Coronavirus

[Just Sayin]

https://twitter.com/NJ_Joel/status/1231567911241666562

[justducky]

I haven't visited the off topic section in months pretty much because I have judged it to be devoid of any intelligent life.   This virus and its results does deserve our comment and reflection.

Yesterday I attended a wake consisting largely of folks who are 6o to 80+. So a high risk group of longest term friends, relatives and associates exchanges handshakes, kisses and hugs without cautions. With the mortality rates still uncertain could an infection among us lead to elevated deaths and a midwest panic? Don't answer yet.

How much did the fear factor depress our late season attendance? How many will cancel the trip to St Louis because of the unknowns? This question is everywhere and effecting everything with no place to hide.

Bigger picture-bigger problems.  Wall St is in panic. A global bond bubble is about to explode. I can not define financial safety let alone find it. If you have any of it stockpiled in your basement could you share it with the rest of us?

I have been an active investor for over 50 years and I have never been more panicked. Chairman Powell has no clue. The world central bankers are even dumber than he is. Trump still thinks negative interest rates can save us or rather him. This is more a financial than a health risk and I see no logical answers or reassurances.  Given that the planet would be better off with a greatly reduced human population should I jump out of the window now or let the virus do its work? Should I try to land on Just Saying so we can take our differences to a private place? Any and all comments are welcome!

[Just Sayin]

This too shall pass.  It would be stupid to sell any investments during this panic season.

You are welcome.

[vu72]

I haven't visited the off topic section in months pretty much because I have judged it to be devoid of any intelligent life.   This virus and its results does deserve our comment and reflection.

Yesterday I attended a wake consisting largely of folks who are 6o to 80+. So a high risk group of longest term friends, relatives and associates exchanges handshakes, kisses and hugs without cautions. With the mortality rates still uncertain could an infection among us lead to elevated deaths and a midwest panic? Don't answer yet.

How much did the fear factor depress our late season attendance? How many will cancel the trip to St Louis because of the unknowns? This question is everywhere and effecting everything with no place to hide.

Bigger picture-bigger problems.  Wall St is in panic. A global bond bubble is about to explode. I can not define financial safety let alone find it. If you have any of it stockpiled in your basement could you share it with the rest of us?

I have been an active investor for over 50 years and I have never been more panicked. Chairman Powell has no clue. The world central bankers are even dumber than he is. Trump still thinks negative interest rates can save us or rather him. This is more a financial than a health risk and I see no logical answers or reassurances.  Given that the planet would be better off with a greatly reduced human population should I jump out of the window now or let the virus do its work? Should I try to land on Just Saying so we can take our differences to a private place? Any and all comments are welcome!

So I'm a Certified Financial Planner, so I, have the answer!  Probably not... I will say that the investment choices are very limited.  If you want yield you can get 1.02 in the 10 year Treasury.
So that leaves us equities.  So where do you look?  Europe?  Nope. Asia?  Nope.  Get the picture?  The US market may end up being the best looking horse at the glue factory--but it may be the only choice. 

I tell clients all the time that I have no idea when a correction will happen or what will make it happen--but it WILL happen. If you've been investing for 50 years you've made it through Black Monday, 1987-- down 22.6% IN ONE DAY! (this would be the equivalent of a one day drop today of about 6500 points on the Dow) Or the financial crisis of 2008, when the market was down 30%+ for the year.  Stuff happens.

So here's a plan--don't try to time the market, it doesn't work.  As long as you are continuing to invest (still working), just keep investing.  It's called dollar cost averaging.  When the market comes back, and I have no idea when--but it will--you will be just fine.  May take a few years but people will still use technology, eat stuff, buy cars and go to basketball tournaments. 

It just might take a while.  Be calm and let God!

[Just Sayin]

S&P500 up 4.22% TODAY
YTD: Down just under 3%.
Buy from the scared, sell to the greedy.
Rebalance strategy: Scale in and out of the S&P 500 every 10% move one way or the other.
Asset allocation: 50% S&P Index Fund/50% Bond Index Fund

Quack quack.

[justducky]

S&P500 up 4.22% TODAY
YTD: Down just under 3%.
Buy from the scared, sell to the greedy.
Rebalance strategy: Scale in and out of the S&P 500 every 10% move one way or the other.
Asset allocation: 50% S&P Index Fund/50% Bond Index Fund

Quack quack.

