Lottich's Contract

[oklahomamick]

Maybe I'm being too negative.

Received a text from fellow Valpo almuni who tried to talk me out of being negative about the program.  A current student who signed a letter of intent to play basketball at Oklahoma and another current student who is top 20 by Rivals and committed to Kansas both said that 9-8 in MVC is a good step. 

My response is our basketball program is used to being better than .500.  As a coach at the youth level (totally different I know) I would be replaced after a couple years of those kind of stats. 

[NativeCheesehead]

I am moving more and more into optimistic for the future, but reserving full optimism until the transfer list is out.

[elephtheria47]

This teams seems much more in sync than the past couple of seasons. Id be surprised by transfers as noone really screams transfer scenario to me. IF JFL would like to transfer, again IF, itd make sense at this point of his eligibility to graduate in 3 and then grad transfer without sitting out a year. Certainly Fazekas and Gordon helped us, so it'll be interesting to see if we pursue any other "transfer down" options.

I do think last nights game showed us a look at ML improvement in coaching, and how we smoked em without JFL. Future seems optimistic but also at the same point, this is year 3 of not really doing much. At some point in time this will be the new normal and we'll be stuck in mediocrity. Gotta be top of league next few years to keep the recruits interested in keeping us as an option.

[vu72]

This teams seems much more in sync than the past couple of seasons. Id be surprised by transfers as noone really screams transfer scenario to me. IF JFL would like to transfer, again IF, itd make sense at this point of his eligibility to graduate in 3 and then grad transfer without sitting out a year. Certainly Fazekas and Gordon helped us, so it'll be interesting to see if we pursue any other "transfer down" options.

I do think last nights game showed us a look at ML improvement in coaching, and how we smoked em without JFL. Future seems optimistic but also at the same point, this is year 3 of not really doing much. At some point in time this will be the new normal and we'll be stuck in mediocrity. Gotta be top of league next few years to keep the recruits interested in keeping us as an option.

Wait till you get a look at Jacob Ognacevic, coming in next year. 6'8" 220#, shoots the 3 at a 50% clip.  He is the leading scorer in the State of Wisconsin. The future looks very bright.

[elephtheria47]

Right. I have friends who live in Sheboygan. I understand the hype and agree Jacob is going to be a good one. What I meant is, the longer you are the coach, the less you are able to say "we're building something here." At some point in time, the recruits are going to want to see the results on the floor and I think ML will be crossing that threshold this coming summer or next summer.  Either you're building something or not and the more we have success on the court, the easier his job recruiting will be. I hope in two months from now ML will be hitting the recruiting trail saying he just coached the MVC tourney champs and got Valpo back in the big dance. I am a proponent of giving him a 4 year extension, just need the results on the court to start coming in better and I do believe we are on that track.

[VUGrad1314]

We are 1 game above .500! What tourney you plan on going too?  They don't have the Vegas 8 anymore. I'm happy the team is getting better, and they are better that's not debatable.  I'm excited that we are going in the right direction too. But really there is only one direction from 10th place two years ago.  And that's 9th place.....Looks like we will finish better than both of those this year. UNK hired a proven coach not learning on the job, he won a couple league titles early in his tenure and before you know it hes promoted to coaching at Cincinnati.  We hired a 3rd assistant and took 3 years to finish 6th at best. I'm about being patient.  Let's finish the year out before deciding anything.  Win a game In The tournament and I think Matt should get two more years for this project. What I do like is the players stayed out of trouble and enjoy each other while loving their coach.  That goes a long way.  They are graduating and like the coach.

Your last sentence coupled with the improvement is precisely why Matt should be extended. The improvement is the most important thing because on court results matter but the fact that these players like playing for Coach Lottich and continue to fight for them is huge. They fought hard for him even through the lack of results to make it so that the results would finally come. That is a testament to Matt and what he is building and creating and he deserves to be rewarded. I am firmly pro-extension now and the result of Saturday's game has no bearing on that especially with JFL likely out. If we win and finish in the top 6 it removes any doubt equivocation or argument though I don't see much of a debate now and I have been very skeptical and critical of Lottich in the past. But the players like him and the results are starting to show. That's enough for me. Also the tournament I am referring to is the CIT\CBI. It's a perfect program building tournament as we continue to find our way in the MVC with a freshman\sophomore laden team. If we get an invite we should accept and play. Consider it an investment in the long-term fortunes of the program. We could benefit from the extra practices and game experience. Loyola did it and then two years later they were in the Final 4. I think that tournament experience helped them grow into the team they would become. It can be the same for us. We should accept an invite to the CBI or CIT if we are invited. Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

As for Brannen, his NKU teams struggled against the top of the conference and pounded on the lower teams of the HL. Those teams would be about where we are in the MVC at best. You can look at the gaudy KenPom numbers we put up while we were in the HL but KenPom like any metric rewards winning most and it's easy to pile up wins against sub 250 programs and have a big fat number. There's a reason there are several MVC teams ranked ahead of the HL There's a reason there are several A10 teams ranked before the MVC. Those conferences are deeper and better and losses don't hurt your metrics as much even when you take a bunch of them because the quality of the league is higher. Could\would Brannen have won in the MVC? Maybe but his Norse teams would have struggled with the grind that is the MVC season. Of that I have no doubt.

