12/3/11, 1:00pm: Butler Game Thread

[valpopal]

Vegas has Butler favored by 5 points. But I am going with my heart instead of my head, and I will predict a Valpo win at Hinkle:

Valpo   74
Butler  71

[wh]

Looks like all of us are going to see Boggs play this season (second half).  Lazerus article in today's Post says Bryce thinks we may not see Fernandez or Jakolis all yer so he needs to bring Ben Boggs in even though he would prefer to red shirt him.  One of the obvious reason is what IrishDawg said.  It will make for yet another guy graduating next year.  However, Boggs could be the guy who can put us over the top THIS year.
now
What ever Butler is adding next year we will match. We could have a two year run to the NCAAs.  Tomorrow's game will tell us if we are in that category.  We need to show our stuff in a hostile environment and at a big rival.

Here's the link to the Lazerus article:  http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/9186965-556/drew-awaiting-word-from-ncaa-clearinghouse.html

We will still have 22 games left (plus more if we win the 1st game in the HL tournamnent) when Ben becomes eligible.  There is every reason to pull the trigger now instead of waiting till next year.  Let's worry about 2 years from now 2 years from now.     

[wh]

Vegas has Butler favored by 5 points. But I am going with my heart instead of my head, and I will predict a Valpo win at Hinkle:

Valpo   74
Butler  71

Butler has not covered in any game this season.

[wh]

Butler has not been impressive at all this year:
- They have not beaten anyone with a winning record.
- The 4 teams they have beaten have a combined 8-16 record.
- They have yet to cover in any game. 
- 5 of their 7 games have been at home.  Their record might be even worse if they had a more typical HL early season schedule heavy with road games.
- They have people left over from their great teams of the past 2 years, but to date haven't shown that they are anywhere close to the level of those teams.
- They have had some horrible FT shooting games.
- Their offense looks stagnant and mechanical.
- The only guy that looks impressive is Hopkins.  That said, there are occasions where he also looks out of control - and he turns the ball over a lot.
-  There is no evidence to support that they are ready to have a breakout game.   

Valpo by 8.

[covufan]

Butler has not been impressive at all this year:
- They have not beaten anyone with a winning record.
- The 4 teams they have beaten have a combined 8-16 record.
- They have yet to cover in any game. 
- 5 of their 7 games have been at home.  Their record might be even worse if they had a more typical HL early season schedule heavy with road games.
- They have people left over from their great teams of the past 2 years, but to date haven't shown that they are anywhere close to the level of those teams.
- They have had some horrible FT shooting games.
- Their offense looks stagnant and mechanical.
- The only guy that looks impressive is Hopkins.  That said, there are occasions where he also looks out of control - and he turns the ball over a lot.
-  There is no evidence to support that they are ready to have a breakout game.   

Valpo by 8.

If memory serves, Butler lost three in a row in HL play, and were 5-5 in HL standings, when they ran off 14 straight, until the NCAA final game.  Not saying that will happen this year.  I think we have our best shot at a win in Hinkle in many years, and Butler will have some problems this season.  I also think that Stevens will get things going soon enough, and Butler will have a say in who wins the HL this year. 

The more I look at this game, I agree with your assessment and will look forward to a VU win!

[zvillehaze]

Butler has not been impressive at all this year:
- They have not beaten anyone with a winning record.
- The 4 teams they have beaten have a combined 8-16 record.
- They have yet to cover in any game. 
- 5 of their 7 games have been at home.  Their record might be even worse if they had a more typical HL early season schedule heavy with road games.
- They have people left over from their great teams of the past 2 years, but to date haven't shown that they are anywhere close to the level of those teams.
- They have had some horrible FT shooting games.
- Their offense looks stagnant and mechanical.
- The only guy that looks impressive is Hopkins.  That said, there are occasions where he also looks out of control - and he turns the ball over a lot.
-  There is no evidence to support that they are ready to have a breakout game.   

Valpo by 8.

I wish I could make a valid argument against your prediction, but I don't have one.  I think Butler has the talent and coaching to turn things around, but I don't know when that will happen.  I certainly don't know if it will happen on Saturday. 

Safe travels to any of the Valpo faithful making the trip. 

[VUfan]

Play hard like We are at home,  go to the Basket hard and keep the pressure on Butler, We win !
YU 71 Bu 65

[sectionee]

Brent took a few minutes and did a preview for tomorrow's game.  Take look! See you there! http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2011/12/horizon-league-opener.html

[wh]

Irish Dawg's preview.  He knows our players' strengths and weaknesses as well as we do.  How is that possible? 