I don't think you and 72 got my point. I still own stocks with an expanded cash liquidity position. I'm even back to using option volatility to grow positions and income. It is the 39 year old bond bubble that will create our next financial armageddon!   Nothing about 1/2 point rate cuts to .9% 10 year treasuries with accompanying trillion
dollar deficits can be looked at as normal. We are pumping cheap gasoline on an aging full employment economy in an attempt to further delay a slowdown. This totally uncharted water. I don't know how this will unravel I just know that it will.

Seriously if any of you have some vision of how we ever get back to normal then please share it. I just don't see it happening without some brutal pain.

Hey the Trumpeter has one great idea. We SHOULD refinance every nickel we can at 30 year rates. That is a fantastic idea. I wouldn't buy or own any of it but that is the whole point of this debate.

[vu72]

Hey the Trumpeter has one great idea. We SHOULD refinance every nickel we can at 30 year rates. That is a fantastic idea.  I wouldn't buy or own any of it but that is the whole point of this debate.

Un-chartered to be sure.  Perhaps we should borrow $500 Billion at next to nothing and use the money to rebuild stuff.  I have never seen such continued volatility in the stock market.  Deficits are what makes this so troubling.  We have a full employment economy and are running trillions of dollars in debt.  When I studied economics at Valpo a hundred years ago, I was told that huge deficits cause two things--higher taxes and/or runaway inflation. But financially how do you prepare?  This gets back to un-chartered.  Stay the course, be consistent and take the Warren Buffet approach.  If it is a good company and you liked it at $10 per share, you should love it at $5.

[justducky]

Perhaps we should borrow $500 Billion at next to nothing and use the money to rebuild stuff.

Borrow now but bigger, engineer all of it and open it for bids only when the recession is in progress. That could soften the blow considerably.

Deficits are what makes this so troubling.  We have a full employment economy and are running trillions of dollars in debt.  When I studied economics at Valpo a hundred years ago, I was told that huge deficits cause two things--higher taxes and/or runaway inflation. But financially how do you prepare? 

This morning I dug out my well worn 1962 copyrighted Managerial Finance text for Finance 301 or 305 or whatever it was. But the Present value of an annuity table in the back is timeless because simple mathematics remains simple mathematics. Long story short anyone who buys long term debt at sub 2% rates loses their ass when the Kudlow fantasy of vanishing deficits is disproven, thus popping the bond bubble, thus triggering US debt to be priced as a credit risk (5 to 10%  ) Messy business! Economic fallout everywhere. And the only republican plan for that eventuality is to blame everything on the dems. 

But financially how do you prepare? 

Banking was so over regulated last time around that their risks are now minimal. Strange combo that has lost me additional money short term but banks and the silver ETF is where I am adding. In 50 + years I have never taken a position in gold but very soon I might pull the trigger.

[justducky]

Another day of red ink everywhere. Blood on the streets and much of it mine! Just sold a juicy premium out of the money bank put on a position I would like to grow. Nothing like a good selling panic to heighten the senses. Sell, sell, sell or buy, buy, buy who cares because you can't take it with you.

Yes---- I realize I am a sick man. 

Where are my blood pressure pills? I better take the whole bottle.

[vu72]

Another day of red ink everywhere. Blood on the streets and much of it mine! Just sold a juicy premium out of the money bank put on a position I would like to grow. Nothing like a good selling panic to heighten the senses. Sell, sell, sell or buy, buy, buy who cares because you can't take it with you.

Yes---- I realize I am a sick man. 

Where are my blood pressure pills? I better take the whole bottle.

LOL! up down up down up down--is that the stock market or sex?   

[justducky]

A quote from Jody Lawrence (commodity adviser) concerning the Coronavirus:
"My plan is to stay at home and sample my emergency beer and bourbon stockpile until we get the all clear!"    Good idea. I better get down to the liquor store and beef up my supply.

[justducky]

More coronavirus red ink. Its hard to find a market bottom when no one yet understands the extent of the problem.

This morning Joe Terranova sp? on CNBC speculated that the fed should try to stem the government bond yield decline by selling the 10 year instead of buying. Sting the market and remind folks that owning safe debt can cost you money.  The goal being to avoid the unknown of negative rates.  Maybe more later but back to Bradley-SIU.

