Arch Madness

[JD24]

Further to the Duke situation is does it affect the entire ACC tournament get shut down as it potentially could affect the NCAA tournaments Covid protocol's.

Could end up being a bigger story than simply a team which shouldn't be in the tournament being eliminated in an unexpected way.

[usc4valpo]

I think Drake is in no matter what. Two Valley teams imply a bit more money for Valpo, and the beloved adminstration can declare how successful this basketball program is.

Yes, sarcasm galore. Valpo needs to step up in the MVC.

[wh]

I think Drake is in no matter what. Two Valley teams imply a bit more money for Valpo, and the beloved adminstration can declare how successful this basketball program is.

Yes, sarcasm galore. Valpo needs to step up in the MVC.

I agree that whether Drake does or does not get in doesn't change Valpo's standing. We are who we are either way, and it's up to us to elevate our standing. It may enhance the league's overall reputation, however, which could provide a residual recruiting benefit to Valpo. There is one caveat. If the same programs dominate the conference year after year (e.g., Creighton and Wichita State), there is no residual benefit to the other 8 teams. In fact, IMO recruiting top players could be made even worse under that scenario. Put another way, why would top mid major level recruits consider programs that seem to be mired in mediocrity?

[Just Sayin]

Just saw this:

Looks like Duke's season is over. You have to feel for those kids who looked poised to perhaps go on a run. It helps Drake on the bubble but man you don't want to see help come in that way.

https://twitter.com/BracketguyDave/status/1370031706456133635?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1370031706456133635%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcsnbbs.com%2Fthread-918432.html

Height of idiocy.

[vu84v2]

Duke could still play in the 16-team NIT in Dallas-Fort Worth (said with heavy sarcasm).

[vu84v2]

My view on Drake is simple. Sure it gains some small degree of additional prestige for the conference, but this is very little unless Drake (or Loyola) goes on a run (and, of course, Drake needs to be in the tourney to have any possibility at a run). The big issue here is NCAA tourney money to Valpo. My guess is that each share will be less than 2019 due to little in-person attendance and lost revenue from 2020, so getting 2X becomes important for the program and the athletics department to maintain financial stability. Loyola winning a game would be even better (though if they are an 8 or 9 seed I do not see them winning more than one game).

[VUGrad1314]

Remember: First four games count for shares too if I'm not mistaken. As for Loyola, if I had to pick an 8\9 seed to upset a 1, I'd be very tempted to go with them. That team is GOOD. Really really really good.

[VUGrad1314]

Lunardi said that the Michigan State-Maryland loser could move to Last 4 in And Michigan State lost that game by double digits Also Syracuse lost today so they likely will not climb up the bubble much. All of these things should help Drake at least a little I think. Because of how mids get treated on Selection Sunday I'm not going to pop bottles until it's official. But developments so far have been very positive. Drake even climbed from 47 to 45 in the NET rating. 

[crusadermoe]

Loyola does seem to have the right pieces for a win or three.  Seniors Krutwig and Williamson were there for the Final Four.  And of course they play great defense with good offensive spacing.

Will see. Getting to the 16 or the elite 8 would be huge money for the MVC. You wonder if the single site takes March Madness down a notch.  Probably not.  I always liked to factor in the location when I filled brackets.

[valpo95]

My view on Drake is simple. Sure it gains some small degree of additional prestige for the conference, but this is very little unless Drake (or Loyola) goes on a run (and, of course, Drake needs to be in the tourney to have any possibility at a run). The big issue here is NCAA tourney money to Valpo. My guess is that each share will be less than 2019 due to little in-person attendance and lost revenue from 2020, so getting 2X becomes important for the program and the athletics department to maintain financial stability. Loyola winning a game would be even better (though if they are an 8 or 9 seed I do not see them winning more than one game).

In round numbers, every NCAA share is worth about $280K to the conference over the upcoming six years. The $280K is based on 2019 (historically the amount per share also goes up by about 3% per year.)  So, if Drake gets in, it will be $280K * 6 years = $1.7M more to the MVC.  Divide that by 10 conference members, and it is about more $170K to Valpo spread out over six years.

