Game #2 @ UIC 6:00 PM ESPN3 WVUR 95.1

[bbtds]

What are you talking about? Yes... fans are right to be concerned... because Valpo may be entering a down stretch the likes of which Valpo bball hasnt experienced in my lifetime, anyway. Please explain how that is inconsistent?

One is concern, one is an over reaction that the program is going downhill for a stretch of many seasons. I didn't think in anyway that this season was over and done after the UIC loss. It was a horrible display but I'm sure we have the talent to snap back this season. We have gone through this almost every season (this is like my 13th or 14th season on this board) when some newcomer to the board over reacts to a loss. Who was it last season? Come on. Come out and admit your panic from last season.

[NativeCheesehead]

I'll freely admit to being one of the biggest over reactors within game threads. And usually I wake up the next day and find some optimism. And let's be honest, the season is already a wash in many ways. We have no idea how many games will be played and no one is losing a year of eligibility. In theory, this is a year for us to ignore the W/L record and focus on the development of what is a very young team. But it's not hard to see, especially this year, how the last few seasons have lead us to skew more toward frustration and defeatism than the usual optimism of the Drew(s) years.

For example, I see Clay and Krikke as stars in the making who are very close to breaking out in a big way. Then I wonder where they'll finish their careers. It's a cycle we're caught in, and something has to give. I've put this in visual form since I have nothing better to do today. 

[AlaskaCrusader19]

The lack of offensive structure is concerning. They could get away with it because Javon Freeman-Liberty was so good at penetrating and finding open shooters, but this team has nothing on offense. When is the last time Lottich called a set play with a clear end goal? I'm not sure this team shoots well enough to rely on constant three-point attempts. Frustrating!

[vu72]

Just looks at the season stats and, are you ready for this?  WE SUCK!

Our starting backcourt have taken a COMBINED, ZERO FREE THROWS!

Our uber athletic Mr. Edwards is 1 for 10 from the 3.  The team is shooting 24% from the 3 and that seems like our total offense. Even Sigurd can't buy one.

Worse yet is our free throw shooting.  Now at 54% through two games.

We're being out rebounded by 7 per game.

Make no mistake, UIC is a really good team.  We, are not.

[M]

Hopefully the next few social media posts by our guys will be them hitting numerous consecutive three points/free throws instead of dunks.

[JBC1824]

Bbtds, I'm sure you're a nice, intelligent guy, being a Valpo grad and all. However, I hate your take on this bball team, and your take on my take.

Your assertion makes no sense. None. You have arbitrarily quantified my statements associated concern levels, deciding that the two differ. Im telling you they dont. Fans are right to be concerned... because Valpo may be entering a major down stretch. These two ideas are completely compatible and consistent with one another.

Again, it is not just this UIC loss that has me thinking so pessimistically about our team's future. Its our horrible athletics facilities, overall performance in the MVC since we joined, the loss of tradition and notoriety of the Drews, etc.

What makes you sure we have the talent to "snap back?" I dont believe outside observers would characterize our current roster as "talented" in very many relevant contexts.

And your self-reverance for your lengthy posting history here is a bit much. The logic you're espousing would suggest that if I had happened to make my way to this forum 13 or 14 years ago, as you had, then my opinion about the current state of the program would be more valid somehow. I was watching the team back then; why would it matter if I had a lengthy posting history or not -- as if having one magically bestows some type of wisdom...

[VU2014]

Interesting comment from Donovan's Dad. And some truth. We may need more guys to play supporting roles in an offense rather than whatever that was on Tuesday night. Most of the offense came from individual performances rather than the flow of an offense.

The best "Chief" we have is Clay obviously. Not everything needs to run through him but we need to more guys playing supporting roles rather than making plays by themselves.

UIC is better than people think but I'd argue we have more talent but we didn't play as team!! Whatever that was was awful.

How much did this team get to practice in the offseason and between the Vandy game. Because it literally looked they didn't practice and had no cohesion.

https://twitter.com/dexterclay1977/status/1334143789695447042?s=21

[oklahomamick]

We haven't had shooters on the roster for a long time now

[valpo64]

IU shoots 24% and gets beat by 22.  Does that tell you anything?  Yes, a bad game.  Relax.  There is a lot of season left.  We badly need a point guard who can also score.  Maybe one will evolve.  Other than Krikke no one has stepped up to fill the void of losing your 2 top point producers from last year.  No doubt...a work in progress.

[bbtds]

Bbtds, I'm sure you're a nice, intelligent guy, being a Valpo grad and all. However, I hate your take on this bball team, and your take on my take.

Your assertion makes no sense. None. You have arbitrarily quantified my statements associated concern levels, deciding that the two differ. Im telling you they dont. Fans are right to be concerned... because Valpo may be entering a major down stretch. These two ideas are completely compatible and consistent with one another.

Again, it is not just this UIC loss that has me thinking so pessimistically about our team's future. Its our horrible athletics facilities, overall performance in the MVC since we joined, the loss of tradition and notoriety of the Drews, etc.