[crusader05]

My spouse's company has already lost 5 million in expected revenue due to conference and other hotel cancellations (they work in hotel management) and the expectation is it's just going to get worse and will lead to at the very least furloughs if not direct lay offs. 

[justducky]

My spouse's company has already lost 5 million in expected revenue due to conference and other hotel cancellations (they work in hotel management) and the expectation is it's just going to get worse and will lead to at the very least furloughs if not direct lay offs. 

I participated in a banquet fundraiser earlier in the week with excellent weather. We may have been 10% short in attendance with no other logical explanation. Attendance decline for the Valley tournament was similarly virus related. I am not easily scared but I am worried. In fact everybody is worried.

[Just Sayin]

Buy from the scared. Scale in, not just one buy today. Save some dry powder. Scale in every 10% move.  This is fun.
This is a great buying opportunity for the S&P Index Fund which is down 15% YTD.
Buy with what you say? Always keep 50% in a bond index fund which can be used to buy during times like these. Load em up incrementally. Opportunities are available when the market goes down or up.

Sell too the greedy later after the market begins to be overbought. Scale out every 10% move.

Rinse and repeat.

[justducky]

Buy from the scared. Scale in, not just one buy today. Save some dry powder. Scale in every 10% move.  This is fun.

This is a great buying opportunity for the S&P Index Fund which is down 15% YTD.

Handpicking stock sectors or companies would be better (my opinion).

Always keep 50% in a bond index fund which can be used to buy during times like these.

If anybody has 50% in bonds then they are braver than me. This is where the next bust will happen. We have a 39 year bull market in bonds, a global bond bubble, spreading negative interest rates, trillion dollar current deficits (growing), little monetary stimulus availability, and a growing demand for an enormous fiscal spending program. So we need a fiscal stimulus at the same time as we have 3.5% unemployment? Uh--- have any of you recently bid local construction projects? Don't be surprised if they come in 40 to 50% above budgets and expectations. Is anybody worried about inflation instead of deflation? I'm worried about both.

Somehow very soon interest rates will suddenly bolt up as people start to realize that lending governments money with no real return is a fools bet. When that happens all existing intermediate to long term bonds will discount those newer higher rates by selling off as much as 20 to 60% depending on the issuer, the maturity, and where rates stabilize.

Bonds scare me more than stocks, more than housing, more than real estate and more than gold or silver. If I lose my shirt on these convictions then oh well---it wouldn't be the first time. 

[Just Sayin]

Buy from the scared. Scale in, not just one buy today. Save some dry powder. Scale in every 10% move.  This is fun. This is a great buying opportunity for the S&P Index Fund which is down 15% YTD. Buy with what you say? Always keep 50% in a bond index fund which can be used to buy during times like these. Load em up incrementally. Opportunities are available when the market goes down or up. Sell too the greedy later after the market begins to be overbought. Scale out every 10% move. Rinse and repeat.

Buy from the scared. Scale in, not just one buy today. Save some dry powder. Scale in every 10% move.  This is fun.

This is a great buying opportunity for the S&P Index Fund which is down 15% YTD.

Handpicking stock sectors or companies would be better (my opinion).

Always keep 50% in a bond index fund which can be used to buy during times like these.

If anybody has 50% in bonds then they are braver than me. This is where the next bust will happen. We have a 39 year bull market in bonds, a global bond bubble, spreading negative interest rates, trillion dollar current deficits (growing), little monetary stimulus availability, and a growing demand for an enormous fiscal spending program. So we need a fiscal stimulus at the same time as we have 3.5% unemployment? Uh--- have any of you recently bid local construction projects? Don't be surprised if they come in 40 to 50% above budgets and expectations. Is anybody worried about inflation instead of deflation? I'm worried about both. Somehow very soon interest rates will suddenly bolt up as people start to realize that lending governments money with no real return is a fools bet. When that happens all existing intermediate to long term bonds will discount those newer higher rates by selling off as much as 20 to 60% depending on the issuer, the maturity, and where rates stabilize. Bonds scare me more than stocks, more than housing, more than real estate and more than gold or silver. If I lose my shirt on these convictions then oh well---it wouldn't be the first time. 

Handpicking stocks is riskier and more costly (transaction costs)  than investing in a low-cost index fund of the S&P 500. The stock market is a zero-sum game and for every winner there is a loser. Picking a limited amount of stocks often does not pay off as one would think. Nothing more frustrating owning the best quality stocks while the S&P goes up and those prime stock stagnate or go down. You can't beat the market consistently over the long haul. Transaction costs eat you up. No so with S&P Index Fund where you can transfer in and out cost-free.


