into consideration the team's strength of schedule. At the year's end, you will find Pomeroy's final numbers closely reflect the teams which make the tournament in the order that they are seeded. And more important (for me anyway), the final rankings often end being better than what the odds-makers say will happen for purposes of picking winners. KenPom has the highest win/loss% prediction success of NCAA tournament games than any other ranking system out there. He beats Sagarin, RPI, BPI, NET, Nolan, and the rest. So the numbers, while certainly not perfect, give an objective, fact-based idea of how good a team is relative to all other teams at any point in time. Of course there will be upsets and teams which play poorly from time to time, but the longer the season goes on, those numbers don't lie when it comes to picking which team is better.

Note, I really try and make sure the actual KenPom numbers are accurate. Any incorrect number you find, please let me know.

[Just Sayin]

The latest date represents cumulative totals since conference games began on 12/30/19. These rankings are based solely upon In-Conference Competition
                                                       Best Offensive Teams In-Conference           Best Defensive Teams in Conference

1/8/20                                                              1. Drake                                                       1. So. Ill.
                                                                          2. N. Iowa                                                     2. Miz. St.
                                                                          3. Bradley                                                     3. Bradley
                                                                          4. Ind. St.                                                     4. Loyola
                                                                          5. Miz. St.                                                     5. Ill. St.
                                                                          6. Loyola                                                       6. Valpo
                                                                          7. Ill. St.                                                       7.  N. Iowa
                                                                          8. Valpo                                                        8. Ind. St.
                                                                          9. So. Ill                                                        9. Evansville
                                                                        10. Evansville                                                 10. Drake

Bradley looks interesting to me at this time. Not much mismatch between offense and defense. Perhaps the most balanced team in conference thus far. That might portend for them being a contender for the best team in conference by season's end. Who knows?

[Just Sayin]

All Numbers and (Rank) are In-Conference Only For Valpo
The latest date represents cumulative totals since conference games began on 12/30/19.
2020         Efficiency                            Offense                           Defense
Date    AdjOE      AdjDE    3%        2%       FT%       EFG%        3%         2%        
1/1       91.2(8)   95.6(4)   33.3(8) 51.6(6)   66.7(4)    50.9(6)     35.7(6)   45.7(3)
1/4      100.3(5)  101.0(5)  39.6(2) 46.5(8)   83.3(1)    52.0(4)     35.9(5)   50.0(4)
1/8        93.1(8)    99.8(6)  34.6(6) 43.8(10) 65.6(8)    47.3(10)   40.0(8)   49.5(5)
1/11      93.5(7)    96.7(6)  33.9(4) 42.0(10) 75.0(2)    46.0(9)     32.0(4)   55.3(10)


Adjusted Efficiency Margin In Conference Only (Teams sorted alphabetically)
(AdjOE minus AdjDE) = How Pomeroy ranks all teams from best to worst, in this case only within conference.
Bradley         +15.7(1)
Drake            -  2.2(5,6)
Evansville      - 25.9(10)
Illinois St.      -   8.4(9)
Indiana St.    +   4.9(4)
Loyola           + 14.8(2)
Missouri St.    -   3.9(8)
No. Iowa        + 11.6(3)
So. Illinois      -    2.2(5,6)
Valpo             -    3.2(7)

Bradley 1
Loyola 2
N. Iowa 3
We've only played 22% of the total conference game thus far.


The latest date represents cumulative totals since conference games began on 12/30/19. These rankings are based solely upon In-Conference Competition
                                                       Best Offensive Teams In-Conference           Best Defensive Teams in Conference

1/11/20                                                            1. N. Iowa                                             1. Loyola
                                                                          2. Bradley                                             2. Bradley
                                                                          3. Loyola                                               3. So. Illinois
                                                                          4. Drake                                                4. Valpo
                                                                          5. Ind. St.                                             5. Ind. St.
                                                                          6. Miz. St.                                             6. Illinois St.
                                                                          7. Valpo                                                7.  N. Iowa
                                                                          8. Illinois St.                                          8. Mizz. St.
                                                                          9. So. Illinois                                         9. Drake
                                                                        10. Evansville                                         10. Evansville

Bradley looks interesting to me at this time moving from 3rd to 2nd place. Not much mismatch between offense and defense. Perhaps the most balanced team in conference thus far.  Indiana State is the 2nd most balanced team to date.
Valpo moved from 8th to seventh in offense and 6th to 4th in defense. How can this happen when Drake shot so well (70.3% for 2Pt%)? We shot way better than them in FT% adding 15 points more than Drake's FTs.  Also, these rankings are relative to how every other team in conference does.

[talksalot]

Speaking of Bradley... shooting for an early dinner at Kenny's across the street from the Civic Center on Wednesday the 29th... 6pm tip off.  anyone on the board interested in sharing a table pre-game?