What makes you sure we have the talent to "snap back?" I dont believe outside observers would characterize our current roster as "talented" in very many relevant contexts.

And your self-reverance for your lengthy posting history here is a bit much. The logic you're espousing would suggest that if I had happened to make my way to this forum 13 or 14 years ago, as you had, then my opinion about the current state of the program would be more valid somehow. I was watching the team back then; why would it matter if I had a lengthy posting history or not -- as if having one magically bestows some type of wisdom...

All I can say is you will see. This program is not as bad as you make it out to be.

[valpotx]

My earlier point on multiple bids, was specific to the overall athletic program while in the MVC, versus what was possible in the HL.  Men's Basketball (not as much recently), Women's Basketball, Volleyball, Baseball, and Software, often receive multiple bids.  While Basketball is the breadwinner for Valpo, we didn't make the move solely for the sport.  If you want to compete with schools like IPFW, IUPUI, and Robert Morris, more power to you.  If you want to work at a company that is content at $100m, more power to you.  I have more ambition than such a thing, and I know that a lot of other former Valpo athletes would say the exact same thing, that we are even more proud to be able to say that our school competes in the MVC, versus the Mid-Con or HL.

[VUGrad1314]

I totally agree Valpotx but I'm getting restless and impatient... When are we going to win something--anything--that shows that we belong with our new institutional peers? We're in year four now and it doesn't feel like we're any better than we were in year one and that goes for a lot of programs, not just men's basketball. We've seen growth in women's basketball and volleyball had a pretty good year a year or two ago but aside from that what do we have to show the MVC that they made the right choice taking us besides that nice run in St Louis? I'm glad we're here in the MVC but I am getting a little bit tired of seeing us not compete terribly well against this new league.

[justducky]

Bbtds, I'm sure you're a nice, intelligent guy, being a Valpo grad and all.

I wouldn't jump to any rash conclusions until you've read all 5957 of his previous posts. 

We haven't had shooters on the roster for a long time now

Our team 3 point shooting wasn't bad last year compared to the year before but we were still low when compared to our Valley competition and some of our Peters and Broekhoff teams. Specifically Fazekas shot 49.5%, Gordon 42%, Kiser 36.6% and 2 of those 3 have graduated.

As the assigned roles for each team member sort out I see nothing in the 3 point shooting forms for Edwards (1 of 10), Clay (2 of 10) and Robinson that should automatically hold them under 30% and Krikke, McMillan and Sackey should return to their 32-to 34% 2019-20 ranges. Despite starting 1-8 I don't think Im sticking my neck out too far by expecting Lorange to finish near 40% for the season. Even with those players meeting my shooting expectations our dribble penetration limitations may hamstring our results. Matt has considerable work to do to get this figured out.

[AlaskaCrusader19]

Absolutely moving to the MVC was the right move. It's certainly a huge jump in competition, but the Horizon League was limited in what it could do for VU. With the MVC, television money is much better and the school gets more exposure. Exposure is especially significant given the decline in enrollment at VU.

[VUGrad1314]

The increased exposure isn't going to matter much if we don't figure it out soon though...

[valpolaw]

Aside from the brief good run at arch madness last year, it has been hard being a valpo fan in the Lottich era. It always comes back to "trust the process" and "work in progress". It is very tiring and frustrating.

[AlaskaCrusader19]

While the jump in competition from the Horizon to Valley has been significant, I do wonder about some of the recruiting decisions. Lots of reliance on transfers...

[JBC1824]

We're stuck relying on transfers because we struggle to recruit talented enough kids out of high school. We're then left digging through the transfer scrap heap, searching for players who showed promise in high school but have failed to realize it at the collegiate level. I believe this has added to our roster discordance; the parts just dont seem to fit. Or maybe it simply feels that way because we seem so bad right now.

Friday is going to be brutal.

[VU2014]

While the jump in competition from the Horizon to Valley has been significant, I do wonder about some of the recruiting decisions. Lots of reliance on transfers...

The Valley is certainly a step up but the best AP and Broekhoff teams could compete and be very successful in the Valley.

Particularly Rowdy's senior year and AP's JR and SR (if the team had better luck with injuries that year and Jubril didn't get suspended). Mind you AP's senior year was Lottich's first year as head coach and gifted/coached by Bryce. It was actually a good start to the season that fizzled out due to health and an extremely awful HL tourney 1st game bounce out.

I do wonder if Lottich is the guy. He can recruit and is an A+ character person but does he have the coaching chops. In the Drew Era we didn't always have the best talent (certainly had some years of strong talent) but they were always well coached teams and guys new their roles.

I hate to be so down this early in the season and us complaining literally won't change anything unless you have a Massive check and are ready to put your mouth is. Lottich isn't going anywhere.

Reason to remain positive about a season turnaround at some point:
-lack of practice time with this team due to previous covid restrictions in the offseason hampered this young teams growth. Ideally with time, practice and more games they hopefully get better.
-on paper a decent roster with some players with high upside

Reason to remain pessimistic:
-read the forum thread. Not going to be redundant at this point.