One of the nice things about a bond index fund is that it is diversified. And when the market goes down, investors flock to safety in bonds, which raises their prices. So in a situation like what we are experiencing now, my bond fund is appreciating and I can buy more stocks at much lower prices. When the market turns around, I lock in the gains and buy back the bonds with profit. Doing this only when the market moves 10% one way or the other gives me a long-horizon way to time the market and benefit whether it goes up or down.


But I am a recovering day trader, worse than a recovering alcoholic.

[Just Sayin]

How various allocations of stock and bond portfolios have performed:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-portfolio-allocations

My 50/50 allocation has done better than these averages because I time the market at 10% moves in either direction. It grows substantially more over time than just buy and hold or rebalance once a year to get back to the 50/50 allocation.

[justducky]

One of the nice things about a bond index fund is that it is diversified. And when the market goes down, investors flock to safety in bonds, which raises their prices.

In my take the global bond bubble bursts as deflation is replaced by higher coupon interest rates and infla-fla-fla-flation. Been so long since we've worried about that word that I can barely pronounce it. Meanwhile bonds will remain safe until suddenly they aren't safe and folks and funds carrying long maturity debt will be handed their heads. Like I said-- Trump should sell long term government bonds now to anybody who is willing to buy--particularly if they are Chinese.

But I am a recovering day trader, worse than a recovering alcoholic.

Agreed  and we have some common ground. I got out of options because I couldn't fully control my speculative bent. So I worked my tail off doing it only to have my buy and hold accounts consistently outperform. Unfortunately I have reentered the options market but with a bit better discipline.

How various allocations of stock and bond portfolios have performed:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-portfolio-allocations

Caveat to all newcomers: That when too many people start doing things the same way the tendency is for it to no longer work. Worded differently---Just as soon as you find the key to success some SOB will change the lock! I think the lock to success in bond investing has already been changed.

[Just Sayin]

Caveat to all newcomers: That when too many people start doing things the same way the tendency is for it to no longer work. Worded differently---Just as soon as you find the key to success some SOB will change the lock! I think the lock to success in bond investing has already been changed.

The market will go where it will go. I just follow it. High beta individual stocks typically rise more than the market, but not always. High beta individual stocks in technology will drop significantly more than the market. I choose to cling closely to Mr.  Market. Less risk, reasonable return. Don't have to wait longer to recover from bad stock picking choices. Everyone makes those. It's a fool's errand to think one is smarter than the market. Strategies to protect one's portfolio in highly volatile markets so that one can beat Mr. Market only serve to make brokers rich and investors poor. Even if a very large percentage of investors invested in index funds, there would still be huge bets from speculators driving prices up and down. I just go where Mr. Market goes and save a ton of transaction dough and in the long run end up beating 90% of the geniuses out there who try and outfox the other geniuses who make them pay the transaction costs which sets them back behind Mr. Market.

And when bond prices drop, holding on to bonds provide superior returns from interest assuming you have a plan to reinvest in them - when they go down - with profits made on the stock market appreciation. Thus the 10% move strategy further buys bonds at lower prices and later sells them when the stock market tanks and investors flee to safety in bonds thus driving bond prices back up. Always buying low and selling high in both bonds and stocks. And stay away from risky junk bonds.

My strategy lets me sleep at night and provides opportunities when the market goes up  or down. That's why I sleep like a baby during this downturn and act according to my plan. I am not worried one bit about my portfolio right now. The market could go down another 20% and I'm licking my chops for yet another opportunity to make money.

[Just Sayin]

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[FWalum]

The Lutheran Basketball Association of America has cancelled its national tournament due to concerns of bringing middle school teams from all over the country to the Valparaiso University campus. I just received this news late this evening.

[valpopal]

As I mentioned in previous posts to another thread, Valpo has been in the midst of making a series of difficult choices this week. The first decision I can report because it has now been made public is that the university is immediately suspending its overseas programs and recalling all students to the US.

[Just Sayin]

Updated Indiana cases:

https://www.in.gov/isdh/28470.htm?utm_source=agency-website&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=&utm_term=&utm_content=

[crusader05]

43 tests given seems ridiculously low