Yes, a share is awarded for being in the "first four" games as well, so making the field of 68 is what counts.

Each additional win is also worth a share, up until the Final Four (no additional shares are awarded for wins in the semi-finals or final).

[JD24]

Loyola does seem to have the right pieces for a win or three.  Seniors Krutwig and Williamson were there for the Final Four.  And of course they play great defense with good offensive spacing. Will see. Getting to the 16 or the elite 8 would be huge money for the MVC. You wonder if the single site takes March Madness down a notch.  Probably not.  I always liked to factor in the location when I filled brackets.

It's a matchup thing. Krutwig is such an unusual player for these times that he can be a pain in the ass to anyone under the basket.

[VUGrad1314]

UCLA loses to Oregon State 83-79

Boise State loses to Nevada 89-82

Virginia Tech loses to North Carolina 81-73

Wisconsin hangs on to defeat Penn State 75-74

All of these teams were right around Drake in the NET so Drake should get a nice bump up.

Not so good outcomes:

Kansas State loses to Baylor (not unexpected)

Ole Miss looks like they're going to beat South Carolina (again not unexpected)

Georgia Tech beats Miami (not unexpected)

Overall I think this is another very good night for Drake and their bubble candidacy. They should jump again in the NET tonight which should only help them in the eyes of the committee. Again don't celebrate until it's official but this has been very encouraging.

[justducky]

The BPI is highly respected because it measures just about everything. I just now took my first look at their numbers.

Good news, Loyola sits at 18!  Very bad news, Drake is miles behind at 63.        Saggarin was worse.    

[VUGrad1314]

The BPI is highly respected because it measures just about everything. I just now took my first look at their numbers. Good news, Loyola sits at 18!  Very bad news, Drake is miles behind at 63.        Saggarin was worse.    

It's their schedule. Ourside of Loyola and maybe Missouri State they didn't beat anybody of note and they have two pretty bad losses and two losses to a good team by double digits. Not a good recipe for metrics and further proving that who you play still matters.

[VUGrad1314]

Drake got some more help today. Their NET numbers may climb with Missouri's loss. Colorado State and Utah State are in a bubble vs bubble matchup. Cincinnati popped SMU's bubble 74-71 and Georgetown popped Seton Hall's bubble 66-58. If LSU can put away Ole Miss and UCF can come back and beat Memphis that's even more help. Something to watch for: Now Oregon State and Georgetown are in the finals of their respective tournaments. This is bad as they could steal autobids which pushes the at larges all down a peg. We need those teams to lose in their finals. Drake's chances keep looking better but even with several very fortunate bubble developments they haven't moved much which is concerning to me. If you asked me now I'd say I like their chances as things stand but that can certainly change.

LSU defeats Ole Miss 76-73!

Close game between UCF and Memphis. Come on Knights!

Potential bid thief Nevada is trailing San Diego State right now. That result needs to hold.

Go Creighton and the USC\Colorado winner tomorrow!

[VUGrad1314]

San Diego State 77 Nevada 70 Potential bid thief is gone.

Unfortunately Memphis did prevail over UCF 70-62. All told, another good night for Drake but I still don't feel confident yet. Tomorrow's results will be telling.

Creighton and the USC-Colorado winner have to win  and the runs of Memphis and Cincinnati need to end tomorrow in the AAC semis. San Diego State beating the USU-CSU winner helps though I think both teams would be in as whoever wins that USU-CSU game picks up another Q1 win I believe. As does St Bonaventure beating VCU though I think both of those teams are pretty safely in. Like I said this has been another good night but we can't have bid thieves as the margin is still very thin.

[JD24]

Georgetown gets the Big East auto which will steal one from the bubble teams. Memphis played Houston to the wire which could play in their favor. Drake is in a tenuous situation right now.

[VUGrad1314]

Georgetown gets the Big East auto which will steal one from the bubble teams. Memphis played Houston to the wire which could play in their favor. Drake is in a tenuous situation right now.

Nope on Memphis.