[Just Sayin]

We are 1 game above .500! What tourney you plan on going too?  They don't have the Vegas 8 anymore. I'm happy the team is getting better, and they are better that's not debatable.  I'm excited that we are going in the right direction too. But really there is only one direction from 10th place two years ago.  And that's 9th place.....Looks like we will finish better than both of those this year. UNK hired a proven coach not learning on the job, he won a couple league titles early in his tenure and before you know it hes promoted to coaching at Cincinnati.  We hired a 3rd assistant and took 3 years to finish 6th at best. I'm about being patient.  Let's finish the year out before deciding anything.  Win a game In The tournament and I think Matt should get two more years for this project. What I do like is the players stayed out of trouble and enjoy each other while loving their coach.  That goes a long way.  They are graduating and like the coach.

Your last sentence coupled with the improvement is precisely why Matt should be extended. The improvement is the most important thing because on court results matter but the fact that these players like playing for Coach Lottich and continue to fight for them is huge. They fought hard for him even through the lack of results to make it so that the results would finally come. That is a testament to Matt and what he is building and creating and he deserves to be rewarded. I am firmly pro-extension now and the result of Saturday's game has no bearing on that especially with JFL likely out. If we win and finish in the top 6 it removes any doubt equivocation or argument though I don't see much of a debate now and I have been very skeptical and critical of Lottich in the past. But the players like him and the results are starting to show. That's enough for me. Also the tournament I am referring to is the CIT\CBI. It's a perfect program building tournament as we continue to find our way in the MVC with a freshman\sophomore laden team. If we get an invite we should accept and play. Consider it an investment in the long-term fortunes of the program. We could benefit from the extra practices and game experience. Loyola did it and then two years later they were in the Final 4. I think that tournament experience helped them grow into the team they would become. It can be the same for us. We should accept an invite to the CBI or CIT if we are invited. Go Valpo! I BELIEVE! As for Brannen, his NKU teams struggled against the top of the conference and pounded on the lower teams of the HL. Those teams would be about where we are in the MVC at best. You can look at the gaudy KenPom numbers we put up while we were in the HL but KenPom like any metric rewards winning most and it's easy to pile up wins against sub 250 programs and have a big fat number. There's a reason there are several MVC teams ranked ahead of the HL There's a reason there are several A10 teams ranked before the MVC. Those conferences are deeper and better and losses don't hurt your metrics as much even when you take a bunch of them because the quality of the league is higher. Could\would Brannen have won in the MVC? Maybe but his Norse teams would have struggled with the grind that is the MVC season. Of that I have no doubt.

Incorrect. Kenpom's rankings are soley by Adjusted Efficiency Margin and do not take winning into account.

AdjEM is the difference between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency. It's simple subtraction. Even your dog can do it. It represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions and it has the advantage of being a linear measure. The difference between +31 and +28 is the same as the difference between +4 and +1. It's three points per 100 possessions which is much easier to interpret. This measure also makes the SOS and average conference strength numbers less mysterious. Ken Pomeroy

[EddieCabot]

Incorrect. Kenpom's rankings are soley by Adjusted Efficiency Margin and do not take winning into account.

Thanks for pointing this out.  There are multiple rating/ranking systems that measure different things (ie. achievement vs predictive).  Before criticizing a given metric, it would be nice if you had even an elementary understanding of the metric you were criticizing. #TheMoreYouKnow

[4throwfan]

Listened to the March to the Arch podcast on the drive in this morning.  They briefly discussed Lottich and the good job that he has done this year, relative to where the program was last spring.  I agree to that extent.  Will be nice to see his ability to build on the accomplishments so far.

[valpotx]

I am going to go the other direction versus this topic's original intent.  If we win at ISUb, how many folks vote for Lottich tied to Coach of the Year??  He would get my vote, after all of our key roster turnover

[FieldGoodie05]

I am going to go the other direction versus this topic's original intent.  If we win at ISUb, how many folks vote for Lottich tied to Coach of the Year??  He would get my vote, after all of our key roster turnover

Someone listened to the March to the Arch Podcast!

[valpotx]

Actually, I did not lol

[VUBBFan]

I am going to go the other direction versus this topic's original intent.  If we win at ISUb, how many folks vote for Lottich tied to Coach of the Year??  He would get my vote, after all of our key roster turnover

Someone listened to the March to the Arch Podcast!