This will not be an easy game as much as I'd like it to be.  Butler is still learning early on this season.  This (and Ball State I believe) will be a good test to figure out what kind of team the Dawgs have and how far away they are from being a contender in the Horizon League.  So here it is, Preview #8.

Starters:

Erik Buggs – 5'11, 155 lbs JR averaging 5.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.1 apg – This guy is the team's defensive stopper, plain and simple.  Very quick, but not a great ball handler.  Stopping his penetration into the lane will be key to stopping his offensive game, as he's only shot three 3 pointers the entire season.

Will Bogan – 6'1, 170 lbs JR averaging – 7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2 apg – Unlike Buggs, he is NOT afraid to pull the trigger from deep, as 68% of his FG attempts are from behind the 3 point line.  He's a pretty athletic guard who played at Ole Miss before transferring to Valpo, but it's taking him some time to find his way into the offense.  Solid defender as well.

Matt Kenney – 6'4, 205 lbs JR averaging 8.1 ppg, 5 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.7 spg – Remember Little for Valpo the last couple of seasons?  Kenney has pretty much replaced his role in that regard as the do a little bit of everything player for the Crusaders. Strong and defends well.  Not a great outside shooter, but isn't afraid to pull the trigger from there.

Ryan Broekhoff – 6'7, 215 lbs JR averaging 14.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.3 bpg - He hasn't been the deadeye from 3 that he has been in years past (29% from 3), but that still doesn't mean that I want to leaving him wide open on the perimeter because he can still be dangerous if you leave him open.  Stevens has a ton of respect for him, so I'm sure he's telling the team that the 3 guys you've got to absolutely be up on, on the perimeter is Harris, Broekhoff and Bogan.


Kevin Van Wijk – 6'8, 230 lbs JR averaging 14.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg - This has probably been the surprise of the Horizon League.  I know I certainly wasn't expecting this from Van Wijk, but he has been a great addition in the middle for the Crusaders.  Very physical, isn't afraid to go up against bigger defenders, and defends pretty well without fouling.  The matchup between him and Smith is going to be a key one tomorrow afternoon.




Others:



Jay Harris – 6'2, 155 lbs SO averaging 12.3 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 3 apg, 1.3 spg - He might be coming off the bench, but he will get starters minutes.  He is one heck of a shooter, especially in his one trip to Hinkle last season.  Solid ball handler as well.  He's expanded is game inside the arc as well, but he still has taken over half his shots from outside the arc.  Can't leave him open for shots.


Richie Edwards – 6'7, 220 lbs JR averaging 11.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.5 apg - His stats are a little skewed since he's only played in 4 games so far this season and the majority of his points came against Holy Cross and Georgia Southern, but he is a very versatile 4 as you would expect in the Horizon League and isn't afraid of pulling the trigger from deep, though he hasn't had a ton of luck from there this year.


Hrvoje Vucic – 7'1, 245 lbs SO averaging 3.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg - He is a big body, but he has been a bit of a liability on offense and if you get him away from the basket, he becomes far less valuable.  He could be valuable in the next couple seasons, but for now he will get a few minutes to help spell Van Wijk and focus on getting rebounds.


Tommy Kurth – 6'1, 180 lbs SO averaging 2.7 ppg, 1 rpg - He is a point guard in almost every sense when he is out on the floor, but has not played well statistically this season.  He hasn't shot well from 3, but as he shot 36% from there last season, I'd hate to be the reason he suddenly broke out of his slump.
I know I can certainly hope and cheer for a win tomorrow, but Valpo is far more experienced at almost every single position, and this early in the season, that will play a factor.  The second matchup might actually go in Butler's favor, but I feel like that unless Butler can start running the offense well and get some easy baskets, it's just going to be a struggle to score again, and I expect to see Smith look overwhelmed as soon as he sees a double team coming at him.  If he can play well and help out Hopkins and Marshall, then I think Butler's chances improve greatly.  If not, could be another long afternoon for the offense.

I certainly expect a close one until the end, but I don't see Butler pulling this one out.

Valpo 64, Butler 56

[mp91]

Butler Game Preview:


http://www.beyond-the-arc.com/

[valpopal]

Valpo is favored? No, Butler is favored by 5 points. Citizen Kane "is just decent at best"? No, it is one of the finest movies of all time. Other than those errors, not a bad preview. 

