Valpo at UNI Jan 5 @ 8pm

humbleopinion · January 05, 2022, 07:18:55 AM

Throw out records from the season so far. Throw out expectations of matchups.

UNI is better than its record, and this game will be a major challenge for the Beacons. Kithier and Woodyard may be back, but who else will have tested positive by game time. Who will UNI put on the floor? At least it seems the game will be played.

Those of us in the Chicago media market can watch the game on the NBC sports channel, otherwise ESPN+ will cover the game.

wh · January 05, 2022, 07:25:52 AM

UNI men's basketball showing improvement as MVC play begins
Austin Phyfe's status remains day-to-day
Cole Bair
Jan. 4, 2022 5:11 pm

https://www.thegazette.com/panther-basketball/uni-mens-basketball-showing-improvement-as-mvc-play-begins/

Just Sayin · January 05, 2022, 09:00:40 AM

UNI is heavily favored over Valpo. (KenPom has NI as 8-pt favorite with 77% probablity of winning) I just finished an experimental Four Factors Model, tweeked to include some metrics other than the FFs. It's based on the numbers to date of all 358 teams. Independent variable = Win%. Gonna test it on some games for a few days to see if it makes the cut for the NCAA tournament bracket entry.

Interesting that it shows Valpo an ever-so-slight favorite against NI. Athough one of the metrics added had a p-value of way over .05. Just the numbers baby.

crusader05 · January 05, 2022, 09:05:03 AM

It's hard to make predictions anymore since who knows which players from which team will actually be playing. I think we have a chance to win this game but i'm worried that our poor three point defense may hurt us this game. Illinois State got plenty of shots off and we can't keep hoping our opponents miss those.

Just Sayin · January 05, 2022, 09:10:11 AM

Matchup Stats:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/matchup/beacons-panthers-2022-01-05/stats

usc4valpo · January 05, 2022, 10:56:24 AM

I hope the Beacers have a good time at the Waterloo truck stop

Valpo89 · January 05, 2022, 11:21:47 AM

The team flew on a charter yesterday.

wh · January 05, 2022, 01:03:56 PM

Humbleopinion pointed out that UNI is better than their record indicates. I don't know enough about their injury/eligibility situation to say. I do know about ours, however:

0-3 1st 3 games of the season without Ben and Kobe
4-2 next 6 games with Ben, but not Kobe
4-1 last 5 games with Ben and Kobe (our only loss was by 1 point after leading all the way)

I can easily envision a 12-2 record right now instead of 8-6 with a full complement of key players been from the beginning. Of course, we're not 12-2, but I expect a 12-2 favored-to-win type performance tonight, not an 8-6 gee I hope we can stay with them, little engine that couldn't persona.

Chairback · January 05, 2022, 01:16:44 PM

If we rebound, defend the 3, and have TK back we will be ok.

I'm expecting a good game. I'd put Kobe on AJ Green.

IndyEIT777 · January 05, 2022, 01:42:04 PM

Quote from: Chairback on January 05, 2022, 01:16:44 PM
If we rebound, defend the 3, and have TK back we will be ok.

I'm expecting a good game. I'd put Kobe on AJ Green.

We have rebound and defend the 3 significantly better than the ISU game or we will get blown out of the water. UNI may be the team we match up with worst in the league so we need to have a near flawless game. We also need to peep doing a good job holding onto the ball and keep making our free throws.

I frankly do not expect us to win this game. To really get hyped about this team, we need to win a game here and there than we're not expected to win as well as not lose games you should win. A win tonight would at least to me go a long way to showing me this team is heading in the right direction getting into league play.

Just Sayin · January 05, 2022, 01:54:31 PM

Quote from: usc4valpo on January 05, 2022, 10:56:24 AM
I hope the Beacers have a good time at the Waterloo truck stop

Do you drink throughout the day?

usc4valpo · January 05, 2022, 05:12:53 PM

No, why do you ask? You guys need to lighten up a little. Waterloo, IA is not exactly paradise.

justducky · January 05, 2022, 06:15:33 PM

Quote from: Chairback on January 05, 2022, 01:16:44 PMI'm expecting a good game. I'd put Kobe on AJ Green.

Edwards, Gordon, King, Anderson everybody may get a shot! Any chance we will play some zone and if so what will it be?

Quote from: wh on January 05, 2022, 01:03:56 PMI expect a 12-2 favored-to-win type performance tonight, not an 8-6 gee I hope we can stay with them, little engine that couldn't persona.

My thoughts exactly. All else being equal Matt must have a plan and a backup plan to keep us in the game with a chance or likelihood of winning. If not the dump Lottich movement will quickly regroup and wh and I might this time be leading it!

tjjvalpo · January 05, 2022, 06:42:08 PM

To compete for a top 4 seed in the valley, we need to win 3 or 4 road games. Not sure if this is one of them, but I hope it is.

AB · January 05, 2022, 07:45:36 PM

Not a favorable matchup and we have won once in the last 30 years there. UNI lost at home to some very athletic teams, Nicholls State (put up 90 on Purdue). Valpo needs to shore up the interior defense. Look for Panthers to exploit that. Birds missed many bunnies Sunday

mj · January 05, 2022, 08:12:40 PM

A poor start for the Beacons. Doesn't help that Northern Iowa is on fire..

mj · January 05, 2022, 08:22:30 PM

Quote from: wh on January 05, 2022, 01:03:56 PMI expect a 12-2 favored-to-win type performance tonight, not an 8-6 gee I hope we can stay with them, little engine that couldn't persona.

Well the 8-6 team showed up tonight.

NativeCheesehead · January 05, 2022, 08:30:26 PM

Any competent coach can shut down the Lottich offense. It's been the same story every year.

mj · January 05, 2022, 08:32:46 PM

Simply unacceptable. Make them take a Greyhound home.

valpotx · January 05, 2022, 08:35:18 PM

Up to the 6 minute mark of the first half, this is the absolute worst effort and lack of concentration that I have ever seen from a Valpo team. Absolute crap passing, dumb mistakes in traveling or running into a trap without an escape, terrible switches on D, etc. I don't care about missed shots. It is the other BS that has us down 19.

nkvu · January 05, 2022, 08:36:14 PM

Now we know just how bad we can be and it's everybody.

Chairback · January 05, 2022, 08:36:32 PM

It's a free for all out there. No game plan at all.

When the announcer says "disjointed" you know it's bad.

AJ Green hasn't even started to light it up yet.

VUSERF · January 05, 2022, 08:37:13 PM

Not even mad about this one. Just numb to Loser Lottich-ball.

mj · January 05, 2022, 08:45:37 PM

We're wearing a trash bag looking uniform and we're playing like trash. Coincidence?

IndyEIT777 · January 05, 2022, 08:45:59 PM

How did this team win 8 games?!?! I wasn't going to jynx it earlier, but with how well we had been with not turning it over combined with UNI not being amazing at takeaways screamed a huge turnover game for Valpo. Who is seriously going to defend Lottich after this game? This team looks beyond unprepared and out of their depth in this one. No excuse!