Q1 wins: Drake 1 Memphis 0  Q2 wins: Drake 5 Memphis 4 Overall Q1-2 record: Memphis 4-7 Drake 6-2 Q3 losses Drake 2 Memphis 1. NET rating going in to today: Drake 43 Memphis 52. If the committee is being fair with their metrics Drake should still hold the edge over Memphis Unless SOS bites Drake: Drake 201 Memphis 75 Once again I reiterate WHO YOU PLAY STILL MATTERS. In many respects Drake despite its sparkling record and strong record in the top two quadrants is in a mess of their own making by playing absolutely no one of substance outside of conference. All their best wins are in conference which is never good for a mid major. Once again for the schedulemakers: The thesis that the best thing you can do is play a bunch of bad teams and drub them is WHOLLY INCORRECT. If that were true then why does the Quadrant system exist and why is the margin of victory bonus capped at 10? Because if these things weren't in place every team would just do that and it would destroy competitive balance in the sport more than it's already been destroyed naturally. As a conference we either need to recruit some outside help to bolster our ranks or get serious as a collective about scheduling preferably both.

[VUGrad1314]

Drake gets two favorable results with Utah State losing to San Diego State 68-57 and Houston holding on against Memphis 76-74. The Georgetown dismantling of Creighton hurts but I don't know if it's fatal. Lunardi has them holding steady where they were when play began today (second of the last four in). Their former conference mates (Creighton and Wichita State) really did them dirty. We can't have any more bid thieves. Colorado needs to win tonight and Houston needs to beat Cincinnati tomorrow. St Bonaventure beating VCU tomorrow would also be good I think but I think VCU is probably pretty safely in at this point with their NET of 35 and their 9 wins in Q1-2 including a sterling 7-0 in Q2. They have 2 Q3 losses like Drake but those are balanced by 2 Q1 wins. I'd have to believe they're in regardless but we never know until the committee is done meeting. By far the two most important games to be watching are Colorado vs Oregon State tonight and the AAC final tomorrow Houston and Cincinnati. We can't have Oregon State (NET 97 which is worse than Missouri State) or Cincinnati (who is only like two spots ahead of ISUb at 119) stealing autobids.

[VUGrad1314]

For the record both Palm and Lunardi still have Drake in their respective fields. Palm has Drake as the last team in and Lunardi has Drake as the third to last team in. We need chalk to continue to hold through the Selection show. Go Colorado! Go Bonnies! and Go Houston!

[VUGrad1314]

Georgia Tech is in. I don't think that changes anything. I think they were probably going to get in anyway. Early returns from the PAC 12 championship are not great as Oregon State is out to an early lead.

[VUGrad1314]

Colorado down by 5 at half... I'm starting to get nervous...

Down 8 now...

Drake WHY did you have to play such a crappy schedule to make this even a debate? Why don't mids care enough about doing what they can to make themselves worthy of bids. Why are we not colluding to send our best against the best of other similar conferences to boost the metrics of all involved? Why are so many mids content with being mediocre\one bid leagues? We can do it There just has to be an appetite for it.

[VUGrad1314]

Why do I even bother rooting for mid majors? All it causes is consternation and heartbreak every single year and the worst part is most of them couldn't possibly care less about being anything more than mediocre and are content to just take whatever crumbs they are given instead of fighting for themselves. So why should we keep fighting for them? What's the point?

[VUGrad1314]

It's over... Too much bid thievery... Drake is screwed  and we're a one bid league again... I hate this so much...  Why did the absolute worst possible night have to happen right before the selection show? All that hope... Gone... All gone... Welcome to the hardest one bid league in the nation... That's where we are now... And it's all Drake's fault with their crappy BS schedule of no substance. WE NEED TO SCHEDULE BETTER or I just wish the MVC would just tell me it doesn't care about being a multibid league anymore so I don't have to care anymore either and can just be happy with whatever we get... Hopefully I'll feel better when I wake up tomorrow but I'm sure it's just going to sting again when Drake is left out just like every other mid every year... 

[valpotx]

Settle down, and let's just see what happens.  You cannot realistically be criticizing the scheduling during a COVID year?