Actually it seems there are quite a few Valpo fans that do. Not saying hundreds or even close, but they do a good job covering the whole Valley Basketball scene.

[VUGrad1314]

He'd be in the conversation for sure but it would be hard not to give it to Mullins because they were in worse shape than we were coming into the year.

[GoldenCrusader87]

Couple of wins down the stretch and a 500-record = a Coach Of the Year?

Lol I can't even ....

[FieldGoodie05]

Couple of wins down the stretch and a 500-record = a Coach Of the Year?

Lol I can't even ....

If there was a most improved . . . . maybe

[Valpower]

Couple of wins down the stretch and a 500-record = a Coach Of the Year?

Lol I can't even ....

If there was a most improved . . . . maybe

Do we even know what the criteria is and who votes (sorry, I don't pay too much attention to this stuff)? Shouldn't it always be the coach for the team with the most wins? Because giving it to a coach that appears to exceed expectations is really just an award for some people having guessed wrong.  Even giving it for regular-season performance seems short-sighted cause sometimes teams peak later.  I hate awards. 

[GoldenCrusader87]

The only coach in the MVC with a team that has an at-large possibility ... with a 24-5 record overall ... is certainly more deserving that ML. Sorry.

Maybe next year with as good as JFL and Clay are ... and Krikke ... with a senior group of Gordon, Nick, Mileek, and I think Zion?

But this year ... we barely hold the keys to our own destiny with staying out of a Thursday game in St Louis yet alone coach of the year???

[GoldenCrusader87]

After shooting abnormally well from 3 the last few games and the overreactions regarding ML being the ischemia of the year .... are we going to overreact after the loss? Or just blame it on injuries? Free throw disparity? Just not being our day? What's the excuse now?

[usc4valpo]

ML is doing better but he is not worthy of a 5 year extension. Maybe 2 or 3. Valpo is still around .500, so we need to get real. I also doubt that colleges readily available to hire him.

[GoldenCrusader87]

Has it always been a Valpo "thing" to make excuses for the coach/team? Honestly asking - not trying to be a jerk. It's not a bad thing if that's the case as it would show loyalty and optimism ... dedication, you know?

But it would help me better contextualize the unwavering support for ML and company. Does that make sense?

[VUGrad1314]

Ultimately it's as simple as this (and it's what turned me to becoming more supportive and less overtly negative even in the face of less than flattering data which has improved since then let's be real): He's here until he's not and while he's here he's the man tasked with leading the team we love so we might as well get behind him. Negativity doesn't do anyone or anything any good since nothing is going to change until the end of next year at the absolute earliest so why contribute to it? Regardless of what happened regardless of our thoughts feelings lamentations and protestations on the matter he probably isn't getting fired\bought out anyway. And now, as good fortune (for him and perhaps even for us as well) would have it he has shown enough that we should consider giving him a little more time to show what he's building and what he can do. He only just got his first MVC roster the players like him they fight hard for him and the future looks really bright and the late season returns look good this game notwithstanding. Again (granted their first years were with Wichita State in the league) but Loyola finished .500 for the first time in YEAR 5. We did it in Year 3. There's an argument to be made--whether it's a good one is in the eye of the listener\reader\beholder-- that we're ahead in terms of program development of a team that went to the Final 4 in our MVC transition. That is reason for optimism and reason to give Lottich a few more years and see what exactly we have in him once and for all. We'll know in 2-3 years beyond any shadow of a doubt whether he's an ascending coach or needs more time and should go the Porter Moser route and learn some more under a more seasoned coach. But right now he deserves a chance to lead the men he has recruited and see what results they can bring. Go Valpo! I BELIEVE!

[NativeCheesehead]

I'm open to whatever but I will say this. If he's Thursday night next year he has to go. Any contract that doesn't allow that to happen is unacceptable.

[VUGrad1314]

I'm open to whatever but I will say this. If he's Thursday night next year he has to go. Any contract that doesn't allow that to happen is unacceptable.

I can totally get behind this. Next year's team has to be able to finish in the top six. We should sign him to an extension that voids AUTOMATICALLY if we end up in the PIG next year. I think that's a very fair deal for what we've been shown (though it might hurt recruiting which is a huge risk). Sadly what's fair and what's right may not necessarily be what is prudent because another coaching change and rebuild might doom this program for decades.

[PlumStreetBum]

I could have lived with a .500 season if we'd avoided the PIG. It's disappointing but hard to be really angry, though, because Evansville sh!t the bed so hard. Everyone got an extra road win, which devalues a .500 record in a tough conference.

If we avoid major transfers, we could be a top 4 team next year. The off-season transfer market will be Lottich's toughest test yet.