[FWalum]

Wow, the Northern Iowa fans should all be jumping off a cliff based on our reactions and their 0-3 start, after being picked to win the league and be an at-large candidate. 

We're stuck relying on transfers because we struggle to recruit talented enough kids out of high school. We're then left digging through the transfer scrap heap, searching for players who showed promise in high school but have failed to realize it at the collegiate level. I believe this has added to our roster discordance; the parts just dont seem to fit. Or maybe it simply feels that way because we seem so bad right now.

Really not sure where this take is coming from.  What transfers have we "relied on"? Sure, some of them have been solid contributors, Shane Hammink, Ryan Fazekas, Bakari Evelyn, and maybe Marcus Golder, but most if not all of our "relied on" talent have been recruited from high school.  I expect both the 2019 and 2020 classes to produce several major contributors.

[Pgmado]

Valpo's best players by class
2024: Sheldon Edwards (too early to tell, but he is in starting lineup for a reason)
2023: Donovan Clay
2022: Javon Freeman-Liberty (originally), Daniel Sackey
2021: Mileek McMillan
2020: Ryan Fazekas (transfer)
2019: Derrik Smits
2018: Tevonn Walker
2017: Alec Peters
2016: Vashil Fernandez/Keith Carter (transfer) - there's a debate here depending on what you're looking for
2015: NA
2014: Lavonte Dority (transfer)
2013: Ryan Broekhoff
2012: Brandon Wood (transfer, originally)
2011: Cory Johnson (transfer)
2010: Brandon McPherson
2009: Urule Igbavboa/Jake Diebler
2008: Shawn Huff

So that's five transfers at best that have been the best player in their class in the last 17 years, and most of them under Homer/Bryce. Yes, Lottich stocked team full of transfers when he first took over, but he has clearly moved away from that model.

Transfers on the roster by year
2020-21: 4
2019-20: 4
2018-19: 6
2017-18: 4
2016-17: 4
2015-16: 5
2014-15: 6
2013-14: 7
2012-13: 7
2011-12: 4
2010-11: 2
2009-10: 3
2008-09: 1 (2 if you count Beas Hamga)
2007-08: 1

[JBC1824]

We may simply define what it means for a team to "rely" on a player differently. To me, a team comes to "rely" on a player when they've become a consistent rotation piece. We may have to agree to disagree because of this.

However, I don't feel as though you're giving some of Valpo's recent transfers enough credit in terms of the role they've played in determining their teams' success, or lackthereof.

Fazekas, when healthy, was perhaps Valpo's second best player both last season and the season prior to that.

Marcus Golder and Bakari Evelyn were both top five in scoring and minutes played from 2017 through 2019.

For 2017-18, Valpo planned to "rely" most heavily on transfer Joe Burton before he flunked out of school.

Hammink was unquestionably the Crusaders second best player during 2016-17.

Keith Carter was the second best player in 2015-2016. I recall too well how that team flamed out in the NIT final after Carter went down with an injury. Darien Walker was a starter that season and was top five in scoring.

The previous season Darion Walker was our second leading scorer.

Then, the season prior to that Lavonte Dority was the best player, leading the way in terms of minutes played, points, assists, etc.

I'm not going to reach back any further into the annals of Valpo bball history because I dont think doing so would be useful. Im not very interested in what happened 15 years ago one way or the other.

So we may have to leave it at that, but I dont think its entirely reasonable to dismiss an individual as not being "relied" upon by his team unless he's its best player -- a position you seem to have taken.

-----------------------------------------------

Lottich has clearly moved away from that model? Again, with that "model" being the reliance upon transfers? I don't think I'm understanding this correctly.

Lottich took over for 2016-17, when he had four transfers on the roster. He has not had less than four transfers on the roster in any of the subsequent seasons...

[valpo95]

As an observation, although posters here have different opinions, we should all be thankful that the debates on this forum tend to be respectful. The fact that individuals are doing this by presenting data and facts is commendable.

The other observation is that transfers have an outsized impact for mid-majors such as VU. The Power 5 schools always have a ton of talent - the second string at Purdue or another Big 10 program would start (or surely get more minutes) if they transferred to the MVC; the first string at a school like Valpo might or might not start for the Big 10 and probably do not get more minutes, at least right away. Naturally the details of this depend on the individual player and the school, yet I'm speaking in broad terms. For example, Brandon Wood averaged 11 minutes at SIU, 31 minutes over two years at VU, then got 27 minutes at MSU. David Skara averaged 19 minutes over two years at VU, then 19 and 31 minutes in his final two seasons at Clemson - these are probably the best two players to transfer from VU in recent memory that have at least a season in the books after VU.

That talent differential is what makes it much tougher for the mid-majors to unexpectedly lose a key player either to transfer or injury. There just is not as much talent available that can step in as a replacement.   

[valpo64]

We're stuck on relying on transfers?  Who and what prompted that comment?

[Chairback]

I would say every NCAA basketball program relies on transfers.  No matter what conference.  I can't think of a program that doesn't.   It's a part of the game now and we have luckily benefited from it (and been hurt by it) with some amazing transfers.