[wh]

Indy Star game day article:

http://www.indystar.com/article/20111203/SPORTS0605/112030342/Butler-s-best-path-NCAAs-begins-today

[milanmiracle]

Looks like all of us are going to see Boggs play this season (second half).  Lazerus article in today's Post says Bryce thinks we may not see Fernandez or Jakolis all yer so he needs to bring Ben Boggs in even though he would prefer to red shirt him.  One of the obvious reason is what IrishDawg said.  It will make for yet another guy graduating next year.  However, Boggs could be the guy who can put us over the top THIS year.
now
What ever Butler is adding next year we will match. We could have a two year run to the NCAAs.  Tomorrow's game will tell us if we are in that category.  We need to show our stuff in a hostile environment and at a big rival.

Here's the link to the Lazerus article:  http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/9186965-556/drew-awaiting-word-from-ncaa-clearinghouse.html

We will still have 22 games left (plus more if we win the 1st game in the HL tournamnent) when Ben becomes eligible.  There is every reason to pull the trigger now instead of waiting till next year.  Let's worry about 2 years from now 2 years from now.     

I think bringing in Boggs is a good idea IF there's a really, really good chance at the NCAA. If not, you might as well wait and "practice" until then. Who's not coming back this next year that really matters? I'd continue to red shirt him and build towards the future, but that's just my opinion.

[vuweathernerd]

Looks like all of us are going to see Boggs play this season (second half).  Lazerus article in today's Post says Bryce thinks we may not see Fernandez or Jakolis all yer so he needs to bring Ben Boggs in even though he would prefer to red shirt him.  One of the obvious reason is what IrishDawg said.  It will make for yet another guy graduating next year.  However, Boggs could be the guy who can put us over the top THIS year.
now
What ever Butler is adding next year we will match. We could have a two year run to the NCAAs.  Tomorrow's game will tell us if we are in that category.  We need to show our stuff in a hostile environment and at a big rival.

Here's the link to the Lazerus article:  http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/9186965-556/drew-awaiting-word-from-ncaa-clearinghouse.html

We will still have 22 games left (plus more if we win the 1st game in the HL tournamnent) when Ben becomes eligible.  There is every reason to pull the trigger now instead of waiting till next year.  Let's worry about 2 years from now 2 years from now.     

I think bringing in Boggs is a good idea IF there's a really, really good chance at the NCAA. If not, you might as well wait and "practice" until then. Who's not coming back this next year that really matters? I'd continue to red shirt him and build towards the future, but that's just my opinion.

the only seniors on the roster are shelton and stegelmann (the new walk-on). but since stegelmann's only playing in his first year, he'd still be eligible next year. so the only one we know we're losing is shelton.

[agibson]

Meaningless, certainly not statistically significant... but interesting

Butler RPI  193
Valpo RPI  57

Huh - interesting indeed (and, OK, yeah, probably meaningless).  Now I see Valpo 41, leading the league, Butler 178.  I suppose it's not until well into league play that these numbers settle down.

Relatimerpi.com has Valpo by 2, 72-70 (no surprise if their predictions are RPI-related).

Another random computer (oddsshark) has Valpo 76-72.

Sportsnetwork has Butler 72-71.

The Vegas lines still seem to have Butler by 5, 5.5 points.

Should be a good one!

[vu84v2]

The weird RPI ratings are from statistical insignificance.  Valpo has played 7 games, but only 5 against D1 teams.  One is against Arizona and one against Ohio State - so the computer thinks Valpo plays a top 5 team in 20% of its games and a top 20 team in 20% more.  Add in Akron and Duquesne being good mid-major teams and the result is high but not enough data points to be meaningful.  OK - way too much math probably for everyone...sorry.

Valpo needs to beat Butler and by 1 is just fine.

[valpo84]

For some reason, the video feed on HLN has stopped. Any one have any ideas what's going on? Thanks.

[chipper955]

I got a message saying that the stream was banned due to copyright infringement.  I guess the Horizon League didn't get permission from My INDY-TV.  Listening to the game on the radio now.  If there is any other video link please let me know.

[valpospartan]

One second we're warching the Butler game, on the live stream, and the next second NOTHING.
The HLN shows off line.  Bummer.

[humbleopinion]

The feed stopped just after I tripped over my HDMI cord.  I'm glad there's another explanation.

[valpo84]

How does that happen. HLN is in same town as 23? You'd think 23 wouldn't care that someone overseas is watching their mediocre announcers.

[valpo84]

Guess the good news we were up at half. But I can't even get a radio feed. Other thoughts besides WAKE?

[johnestuff]

1070thefan.com

[chipper955]

The video feed is working again on the Horizon League website.

[valpo84]

Thanks!